It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency.
The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries.
The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the upside of this system is felt by the entrepreneurs, investors and high-skill employees in tech and finance, while the downside is concentrated with low-skill workers whose jobs are offshored to lower wage countries.
The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
As such, this administration's policies are foolish, but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens.
That is something that in the current American political climate seems a nearly impossible sell.
> but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens.
Agreed. However, by imposing tariffs it is not the privileged who are going to be affected the most. The pain is felt most by the low-skill workers you mentioned earlier.
If the solution was instead along the lines of changing tax-brackets to tax the 'privileged' more, that might have better addressed the problem you mention in the beginning.
Not only are the poor going to bear the brunt of these tariffs, but this has been tried multiple times before, and failed. As in, catastrophic failure.
"Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it"
People should check out all the tariff insanity before and during the period of The Great Depression. That includes the justifications given.
By low-skilled workers do you mean the working class in general? If so it is my understanding that the overall goal is to help them at the same time as the privileged by shifting taxes at the same time as tariffs start to come down to create a re-balance of sorts in theory. Here [1] is a quick interview of Treasury Secretary Bessent by CNN Kaitlan Collins that I think covers this idea at least a little bit. I am curious to see how this plays out in practice. It's explained a little more in depth here [2] including how this was done in the past. I know videos are an unpopular medium on HN but I believe they are both worth the time to watch.
How can a lack of tariffs AND the presence of tariffs both hurt low skill workers. Secondly why do all of these countries have tariffs if they are so bad for the economy.
Taxing the rich is wishful thinking. They don't just give up wealth. They will simply look at it as an additional cost and hike the prices of their products up causing more inflation and that means even more trade deficit.
> Agreed. However, by imposing tariffs it is not the privileged who are going to be affected the most.
I thought the idea was that the billionaires would buy up all the crashed stocks then suddenly the tariffs would be lifted so that they can sell them off as soon as they recover. If so, the privileged will be affected the most but only in terms of how much money they'll make while everyone else suffers in the meantime.
Nobody has faith in the governments ability to put that money to good use. The US gov uses significant amounts of its budget to fund weapon development, promote weapon sales, change unfriendly foreign governments, support friendly foreign governments, and genocide troublesome foreign populations. Who will support raising more taxes to maintain and expand such efforts?
> However, by imposing tariffs it is not the privileged who are going to be affected the most. The pain is felt most by the low-skill workers you mentioned earlier.
I don't think this is necessarily true. 1 day into tariffs and things are probably the same for the low-skill workers. So far, the stockholders are the ones taking a beating. Sure, that includes some low income retirees, but for the working poor, I would bet that proportionally they consume fewer foreign made goods. They're not drinking imported booze.
> the upside of this system is felt by the entrepreneurs, investors and high-skill employees in tech and finance, while the downside is concentrated with low-skill workers whose jobs are offshored to lower wage countries.
This is true only if we impose barriers to geographic mobility, which we do via artificial scarcity of housing in our major cities.
If we produced housing like we did cars, all the "low-skill" people would be able to move to the city and find a job in the many other services that require human labor.
> the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
We don't need more high-quality education nor do we need to onshore. We need to deregulate the housing market, we make it easier to migrate to the US (funny enough, yes that would help with inequality). And I do agree we need better social systems.
There is no way to frame this admin's policies that makes it look reasonable. It's a Crony Clown Club show.
all the "low-skill" people would be able to move to the city and find a job
That this doesn't work is self-evident. Cities are currently filled with low skilled people. The vast majority of whom find no employment or employment in illegal activities.
Also:
We don't need more high-quality education
The idea that the world, and the US in particular, has no need for more and better education is laughable. Considering the fact that a lack of education is, arguably, what got the US into the current situation in the first place.
> If we produced housing like we did cars, all the "low-skill" people would be able to move to the city and find a job in the many other services that require human labor.
Why would they want to do that? Their priorities are myriad, but raising a family, having a degree of autonomy and space to themselves, and remaining a part of their community are all generally on the list.
What’s generally not on the list is living in a tiny rabbit hutch, owning nothing, working a dead-end service job, trying to raise a family in a city (or just not trying at all), and paying a higher price for the privilege.
> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
what you're saying in short is that the US economy has changed from Manufacture-based to Service-based, just like China.
People don't realize this but China is moving toward Service-based, naturally, as they raised their standard of living, thus education.
What's missing is not raising tax on Income but taxing Wealth: the super rich has their wealth sitting and growing unproductively (house appreciating is not productive, buying farm lands and rent it to other farmer isn't productive). Holding Limited version of a Ferrari isn't productive. Feel free to find other Assets.
Once the super rich completed their journey in this world, they will inherit billions to their kids, whose productivity output does not match the wealth they inherited, again, not productive.
> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
You are assuming that this administration has the same goals as you, just different ("foolish") methods of arriving there. I'd posit that they have very different goals that these methods are solving for.
This is a regressive tax that hurts low skill and low wage workers proportionately more since basic necessities of life are going to increase in price - it will be a much larger share of wallet than rich. This will not materially change purchasing behavior of very rich (save maybe waiting to buy a car due to increased pricecs)
It would be beneficial to increase taxes on the massive service economy and use the proceeds to subsidize lower wage industries.
In trumps first term after tariffs affected farmers, they had to subisidize them to keep them afloat. It didn't quite work the way it was intended. The trade war relief program in the first term spent $30bn keeping farmers afloat.
As a highly skilled and comparatively highly paid worker, I feel it is outrageous to suggest that I am within the class that needs to give up any reputed "wealth" when I am nowhere near the 1% who hold more than 50% of it. Such a claim just contributes to the wealth making of the 1% misers even more. Class warfare! I have already had to give up significant amounts of college and retirement savings from these tariffs.
You're arguing from a steady state. In point of fact the pain of the at-this-point-seemingly-inevitable recession is absolutely going to be concentrated on the working class. Those of us with savings and work flexibility will do just fine.
Even someone making a first principles argument for a revision of US trade policy should agree that this is insane.
The real pain will hit the working class harder, but the nominal pain will hit the capital class harder. Historically, this is how inequality unwinds. See: recessions, World War II. Let's hope to god that this is "just" a recession and doesn't cook into World War III.
> The obvious solution is... for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education
Not everyone is smart enough to land in the professional class. The US does its young population an enormous disservice by pushing low academic performers to go to college. There needs to be, somehow, a way for people to make a living with their hands, because for some people, that is genuinely all they are capable of.
> ... build out social systems...
The way you build out the social system is by enabling people in the working class to find genuine work that produces value, not some ditch-digging make-work government program. You don't take those jobs away by offshoring them.
I'm not saying I'm against offshoring in general or that I support Trump's tariffs - I don't. But it's not exactly controversial to point out that, since the end of the Cold War, the US prioritized the recommendations of economists over social cohesion and socially harmonious policy. A lot of people were thrown out of work and were left to fend for themselves. Many of them ended up as victims of the opioid epidemic. I'm not convinced that the prior system was completely peaches as cream.
> by enabling people in the working class to find genuine work that produces value, not some ditch-digging make-work government program
Like building out clean energy infrastructure?
Modern "ditch digging government programs" aren't necessarily low-skill. Even at the time, the new deal government programs were massively beneficial for society while also providing jobs for folks who needed it, at reasonable wages. Let's not shit on good government programs just because the right has been feeding us propaganda demonizing it for decades.
What happened to the information economy? And getting everyone trained on that type of skills? Nowadays education seems to be frowned upon by those in charge.
> As such, this administration's policies are foolish, but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens.
Very few people who work as full-time devs are so wealthy that they are totally insulated from general social decline.
Thanks for your comment, it explains why there seems to be a high degree of support for these measures in some quarters (was looking at the youtube comments to the liberation day speech) vs the consensus here at HN.
Let's suppose these policies are to the benefit of some Americans over other the benefit of other Americans. The open question now is: does it matter? does it really have an influence on the gross profit numbers? Will an isolationist foreign policy destroy the international order and how could this effect the US in return?
Tariffs will probably be bad, but on the other hand the old system didn't really work either in the long run. Perhaps he can bring some manufacturing back and I don't really believe consumer goods getting more expensive will be immediately felt. Could be wrong though.
Well, at least it might get interesting if you like crazy. I don't really believe those crying the loudest that they are particularly interested in combating inequality or are too interested in protecting low income people. Yes, maybe they need industries protected by tarrifs instead of cheap t-shirts. Maybe this perspective is rather stupid though. We will find out if that works or not. Economics projecting the next depression aren't really sources to trust either.
> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education
I'm always skeptical of the idea that we can just educate ourselves out of problems.
As I see it, that would only raise people's wage expectations which would make us even less competitive on a global market?
The need for blue collar workers doesn't just evaporate, and there's frankly only a finite demand for white collar workers. You give everyone expectations of a white collar job, and they end up working blue collar because there's no job for them, you're just setting society up for mass disappointment and resentment.
You give your average blue collar worker today a degree, are they actually more valuable to their current position? Probably not.
Your problem statement is missing "national security" angle. As I understand the current administration sees US de-industrialization as a threat to it and tariffs as a soution.
Yes! I've been consistently frustrated at both sides of the issue. It became salient for me when I read about how China had sanctioned three American drone manufacturers that were supplying Ukraine last year, and how it disrupted their supply chains and ultimately the war effort.
It is unacceptable for any other country to be able to do this to any part of the western-aligned military supply chain.
We needed a targeted policy -- I don't care about American cars except to the extent that those factories can be converted to aircraft and tank factories.
But the conversation has been frustratingly reduced to 'reshore low skill work' vs 'save my infinite trough of cheap plastic slop'.
I don't want to hear about tariffs bad, I want to hear about how subsidies are better or about how it doesn't matter anyway because of the structure of the Chinese economy (I saw it claimed without evidence that they depend on imports from places aligned with the west which is reassuring if substantiated).
There's an underlying issue everyone is dancing around.
I don't know why you are being down-voted, I think you raised some interesting points that add to the discussion.
National security / foreign interference hadn't occurred to me, and now I'm wondering what would happen to US economy and manufacturing if it was at war with China and or the EU over Taiwan and or Greenland.
How would US deal with Russian style sanctions? Can China simply ban all exports to the US?
In times of war, it probably is super important that a country and manufacture all essentials.
> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
You're proposing to tax an international supply chain. To tax something it has to be in your jurisdiction to begin with, and then you have several problems.
The most obvious of these is, what happens when the stuff just isn't there anymore? Suppose the US isn't competitive with China for manufacturing certain goods, e.g. because the US has a higher cost of living as a result of a purposeful housing shortage and then has higher labor costs, or for any other reason. So manufacturing moves to China, not just to sell to the US but also to sell to the domestic market in China and to Europe and India and the rest of the world. No part of those other transactions is in the US, so the US can't tax them and use the money to help the people in the US who used to be doing that manufacturing and selling those products to the rest of the world. Whereas if you sustain domestic manufacturing through some means then it exists and can make products to sell to the rest of the world because the fixed costs of establishing a manufacturing base can be covered by the domestic market and then it only has to compete in the international market on the basis of variable costs.
Next consider the industries where the US still makes stuff. You could tax those things because they're still in the US. But that makes the US less competitive in the global market for investment capital, which is highly mobile. If higher US taxes cause returns to be lower in the US than they are in other countries then investors go invest in the other countries instead, and then the thing stops being in the US. So that doesn't really work. You can see this in the case of e.g. Europe, which has even worse problems with the loss of manufacturing than the US.
Which leaves the activity where it's the other half of the transaction happening in the US, i.e. China is manufacturing something but the customer is in the US. That you could tax without a huge risk of capital flight, because companies can rarely change the location of their customers, but that still leaves you with two problems.
First, either of the countries participating in the transaction could levy the tax. In the case of China, then they can levy a tax (or some tax-equivalent) to only such an extent that it consumes the surplus in the transaction attributable to the competitive advantage of their country. China can do this because they have a lower cost of living etc., which doesn't work for the US. But because they do that, the US can't tax that portion of the surplus, which was the gain from moving manufacturing to China.
And second, a tax on imports is called a tariff. Which the US can impose to tax that portion of the transaction surplus that isn't attributable to the foreign country's cost advantage, i.e. the preexisting transaction surplus where it costs $8 to make something someone is willing to pay $10 for regardless of where it was made. But tariffs are the thing you don't like.
OR use borrowing (e.g. current account deficit). If government spending drives productivity growth then it’s a net positive?
OR tax wealth. If most return on international capital investment is being stored in the US, taxing this effectively taxes profits on international sales???
> for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education
Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee?
Imagine if the highest earning jobs required immense physical endurance and strength. Nobody would argue that everyone can do that. It would be obvious that only a subset of people are capable of doing those jobs. For some reason, with intellectual labor, we are able to pretend that there is no threshold and everyone can do it. It's an idea that makes people feel good but what if it's just not true? Can everyone be made above average in something with enough education?
If we're creating an economy where decent jobs only exist for people in the top ~20% of the ability curve, how do we handle that? How do we maintain a democracy? Sometimes people float the idea of UBI, but that could turn out extremely dystopian with a huge underclass of UBI-collecting people in a state of hopelessness and boredom. That doesn't work much better for democracy than a huge underclass of under-employed and unemployed people.
To make matters worse: the fact that our past strategy works so well for increasing GDP means it it tends to inflate assets, including things like housing prices. The end result is a country that looks, to more than half its inhabitants, like a vacation town where outside capital inflates the cost of everything way above what local wages can support. It might not be a coincidence that San Francisco, New York, and other capitals of high margin high skill industries have real estate prices that lock ordinary people out of even "starter homes."
I absolutely do not support Trump's execution here -- it's ham-fisted, reckless, and badly thought out. If we are exiting this neoliberal model, Trump's exit from it is a little bit like Biden's exit from Afghanistan. Still it is obvious to me that the current system is not working for more than half of Americans. It's fantastic for the top ~20% or so and leaves everyone else behind.
We can't keep doing that if we want a democracy. If we exclude 50-80% of the population from anything meaningful or any economic stability, we will get one of two things. Either we'll get the kind of totalitarian state that is required to maintain that kind of inequality in perpetuity, or we will get a string of revolutions or a failed state. People will not just sit around in hopelessness forever. Eventually they will be recruited by demagogues. Ironically Trump has been one of the most effective at this. I'm sure more will eventually show up though. There's a big market for them.
> If we're creating an economy where decent jobs only exist for people in the top ~20% of the ability curve, how do we handle that?
The most important thing here is to do something about the cost of living, i.e. the price of necessities.
Housing isn't inherently as expensive as it is in the US, it's made that way on purpose. Healthcare likewise. If you only make $25,000/year and housing is $20,000/year and healthcare is $12,500/year, you're screwed. If you only make $25,000/year and housing is $10,000/year and healthcare is $5000/year, you're not.
I’ve reflected that resource extraction jobs often end up in the high wage / low educational investment category, and I’ve wondered if that motivates the whole “annex Greenland” bit as much as “securing critical resources” does…
Lowering the cost of high-quality education makes it more accessible, which isn't the same thing as "accessible for all".
But lowering the cost of tuition also have positive effect on economy, because people who are starting their career will have more money roughly at the same age where they will want to spend more money. They are figuring their living situation, they are trying to figure out what independence means, a lot of people will want to start families at the first 10 years of their career.
If you paid your tuition fees for 15 years, then you most likely already figured where you live/had kids and the additional money will go into savings for retirement. It's will not be "buyer" money, that will go to pay for products and services, and so it wouldn't go towards someone's paycheck.
> Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee?
You still need education to become a nurse, caregiver, welder or kindergarten teacher. And the right subsidies (free education) allows people to make the switch.
Will the US be able to survive as a superpower while severely cutting down the top 20%'s standard of living? They could simply defect somewhere that offers them a similar position in society as the US, similar to what the US has done to the rest of the world.
> Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee?
Agree with this.
Also, what if there's just not a need for it?
Even if "everyone" in some abstract sense is capable of "high-skill" jobs, how many are really needed? Look at software jobs alone and the onslaught that is the current labor market.
I think there's nowhere near enough "work" ("real" or otherwise) to go around to maintain the level of employment necessary to support the population that we have at the costs that we have.
I don't think any sort of "UBI" (assuming you mean direct cash payments) is a realistic solution, either. People need to "work" in some organized fashion to avoid the common negative outcomes associated with "welfare" scenarios.
I legitimately, unironically, support the kinds of "fake" jobs that were prevalent in years' past (day in the life TikToks come to mind, Gov jobs where people send three emails a week, etc).
I guess in another sense I do support "UBI", as long as it's paired with the illusion of "work."
I understand this seems nonsensical, but just from practical experience it makes total sense to me.
Here's an example.
Years back I worked a software gig at a large non-"tech" F500 company. Much of the programming work there was extremely dull--occasional maintenance of large barely functional enterprise Java messes, writing a few SQL queries a week for wretched multi-table joins requiring all sorts of nasty casting and hacks as "normalization" was an alien concept to the original author and the like. Realistically, folks worked on this stuff perhaps 10 hours a week?
Anyway, I know a few people hit with a layoff that worked there a long time (decade+) and now they're back in the Thunderdome looking for work as "developers". The people in question are nearing retirement but presumably not there, for one reason or another.
Hows this going to work for them? I'm not denigrating them, but having worked with these folks, they're not going to be tearing into broken pipelines, adding React components, configuring Docker builds or whatever--there's a skill mismatch and the workload I've seen at roles lately is just so far beyond the pace, scope, and "scale" that there's no way they'd make it, if they can even get an interview at all.
In this example, would it be best to give them "UBI" payments, or some other slow near-sinecure where they have dignity?
This is the kind of side debates you get by framing it as “low-skill” versus “high-skill”. Whether the “~20% of the ability” curve should help the poors from their apparent attraction to demagogues.
> Imagine if the highest earning jobs required immense physical endurance and strength. Nobody would argue that everyone can do that. It would be obvious that only a subset of people are capable of doing those jobs.
"pfff it's easy-peasy, just go attend a (literal) bootcamp, you'll be fine, anyone can do it"
----
> Still it is obvious to me that the current system is not working for more than half of Americans. It's fantastic for the top ~20% or so and leaves everyone else behind.
god yes
The elephant in the room here: there is no money for anyone not in the top20%, it all goes into their pockets and they just sit on it, leaving only scraps for everyone else, tax the rich, anyone with more than x% of the median amount of wealth should have everything above that taken away and redistributed to everyone, possibly by means such as UBI/welfare/etc!
But we ain't gonna get any of that without revolution. And honestly it feels like Trump's getting us closer and closer to the brink of that.
There is a simple mechanism to distribute the money from the rich back to middle class / poor.
Its called taxes.
Basically, Trump shouldn't have done tariff and instead just taxed the rich after a certain point.
Oh wait, I think that sounds familiar.
Of course I am not saying tax them 90% and of course, you might say that there are loopholes. How are we going to distribute money from stocks? And you are right. But the thing trump is doing isn't working or maybe its working as intended by trump being a chatgpt wrapper.
If even trump literally just sat and did nothing, it would have been more beneficial.
I mean, Europe also has a high tax rate, its not that bad to have a high tax rate if you genuinely want equality, though I presume nobody really wants that. And Lobbying is legal in america which really shocks me.
I had said it time and time again. Trust is like a glass ball,once broken it can't be recovered. I feel like people are however still in shock of that glass ball being fallen and are in disbelief, But you guys gotta know whom y'all elected is doing harm.
Polymarket and even goldman sachs etc. are predicting 60% chance of US recession
Nope. It's true that free trade WAS hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole. Now free trade is hurting USA economy and that's why USA play against the rules they were promoting for so long.
Free trade is not hurting the economy. American domestic policy impacting the distribution of the produce of the economy is, even in times of strong aggregate economic performance, hurting the felt effects of the economy on large swathes of the population, but throwing up protectionist policies that collapse both the global and local production possibilities curves doesn't help that; it just shrinks the pie without doing anything to deal with the bad distribution which makes people feel like the pie is shrinking even when it is growing. The results you can expect from that should be obvious without experiencing them, but it looks like we are all going to learn about them through painful experience real soon now.
And how do you propose we do that? By giving schools even more money at taxpayer's expense?
> raising taxes at the high end
40.1% of US taxpayers on the low end of income distribution pay no income tax, 16.5% pay neither income nor payroll taxes. Top 1% pays 40.4% of all income tax (while holding about 30.8% of net worth, 13.8% of the total is held by top 0.1%). Top 1% (with the possible exception of a few billionaires) already pays through their nose.
Funding public universities and giving them the mission to keep tuition costs low. Public universities are capable of providing enormous value to students, but over the past two decades their funding has been substantially cut. The result is that those schools became more reliant on expensive out-of-state tuition, which in turn means competing with private institutions for students, which in turn means building more luxuries (awesome gyms) and not focusing on value for money.
What people don't discuss about the taxation is that rich people will universally pundit, preach, undermine, subvert, and squirm out of any law to tax themselves more. If you are preaching more taxes thinking it will affect the politically well-connected, it will be unwound and castrated by the politically well-connected. Or just deflected into somebody else's responsibility.
In that case, someone else is going to be holding the bill that you might not have intended.
I hate discussion of percentages, because every percentage seems reasonable by itself. It's the summation of the percentages that politicians have no interest in discussing.
In fact, it should be a requirement of government to sum the percentages of federal,state,medicare,social security, sales, resort, fuel, local levies, internet sales into one effective percentage that a given citizen in a given city has to pay.
Has anyone calculated that number for themselves? I've been collecting all my transactions and taxes to figure out what percentage of my income actually goes to taxes.
==40.1% of US taxpayers on the low end of income distribution pay no income tax==
According to 2022 IRS data, average deductions for those who itemized totaled $43,686 in tax year 2022 [0]. The 2022 bottom two quintiles of income were under $44k [1]. That means in 2022 rich people AND poor people didn't pay income taxes on their first $45k of income. Is that unfair to rich people?
Worth noting, the 25 richest Americans paid an average effective tax rate of 13%, as of 2018 when IRS data was leaked [2].
==Top 1% (with the possible exception of a few billionaires) already pays through their nose.==
"While average effective tax rates barely changed in the US from 1945 to 2015, the average tax rates of high-income households fell sharply—from about 50 percent to 25 percent for the highest income 0.01 percent and from about 40 percent to about 25 percent for the top 1 percent." [3]
If the average effective rate hasn't changed, but the effective rate paid by the top 1% has fallen by ~40%, how is the difference made up? The 99% pay more.
this glib analysis neglects the part where decades of plans and budgets have been addressing " build out social systems" while simultaneously building crony networks of political appointees, guarding the hen house. Short term pain is loudly announced for the purpose of defeating the political opponent, not addressing the long standing inefficiencies in a swollen and obese wealth exchange centered in the USA.
tons of cynical one-liners from partisans drown out efforts to really examine the impacts over medium and long term. A horrible problem with this move is that it is not entirely wrong from a fundamentals point of view? It certainly creates winners and losers, no question about it.
The political class and plutocrats always wins regardless of the election outcome. The two party system guarantees they come out unscathed regardless of their jousting.
So basically: the solution is "do more of the same".
I suppose that's the point, people were tired of hearing the same old crap by leftists who fancy themselves as smarter, as their quality of life continued to drop, so they figured "screw it let's try the opposite".
How much do you expect to raise taxes to cover that gap? You double my taxes and I’m in the welfare line.
Further, and this is not referenced enough - the US must rollover ~9 trillion in treasuries this year. The lower the interest rate to do that, the better. Otherwise it increase the deficit even more.
The only way this ends is one of two paths - a path similar to what we are on; default.
We may not like this one, but default is world destroying because of the broad use of the Dollar around the globe.
Taxes should be raised on the rich. Elon Musk alone is worth $330 billion. There is plenty of money to pay for what we need. The question is whether we can muster the political will to do it.
From what I understand, de minimis exemption has also been removed.
That is a huge, huge deal. It effectively means that all goods imported from China will be slapped with a 30% import tax, as soon as said goods arrive the US border / customs.
Usually what happens then, is that the courier will pay that tax, and then bill the recipient later on - as well as charge some fee/fees for the work done.
This is why in some European countries, that $1 item from China with free shipping can end up costing $10, because you're paying $0.25 in VAT or import taxes, and $10 to the shipping courier for doing the paperwork.
If that is the case in the US, I fully expect total chaos and mayhem when all the Temu / AliExpress/ Wish customers start receiving extra bills for their orders.
(That's just from the most obvious consumer example...then you have pretty much everything else. Goods, commodities, etc.)
So it is even worse, you either pay $25 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher. Then later it moves up to $50 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher.
a $1 item with $1 shipping will end up costing you as much as $52 after June!
> This is why in some European countries, that $1 item from China with free shipping can end up costing $10, because you're paying $0.25 in VAT or import taxes, and $10 to the shipping courier for doing the paperwork.
Not the big China exporters, not any more. They all include taxes in the price on your country specific web site, ship to their warehouses inside the EU, handle taxes and your local courier just delivers.
Now if you're talking DHL yes, they have you fill forms upon forms and charge you for the forms you didn't ask for. But if that happens, no one will have time to process all the forms so private imports from China will simply ... halt for a while. Until Temu/AliExpress/etc sort out for the US the same system they use in the EU.
If in the US, I'd hold on any direct purchases from China for 3-6 months.
> So it is even worse, you either pay $25 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher. Then later it moves up to $50 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher.
Hah. That's DHL commission territory :) Definitely hold from direct purchases until Temu sorts it out for you.
> Until Temu/AliExpress/etc sort out for the US the same system they use in the EU.
The thing is, the EU specifically set up a structure to make this easier for sellers and transparent for customers (the "import one-stop shop") and I don't see the US government doing any effort to make importations more seamless.
If I buy something from amazon.co.jp or Apple and it arrives from Japan or China with DHL/UPS, I don't do anything at all in Poland. It's all transparent, I just get the package for the price on the website.
I suspect that this $25/50 per item policy is to prevent people from claiming a lower value than the actual price of the item. I've received international packages marked "gift" with a value of $10 that I had paid much more for.
I doubt the US will even manufacture substitutes for most of the things I liked and ordered from AliExpress. People with hobbies primarily supplied by Chinese manufacturing (like mine- electronics, 3D printing, FPV drones) are just going to be paying more for the same thing. There's no way we'll get an American substitute for niche products- all the US chip fabs are going to be filled with orders for higher dollar parts.
Note that the fact sheet says per item, not per shipment. So there doesn't even seem to be a way to make one big purchase of several items to pay a single fee. They will hit you for every item in the shipment.
Quick edit: I also note that the fact sheet makes a distinction between things sent through international post vs. other means. If you send via UPS/FedEx/DHL there will be regular customs fees (34%?), and through post you will have the $25/50 per item fee. So I will definitely have to pay attention to the shipping method for anything bought from AliExpress from now on.
Quick edit 2: I literally have a PicoCalc from ClockworkPi coming in the mail in a few days- I guess we'll see if DHL charges me any extra fees.
Realistically, the $25 minimum is to cover the costs of handling the imports (with some premium), so it doesn't make sense to charge it for every item in a batch separately.
Great. AliExpress was the RadioShack of 2025. No way I’m spending $25+ for a strip of SMD resistors, and I expect to never see them available in the US at a price that makes sense as a hobbyist. This isn’t helping anyone, will prevent a lot of prototyping, and just be a bad experience in life. Thanks for ruining the fun of the last 5-10 years of DIY electronics golden age.
I had plans to build some animatronic Halloween decorations for this year over the summer. I’m not going to spend hundreds to thousands of dollars on parts that nominally cost less than $50.
My own pain is minor though compared to everyone I know who uses Temu and other things to basically outfit their life. This will be insanely regressive as they have the least to spend on “on brand” products, which themselves are imported too. This is like “super sales tax for the poor.” Me, I’ll just save my money and wait for the next president to undo the mess. My buddies not as successful monetarily as me? Their quality is life is going down the drain.
This is what happened in Sweden about 10 years ago, when they started charging a $7 "administrative fee" on all packages privately imported from China. Prices for resistors went from $1 for a pack of a hundred to $8. As a student at the time, it effectively made the hobby non-viable over night because it got too expensive.
Lately, there have been some domestic actors filling in the gap. But it's still a significant cost increase compared to the glory days.
De minimis exemption expiring has been a planned thing for years through administrations of both parties. Trump admin has been delaying the already planned expiration during the Biden years to use as a negotiating carrot.
Basically it just means Temu/Aliexpress/Etc. will ship their goods to the US in bulk instead of bypassing customs on individual small orders, and distribute from domestic warehouses, having to now compete with US producers who do the same thing.
It does completely kill any business built on dropshipping individual orders from chinese factories without ever touching inventory however.
I'm inclined to believe they're already doing something like this. I don't shop them but my wife uses Shein and Temu pretty often, and commented last year that more and more stuff was shipping from the US rather than overseas now.
In Europe, Alibaba has their own warehouse in the Netherlands. I wonder if that's to be able to do a single "international" import. Could the same happen in the US?
Aliexpress does that as well, with a warehouse in Hungary. They ship the products there, import them en masse as a business, then relabel and send them off to the recipients.
They may be compelled to do that; there's 1.3 million packages from Chinese retailers a day coming in through the Netherlands, but since they're all individual packages, they fall under a threshold for import taxes. There's now calls to drop that threshold so that people pay import taxes for small items as well, and / or to compel Temu and co to stop shipping individual packages but do it in bulk.
Courier will only pay the tax if it's a DDP solution, and then bill it back to the actual merchant. FedEx, DHL, and UPS provide this as an option. If it goes USPS, or no DDP solution is in place, it's going DDU and it will simply be stuck in a sufferance warehouse or at the local post office until the recipient comes in and pays the bill.
I think price uncertainty is already hitting eBay. A few days ago I looked at the price of cheap musical instruments (a student violin and a trumpet that each cost $25 several years ago) and the low price is now $129. Some things seem to have disappeared almost entirely from eBay (most small portable ozone generators). Maybe this is temporary until sellers figure it all out.
>> If that is the case in the US, I fully expect total chaos and mayhem when all the Temu / AliExpress/ Wish customers start receiving extra bills for their orders.
All three of those stores are very popular in my part of Europe. So there must be some workaround. Based on your edit I would guess that they would import a bunch of orders in one shipment to make the 'per shipment' charge small per item/order.
Yeah, the stopping drugs thing is just performative propaganda. It’s really about the money, and the attempt to punish China (which will in fact mostly hurt Americans as much or more, anyways). If it were about the drugs only, there wouldn’t be such punitive measures, and the press release wouldn’t mention the fact that China doesn’t have a de minimus exception.
crazy thought, maybe a $1 item shouldn’t be shipped from overseas at great expense to the environment? 5 years ago all anybody would talk about is the environment and now people are burning down EVs and complaining that they’ll have to pay more for a cheap $1 shirt they don’t need to be moved 6000 or more miles? make this make sense.
Sure. Modern Chinese RoRo vessels fit more than 1 shirt on them. The average shipping manifest to America looks more like 125,000 shirts, 10,000 tons displacement of natural gas, 40,000 sex toys, 20,000 Macbooks and a few dozen merchant marines making the trip. The "great cost to the environment" was manufacturing these products. The carbon footprint for shipping linens around the world is negligible, and cheaper than buying American-made.
It doesn't take a genius to see that this isn't an environmental issue, China will fuel up their boats regardless and take their surplus elsewhere. This is about American businesses outright failing to compete in the free market in places that matter, like car manufacturing and $1 tee shirt factories.
>> If that is the case in the US, I fully expect total chaos and mayhem when all the Temu / AliExpress/ Wish customers start receiving extra bills for their orders.
All three of those stores are very popular in my part of Europe. So there must be some workaround.
Well, the good news is almost nobody is gonna like this, so I don't anticipate it lasting beyond Trump's presidency, assuming he makes it 4 years at this rate. The bad news is that even after tariffs are removed, it will take years for prices to recover, if they ever do.
Actually one policy that Biden kept in place after the 2020 elections was the Trump Tariffs.
I think we are underestimating how popular protectionism is with progressives, it may turn out to be an unusual alliance between disaffected voters on the far right and left outnumbering free trade advocates in the center of both parties.
They're going to try to make sure we never have fair elections again. I'm not saying they're going to succeed, but they're sure as hell going to try, which is terrifying.
Do you expect their annual turnover to go up? They might get a bigger slize of the pie but the pie itself is getting smaller.
Pre trade AMZN was down 7%
Down 6% in premarket, will have to wait and see but likely wont help them much as tariffs will impact a significant amount of their products regardless.
In addition to what everyone else has said, if Europe goes through with the new "Big Tech tax" and/or tariffs on digital services, AWS would presumably take a big hit.
The practical takeaway is that the average household will spend $3,500-4,000 more as a result of the tariffs. Clothes, furniture, toys will be about 30% more expensive, electronics will be about 25% more expensive, tires and jewelry about 15% more expensive, and industrial buyers are going to get hosed when they buy equipment.
There were major carve-outs for the auto industry (yay Michigan) and petrochemical industries (yay Gulf Coast); they’ll still get hosed on equipment but will mostly escape increases in cost of materials. Imported cars/trucks aren’t directly affected either.
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Meta discussion:
I can't do an analysis on the de minimis situation, I don't know of any public datasets that would allow such an analysis, and it's obvious that it will have extremely complex effects (and therefore, any first-order analysis would be very low-quality).
Note on ChatGPT-4.5 "Deep Research": I spot-checked the calculations for HS codes using my own research and the numbers seemed reasonably close to my own. https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/explore/treemap is an invaluable resource for this kind of analysis. ChatGPT fumbled the bag on HS 30: Pharmaceutical products, by not excluding products listed in Annex II, which overestimated total tariffs by about 6% ($30 billion), but the net effect on households is still in the right ballpark (+/- 20%).
Edit: This isn't one of those simple low-effort posts that say "omg look what ChatGPT said". I'm capable of doing this analysis on my own, and I checked ChatGPT's work for the largest contributing categories of goods. Sometimes we disagreed by 10% or so, but overall the results checked out except for Pharmaceuticals, which I caught and didn't repeat misinformation in my "practical effects" tl;dr. The only way it is significantly wrong is if both myself and ChatGPT missed some large tariff category and assumed it was small - that could raise the real costs above the numbers in the analysis - but I checked all the largest categories that ChatGPT identified as well as all the largest categories from our largest trade partners shown by the Atlas of Economic Complexity, so it's somewhat unlikely that happened.
I purposefully didn't include 2nd and 3rd order effects (e.g. chained CPI) because they are usually relatively small, massively uncertain (my analysis would be worth as much as dog poop on a shoe) and those higher-order effects take too long to manifest. It's not worth predicting costs out 2+ years because the political environment is far too unstable. Just today, the U.S. Senate voted to block all the Canadian tariffs and end the "state-of-emergency" that this executive order is standing on. Front-page diplomacy or private back-room deals could make Trump adjust tariffs up or down on various nations multiple times this year. Who knows what the situation will be 6 months from now, let alone 5 years from now when global supply chains and pricing elasticity might re-normalize. The fact that ChatGPT didn't include these effects is a point in its favor, not a glaring oversight.
I'm not complaining about downvotes but if you are downvoting this, please let me know why so that I can improve. I put a lot of work into this far beyond just typing some crap into ChatGPT and I think these numbers add a lot to the discussion.
> This is why in some European countries, that $1 item from China with free shipping can end up costing $10
This is what strikes me about these new tariffs... for all the concern about how it's going to impact the US economy (and I don't doubt it will), this is STILL far, far, less protectionism than literally every other country in the entire world. Donald Trump's justification for all this is that the U.S. is propping up the entire world economy to it's own detriment, and I'm not sure he's necessarily wrong here.
"less protectionism than literally every other country in the entire world"
I ordered from Temu and it's shipped from China and arrives at my door with my local sales tax applied -- because Temu abides by Canadian law -- but otherwise with no additional fees. Got a pair of headphones and a three timer device yesterday for $10 CAD.
Or you know, Trump's constant yapping about Canada's diary tariff. In reality the US ships 4x more dairy to Canada tariff free than the reverse, and we, by design, do not target sending dairy to the US. But Trump takes advantage of the poorly informed and/or stupid, and it works amazingly.
>U.S. is propping up the entire world economy to it's own detriment
If you're sitting in the richest large country in the world, literally at the height of its economic accomplishment, and you really buy it when someone tells you that you're the victim, you might be profoundly misinformed and with literally zero context of reality.
The US has an amazing amount to fall, and it's going to happen. And when you're working on the assembly line doing extremely low value work, having been ostracized by the entire planet, enjoy how you made the libs pay.
The bit I love is that countries with which the US has a trade surplus aren't getting the opposite of a tariff (a grant, I guess) on their imports to the US, they aren't getting zero tariffs on their imports to the US, they're getting 10% tariffs.
Heard Island and McDonald Islands, two Australian territories inhabited only by penguins, get singled out for a 10% tariff.
Norfolk Island, an Australian community of 3000 with no exports to the US, gets its own 29% tariff. They're expecting a tourism boost from the publicity.
"To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4.
Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al., 2023), but estimates of the elasticity vary. To be conservative, studies that find higher elasticities near 3-4 were drawn on. The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25."[0]
LLMs are basically just good at sourcing ideas from the internet. Me thinks this just means that this tariff idea exists on the internet, especially since grok, chatgpt, etc all come up with the same idea. We used to not have income taxes and funded the govt with tariffs so this probably isn't a new concept despite media outlets pretending like it is.
It is really silly to say that because an LLM gave a similar approach a single time and someone took a screencap of it without full context, that Elon and Trump are sitting in the whitehouse asking Grok what to. This level of hyperbole is why reading about anything to do with the two of them is really exhausting.
Wow. So they came up with zero-effort estimates of the tariff rate which would balance the trade deficit. The method is like something you'd be asked to criticise in A level economics.
Then they incorrectly labelled these numbers as reciprocal tarrifs implying this is what other countries charge the US.
The worst of it is that all of this misinformation will be happily accepted as truth by so many people. It's now going to be almost impossible to have people realise the truth, especially those people who support Trump. Ugh.
Are we factoring in digital/service trades? For example, Netflix is in Vietnam. There are many Netflix subscribers in Vietnam. Does that get factored into the trade deficit? Or is it only physical goods that get factored in?
Vietnam uses many US services such as Microsoft Office, Netflix, ChatGPT, Facebook ads, etc. This is revenue that directly go into the pockets of American companies.
No services, only goods. This is according to @JamesSurowiecki on Twitter, one of the first to reverse engineer the equation for how they’re coming up with the numbers. So Office, Netflix, etc wouldn’t count against the deficit.
Of course not. The entire time Trump is railing against the deficit, he's talking only about goods. He wants to bring back manufacturing to America, didn't you hear?
I see how the tariff numbers may have been calculated. But why is it done that way? What is the rationale behind such a calculation? Is this a way to balance the existing trade deficits? How does it work?
Would appreciate you (or anybody else) shed some light on the economics of the thing.
The label "tariffs charged to the US" is just straight-up wrong, either due to incompetence or malice (likely to justify the high tariffs).
But basing the tariffs on import/export ratio makes sense if your goal is to be a net exporter with every country, as it discourages imports until that's the case. It's still somewhat arbitrary though; my guess is that the White House is pursuing that goal mostly for political, not economical reasons.
The Eu will take care of that by slapping taxes/tariffs or regulations, and the rest of the world will also do the same. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Interesting. While I think these tariffs are a bad idea, I'm not qualified to fully pass judgement. However, knowing Trump, when I saw the numbers I instantly suspected they would be wrong.
Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US.
The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced only he can solve their issues. I don’t hold out hope for that.
If Jan 6th didn't dissuade people, I don't think anything will.
Additionally, his base will not blame him, they will swallow whichever of the many narratives the propagandists are currently cooking up that suites their fancy.
I disagree with this. Jan 6th didn’t affect 99% of peoples lives directly. It was clearly bad, but few people saw impacts in their own lives.
Higher prices and a possible recession will affect every person in the country and even globally.
His MAGA base might not blame him, but that’s only like 30-40% of the electorate. The other 60-70% won’t be happy if their lives are negatively impacted.
One thing worth noting is that congress isn't pleased about the executive branch high jacking the powers of appropriations from them (i.e. imposing a tax on the people in the form of a tariff).
Jan 6 was far from many people's lives. It was a philisophical debate at most. When they get to the stores to buy groceries and they are 30-50% higher and their next TV, laptop the same way, they will realize that voting for an Oompa Loompa was a bad idea, and will want him out.
Spoke to a friend who is a big Trump supporter just yesterday - his view is that we shouldn't react to short term impact, these policies and tariffs should be viewed and judged in the long term. These tariffs will remake american manufacturing. I dont know if thats the current faux news talking point.
Folks who try to make "the insurrection!" a thing don't really have a good read on the pulse of the average American. This is a failed branding attempt for what amounted to an unscheduled tour around the Capitol.
The same people pushing "Jan 6th" can normally take home the gold medal in mental gymnastics when discussing the events ending with numerous American cities being on fire just 6 months prior. Multi-city infernos were "mostly peaceful" protests, but when a Republican is shot by Capitol security, it's an "insurrection."
> There are no out of work olive farmers in the US.
Is that because we can't grow olives here, or because we don't have federal subsidies propping up a domestic olive industry that can compete with corn and soy?
I ready don't know the details well enough there, but it feels like this could just be selection bias at play.
You can grow olives in the US and there are some farms in CA. The quantities produced are orders of magnitude off though and given the time it takes to grow olive orchards we cannot replace our imports of olives in a reasonable time period.
There's a lot of examples like this. Coffee, and bananas come to mind. You can only grow those in Hawaii, or maybe Flordia, and there's absolutely not enough land to sate our imports. The whole theory behind international trade is that some countries do things well and others don't. In the case of food the reality is more that others can't.
The exact growing conditions for olive production aren’t common in the US, so most of the production comes from California - west of Sacramento and south along the San Joaquin river. There are a lot of barriers in bringing specialty crops to market related to know-how and contracting sale of product, so even in other areas where growth may be possible it may be infeasible.
US does produce olive oil, particularly in states like California, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, and Hawaii. So you do have a few options:
1. Support local producers. There are high-quality olive oils made right here in the US that might surprise you.
2. Work with Tunisia manufacturers to move their production to the US
3. If you don't want to support local producers, pay extra and enjoy your Tunisia olive oil as much as you want
4. If politics is the real issue for you, move to Tunisia, there is no "orange man" there
That said, refusing to support local production out of principle isn’t really a solution.
I don't know how much you know about olive oil, but it comes from olives, which grow on olive trees. Olive trees are famously long-lived and, together with the very specific types of land that they grow on, they represent extremely persistent and valuable investments for the people who produce olive oil.
US consumption of olive oil is more than 10x domestic production of olive oil. It is not possible to spin up olive orchards in even a medium timespan as the trees take many years to grow. It’s not about wanting to support domestic producers, it legitimately is not possible.
You are right about olive oil. So why did he do it? The trade imbalance with Tunisia. Why is there are trade imbalance with Tunisia? US consumers have money to buy products from Tunisia, Tunisian consumers don't have the ability to afford products from the US. Why can't Tunisian's afford US products? This is the central question for every country in the trade war and it has myriad factors, but two of the biggest are: A higher cost US dollar, suppression of wages in countries like Tunisia (and Germany, and China, etc).
>Onagri data show that Spain is the leading destination for Tunisian olive oil, with 47.4 percent flowing to Spanish ports, followed closely by Italy at 42.2 percent and the United States in third at 33.8 percent.
So, we can and do grow olives here in California, but it is a very small industry compared Spain, Italy, etc.
However, one thing we absolutely cannot grow here in any sort of money-making way, is coffee. So 32% tariffs on imports of coffee from Indonesia.... when we do not even export coffee.
California produced 1.94 million gallons of olive oil in 2023. That same year the US used ~98.5 million gallons of olive oil. There just isn't enough space to produce that much olive oil in CA much less produce it profitably or in ways that wouldn't devastate the environment. And all that is ignoring that it takes around 10 years for an olive tree to get to consistent production.
We get a lot of titanium from China. That's because the largest natural Ti deposits are in Eurasia. That is due to geology, not politics, and now US companies who need it (read: high performance transport, medical products) will pay substantially more for it.
>> There are no out of work olive farmers in the US.
I'm not sure this is true. I buy olive oil specifically from California. It's niche but could be larger if they weren't competing with lower overseas labor costs.
Not 50 times larger which is what it would need to be to supply the current domestic consumption. California only produced 1.94 million gallons of olive oil in 2023, that same year the US used ~98.5 million gallons of olive oil.
Even if we could snap our fingers and create the orchards out of thin air there's not enough land and water to grow 50x our current production. Then where's the worker population coming from? They're also trying to drive overall immigration to essentially zero.
According to Trump Tunisia has to buy olive oil from you for the same amount of money that you spent on Tunisias olive oil. Otherwise one side has a trade deficit and that's unfair!
Except none of that 38% extra in price is going to the farmers. It's a tax not extra profit for the producer. Crazy how many people still do not know how tariffs work.
If anything those Tunisian folks would have to reduce the price to compete. The tariffs go straight to the US coffers at the customs, nothing to do with the farmers.
Why wouldn't they? They can immediately raise prices by however many percent the tariff is. Probably a bit less because higher price causes lower demand. So let's say raise by half of the tariff.
Maybe it will partially offset the increased cost of everything they need to buy and sell olives.
> what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure
You must not have read many of the comments here. Way too many people are trying to defend this just because they don't want to have to admit that they were wrong on Trump being better for the economy.
Why do you think it's a good idea to buy olive oil from Tunisia instead of from California? Are you aware of how much CO2 is released to ship a trivial commodity across the atlantic ocean?
Just a guess as he said his favorite olive oil so could it be one tastes better? I imagine like many other things taste can be effected by the region it is grown in.
As for your other point in a perfect world we would all care about global climate change but many are not going to eat something they don’t like to do their part. But really cargo ships are small fish in such a big problem. Ban private jets or cruise ships would be way more beneficial.
Help me understand your viewpoint here - is the assumption that an entire ship is dedicated to shipping trivial commodities and the cargo isn't co-mingled with anything else? At the same time, what isn't counted as a "trivial commodity", and should ships _only_ be used for those items?
The orange man is saying: "Looks like you are sending a lot of $$$ to those olive oil farmers in Tunisia. With my tariffs you now have two choices at your disposal: either you keep buying their Olive oil but then you are going to have to give me $$$ as well to pay for our national debt. You are going to buy less of it; and help your country in the process. Alternatively, you can decide that maybe you don't need olive oil all that much. We have this amazing product called 'corn oil' which is produced locally and is now comparatively less expensive, buy that instead and support your local farmer. Choice is yours".
Maybe you don't like either of these choices; but at the same time; saying "I believe that having cheap access to product produced halfway across the globe is a god given right to American people; how dare you imposing me to make such a choice" is part of the reason why we need 13 earth to sustain the modern US lifestyle.
I am really not a Trump supporter at all. But at the same time the gradual reduction of tariffs has been a key factor of increasing global trade; which in turn is a key component of the increase of CO2 emissions. Finding a way to dampen a bit the international component and making sure that locally sourced products and services are not affected seems not that bad.
The whole "decide that maybe you don't need olive oil that much" thing is what's going to crush the economy in the US. The problem is that demand does not shift to alternative supplies elastically. It takes years and sometimes decades to build an alternate supply chain for some industries. So what you're saying is that an entire generation of children in the US are going to have to grow up materially worse off than their parents and grandparents. And that's assuming that a bunch of businesses magically start overnight to fill the enormous gaps caused by a lack of access to international supply chains. If you look at other countries such as in South America or for example Italy where there are huge protective tariffs, the industries you expected to magically appear didn't. Instead people just have less and work less.
So your dichotomy applies, but it's not some magical ratchet out of globalization unless there's a corresponding push on the federal or state level to build competitive domestic industries to replace the international supply chains we've been cut off from.
> I am really not a Trump supporter at all. But at the same time the gradual reduction of tariffs has been a key factor of increasing global trade; which in turn is a key component of the increase of CO2 emissions. Finding a way to dampen a bit the international component and making sure that locally sourced products and services are not affected seems not that bad.
I'm not sure about that part.
International shipping in particular isn't a huge part of the energy cost of the goods that get shipped, so making the same things locally doesn't save much. This is from 2016 so things will have changed since then, but back then it was 1.6% of emissions from shipping, vs. 11.9% from road transport: https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector
What trade does increase directly is the global economy, and that in turn means more money is available to be spent on energy; historically the energy has been carbon intensive, but everyone is now producing as much green energy as they have factories to work with, and are making factories for those green energy systems as fast as they have bureaucracy to cope with.
IMHO the idea is that they are ready to accept the suffering of Tunisian oil lovers for the greater good, which is the empowerment of certain type of people like them.
It's basically Europe but hundred or more years ago.
The COOC web site lists California olive oils that they've certified. Last time I checked California Gold Olive Oil was certified, and they even sell it in half and full gallons. That's just one I've tried and liked-- there are a bunch of others listed on the COOC web site. (Edit: there are probably certification trade associations for other countries/regions, COOC is just the one I'm familiar with.)
This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will...
The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage.
Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions.
In construction, for every 5 people that retire, only 2 enter. And it's been like that for over 10 years. The people aren't there nor is the motivation.
I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.
Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Unions and worker rights have been gradually chipped away at for years and now they're straight up chainsawing them. Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage, has skills that aren't really transferable should you decide to change careers, is rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest, and employers will call you in during natural disasters with the threat of firing you otherwise and then leave you to literally die while pretending it's not their fault when you do die? [1]
It's companies and the government saying, "We want everything, and in exchange, we'll give you nothing. And you will be happy." No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory." People in some countries do, and it's because those jobs are a step up from the current standard. Factory jobs in the US are, in many cases, a step down and that step keeps lowering. High tech/high skilled manufacturing can be an exception, but the bulk of the jobs they're hoping to bring back aren't that.
> Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap.
Maybe that's just you talking from a position of relative privilege (e.g. as someone who's likely an extremely well-paid software engineer or some adjacent profession), and not really understanding other people's situation. Not everyone has a pick of the perfect career that ticks every box.
It's very well document that there are lots people bitter those manufacturing jobs got off-shored, and lots of communities that wish they'd reopen "the plant."
> Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage,
If you torpedo the economy so people have no other sources of income, raise the price of all goods, and cut of all social supports and programs, people will have no choice but to take jobs they would have turned their noises up at before.
Then raise the wages. Yes that means products get more expensive, but so be it. The economy will find a new equilibrium. White collar workers will see their purchasing power decrease, but factory workers will see it increase.
>No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory."
Maybe its just me, but I think theres something seriously wrong with society if people have existential dread over the thought of having to produce the things they consume. If the production of it is so unethical, it shouldn't be consumed at all.
> rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest
That's why I'm bullish on human shaped drones controlled with full-body trackers. If you could do most physical jobs without being physically near the area you'd open them to more women (so widening the potential workforce) and improve on-the-job accidents statistics.
I heard a great story from a colleague that worked in fashion development in the UK. There's a big push for "Made in the UK" clothing and consumers associate it with quality, but the items are lower quality, because the UK lost its garment manufacturing skills 50+ years ago. Meanwhile Asia has gained those skills, so if you buy clothes from China they are likely higher quality than you'd get here and cheaper.
This is not always the case, Italy still makes high quality leather goods, Portugal is still making good shirts and trousers etc, but for the most part as economies have moved away from manufacturing into services they have lost the skills and to force manufacturing to happen there means accepting higher priced, lower quality products.
This has probably little to do with skill being lost, and more with how little one gets paid to do this kind of work. Skilled people can get jobs in other fields that earn a lot more.
I don't know that I agree with this. The US is too large a market to ignore, and this is effectively raising the profit margin for local production. Foreign companies will either move some portion of manufacturing to the US (for the domestic market), or cede the market completely, and I don't know that they're prepared to do that (well, maybe Chinese ones are). Factories have a long lead time, so even if this is abolished at the end of his term, they'll be locked in with sunk capital costs. The main reasons not to do this are a) abandoning the market, as mentioned, or b) you think you can hold out long enough until the political landscape changes.
If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages. Pay enough, and someone will do the job. This is especially true for low-skilled work. There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.
And even if these jobs aren't in running these factories, they've still got to be built. Money is a powerful motivator, so I have no doubt they will. Companies will bleed because of this, but there are clear benefits for the US working class even if they're paying more. The gamble is obviously that the benefits outweigh the negatives of higher prices overall. Modern economics says no, but modern economics also believes in service-based economies, and that countries should only produce what they're good at, which, eventually, becomes a repudiation of the nation state. No country wants to buy bullets from an enemy, even if they're cheaper, and the web of infrastructure and industry necessary to maintain a defense industry mandates that at some point, you abandon the theory. Which is to say: I don't know, but I'm also skeptical that economists do.
> If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. [...] There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.
While this might be in a theoretical and pedantic way true, sometimes you do not have the economic context to provide those larger wages, so there will technically be no "shortage" - but just because the jobs themselves will disappear.
If you look at poor countries or regions, there is garbage, dirt and dilapidation everywhere. Clearly there is - in a practical way - a need for cleaners, but by your definition there is no "shortage" - because they cannot afford to pay anything for those jobs.
> effectively raising the profit margin for local production
This is the sad thing for US consumers.
If there is now a tariff on Product X that means instead of costing 100 it will now cost 125, I will guarantee you that the price for a locally produced competitor item will be 124.99 The local producers are not going to leave 25% profit on the table.
No-one will move any manufacturing because people don't expect this to last long enough for it to make sense.
The congress can remove Trump's authority to determine tariffs at any point by declaring the crisis to be over. The Republicans have a knife-edge margin in the house and the most consistent two rules in American elections are that the party with the president loses some support in the midterms and that bad economic times means that the opposition party gains.
It would take years to move production, and next congress is 20 months away. There is no world in which this ends up good for the USA. Even if you believe that this is a situation where short-term pain leads to long-term gain, there is no way this will continue long enough for that gain to ever materialize.
> If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages
I don't know about this in the US. Sure, we're not at full employment, but I don't know how factory jobs are going to change that. My impression is that there is already a deficit in labor willing to work hard for good pay (construction, trucking, etc.,) and tightening immigration policies will make this even worse.
You say foreign companies will move manufacturing to the US or cede the market. You leave out the most likely option: everything will stay the same yet you pay more for your imports.
There probably isn't enough labour to onshore everything like you're implying.
The US currently consumes about half of its goods from domestic manufacturing. There are about 12 million people currently employed in manufacturing, and 7 million unemployed people. Matching the historical all-time low for unemployment rate would give around 4 million unemployed still.
> There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.
I mean, by that logic there's never a shortage of any profession. But in practice, I've seen what happens with a shortage of cleaners in a popular tourist town (my wife used to run a cleaning business) - it becomes nearly impossible to hire cleaners because everyone's salary in the area is inflated and people would rather work at an easier job. You run into persistent performance issues with your remaining cleaners - they're dishonest, simply stop showing up to work without notice, etc. You can't hire anyone from outside the area because there's no housing available other than dingy, overpriced basements. Holes get blown in the budgets of schools, hospitals, etc. because they have to contend with cleaning rates that are effectively set by the competitive market for cleaning AirBnBs.
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing
The core issue is that, historically, experienced workers have passed down their knowledge to new generations, ensuring a steady accumulation of expertise. However, when factories close and seasoned workers retire or move to other fields without training successors, a vast amount of valuable knowledge is lost. Rebuilding this expertise is both difficult and time-consuming. Subsidies will be required to support local production - initially yielding lower-quality or significantly more expensive goods - until the Western world relearns how to manufacture at scale.
Furthermore, if you want to build something, you likely won’t do it by hand. You’ll need machines to automate the process or enable complex material operations. Rebuilding this capability from scratch will take time, as existing manufacturers lack the necessary capacity. Additionally, similar equipment is produced much more cheaply in China, creating another challenge that must be addressed. What’s likely to happen is that Chinese manufacturers will establish companies in the United States that replicate their production facilities elsewhere (e.g. mainland China). They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. This approach allows them to bypass trade restrictions while maintaining cost advantages. I already know of several cases where this is happening.
A lot of that experience isn't needed though - automation replaced a large part of the expertise needs. I used to work at a factory, it produces as much as it ever did (though with a lot of modern innovations), but today only about 200 people work in it, compared to over 2000 in 1950. The CNC laser cutters replaced 70 people running saws with just 3.
No people, no supply chain, and no total lack of environmental regulations mean most manufacturing jobs are not coming back no matter what the tariffs are. It's not just one reason that the manufacturing jobs have left, but a conflation of reasons.
Unless… well, unless you eliminate the EPA, invade Canada and Greenland and take their raw materials, and make people so poor that they take up factory jobs again.
No, this is the effect for the last 50 years' usual "I will have my high paid cushy job while some other country somewhere manufactures products for me, taking on all the negative effects. Only positive effects for me. Yes, you should use our currency and take part in our inflation. Or we'll invade you. We will print 6T USD[1] in 2 years and you need to absorb that along with us."
Thankfully, this is coming to an end soon. No tears anywhere.
I know a version of this is what happens in every human age, not singling anything out, but don't get onto the moral high ground of "I am just trying to ensure everyone is well paid".
[1] additionally, 80% of all US dollars added to the supply were added in the last 5 years.
didnt you listen to the 70 year olds planning this? we're just going have the robots do it.
you know how people said putin was surrounded by an echo chamber and thats how he got stuck in ukraine? Thats the us now but with billionare VC's and 2nd tier 1980's NYC real estate developers. Look at their numbers and listen to them talk, they're genuinely not grounded in reality as whole group and theres no fixing that
This is basic economics that the administration refuses to understand.
Trade allows you to consume beyond your nation’s manpower and resource constraints.
And it’s even stupider when you’re putting tariffs on raw materials like Canadian lumber. So not only do we need to magically find millions of workers to work in these new factories we also need to find a bunch of lumberjacks and start cutting down our own trees? We’re at 4% unemployment, who’s going to do this work?
We literally don’t have the people to make this work.
Suppose you even find those workers. How are american products going to compete with cheaper chinese / european ones. People over there are used to much lower wages / purchasing power. You can look at Tesla vs BYD prices as an example
More likely the goal is for foreign companies to set up factories in the US for the domestic market. The US market is too big for most industries to ignore, and as they move manufacturing there, they skill up the US population.
Industries don't exist in isolation, and you need to be able to make simpler things in order to cultivate the know-how to make complex things. If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. This is as much a strategic initiative as it is an economic one.
And BYD should be a wake up call that the US cannot compete in high value goods anymore.
(Spoilers, the problem they had was that even when they found companies to manufacture their bbq scrubber, it was harder to find someone in the USA to make the parts that are used to make the parts.)
Simone Giertz said on her channel her company approached multiple factories in the US, EU and China about manufacturing a product. None of the US factories even replied.
Manufacturing pays very little, and for good reason.
You are competing with sometimes slave labor in other countries. Countries with no environmental protections and with no labor laws or concern for safety.
Imagine you could open a factory in country A or B, but country B's labor and employment law makes your production cost 30% less. You'd be an idiot, and more importantly you would lose in the market if you chose country A.
But you slap a tariff on, then it changes the dynamics. It makes the higher pay and labor costs more palatable in country A.
The usA has gotten itself in a pickle. It advanced worker rights and minimum wages to the point that shipping their work overseas to countries that don't care about such things is the only rational choice.
Perhaps if pay rates go up by some percentage to bring them out of their self isolation, then this will be resolved.
In real life, people are spending years looking for jobs making enough to barely survive. I should tell them about your video you saw, if only they know.
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing
I am willing to move anywhere in the US to do any manufacturing job if it means that I will be paid enough to afford a house with two bedrooms and basic living expenses. I have a bachelor's degree and have been unable to find such an arrangement. So where exactly are all of these unfilled jobs that you speak of? Are they unfilled because we don't have the people, or because they're trying to pay in peanuts? Unfilled because we don't have the people, or because HR departments are filtering away qualified resumes based on voodoo? This outlandish claim you're making that we don't want to work is offensive to a lot of people who are aware of their own existence and know that you're spouting bullshit to trick people into more wealth inequality.
Your 7 million young men aren't 'missing', you're just refusing to hire them. The jobs don't exist.
Can you blame the new generations for not wanting to work their asses off doing arduous manual labor, payed a minimum wage that is barely enough to afford a single room?
Republicans made work awful. I've heard some wanting to get rid of minimum wage too. Do you think this will help?
Eh. This always gets presented as a, "Why don't Millennial/Zoomer/Alpha men want to work?" Lack of training? Maybe. But I see that as more of a subset of the actual issue, which is two-fold: work conditions and compensation. So many jobs suck, and pay less than they should, and provide no real opportunity for growth. Let's break it down:
Jobs that suck: bad hours, bad bosses, bad processes that create inefficiency and stress.
Jobs that don't pay: can't afford a house, can't afford to date/get married/have children, can't establish a stable lifestyle .
Jobs that don't allow for growth: masters don't pass along their skills, managers don't promote (and, eventually, step aside), employers push employees out with stagnation and the hoarding of opportunities for nepo-hires or outsiders.
And why are we in this situation? Essentially, because someone likes the way things are. Managers and seniors don't want to change their work styles, even if those styles are dysfunctional. Employers don't want to pay. Older workers don't want to leave, or jeopardize their marketability by training juniors.
Every young worker can tell you about their experiences with older workers who promise to train and won't, managers who promise advancement and don't, having to be in the office at an ungodly hour or the warehouse or factory late into the night. And for what? Nothing of the American Dream, at least without putting up with the more ridiculous end of the job spectrum, or having been born into money, or having been lucky enough to rub shoulders with someone born into money.
It's Japan's hikikomori problem, transposed. Japanese authorities constantly blame the shut-ins, but outside observers recognize that the problem actually lies with the "functional" side of society, and its unwillingness to confront the way it alienates and produces perfectly reasonable, if dysfunctional, responses in these men (and women).
> sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage.
Feel free to offer higher wages than the previous stagnant wages.
Agreed, the root of the problem is that America has relatively zero modern manufacturing infrastructure and manpower, especially compared to China. Those MAGA folks just don't know this. Offshoring happened not just because of cheaper price; China already had a much better environment even 20 years ago thanks to billions of people.
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing ... I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.
I feel like this could be used to steel-man the Trump administration's plan, though, should you want to. The best-case outcome here for America is it forces large capital investment in automated manufacturing facilities based in the US by making manufacturing that relies on cheap overseas labour expensive enough that the investment is worth it.
I'm doubtful, but, in the unlikely event it works like that, and this comes online in the next couple of years without causing a catastrophic wipeout in the mid-terms, Trump will look like a genius.
IMO it would have been much smarter to explicitly incentivize this with tax breaks and start with small tariffs that would ramp up a little bit each month, if it's the plan, and not just incoherent policy making.
The only question is how to get them employed where our economy needs them. Honestly I've worked in Manufacturing and it is fucking gnarly. Clean factories don't exist. Many of the men I worked with had some sort of mild mental disorder tending towards aggression. Constantly short serviced machines and price gouging by any contractors involved. There is a lot to figure out and before you end up with a hospitable work environment. I'm doubtful tubby mcgamesalot is going to hold down a job stamping metal parts all day getting his lunch eaten or pissed in.
Well, if I had to guess based on my own personal experience, it's easy to simply be... forgotten. Nobody asks you to do anything, and you don't have the will to do anything of your own accord because everything you want feels hopelessly out of reach.
No one will want to do lower income jobs while the cost of living is high and continues to rise. Wear and tear on the body is also not compensated, not to mention healthcare being expensive. Meanwhile, I do CRUD apps and work remotely 20/hours a week with no bodily harm (on the contrary, I have time to work out and make bad posts on HN)
No one in their right mind is going to choose manufacturing over what I have if they can do both, and most people could honestly learn to do CRUD apps. Even if my salary were to go down by 5-10% yoy due to people moving in, I'm still in a better position for the other reasons mentioned. I'd have to be below manufacturing and blue collar wages to get me to switch.
The only sensible explanation is that they're trying to force people to have to take these jobs by crashing the globalized parts of the economy because they are obviously better than starving and dying homeless.
All this assuming that Trump isn't just intentionally trying to destroy the country.
Why is that the best option instead of raising wages until those jobs are attractive to domestic workers? There's this weird back and forth where people bemoan stagnating wages for the working class but at the same time cheer on importing labor that is willing to work for those stagnant wages.
In any other market, the balance of supply and demand is reflected in the price. But for the labor market the perpetual solution put forward seems to be juicing the supply side so that the price does not move up to a new equilibrium.
A blanket 10% minimum tariff is a great excuse for any local US manufacturing to increase their prices.
I used to live in a country with heavy tariffs, every time tariffs were raised the local producers increased prices to be just below the imports. Even after the tariffs were abolished the prices (on local and imports) never really lowered in any significant way.
That always seems to happen with this sort of protections. It's like when the government tries to incentivize people to buy electric cars by paying 25% of it (example from the climate bonus in Sweden, which was given for years), but what happens is that buyers actually end up paying just maybe 5% less as the car companies now can increase their prices and still sell the cars they produce while making more money.
That happened in New Zealand, where the govt. paid $5,000 for electric cars. When this subsidy expired, prices decreased by a few thousand.
If a consumer was willing to pay $20,000 for a car why would they sell it to them for less than $25,000 when the final bill to the consumer will be $20,000, with the govt. paying an extra $5,000.
The electric car does illustrate what happens to prices well.. but I just want to point out that those incentives are not necessarily meant to decrease prices. The incentives are as much for EV car companies as it is for the consumer. Giving them better margins makes them motivated to keep investing in EVs and coming out with new models. It encourages them to do marketing for those EVs since they can actually get some profit from selling them.
One of the reason why EVs was going nowhere for so long was there was no incentives for the car companies since there were no prospects of increasing profits by selling EVs.
That this would happen is evident to everybody with a minimum knowledge of economics. It’s the same reason UBI won’t work because it would make prices skyrocket.
A laborer in a subsidized, low-productivity industry is one less worker available for a high-tech, high-productivity sector. With a finite workforce, misallocating labor like this inevitably hampers innovation and economic growth. The U.S. should focus on being a powerhouse of technology and innovation, not divert resources to low-value tasks like picking olives from trees.
I live in a country where we have many protectionist tariffs and the locally produced goods are expensive and lower quality compared to imported goods which guarantees profits at the expense of consumers.
I don't understand why people still believe in this day and age that wages will ever increase despite data showing the opposite for literal decades.
I also don't think it's enough to justify moving manufacturing to the US. The investments are to high, especially for something that might only last for four years. The US also doesn't have enough workers, so wages would increase.
This is expected and normal? Demand for locally sourced goods will skyrocket which means prices should as well. What you are leaving out is that the US is well capitalized and those sky high prices will be a strong incentive for more competitors to join the market. With competition in place prices will eventually fall. Prices will likely never go back as low but at least our fellow countrymen will be employed, housed and hopeful instead of on the streets doing fentanyl.
People will starting fighting against more houses being built to protect their wealth even more than now. You'll be earning like $25/hr at the factory and all the single-family houses are 300k+ with significant interest. Assuming they never have a huge healthcare bill which also shows no signs of becoming affordable, if the factory jobs even offer decent benefits but my guess is they will all be high deductible plans.
Count on it. Especially after Trump (AKA we the taxpayers) gave the oligopolies and monopolies huge corporate tax handouts, for which they thanked us with massive price hikes and the current "inflation."
Oh, and of course there were Trump's tax hikes on middle-class Americans to boot.
I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing.
Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June.
Higher interest rates significantly complicate US' ability to refinance. The cost of servicing this debt — paying interest rather than reducing principal — is already a major budget item, surpassing Medicare, approaching Defense and Social Security levels.
If rates don't come down soon it locks in higher costs for years. The country is at risk of a debt spiral.
How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis. Increased demand for Treasuries pushes their prices up and yields down, effectively lowering interest rates.
> How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
Rising prices due to tariffs won't pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. It will increase inflation and worries of inflation, which will actually pressure the Fed to RAISE interest rates. A slowing economy won't stop inflation... We are likely entering into a period of "stagflation". The way out last time was very high interest rates and short term economic hardship.
Prices rising due to tariffs isn't "inflation" in any traditional sense. It's not driven by consumer demand, and therefore the logic for raising rates (i.e. slowing economic growth by reducing money in the market) doesn't apply.
The logic is very reductive. It's like: "the Fed's job is to cut a snake, so if they see a snake around their head they'll just close their eyes and cut both".
Raising rates does Absolutely Nothing to undo the tariffs or bringing the price down. Fed is not a blind machine.
+1. In my relatively uninformed opinion what trump is doing is accelerating a kind of global arbitration in which the US is no longer the dominant economic power. We are going to have to share our toys. The “3rd world” is developing and it isn’t as easy to bully the globe into doing all our dirty work.
In my imagination, 50 years from now we will have a quality of life more similar to Central Europe: fine, but nothing special. Most people will live much more simply, rent smaller spaces, drive less ostentatious cars that they share. People will live with their families out of necessity and strawberries won’t be available in December.
Since people won't actually have more money to spend, you would expect it to lower the prices of other things like housing or travel. So there should be a negligible impact on inflation depending on the weighting.
This is flat out wrong. The Fed raises and lowers interest rates to stimulate or tamp down demand. Raising interest rates because prices rise while demand drops due to a trade war would accomplish nothing.
1) Economic/Monetary Inflation, which is an increase in the money supply in an economy driven by government or central bank ("print money").
2) Price Inflation, which is an increase in the general price level of goods and services that people typically notice at the groceries or gas and usually derives from monetary inflation, but can also be due to the new tariffs.
Is the Fed going to do the same confusion and use 2 to justify higher rates for longer?
I think they shouldn't unless they're being disingenuous and politically motivated (push just enough to make the entire Trump mandate an unending crisis until Democrats get back in power).
> I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing.
No one is mentioning this because no one cares, least of all the guy who just signed massive tariffs.
What you're describing is the end result of 30-ish years of Republicans implementing "Read my lips: no new taxes" and this country refusing to have to a mature conversation about revenues. Also, over that period, wages remained stagnant, meaning more people look to the government for assistance, which then costs money in the form of deficit spending. The numerous expensive wars didn't help, either.
There's no good fix to this other than some serious revenue raising through taxes on people who can afford it. Of course, those people are of the opinion that they're entitled to net worths that measure as a significant portion of a trillion dollars, and will simply push the costs onto consumers in order to maintain share prices since that's what most of the net worth sits in.
You have to break those people of that idea. Talk of interest rates, Treasury securities, Federal Reserve policy, it's all just noise. The money going in must be a larger portion of the money going out, and significantly burdening the average American with more tax debt isn't going to solve the problem before causing social upheaval.
> revenue raising through taxes on people who can afford it. Of course, those people are of the opinion that they're entitled to net worths that measure as a significant portion of a trillion dollars
millionaires collectively have more than an order of magnitude more wealth than all billionaires:
> I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities.
It's very hard to even assume that's a concern of the current US administration, based on not only the fundamentalist goal of radically cutting taxes and regulations, coupled with the fact that it's purposely pushing a recessive economic policy that defies any logic or reason.
The very least that you'd expect is a progressive tax policy that didn't excluded corporations and mega-rich. You're not seeing any of that.
The whining about how social security payouts was going to sink America while at the same time handing out tax cuts for corporations hints at a ideologically driven agenda.
Tariffs increase prices. This tends to cause a wage-price spiral, and indeed that's one of the stated objectives (increase US wages by onshoring manufacturing). The increase in prices and wages is inflation. This will cause the Treasury to raise rates to force contraction.
The next consideration is: what is the budget actually going to look like? Is it going to cut spending and leave taxes where they are, resulting in debt paid down, or is it going to be a huge tax giveaway to the top few % while increasing the deficit? (personally I'd bet on the latter)
Then the consideration: other players also get a move. What do the retaliatory tariffs look like? Does cutting off the ability of other countries to earn dollars negatively impact US exports?
Devaluing the dollar against other currencies will also force up rates by the arbitrage principle.
S&P down 4% so far today. Do we think that indicates the measures are good or bad for US industries?
Tariffs don’t increase jobs. Pretty much all Econ lit shows it lowering jobs, the same way it did during Trump I term and same as Smoot Hawley. It also moves manufacturing offshore for the same reasons Harley Davidson moved them to Europe last time - expensive materials here means expensive goods.
Next, since more expensive goods means less sales (see Ford last time), less is sold, so less workers are needed. Last Trump tariffs led to record farmer bankruptcies for a good economy, it led to ~300k manufacturing jobs loss compared to not having the tariffs, and MI had entered a manufacturing recession right before COVID hit.
If tariffs did even a fraction of the good Trump claims, they be used extensively by every country, by every state, by every manufacturer, etc.
Playing in a 21st century economy with long discredited 15th century tools will end as expected.
I know there is a crowd that talks about debt alot and these are all legitimate concerns
However they could also raise taxes on capital gains and top end income brackets - which are at ludicrously low levels for folks of significant wealth - which would go a very long way here. Some estimates suggest it could put the US back in a surplus quite quickly
edit: I'm saying there is an argument for raising taxes. I don't think its off the table like some people suggest. I know it may not be popular with some but we could discuss the merits.
Cutting fundamental government services feels wrong too
The problem is that raising top end rates don't go far enough. It's a start, but we also need to raise the lower rates to solve the problem. That, or dramatically cut benefits.
It's been argued a lot that such a move would cause a good portion of American billionaires to just pack up and move to another country. Rich people are mobile in a way that poor people are not.
A) The Fed & Treasury have the ability to buy back the securities at any time if they wanted, since they can basically poof the currency into existence. And t-bonds are as good as cash anyways, so that money is basically already in the economy.
B) The country's national debt is also our citizens' savings accounts. Every major company in the country (and the gov't itself) holds an absurd amount of t-bonds because its the best place to store billions of dollars for safe keeping. Paying off the debt means this capital needs to go somewhere. Should it go to China? The EU? Canada? American real estate?
The national debt is probably the most misunderstood concept in the country. It's denominated in USD, unlike other countries, whose debt is borrowed in currencies they don't control. And "paying off" the national debt risks capital flight and/or asset bubbles - both of which are detrimental to the economy.
The system we have in place is a good one.
Thought experiment: consider what would happen if the US Treasury decided interest rates are negative. That is, you pay $10,000 for a bond and receive back $9,900 after 10 years. What do you think this would do to the economy?
Now ratchet up that negative rate to 100%, that is, you pay $10k for a t-bond and eventually it's worth $0 after 10 years. That's pretty much what paying off the national debt would do (in fact, that's probably how the national debt would be paid off, if ordered to do so, the fed would purchase these bonds and the treasury would use the proceeds to buy existing bonds off the open market). It's two sides to the same coin, but instead of prohibiting the purchase of t-bonds, you just disincentivize it.
All I know about this issue is what you wrote above, but it sounds to me like the US taxpayer is paying interest on bonds so that bond holders can earn interest.
I think its perfectly reasonable for the taxpayer to say they would rather not pay interest on those loans. The bond holder could lend the money somebody else instead.
In fact, I think its really unfair that one generation of people can leave debt behind for future generations to pay with higher taxes.
In the long term, yes. In the medium term, companies and people liquidating their assets and paying capital gains tax actually gives the state a windfall.
Many critical flaws. Your getting lost confusing the forest for the trees.
For starters you are focusing on the % on the interest payments which is a line item. However when all of your allies stop buying your goods and services you run into bigger problems.
Bonus problem: If one of your internal metrics is that you want to have a trade deficit but nobody to sell to because you have created a hostile environment for trade.
The flaw is that the USD is massively dropping because of the tarifs.
This will push up interest rates on US bonds, because bond holders want compensation for the value loss of their bond.
> The flaw is that the USD is massively dropping because of the tarifs.
That's all but certain. Currently it's dropping, but long-term it might as well rise, as the demand for foreign currencies from US importers (and by extension consumers) will go down.
> This will push up interest rates on US bonds, because bond holders want compensation for the value loss of their bond.
How do existing bondholders get to demand anything? They may want compensation for a reduced market value, but nobody owes them that. Fluctuating market values are part of the deal of buying bonds.
Yes, but if they let get into a debt spiral, the only solution becomes devaluation of the dollar to the point of hyperinflation. Only then debt is reduced, but it would be terrible for everybody except a few.
-> Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis.
Is that truly still the case? Does the world consider the US stable right now?
I am astonished at how effectively the administration has blown up every pillar upholding the US economy, short, medium, and long term. The damage done here is incalculable. In all of human history never has so much wealth been destroyed so quickly.
I don't see any way the actions we've already seen haven't moved up drastic action on the US debt by at least a decade. And it's only been a very-few months.
We were probably screwed when we cut taxes going into two crushingly-expensive wars, and certainly were when we cut taxes again, but now we're rushing toward crisis instead of trying to at least delay it.
A plan like that could backfire, as one of the primary things that the Fed looks at when setting interest rates is inflation. Increasing the costs of imports across the board will likely increase inflation, which would make a rate cut less likely.
But in general, I think this is too complicated. The simpler explanation for all this is the Executive branch is currently held by isolationist.
Wealth tax is a nice idea but non-starter in implementation.
It works in real estate (property taxes are wealth taxes) because the land can’t move.
One way to tax the super rich is to tax loans against assets. They don’t sell assets to buy a yacht, but borrow against them to avoid paying taxes and keep future gains. Tax those loans as if they sold assets.
this SHOULD be really obvious to those in charge, but I think is too subtle for them, or they're willfully ignoring it for the "trade deficit" narrative. I don't see how the end result is not a decline in the global role of the US and a whole bunch of pain for everybody as this all unwinds. All for the hubris of an old man...
> the United States needs to manage its massive national debt,
> The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
> What are the flaws in this thinking?
Flaw #1:
Massive treasury rollovers isn't new.
22% of all Treasuries have a duration of 1 year or less.
The only new thing is that rates have gone up.
Uncertainty is a short term solution to a long term problem.
Flaw #2:
Economic uncertainty and supply side shocks risks a recession.
Recessions usually increase national debt.
Flaw #3:
The right answer to reducing national debt is to ensure incomes exceed outgoings.
The current administration is so focused on extending trillion dollar tax cuts, no amount of tariffs or government efficiency is going to lower the national debt.
Flaw #4:
Treasuries only really go down during a recession.
Recessions are bad, not good.
If you think finding a tech job is hard now, or that your RSUs are hurting, wait until you see a serious recession.
The flaw is that it's like setting your house on fire because it's cold outside. It may well achieve your goal in the short term, but it won't last, and it's just going to make things much worse in the longer term.
One thing I am not sure about is how much reluctance foreign holders of US treasuries will have to buy more treasuries. My guess is both foreign government and commercial holdings will edge down quite a bit, even without any reciprocal activity. Just because they will have reduced US reserves, and in effect need for treasuries.
God knows what happens if reciprocal activity starts towards using another currency also for global trade.
> Increased demand for Treasuries pushes their prices up and yields down, effectively lowering interest rates.
> What are the flaws in this thinking?
Not sure why international investors would want to buy more t-bonds when the country issuing them is starting a trade war and their money could effectively be locked abroad.
If the Trump admin's goal were to reduce the national debt it would make way more sense to use fiscal policy (increase taxes) rather than some roundabout way to force the Fed's hand on monetary policy. The tariffs do basically function as a massive regressive tax increase in the form of a sales tax, but that comes with truly immense risks on the demand side of the economy. Guess what happens to tax revenue during a recession.
The key, IMHO, is to maintain the status quo of the USD as the safe haven which also has the ability to destroy other safe havens. As long as the USD is the primary safe have the amount of debt is irrelevant.
> The cost of servicing this debt — paying interest rather than reducing principal — is already a major budget item, surpassing Medicare, approaching Defense and Social Security levels.
Military ("defense") expenditures are always understated. Over $180 billion in veteran's benefits were paid last year. This is not counted as military expenditures. Also the debt you talk about is to not only pay for the money sent to Israel and the Ukraine last year, but still for the adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. That just becomes generic debt in the skewed analysis, alienated from its past military adventures. The military budget is higher than stated.
Fed rate influences treasury rates, but it's not a direct impact. If creditors lose faith in our fiscal situation, rates will rise no matter what the Fed does.
Trump is a wildcard, but I could see the US defaulting on its debt, probably in some way that focuses the default burden on foreign countries holding US debt with some relief for domestic holders. I would definitely not be holding it over the coming few years.
Defaulting on the US debt would send the US into hyperinflation and likely the end of the US.
The US sells debt to US and world investors, at good rates (a few percent), and continually rolls over past debt with new issues. The US spends around 11% of budget on interest on this debt.
A default means the world stops lending at low rates. Triple rates triples the interest payments to 33% of the budget. There’s no possible way the govt will collect that much more, especially as the economy craters, and no group would likely cut all the benefits, since they’d simply get in-elected. So we’d do what countless other countries did throughout history: we’d print money to pay the bills.
Of course this devalues each dollar, so this accelerates, and there would be a massive implosion as the US gets cannibalized by whomever can extract value the quickest.
> Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis.
No. Not during such crisis. It's already visible in prices of traditional safe havens (those based on US credibility) that this crisis isn't like the others. They are dropping like flies. Only gold remains.
I agree with you. To just offer a counterpoint, I sometimes see quotes like this one:
But plenty of economists looked at the economic hole left by the 2008 financial crisis,
and concluded the stimulus policies on the table weren't nearly big enough to fill it.
The size of the hole is all that matters.
Whatever level of deficit spending is required to fill it is the right level of deficit spending.[1]
or this one:
We need the government to be out there borrowing money because of the long-term investments it's making in our economy[2]
The line of reasoning seems to be
1) The government is special because it can go to extreme measures to repay loans if necessary (i.e., print more money or raise taxes)
2) The reliability of the government means that it can borrow at a low rate (say, 3%) and make investments that are worth far more than that (say, 10%).
Put those together, and the government's borrowing amounts to a net benefit to society.
This argument reminds me of the 'then a miracle occurs' comic [3]. It doesn't hold water because
1) The extreme measures are very harmful - they cause high inflation and hardship amongst taxpayers.
2) Even if we accept that government investment makes a good return (a highly questionable assertion), that return does not go to the government. If the government borrows money to build a new road, then there is no doubt some economic benefit, but the government does not receive that benefit, and they are on the hook for the repayment anyway. So government spending does represent a pure cost - not an "investment". And in any case, interest payments represent investment that can no longer happen.
I would also point out that back when we ran briefly ran a surplus in the late 1990s, economists were not exclaiming about how terrible this was, or how paying off the debt represented a missed opportunity or a catastophe in the making. Everyone agreed at that time that surpluses were good, and that paying down the debt was good. The current "this is fine" thinking smacks of economists who have a predisposition to accept and justify the status quo, whether it is objectively good or not.
So all of that is to say that I'm with you - government debt is bad. We are in danger of some combination of insolvency, default, or very high inflation. And once we enter that spiral it will be impossible to get out of it without permanent damage to the economy and the global standing of the US (such as it is).
> I would also point out that back when we ran briefly ran a surplus in the late 1990s, economists were not exclaiming about how terrible this was, or how paying off the debt represented a missed opportunity or a catastophe in the making. Everyone agreed at that time that surpluses were good, and that paying down the debt was good. The current "this is fine" thinking smacks of economists who have a predisposition to accept and justify the status quo, whether it is objectively good or not.
Oh? I remember all the teeth mashing about all those funds who have to buy treasuries and now what are they gonna doooo! And how this is unprecedented and how are the markets going to reacccct! Numerous articles about that sort of thing in The Economist and various other outlets.
> but the government does not receive that benefit
Yes it does, through increased tax revenues due to the increased economic activity brought about by the road existing earlier than it would have if the government had to wait several years to save up the money to build that road.
Also, at least in the US, the government is nominally "We the People," so if the general population experiences increased economic activity, then the government is benefiting, as it exists (nominally) for the benefit of the people.
This is just delusional. Everybody is looking for some reason that makes this less stupid than it looks, but there is none.
Intentionally causing a recession to lower the debt burden makes no sense, neither politically nor economically. Besides that the US is not some third world country that issues debt in a currency they have no sovereignty over.
A progressive wealth tax starting at 2% on net worth from $50 million to $250 million and increasing to 8% for wealth over $10 billion is projected to raise $4.35 trillion over 10 years.
Seems like a great start to me.
Alas, I'll never understand people who make average wages defending billionaire wealth hoarding.
>The F-35 jet will cost over $1.5 Trillion, doesn't work and won't be used
You've bought literal Russian propaganda hook, line, and sinker.
The F35 is an incredible piece of technology.
Do you remember infamous articles saying it couldn't dogfight? Not only were those stupid propaganda (you can't dogfight at 100km engagement ranges), all the people repeating them seemed to miss the comment by the older aircraft pilot that the radar assisted gunsight on their gen 4 fighter could not track the F35!, not even at knife fighting range. Go lookup how good gunnery was in WW2 if you want to understand how hilariously bad that is for gen 4 fighters.
The F35 is pricey to run, $40k an hour, but so was the F14, which is correctly understood to be a high tech masterpiece, a tech platform, and one of the best aircraft ever made.
We've already built 1000s of them, and they are already being used today. Israel's attack on Iran that showed just how impotent soviet era air defenses are was conducted with f35s.
"Israel used more than 100 aircraft, carrying fewer than 100 munitions, and with no aircraft getting within 100 miles of the target in the first wave, and that took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air-defense system,"
It's a very impressive machine, that everyone wants, and China is really rushing to build something competitive.
>There are nearly 1,000 BILLIONAIRES in the US, the debt is their problem, they can pay more taxes until it's down to a number you like.
150% correct. The USA is stupidly wealthy on the world stage. We don't have to play pretend poverty, if we would tax the people who have hoarded all that wealth.
The F-35 does work, and is deployed around the world right now including the middle east for the recent houthi operations.
National debt is absolutely a problem when interest payments crowd out the rest of your budget. Interest payments currently comprise about 17% of the budget, and this is set to grow. Those can only be paid with taxes or inflation, both of which hit joe taxpayer.
I think what’s happening backstage in this magic show are desperate moves to recapitalize the country. Foreign and domestic investors are pledging to spend trillions, probably under duress. Stocks are being crashed to create a flight to treasuries. Dollars are partially anchored to crypto by so-called stable coins. Federal assets are getting dumped and operating costs cut.
Maybe we will get out of this without having to survive on cat food, but I’m not holding my breath.
Taking Vietnam as an example, keep in mind that the trade deficit calculation only uses physical goods.
Vietnam exports low value physical goods to the US. The US sells high value non-physical services such as Microsoft office, ChatGPT, Netflix, Facebook ads, iOS Appstore fees, iCloud subscriptions, etc to Vietnam. Other services include engineering consultants, US tax auditors, US consulting companies, etc. None of these are factored into the formula.
So a country like Vietnam gets royally screwed by this formula. They are actually buying way more from the US than just the physical goods.
If you're Vietnam, it's very hard to "just take it" as suggested by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The formula is flawed in the first place.
If we truly want fair, the formula should be based on total profit of the goods and services sold. Services have much higher margins than physical goods typically.
The tariffs might be a bad idea, but this accusation is ridiculous. For a simple methodology like this, it's trivial to prompt engineer a LLM to produce the same response. It doesn't mean that that's how the administration came up with the policy, any more than a LLM getting the same (correct) solution as a student on an assignment means the student used a LLM on that assignment.
Specifically they used 2024 trade balance figures. Example: take a random country, like Botswana, and the country's page at https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c7930.html shows a 2024 trade balance of 104.3 (exports) and 405.1 (imports) so 1-104.3/405.1 = 0.74 which matches the "74%" "tariffs charged to the USA" claimed by Trump...
Rarely you get handed such blatant evidence that someone produced bullshit numbers and/or doesn't understand where the numbers come from !
Edit: someone said it doesn't work for Japan but it does. Every country I checked by hand matches the figures exactly... For Japan the figures are from https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5880.html and their 2024 trade balance is: 79,740.8 (exports) and 148,208.6 (imports) so 1-79740/148208 = 0.46 which matches the 46% "Tariffs charged to the USA
" from the table shown by Trump...
thanks for the information. In light of this, it seems pretty silly: economy on a world scale isn't a line, it's more like a ring (country A has a deficit with country B, which has a deficit with country ... N which has a deficit with country A) at best. Isn't it like saying everyone should trade everything at the same price with everyone?
...and every country USA has a positive trade with, will get slapped with the 10% tariff. Every country on the table Trump posted, that have received the 10% tariff, the US have a positive trade with.
Not saying I agree with it, but Trump has communicated that ideally these international companies would build factories in the US. There would be no point in doing that if not for some floor tariff.
Readit News
The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries.
The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the upside of this system is felt by the entrepreneurs, investors and high-skill employees in tech and finance, while the downside is concentrated with low-skill workers whose jobs are offshored to lower wage countries.
The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
As such, this administration's policies are foolish, but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens.
That is something that in the current American political climate seems a nearly impossible sell.
Agreed. However, by imposing tariffs it is not the privileged who are going to be affected the most. The pain is felt most by the low-skill workers you mentioned earlier.
If the solution was instead along the lines of changing tax-brackets to tax the 'privileged' more, that might have better addressed the problem you mention in the beginning.
"Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it"
People should check out all the tariff insanity before and during the period of The Great Depression. That includes the justifications given.
How much all the imports are realistically going to be made in the US?
[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8WWvBEiFvE [video][10 mins][cnn interview]
[2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA [video][24 mins]
I thought the idea was that the billionaires would buy up all the crashed stocks then suddenly the tariffs would be lifted so that they can sell them off as soon as they recover. If so, the privileged will be affected the most but only in terms of how much money they'll make while everyone else suffers in the meantime.
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I don't think this is necessarily true. 1 day into tariffs and things are probably the same for the low-skill workers. So far, the stockholders are the ones taking a beating. Sure, that includes some low income retirees, but for the working poor, I would bet that proportionally they consume fewer foreign made goods. They're not drinking imported booze.
This is true only if we impose barriers to geographic mobility, which we do via artificial scarcity of housing in our major cities.
If we produced housing like we did cars, all the "low-skill" people would be able to move to the city and find a job in the many other services that require human labor.
> the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.
We don't need more high-quality education nor do we need to onshore. We need to deregulate the housing market, we make it easier to migrate to the US (funny enough, yes that would help with inequality). And I do agree we need better social systems.
There is no way to frame this admin's policies that makes it look reasonable. It's a Crony Clown Club show.
That this doesn't work is self-evident. Cities are currently filled with low skilled people. The vast majority of whom find no employment or employment in illegal activities.
Also:
We don't need more high-quality education
The idea that the world, and the US in particular, has no need for more and better education is laughable. Considering the fact that a lack of education is, arguably, what got the US into the current situation in the first place.
Why would they want to do that? Their priorities are myriad, but raising a family, having a degree of autonomy and space to themselves, and remaining a part of their community are all generally on the list.
What’s generally not on the list is living in a tiny rabbit hutch, owning nothing, working a dead-end service job, trying to raise a family in a city (or just not trying at all), and paying a higher price for the privilege.
Like... Scandinavia?
Scandinavia is the gold standard for liberals.
Unless you are talking about immigration, and then no one ever heard of them.
People don't realize this but China is moving toward Service-based, naturally, as they raised their standard of living, thus education.
What's missing is not raising tax on Income but taxing Wealth: the super rich has their wealth sitting and growing unproductively (house appreciating is not productive, buying farm lands and rent it to other farmer isn't productive). Holding Limited version of a Ferrari isn't productive. Feel free to find other Assets.
Once the super rich completed their journey in this world, they will inherit billions to their kids, whose productivity output does not match the wealth they inherited, again, not productive.
Tax their Wealth.
It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to large cap U.S. companies and their shareholders.
If you are U.S. worker without a lot of equity in the market all you notice is that your job gets outsourced.
Even for highly paid Silicon Valley engineers what does it matter if much of that money goes right back to landlords?
You are assuming that this administration has the same goals as you, just different ("foolish") methods of arriving there. I'd posit that they have very different goals that these methods are solving for.
It would be beneficial to increase taxes on the massive service economy and use the proceeds to subsidize lower wage industries.
In trumps first term after tariffs affected farmers, they had to subisidize them to keep them afloat. It didn't quite work the way it was intended. The trade war relief program in the first term spent $30bn keeping farmers afloat.
Even someone making a first principles argument for a revision of US trade policy should agree that this is insane.
there's no plan for anything here.
Not everyone is smart enough to land in the professional class. The US does its young population an enormous disservice by pushing low academic performers to go to college. There needs to be, somehow, a way for people to make a living with their hands, because for some people, that is genuinely all they are capable of.
> ... build out social systems...
The way you build out the social system is by enabling people in the working class to find genuine work that produces value, not some ditch-digging make-work government program. You don't take those jobs away by offshoring them.
I'm not saying I'm against offshoring in general or that I support Trump's tariffs - I don't. But it's not exactly controversial to point out that, since the end of the Cold War, the US prioritized the recommendations of economists over social cohesion and socially harmonious policy. A lot of people were thrown out of work and were left to fend for themselves. Many of them ended up as victims of the opioid epidemic. I'm not convinced that the prior system was completely peaches as cream.
Like building out clean energy infrastructure?
Modern "ditch digging government programs" aren't necessarily low-skill. Even at the time, the new deal government programs were massively beneficial for society while also providing jobs for folks who needed it, at reasonable wages. Let's not shit on good government programs just because the right has been feeding us propaganda demonizing it for decades.
Edit: looks like this is discussed in a sibling thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43573036
Very few people who work as full-time devs are so wealthy that they are totally insulated from general social decline.
Let's suppose these policies are to the benefit of some Americans over other the benefit of other Americans. The open question now is: does it matter? does it really have an influence on the gross profit numbers? Will an isolationist foreign policy destroy the international order and how could this effect the US in return?
Well, at least it might get interesting if you like crazy. I don't really believe those crying the loudest that they are particularly interested in combating inequality or are too interested in protecting low income people. Yes, maybe they need industries protected by tarrifs instead of cheap t-shirts. Maybe this perspective is rather stupid though. We will find out if that works or not. Economics projecting the next depression aren't really sources to trust either.
I'm always skeptical of the idea that we can just educate ourselves out of problems.
As I see it, that would only raise people's wage expectations which would make us even less competitive on a global market?
The need for blue collar workers doesn't just evaporate, and there's frankly only a finite demand for white collar workers. You give everyone expectations of a white collar job, and they end up working blue collar because there's no job for them, you're just setting society up for mass disappointment and resentment.
You give your average blue collar worker today a degree, are they actually more valuable to their current position? Probably not.
It is unacceptable for any other country to be able to do this to any part of the western-aligned military supply chain.
We needed a targeted policy -- I don't care about American cars except to the extent that those factories can be converted to aircraft and tank factories.
But the conversation has been frustratingly reduced to 'reshore low skill work' vs 'save my infinite trough of cheap plastic slop'.
I don't want to hear about tariffs bad, I want to hear about how subsidies are better or about how it doesn't matter anyway because of the structure of the Chinese economy (I saw it claimed without evidence that they depend on imports from places aligned with the west which is reassuring if substantiated).
There's an underlying issue everyone is dancing around.
National security / foreign interference hadn't occurred to me, and now I'm wondering what would happen to US economy and manufacturing if it was at war with China and or the EU over Taiwan and or Greenland.
How would US deal with Russian style sanctions? Can China simply ban all exports to the US?
In times of war, it probably is super important that a country and manufacture all essentials.
>But the conversation has been frustratingly reduced to 'reshore low skill work' vs 'save my infinite trough of cheap plastic slop'
The conversation has been reduced to that because this administration's tariffs are and have always been indiscriminate.
You bring up an interesting issue, but people aren't discussing it because it's orthogonal to what is currently happening.
You're proposing to tax an international supply chain. To tax something it has to be in your jurisdiction to begin with, and then you have several problems.
The most obvious of these is, what happens when the stuff just isn't there anymore? Suppose the US isn't competitive with China for manufacturing certain goods, e.g. because the US has a higher cost of living as a result of a purposeful housing shortage and then has higher labor costs, or for any other reason. So manufacturing moves to China, not just to sell to the US but also to sell to the domestic market in China and to Europe and India and the rest of the world. No part of those other transactions is in the US, so the US can't tax them and use the money to help the people in the US who used to be doing that manufacturing and selling those products to the rest of the world. Whereas if you sustain domestic manufacturing through some means then it exists and can make products to sell to the rest of the world because the fixed costs of establishing a manufacturing base can be covered by the domestic market and then it only has to compete in the international market on the basis of variable costs.
Next consider the industries where the US still makes stuff. You could tax those things because they're still in the US. But that makes the US less competitive in the global market for investment capital, which is highly mobile. If higher US taxes cause returns to be lower in the US than they are in other countries then investors go invest in the other countries instead, and then the thing stops being in the US. So that doesn't really work. You can see this in the case of e.g. Europe, which has even worse problems with the loss of manufacturing than the US.
Which leaves the activity where it's the other half of the transaction happening in the US, i.e. China is manufacturing something but the customer is in the US. That you could tax without a huge risk of capital flight, because companies can rarely change the location of their customers, but that still leaves you with two problems.
First, either of the countries participating in the transaction could levy the tax. In the case of China, then they can levy a tax (or some tax-equivalent) to only such an extent that it consumes the surplus in the transaction attributable to the competitive advantage of their country. China can do this because they have a lower cost of living etc., which doesn't work for the US. But because they do that, the US can't tax that portion of the surplus, which was the gain from moving manufacturing to China.
And second, a tax on imports is called a tariff. Which the US can impose to tax that portion of the transaction surplus that isn't attributable to the foreign country's cost advantage, i.e. the preexisting transaction surplus where it costs $8 to make something someone is willing to pay $10 for regardless of where it was made. But tariffs are the thing you don't like.
OR tax wealth. If most return on international capital investment is being stored in the US, taxing this effectively taxes profits on international sales???
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Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee?
Imagine if the highest earning jobs required immense physical endurance and strength. Nobody would argue that everyone can do that. It would be obvious that only a subset of people are capable of doing those jobs. For some reason, with intellectual labor, we are able to pretend that there is no threshold and everyone can do it. It's an idea that makes people feel good but what if it's just not true? Can everyone be made above average in something with enough education?
If we're creating an economy where decent jobs only exist for people in the top ~20% of the ability curve, how do we handle that? How do we maintain a democracy? Sometimes people float the idea of UBI, but that could turn out extremely dystopian with a huge underclass of UBI-collecting people in a state of hopelessness and boredom. That doesn't work much better for democracy than a huge underclass of under-employed and unemployed people.
To make matters worse: the fact that our past strategy works so well for increasing GDP means it it tends to inflate assets, including things like housing prices. The end result is a country that looks, to more than half its inhabitants, like a vacation town where outside capital inflates the cost of everything way above what local wages can support. It might not be a coincidence that San Francisco, New York, and other capitals of high margin high skill industries have real estate prices that lock ordinary people out of even "starter homes."
I absolutely do not support Trump's execution here -- it's ham-fisted, reckless, and badly thought out. If we are exiting this neoliberal model, Trump's exit from it is a little bit like Biden's exit from Afghanistan. Still it is obvious to me that the current system is not working for more than half of Americans. It's fantastic for the top ~20% or so and leaves everyone else behind.
We can't keep doing that if we want a democracy. If we exclude 50-80% of the population from anything meaningful or any economic stability, we will get one of two things. Either we'll get the kind of totalitarian state that is required to maintain that kind of inequality in perpetuity, or we will get a string of revolutions or a failed state. People will not just sit around in hopelessness forever. Eventually they will be recruited by demagogues. Ironically Trump has been one of the most effective at this. I'm sure more will eventually show up though. There's a big market for them.
The most important thing here is to do something about the cost of living, i.e. the price of necessities.
Housing isn't inherently as expensive as it is in the US, it's made that way on purpose. Healthcare likewise. If you only make $25,000/year and housing is $20,000/year and healthcare is $12,500/year, you're screwed. If you only make $25,000/year and housing is $10,000/year and healthcare is $5000/year, you're not.
But lowering the cost of tuition also have positive effect on economy, because people who are starting their career will have more money roughly at the same age where they will want to spend more money. They are figuring their living situation, they are trying to figure out what independence means, a lot of people will want to start families at the first 10 years of their career.
If you paid your tuition fees for 15 years, then you most likely already figured where you live/had kids and the additional money will go into savings for retirement. It's will not be "buyer" money, that will go to pay for products and services, and so it wouldn't go towards someone's paycheck.
You still need education to become a nurse, caregiver, welder or kindergarten teacher. And the right subsidies (free education) allows people to make the switch.
Agree with this.
Also, what if there's just not a need for it?
Even if "everyone" in some abstract sense is capable of "high-skill" jobs, how many are really needed? Look at software jobs alone and the onslaught that is the current labor market.
I think there's nowhere near enough "work" ("real" or otherwise) to go around to maintain the level of employment necessary to support the population that we have at the costs that we have.
I don't think any sort of "UBI" (assuming you mean direct cash payments) is a realistic solution, either. People need to "work" in some organized fashion to avoid the common negative outcomes associated with "welfare" scenarios.
I legitimately, unironically, support the kinds of "fake" jobs that were prevalent in years' past (day in the life TikToks come to mind, Gov jobs where people send three emails a week, etc).
I guess in another sense I do support "UBI", as long as it's paired with the illusion of "work."
I understand this seems nonsensical, but just from practical experience it makes total sense to me.
Here's an example.
Years back I worked a software gig at a large non-"tech" F500 company. Much of the programming work there was extremely dull--occasional maintenance of large barely functional enterprise Java messes, writing a few SQL queries a week for wretched multi-table joins requiring all sorts of nasty casting and hacks as "normalization" was an alien concept to the original author and the like. Realistically, folks worked on this stuff perhaps 10 hours a week?
Anyway, I know a few people hit with a layoff that worked there a long time (decade+) and now they're back in the Thunderdome looking for work as "developers". The people in question are nearing retirement but presumably not there, for one reason or another.
Hows this going to work for them? I'm not denigrating them, but having worked with these folks, they're not going to be tearing into broken pipelines, adding React components, configuring Docker builds or whatever--there's a skill mismatch and the workload I've seen at roles lately is just so far beyond the pace, scope, and "scale" that there's no way they'd make it, if they can even get an interview at all.
In this example, would it be best to give them "UBI" payments, or some other slow near-sinecure where they have dignity?
Maybe I'm just soft.
"pfff it's easy-peasy, just go attend a (literal) bootcamp, you'll be fine, anyone can do it"
----
> Still it is obvious to me that the current system is not working for more than half of Americans. It's fantastic for the top ~20% or so and leaves everyone else behind.
god yes
The elephant in the room here: there is no money for anyone not in the top20%, it all goes into their pockets and they just sit on it, leaving only scraps for everyone else, tax the rich, anyone with more than x% of the median amount of wealth should have everything above that taken away and redistributed to everyone, possibly by means such as UBI/welfare/etc!
But we ain't gonna get any of that without revolution. And honestly it feels like Trump's getting us closer and closer to the brink of that.
There is a simple mechanism to distribute the money from the rich back to middle class / poor.
Its called taxes.
Basically, Trump shouldn't have done tariff and instead just taxed the rich after a certain point.
Oh wait, I think that sounds familiar.
Of course I am not saying tax them 90% and of course, you might say that there are loopholes. How are we going to distribute money from stocks? And you are right. But the thing trump is doing isn't working or maybe its working as intended by trump being a chatgpt wrapper.
If even trump literally just sat and did nothing, it would have been more beneficial.
I mean, Europe also has a high tax rate, its not that bad to have a high tax rate if you genuinely want equality, though I presume nobody really wants that. And Lobbying is legal in america which really shocks me.
I had said it time and time again. Trust is like a glass ball,once broken it can't be recovered. I feel like people are however still in shock of that glass ball being fallen and are in disbelief, But you guys gotta know whom y'all elected is doing harm.
Polymarket and even goldman sachs etc. are predicting 60% chance of US recession
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Then why is the economy crashing under these new tariffs when it was recovering nicely just a few months ago?
Explain how is it hurting US economy?
And how do you propose we do that? By giving schools even more money at taxpayer's expense?
> raising taxes at the high end
40.1% of US taxpayers on the low end of income distribution pay no income tax, 16.5% pay neither income nor payroll taxes. Top 1% pays 40.4% of all income tax (while holding about 30.8% of net worth, 13.8% of the total is held by top 0.1%). Top 1% (with the possible exception of a few billionaires) already pays through their nose.
In that case, someone else is going to be holding the bill that you might not have intended.
I hate discussion of percentages, because every percentage seems reasonable by itself. It's the summation of the percentages that politicians have no interest in discussing.
In fact, it should be a requirement of government to sum the percentages of federal,state,medicare,social security, sales, resort, fuel, local levies, internet sales into one effective percentage that a given citizen in a given city has to pay.
Has anyone calculated that number for themselves? I've been collecting all my transactions and taxes to figure out what percentage of my income actually goes to taxes.
According to 2022 IRS data, average deductions for those who itemized totaled $43,686 in tax year 2022 [0]. The 2022 bottom two quintiles of income were under $44k [1]. That means in 2022 rich people AND poor people didn't pay income taxes on their first $45k of income. Is that unfair to rich people?
Worth noting, the 25 richest Americans paid an average effective tax rate of 13%, as of 2018 when IRS data was leaked [2].
==Top 1% (with the possible exception of a few billionaires) already pays through their nose.==
"While average effective tax rates barely changed in the US from 1945 to 2015, the average tax rates of high-income households fell sharply—from about 50 percent to 25 percent for the highest income 0.01 percent and from about 40 percent to about 25 percent for the top 1 percent." [3]
If the average effective rate hasn't changed, but the effective rate paid by the top 1% has fallen by ~40%, how is the difference made up? The 99% pay more.
[0] https://www.pgpf.org/article/7-key-charts-on-tax-breaks/
[1] https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2022.B19081?q=income+qu...
[2] https://www.propublica.org/article/you-may-be-paying-a-highe...
[3] https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/effective-income-tax-rate...
tons of cynical one-liners from partisans drown out efforts to really examine the impacts over medium and long term. A horrible problem with this move is that it is not entirely wrong from a fundamentals point of view? It certainly creates winners and losers, no question about it.
I suppose that's the point, people were tired of hearing the same old crap by leftists who fancy themselves as smarter, as their quality of life continued to drop, so they figured "screw it let's try the opposite".
Guess we'll see where it lands.
Income taxes on individuals are 2.4 trillion.
How much do you expect to raise taxes to cover that gap? You double my taxes and I’m in the welfare line.
Further, and this is not referenced enough - the US must rollover ~9 trillion in treasuries this year. The lower the interest rate to do that, the better. Otherwise it increase the deficit even more.
The only way this ends is one of two paths - a path similar to what we are on; default.
We may not like this one, but default is world destroying because of the broad use of the Dollar around the globe.
Also, this is a false dichotomy.
That is a huge, huge deal. It effectively means that all goods imported from China will be slapped with a 30% import tax, as soon as said goods arrive the US border / customs.
Usually what happens then, is that the courier will pay that tax, and then bill the recipient later on - as well as charge some fee/fees for the work done.
This is why in some European countries, that $1 item from China with free shipping can end up costing $10, because you're paying $0.25 in VAT or import taxes, and $10 to the shipping courier for doing the paperwork.
If that is the case in the US, I fully expect total chaos and mayhem when all the Temu / AliExpress/ Wish customers start receiving extra bills for their orders.
(That's just from the most obvious consumer example...then you have pretty much everything else. Goods, commodities, etc.)
EDIT: I found more info here https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-pr...
So it is even worse, you either pay $25 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher. Then later it moves up to $50 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher.
a $1 item with $1 shipping will end up costing you as much as $52 after June!
Not the big China exporters, not any more. They all include taxes in the price on your country specific web site, ship to their warehouses inside the EU, handle taxes and your local courier just delivers.
Now if you're talking DHL yes, they have you fill forms upon forms and charge you for the forms you didn't ask for. But if that happens, no one will have time to process all the forms so private imports from China will simply ... halt for a while. Until Temu/AliExpress/etc sort out for the US the same system they use in the EU.
If in the US, I'd hold on any direct purchases from China for 3-6 months.
> So it is even worse, you either pay $25 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher. Then later it moves up to $50 per shipment, or 30% - whichever is higher.
Hah. That's DHL commission territory :) Definitely hold from direct purchases until Temu sorts it out for you.
The thing is, the EU specifically set up a structure to make this easier for sellers and transparent for customers (the "import one-stop shop") and I don't see the US government doing any effort to make importations more seamless.
I doubt the US will even manufacture substitutes for most of the things I liked and ordered from AliExpress. People with hobbies primarily supplied by Chinese manufacturing (like mine- electronics, 3D printing, FPV drones) are just going to be paying more for the same thing. There's no way we'll get an American substitute for niche products- all the US chip fabs are going to be filled with orders for higher dollar parts.
Note that the fact sheet says per item, not per shipment. So there doesn't even seem to be a way to make one big purchase of several items to pay a single fee. They will hit you for every item in the shipment.
Quick edit: I also note that the fact sheet makes a distinction between things sent through international post vs. other means. If you send via UPS/FedEx/DHL there will be regular customs fees (34%?), and through post you will have the $25/50 per item fee. So I will definitely have to pay attention to the shipping method for anything bought from AliExpress from now on.
Quick edit 2: I literally have a PicoCalc from ClockworkPi coming in the mail in a few days- I guess we'll see if DHL charges me any extra fees.
I had plans to build some animatronic Halloween decorations for this year over the summer. I’m not going to spend hundreds to thousands of dollars on parts that nominally cost less than $50.
My own pain is minor though compared to everyone I know who uses Temu and other things to basically outfit their life. This will be insanely regressive as they have the least to spend on “on brand” products, which themselves are imported too. This is like “super sales tax for the poor.” Me, I’ll just save my money and wait for the next president to undo the mess. My buddies not as successful monetarily as me? Their quality is life is going down the drain.
Lately, there have been some domestic actors filling in the gap. But it's still a significant cost increase compared to the glory days.
Sounds like you have some cool projects planned.... do you have any pics/links you can share?
Basically it just means Temu/Aliexpress/Etc. will ship their goods to the US in bulk instead of bypassing customs on individual small orders, and distribute from domestic warehouses, having to now compete with US producers who do the same thing.
It does completely kill any business built on dropshipping individual orders from chinese factories without ever touching inventory however.
https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statement...
All three of those stores are very popular in my part of Europe. So there must be some workaround. Based on your edit I would guess that they would import a bunch of orders in one shipment to make the 'per shipment' charge small per item/order.
Do they open every package? What stops Temu or whatever from just keep sending them? I mean drugs get through so ..
Sure. Modern Chinese RoRo vessels fit more than 1 shirt on them. The average shipping manifest to America looks more like 125,000 shirts, 10,000 tons displacement of natural gas, 40,000 sex toys, 20,000 Macbooks and a few dozen merchant marines making the trip. The "great cost to the environment" was manufacturing these products. The carbon footprint for shipping linens around the world is negligible, and cheaper than buying American-made.
It doesn't take a genius to see that this isn't an environmental issue, China will fuel up their boats regardless and take their surplus elsewhere. This is about American businesses outright failing to compete in the free market in places that matter, like car manufacturing and $1 tee shirt factories.
All three of those stores are very popular in my part of Europe. So there must be some workaround.
I think we are underestimating how popular protectionism is with progressives, it may turn out to be an unusual alliance between disaffected voters on the far right and left outnumbering free trade advocates in the center of both parties.
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The practical takeaway is that the average household will spend $3,500-4,000 more as a result of the tariffs. Clothes, furniture, toys will be about 30% more expensive, electronics will be about 25% more expensive, tires and jewelry about 15% more expensive, and industrial buyers are going to get hosed when they buy equipment.
There were major carve-outs for the auto industry (yay Michigan) and petrochemical industries (yay Gulf Coast); they’ll still get hosed on equipment but will mostly escape increases in cost of materials. Imported cars/trucks aren’t directly affected either.
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Meta discussion:
I can't do an analysis on the de minimis situation, I don't know of any public datasets that would allow such an analysis, and it's obvious that it will have extremely complex effects (and therefore, any first-order analysis would be very low-quality).
Note on ChatGPT-4.5 "Deep Research": I spot-checked the calculations for HS codes using my own research and the numbers seemed reasonably close to my own. https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/explore/treemap is an invaluable resource for this kind of analysis. ChatGPT fumbled the bag on HS 30: Pharmaceutical products, by not excluding products listed in Annex II, which overestimated total tariffs by about 6% ($30 billion), but the net effect on households is still in the right ballpark (+/- 20%).
Edit: This isn't one of those simple low-effort posts that say "omg look what ChatGPT said". I'm capable of doing this analysis on my own, and I checked ChatGPT's work for the largest contributing categories of goods. Sometimes we disagreed by 10% or so, but overall the results checked out except for Pharmaceuticals, which I caught and didn't repeat misinformation in my "practical effects" tl;dr. The only way it is significantly wrong is if both myself and ChatGPT missed some large tariff category and assumed it was small - that could raise the real costs above the numbers in the analysis - but I checked all the largest categories that ChatGPT identified as well as all the largest categories from our largest trade partners shown by the Atlas of Economic Complexity, so it's somewhat unlikely that happened.
I purposefully didn't include 2nd and 3rd order effects (e.g. chained CPI) because they are usually relatively small, massively uncertain (my analysis would be worth as much as dog poop on a shoe) and those higher-order effects take too long to manifest. It's not worth predicting costs out 2+ years because the political environment is far too unstable. Just today, the U.S. Senate voted to block all the Canadian tariffs and end the "state-of-emergency" that this executive order is standing on. Front-page diplomacy or private back-room deals could make Trump adjust tariffs up or down on various nations multiple times this year. Who knows what the situation will be 6 months from now, let alone 5 years from now when global supply chains and pricing elasticity might re-normalize. The fact that ChatGPT didn't include these effects is a point in its favor, not a glaring oversight.
I'm not complaining about downvotes but if you are downvoting this, please let me know why so that I can improve. I put a lot of work into this far beyond just typing some crap into ChatGPT and I think these numbers add a lot to the discussion.
This is what strikes me about these new tariffs... for all the concern about how it's going to impact the US economy (and I don't doubt it will), this is STILL far, far, less protectionism than literally every other country in the entire world. Donald Trump's justification for all this is that the U.S. is propping up the entire world economy to it's own detriment, and I'm not sure he's necessarily wrong here.
"less protectionism than literally every other country in the entire world"
I ordered from Temu and it's shipped from China and arrives at my door with my local sales tax applied -- because Temu abides by Canadian law -- but otherwise with no additional fees. Got a pair of headphones and a three timer device yesterday for $10 CAD.
Or you know, Trump's constant yapping about Canada's diary tariff. In reality the US ships 4x more dairy to Canada tariff free than the reverse, and we, by design, do not target sending dairy to the US. But Trump takes advantage of the poorly informed and/or stupid, and it works amazingly.
>U.S. is propping up the entire world economy to it's own detriment
If you're sitting in the richest large country in the world, literally at the height of its economic accomplishment, and you really buy it when someone tells you that you're the victim, you might be profoundly misinformed and with literally zero context of reality.
The US has an amazing amount to fall, and it's going to happen. And when you're working on the assembly line doing extremely low value work, having been ostracized by the entire planet, enjoy how you made the libs pay.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh...
https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...
Norfolk Island, an Australian community of 3000 with no exports to the US, gets its own 29% tariff. They're expecting a tourism boost from the publicity.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump...
"To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4.
Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al., 2023), but estimates of the elasticity vary. To be conservative, studies that find higher elasticities near 3-4 were drawn on. The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25."[0]
[0] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
By that logic, it looks like Pythagoras got his theorem from an LLM...
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Then they incorrectly labelled these numbers as reciprocal tarrifs implying this is what other countries charge the US.
The worst of it is that all of this misinformation will be happily accepted as truth by so many people. It's now going to be almost impossible to have people realise the truth, especially those people who support Trump. Ugh.
Vietnam uses many US services such as Microsoft Office, Netflix, ChatGPT, Facebook ads, etc. This is revenue that directly go into the pockets of American companies.
???
Of course not. The entire time Trump is railing against the deficit, he's talking only about goods. He wants to bring back manufacturing to America, didn't you hear?
No one asked him this shit on the campaign trail?
> U.S. total goods trade with Russia were an estimated $3.5 billion in 2024.
Among European Union members:
> The total bilateral trade in goods reached €851 billion in 2023.
Would appreciate you (or anybody else) shed some light on the economics of the thing.
But basing the tariffs on import/export ratio makes sense if your goal is to be a net exporter with every country, as it discourages imports until that's the case. It's still somewhat arbitrary though; my guess is that the White House is pursuing that goal mostly for political, not economical reasons.
Given that both elasticities were set to cancel each other, that's why you get a flat trade deficit/imports calculation.
This is, sadly, the way a freshman econ student would calculate tariffs.
1. It’s not affected by these tariffs 2. It wasn’t used as a basis for the calculation
Also, there are some hints this might be from a LLM [1].
And an official statement that it's about trade imbalances and not reciproc tarrifs [2].
And they ask the affected country to "not retaliate" [3].
IMHO Trump tries to lead the US like he managed his businesses. And here I'd like to refer to the three casinos he owned that are now insolvent [4].
[0] https://universeodon.com/@cryptadamist/114272481124239587
[1] https://universeodon.com/@henryk@chaos.social/11427313249281...
[2] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/02/business/liberation-day-t...
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atl...
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This will get very interesting.
The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced only he can solve their issues. I don’t hold out hope for that.
Additionally, his base will not blame him, they will swallow whichever of the many narratives the propagandists are currently cooking up that suites their fancy.
Higher prices and a possible recession will affect every person in the country and even globally.
His MAGA base might not blame him, but that’s only like 30-40% of the electorate. The other 60-70% won’t be happy if their lives are negatively impacted.
You accidentally answered your own question.
Folks who try to make "the insurrection!" a thing don't really have a good read on the pulse of the average American. This is a failed branding attempt for what amounted to an unscheduled tour around the Capitol.
The same people pushing "Jan 6th" can normally take home the gold medal in mental gymnastics when discussing the events ending with numerous American cities being on fire just 6 months prior. Multi-city infernos were "mostly peaceful" protests, but when a Republican is shot by Capitol security, it's an "insurrection."
Is that because we can't grow olives here, or because we don't have federal subsidies propping up a domestic olive industry that can compete with corn and soy?
I ready don't know the details well enough there, but it feels like this could just be selection bias at play.
There's a lot of examples like this. Coffee, and bananas come to mind. You can only grow those in Hawaii, or maybe Flordia, and there's absolutely not enough land to sate our imports. The whole theory behind international trade is that some countries do things well and others don't. In the case of food the reality is more that others can't.
https://www.agmrc.org/commodities-products/fruits/olives
https://croplandcros.scinet.usda.gov/
An adult tree can be so expensive that there are cases of theft. It takes a heavy truck and a tree puller to steal an olive tree.
I don't know how much you know about olive oil, but it comes from olives, which grow on olive trees. Olive trees are famously long-lived and, together with the very specific types of land that they grow on, they represent extremely persistent and valuable investments for the people who produce olive oil.
5. Switch to another source of fat, like lard or butter.
Even if there isn't a local industry that produces something, tariffs increase the competitiveness of domestic substitute goods.
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They do use products from the US, just not physical ones. It's weird to read such takes on HN of all sites.
>Onagri data show that Spain is the leading destination for Tunisian olive oil, with 47.4 percent flowing to Spanish ports, followed closely by Italy at 42.2 percent and the United States in third at 33.8 percent.
https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/business/africa-middle-east/as...
However, one thing we absolutely cannot grow here in any sort of money-making way, is coffee. So 32% tariffs on imports of coffee from Indonesia.... when we do not even export coffee.
The whole thing is kind of nuts.
I'm not sure this is true. I buy olive oil specifically from California. It's niche but could be larger if they weren't competing with lower overseas labor costs.
Even if we could snap our fingers and create the orchards out of thin air there's not enough land and water to grow 50x our current production. Then where's the worker population coming from? They're also trying to drive overall immigration to essentially zero.
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It's gotten so bad that Tunisian olives are shipped to Italy, pressed into oil, and labelled as Italian Olive oil.
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Maybe it will partially offset the increased cost of everything they need to buy and sell olives.
Now when I think of it it might be a wash.
You must not have read many of the comments here. Way too many people are trying to defend this just because they don't want to have to admit that they were wrong on Trump being better for the economy.
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You should be using America corn oil. /s
Surely that's not stupidly expensive, right?
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Maybe you don't like either of these choices; but at the same time; saying "I believe that having cheap access to product produced halfway across the globe is a god given right to American people; how dare you imposing me to make such a choice" is part of the reason why we need 13 earth to sustain the modern US lifestyle.
I am really not a Trump supporter at all. But at the same time the gradual reduction of tariffs has been a key factor of increasing global trade; which in turn is a key component of the increase of CO2 emissions. Finding a way to dampen a bit the international component and making sure that locally sourced products and services are not affected seems not that bad.
So your dichotomy applies, but it's not some magical ratchet out of globalization unless there's a corresponding push on the federal or state level to build competitive domestic industries to replace the international supply chains we've been cut off from.
You realize this money will not be used to pay down the national debt, but rather fund commensurate tax cuts for the very rich?
Their plan for the budget deficit is instead to slash expenditures (see DOGE and what they’re up to).
I'm not sure about that part.
International shipping in particular isn't a huge part of the energy cost of the goods that get shipped, so making the same things locally doesn't save much. This is from 2016 so things will have changed since then, but back then it was 1.6% of emissions from shipping, vs. 11.9% from road transport: https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector
What trade does increase directly is the global economy, and that in turn means more money is available to be spent on energy; historically the energy has been carbon intensive, but everyone is now producing as much green energy as they have factories to work with, and are making factories for those green energy systems as fast as they have bureaucracy to cope with.
It's basically Europe but hundred or more years ago.
"Silver lining:" there's a good chance that oil was either rancid or doesn't pass basic quality tests for the "extra-virgin" part:
https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/imported-olive-oil-quality-unre...
The COOC web site lists California olive oils that they've certified. Last time I checked California Gold Olive Oil was certified, and they even sell it in half and full gallons. That's just one I've tried and liked-- there are a bunch of others listed on the COOC web site. (Edit: there are probably certification trade associations for other countries/regions, COOC is just the one I'm familiar with.)
The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage.
Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions.
In construction, for every 5 people that retire, only 2 enter. And it's been like that for over 10 years. The people aren't there nor is the motivation.
I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.
Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Unions and worker rights have been gradually chipped away at for years and now they're straight up chainsawing them. Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage, has skills that aren't really transferable should you decide to change careers, is rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest, and employers will call you in during natural disasters with the threat of firing you otherwise and then leave you to literally die while pretending it's not their fault when you do die? [1]
It's companies and the government saying, "We want everything, and in exchange, we'll give you nothing. And you will be happy." No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory." People in some countries do, and it's because those jobs are a step up from the current standard. Factory jobs in the US are, in many cases, a step down and that step keeps lowering. High tech/high skilled manufacturing can be an exception, but the bulk of the jobs they're hoping to bring back aren't that.
[1] https://www.npr.org/2024/11/02/g-s1-28731/hurricane-helene-t...
Maybe that's just you talking from a position of relative privilege (e.g. as someone who's likely an extremely well-paid software engineer or some adjacent profession), and not really understanding other people's situation. Not everyone has a pick of the perfect career that ticks every box.
It's very well document that there are lots people bitter those manufacturing jobs got off-shored, and lots of communities that wish they'd reopen "the plant."
If you torpedo the economy so people have no other sources of income, raise the price of all goods, and cut of all social supports and programs, people will have no choice but to take jobs they would have turned their noises up at before.
Draining the swamp is winning!
Then raise the wages. Yes that means products get more expensive, but so be it. The economy will find a new equilibrium. White collar workers will see their purchasing power decrease, but factory workers will see it increase.
>No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory."
Maybe its just me, but I think theres something seriously wrong with society if people have existential dread over the thought of having to produce the things they consume. If the production of it is so unethical, it shouldn't be consumed at all.
That's why I'm bullish on human shaped drones controlled with full-body trackers. If you could do most physical jobs without being physically near the area you'd open them to more women (so widening the potential workforce) and improve on-the-job accidents statistics.
This is not always the case, Italy still makes high quality leather goods, Portugal is still making good shirts and trousers etc, but for the most part as economies have moved away from manufacturing into services they have lost the skills and to force manufacturing to happen there means accepting higher priced, lower quality products.
If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages. Pay enough, and someone will do the job. This is especially true for low-skilled work. There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.
And even if these jobs aren't in running these factories, they've still got to be built. Money is a powerful motivator, so I have no doubt they will. Companies will bleed because of this, but there are clear benefits for the US working class even if they're paying more. The gamble is obviously that the benefits outweigh the negatives of higher prices overall. Modern economics says no, but modern economics also believes in service-based economies, and that countries should only produce what they're good at, which, eventually, becomes a repudiation of the nation state. No country wants to buy bullets from an enemy, even if they're cheaper, and the web of infrastructure and industry necessary to maintain a defense industry mandates that at some point, you abandon the theory. Which is to say: I don't know, but I'm also skeptical that economists do.
While this might be in a theoretical and pedantic way true, sometimes you do not have the economic context to provide those larger wages, so there will technically be no "shortage" - but just because the jobs themselves will disappear.
If you look at poor countries or regions, there is garbage, dirt and dilapidation everywhere. Clearly there is - in a practical way - a need for cleaners, but by your definition there is no "shortage" - because they cannot afford to pay anything for those jobs.
This is the sad thing for US consumers.
If there is now a tariff on Product X that means instead of costing 100 it will now cost 125, I will guarantee you that the price for a locally produced competitor item will be 124.99 The local producers are not going to leave 25% profit on the table.
The congress can remove Trump's authority to determine tariffs at any point by declaring the crisis to be over. The Republicans have a knife-edge margin in the house and the most consistent two rules in American elections are that the party with the president loses some support in the midterms and that bad economic times means that the opposition party gains.
It would take years to move production, and next congress is 20 months away. There is no world in which this ends up good for the USA. Even if you believe that this is a situation where short-term pain leads to long-term gain, there is no way this will continue long enough for that gain to ever materialize.
I don't know about this in the US. Sure, we're not at full employment, but I don't know how factory jobs are going to change that. My impression is that there is already a deficit in labor willing to work hard for good pay (construction, trucking, etc.,) and tightening immigration policies will make this even worse.
The US currently consumes about half of its goods from domestic manufacturing. There are about 12 million people currently employed in manufacturing, and 7 million unemployed people. Matching the historical all-time low for unemployment rate would give around 4 million unemployed still.
> There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.
I mean, by that logic there's never a shortage of any profession. But in practice, I've seen what happens with a shortage of cleaners in a popular tourist town (my wife used to run a cleaning business) - it becomes nearly impossible to hire cleaners because everyone's salary in the area is inflated and people would rather work at an easier job. You run into persistent performance issues with your remaining cleaners - they're dishonest, simply stop showing up to work without notice, etc. You can't hire anyone from outside the area because there's no housing available other than dingy, overpriced basements. Holes get blown in the budgets of schools, hospitals, etc. because they have to contend with cleaning rates that are effectively set by the competitive market for cleaning AirBnBs.
The core issue is that, historically, experienced workers have passed down their knowledge to new generations, ensuring a steady accumulation of expertise. However, when factories close and seasoned workers retire or move to other fields without training successors, a vast amount of valuable knowledge is lost. Rebuilding this expertise is both difficult and time-consuming. Subsidies will be required to support local production - initially yielding lower-quality or significantly more expensive goods - until the Western world relearns how to manufacture at scale.
Furthermore, if you want to build something, you likely won’t do it by hand. You’ll need machines to automate the process or enable complex material operations. Rebuilding this capability from scratch will take time, as existing manufacturers lack the necessary capacity. Additionally, similar equipment is produced much more cheaply in China, creating another challenge that must be addressed. What’s likely to happen is that Chinese manufacturers will establish companies in the United States that replicate their production facilities elsewhere (e.g. mainland China). They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. This approach allows them to bypass trade restrictions while maintaining cost advantages. I already know of several cases where this is happening.
i thought new the tariffs also applied to parts (with a few exceptions)?
Unless… well, unless you eliminate the EPA, invade Canada and Greenland and take their raw materials, and make people so poor that they take up factory jobs again.
A usual lack of high qualified low paid workers?
Thankfully, this is coming to an end soon. No tears anywhere.
I know a version of this is what happens in every human age, not singling anything out, but don't get onto the moral high ground of "I am just trying to ensure everyone is well paid".
[1] additionally, 80% of all US dollars added to the supply were added in the last 5 years.
If outsourcing labor overseas is cost prohibitive, wages will have to rise.
you know how people said putin was surrounded by an echo chamber and thats how he got stuck in ukraine? Thats the us now but with billionare VC's and 2nd tier 1980's NYC real estate developers. Look at their numbers and listen to them talk, they're genuinely not grounded in reality as whole group and theres no fixing that
Trade allows you to consume beyond your nation’s manpower and resource constraints.
And it’s even stupider when you’re putting tariffs on raw materials like Canadian lumber. So not only do we need to magically find millions of workers to work in these new factories we also need to find a bunch of lumberjacks and start cutting down our own trees? We’re at 4% unemployment, who’s going to do this work?
We literally don’t have the people to make this work.
Industries don't exist in isolation, and you need to be able to make simpler things in order to cultivate the know-how to make complex things. If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. This is as much a strategic initiative as it is an economic one.
And BYD should be a wake up call that the US cannot compete in high value goods anymore.
(Spoilers, the problem they had was that even when they found companies to manufacture their bbq scrubber, it was harder to find someone in the USA to make the parts that are used to make the parts.)
You are competing with sometimes slave labor in other countries. Countries with no environmental protections and with no labor laws or concern for safety.
Imagine you could open a factory in country A or B, but country B's labor and employment law makes your production cost 30% less. You'd be an idiot, and more importantly you would lose in the market if you chose country A.
But you slap a tariff on, then it changes the dynamics. It makes the higher pay and labor costs more palatable in country A.
The usA has gotten itself in a pickle. It advanced worker rights and minimum wages to the point that shipping their work overseas to countries that don't care about such things is the only rational choice.
Perhaps if pay rates go up by some percentage to bring them out of their self isolation, then this will be resolved.
I am willing to move anywhere in the US to do any manufacturing job if it means that I will be paid enough to afford a house with two bedrooms and basic living expenses. I have a bachelor's degree and have been unable to find such an arrangement. So where exactly are all of these unfilled jobs that you speak of? Are they unfilled because we don't have the people, or because they're trying to pay in peanuts? Unfilled because we don't have the people, or because HR departments are filtering away qualified resumes based on voodoo? This outlandish claim you're making that we don't want to work is offensive to a lot of people who are aware of their own existence and know that you're spouting bullshit to trick people into more wealth inequality.
Your 7 million young men aren't 'missing', you're just refusing to hire them. The jobs don't exist.
Republicans made work awful. I've heard some wanting to get rid of minimum wage too. Do you think this will help?
Jobs that suck: bad hours, bad bosses, bad processes that create inefficiency and stress.
Jobs that don't pay: can't afford a house, can't afford to date/get married/have children, can't establish a stable lifestyle .
Jobs that don't allow for growth: masters don't pass along their skills, managers don't promote (and, eventually, step aside), employers push employees out with stagnation and the hoarding of opportunities for nepo-hires or outsiders.
And why are we in this situation? Essentially, because someone likes the way things are. Managers and seniors don't want to change their work styles, even if those styles are dysfunctional. Employers don't want to pay. Older workers don't want to leave, or jeopardize their marketability by training juniors.
Every young worker can tell you about their experiences with older workers who promise to train and won't, managers who promise advancement and don't, having to be in the office at an ungodly hour or the warehouse or factory late into the night. And for what? Nothing of the American Dream, at least without putting up with the more ridiculous end of the job spectrum, or having been born into money, or having been lucky enough to rub shoulders with someone born into money.
It's Japan's hikikomori problem, transposed. Japanese authorities constantly blame the shut-ins, but outside observers recognize that the problem actually lies with the "functional" side of society, and its unwillingness to confront the way it alienates and produces perfectly reasonable, if dysfunctional, responses in these men (and women).
Feel free to offer higher wages than the previous stagnant wages.
perhaps we'll see something akin to "forced conscription", except for industrial work
I feel like this could be used to steel-man the Trump administration's plan, though, should you want to. The best-case outcome here for America is it forces large capital investment in automated manufacturing facilities based in the US by making manufacturing that relies on cheap overseas labour expensive enough that the investment is worth it.
I'm doubtful, but, in the unlikely event it works like that, and this comes online in the next couple of years without causing a catastrophic wipeout in the mid-terms, Trump will look like a genius.
IMO it would have been much smarter to explicitly incentivize this with tax breaks and start with small tariffs that would ramp up a little bit each month, if it's the plan, and not just incoherent policy making.
And you never wondered why that is?
No one in their right mind is going to choose manufacturing over what I have if they can do both, and most people could honestly learn to do CRUD apps. Even if my salary were to go down by 5-10% yoy due to people moving in, I'm still in a better position for the other reasons mentioned. I'd have to be below manufacturing and blue collar wages to get me to switch.
The only sensible explanation is that they're trying to force people to have to take these jobs by crashing the globalized parts of the economy because they are obviously better than starving and dying homeless.
All this assuming that Trump isn't just intentionally trying to destroy the country.
Dead Comment
In any other market, the balance of supply and demand is reflected in the price. But for the labor market the perpetual solution put forward seems to be juicing the supply side so that the price does not move up to a new equilibrium.
That El Salvador prison could also come in useful.
I used to live in a country with heavy tariffs, every time tariffs were raised the local producers increased prices to be just below the imports. Even after the tariffs were abolished the prices (on local and imports) never really lowered in any significant way.
If a consumer was willing to pay $20,000 for a car why would they sell it to them for less than $25,000 when the final bill to the consumer will be $20,000, with the govt. paying an extra $5,000.
One of the reason why EVs was going nowhere for so long was there was no incentives for the car companies since there were no prospects of increasing profits by selling EVs.
For example lower mortgage rates if the house costs below $X. Now houses that could sell for far lower than $X actually list close to $X.
That's literally how tariffs are supposed to work. I'm confused about what you thought should happen?
Local producers are supposed to raise prices so there is more money for worker pay or business reinvestment or both.
Capitalists only care about profits.
I live in a country where we have many protectionist tariffs and the locally produced goods are expensive and lower quality compared to imported goods which guarantees profits at the expense of consumers.
I don't understand why people still believe in this day and age that wages will ever increase despite data showing the opposite for literal decades.
How many times does Trump need to explain this to you?
Oh, and of course there were Trump's tax hikes on middle-class Americans to boot.
What a mind-blowing betrayal and mess.
Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June.
Higher interest rates significantly complicate US' ability to refinance. The cost of servicing this debt — paying interest rather than reducing principal — is already a major budget item, surpassing Medicare, approaching Defense and Social Security levels.
If rates don't come down soon it locks in higher costs for years. The country is at risk of a debt spiral.
How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis. Increased demand for Treasuries pushes their prices up and yields down, effectively lowering interest rates.
What are the flaws in this thinking?
> How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
Rising prices due to tariffs won't pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. It will increase inflation and worries of inflation, which will actually pressure the Fed to RAISE interest rates. A slowing economy won't stop inflation... We are likely entering into a period of "stagflation". The way out last time was very high interest rates and short term economic hardship.
Raising rates does Absolutely Nothing to undo the tariffs or bringing the price down. Fed is not a blind machine.
In my imagination, 50 years from now we will have a quality of life more similar to Central Europe: fine, but nothing special. Most people will live much more simply, rent smaller spaces, drive less ostentatious cars that they share. People will live with their families out of necessity and strawberries won’t be available in December.
A fearful market may end up bidding up these securities anyway, bring the effective rate down.
1) Economic/Monetary Inflation, which is an increase in the money supply in an economy driven by government or central bank ("print money").
2) Price Inflation, which is an increase in the general price level of goods and services that people typically notice at the groceries or gas and usually derives from monetary inflation, but can also be due to the new tariffs.
Is the Fed going to do the same confusion and use 2 to justify higher rates for longer?
I think they shouldn't unless they're being disingenuous and politically motivated (push just enough to make the entire Trump mandate an unending crisis until Democrats get back in power).
No one is mentioning this because no one cares, least of all the guy who just signed massive tariffs.
What you're describing is the end result of 30-ish years of Republicans implementing "Read my lips: no new taxes" and this country refusing to have to a mature conversation about revenues. Also, over that period, wages remained stagnant, meaning more people look to the government for assistance, which then costs money in the form of deficit spending. The numerous expensive wars didn't help, either.
There's no good fix to this other than some serious revenue raising through taxes on people who can afford it. Of course, those people are of the opinion that they're entitled to net worths that measure as a significant portion of a trillion dollars, and will simply push the costs onto consumers in order to maintain share prices since that's what most of the net worth sits in.
You have to break those people of that idea. Talk of interest rates, Treasury securities, Federal Reserve policy, it's all just noise. The money going in must be a larger portion of the money going out, and significantly burdening the average American with more tax debt isn't going to solve the problem before causing social upheaval.
millionaires collectively have more than an order of magnitude more wealth than all billionaires:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4zjnFxGWYkEF4nqMi/...
It's very hard to even assume that's a concern of the current US administration, based on not only the fundamentalist goal of radically cutting taxes and regulations, coupled with the fact that it's purposely pushing a recessive economic policy that defies any logic or reason.
The very least that you'd expect is a progressive tax policy that didn't excluded corporations and mega-rich. You're not seeing any of that.
Öküz saraya çıkınca kral olmaz. Ama saray ahır olur.
Now, so far rates have indeed spiked downwards, but not a huge amount: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-y...
The next consideration is: what is the budget actually going to look like? Is it going to cut spending and leave taxes where they are, resulting in debt paid down, or is it going to be a huge tax giveaway to the top few % while increasing the deficit? (personally I'd bet on the latter)
Then the consideration: other players also get a move. What do the retaliatory tariffs look like? Does cutting off the ability of other countries to earn dollars negatively impact US exports?
Devaluing the dollar against other currencies will also force up rates by the arbitrage principle.
S&P down 4% so far today. Do we think that indicates the measures are good or bad for US industries?
Next, since more expensive goods means less sales (see Ford last time), less is sold, so less workers are needed. Last Trump tariffs led to record farmer bankruptcies for a good economy, it led to ~300k manufacturing jobs loss compared to not having the tariffs, and MI had entered a manufacturing recession right before COVID hit.
If tariffs did even a fraction of the good Trump claims, they be used extensively by every country, by every state, by every manufacturer, etc.
Playing in a 21st century economy with long discredited 15th century tools will end as expected.
However they could also raise taxes on capital gains and top end income brackets - which are at ludicrously low levels for folks of significant wealth - which would go a very long way here. Some estimates suggest it could put the US back in a surplus quite quickly
edit: I'm saying there is an argument for raising taxes. I don't think its off the table like some people suggest. I know it may not be popular with some but we could discuss the merits.
Cutting fundamental government services feels wrong too
Deleted Comment
That the national debt matters.
A) The Fed & Treasury have the ability to buy back the securities at any time if they wanted, since they can basically poof the currency into existence. And t-bonds are as good as cash anyways, so that money is basically already in the economy.
B) The country's national debt is also our citizens' savings accounts. Every major company in the country (and the gov't itself) holds an absurd amount of t-bonds because its the best place to store billions of dollars for safe keeping. Paying off the debt means this capital needs to go somewhere. Should it go to China? The EU? Canada? American real estate?
The national debt is probably the most misunderstood concept in the country. It's denominated in USD, unlike other countries, whose debt is borrowed in currencies they don't control. And "paying off" the national debt risks capital flight and/or asset bubbles - both of which are detrimental to the economy.
The system we have in place is a good one.
Thought experiment: consider what would happen if the US Treasury decided interest rates are negative. That is, you pay $10,000 for a bond and receive back $9,900 after 10 years. What do you think this would do to the economy?
Now ratchet up that negative rate to 100%, that is, you pay $10k for a t-bond and eventually it's worth $0 after 10 years. That's pretty much what paying off the national debt would do (in fact, that's probably how the national debt would be paid off, if ordered to do so, the fed would purchase these bonds and the treasury would use the proceeds to buy existing bonds off the open market). It's two sides to the same coin, but instead of prohibiting the purchase of t-bonds, you just disincentivize it.
I think its perfectly reasonable for the taxpayer to say they would rather not pay interest on those loans. The bond holder could lend the money somebody else instead.
In fact, I think its really unfair that one generation of people can leave debt behind for future generations to pay with higher taxes.
For starters you are focusing on the % on the interest payments which is a line item. However when all of your allies stop buying your goods and services you run into bigger problems.
Bonus problem: If one of your internal metrics is that you want to have a trade deficit but nobody to sell to because you have created a hostile environment for trade.
That's all but certain. Currently it's dropping, but long-term it might as well rise, as the demand for foreign currencies from US importers (and by extension consumers) will go down.
> This will push up interest rates on US bonds, because bond holders want compensation for the value loss of their bond.
How do existing bondholders get to demand anything? They may want compensation for a reduced market value, but nobody owes them that. Fluctuating market values are part of the deal of buying bonds.
This isn’t a law of nature. The behavior the admin is displaying is exactly the type of thing that leads to your statement not being true anymore.
The US owes US dollars and can also issue US dollars. There are complications but it's not like you run up a credit card and can't pay.
The bad news is that they're all terrible.
-> Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis.
Is that truly still the case? Does the world consider the US stable right now?
I am astonished at how effectively the administration has blown up every pillar upholding the US economy, short, medium, and long term. The damage done here is incalculable. In all of human history never has so much wealth been destroyed so quickly.
They are only 73 days In....
"France’s Macron Urges EU Companies to Pause US Investments" - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/france-s-...
We were probably screwed when we cut taxes going into two crushingly-expensive wars, and certainly were when we cut taxes again, but now we're rushing toward crisis instead of trying to at least delay it.
But in general, I think this is too complicated. The simpler explanation for all this is the Executive branch is currently held by isolationist.
It works in real estate (property taxes are wealth taxes) because the land can’t move.
One way to tax the super rich is to tax loans against assets. They don’t sell assets to buy a yacht, but borrow against them to avoid paying taxes and keep future gains. Tax those loans as if they sold assets.
This is impossible by definition:
The U.S. dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.
In many ways the US trade deficit combined with the USD reserve currency status is thus what enables the high budget deficit in the first place.
> The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
> What are the flaws in this thinking?
Flaw #1:
Massive treasury rollovers isn't new.
22% of all Treasuries have a duration of 1 year or less.
The only new thing is that rates have gone up.
Uncertainty is a short term solution to a long term problem.
Flaw #2:
Economic uncertainty and supply side shocks risks a recession.
Recessions usually increase national debt.
Flaw #3:
The right answer to reducing national debt is to ensure incomes exceed outgoings.
The current administration is so focused on extending trillion dollar tax cuts, no amount of tariffs or government efficiency is going to lower the national debt.
Flaw #4:
Treasuries only really go down during a recession.
Recessions are bad, not good.
If you think finding a tech job is hard now, or that your RSUs are hurting, wait until you see a serious recession.
It's like when the media would interview Robert de Niro on Trump, and all he would say is variants of "Well, he's an asshole!"
God knows what happens if reciprocal activity starts towards using another currency also for global trade.
> What are the flaws in this thinking?
Not sure why international investors would want to buy more t-bonds when the country issuing them is starting a trade war and their money could effectively be locked abroad.
Military ("defense") expenditures are always understated. Over $180 billion in veteran's benefits were paid last year. This is not counted as military expenditures. Also the debt you talk about is to not only pay for the money sent to Israel and the Ukraine last year, but still for the adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. That just becomes generic debt in the skewed analysis, alienated from its past military adventures. The military budget is higher than stated.
The US sells debt to US and world investors, at good rates (a few percent), and continually rolls over past debt with new issues. The US spends around 11% of budget on interest on this debt.
A default means the world stops lending at low rates. Triple rates triples the interest payments to 33% of the budget. There’s no possible way the govt will collect that much more, especially as the economy craters, and no group would likely cut all the benefits, since they’d simply get in-elected. So we’d do what countless other countries did throughout history: we’d print money to pay the bills.
Of course this devalues each dollar, so this accelerates, and there would be a massive implosion as the US gets cannibalized by whomever can extract value the quickest.
Default would be incredibly bad.
No. Not during such crisis. It's already visible in prices of traditional safe havens (those based on US credibility) that this crisis isn't like the others. They are dropping like flies. Only gold remains.
1) The government is special because it can go to extreme measures to repay loans if necessary (i.e., print more money or raise taxes)
2) The reliability of the government means that it can borrow at a low rate (say, 3%) and make investments that are worth far more than that (say, 10%).
Put those together, and the government's borrowing amounts to a net benefit to society.
This argument reminds me of the 'then a miracle occurs' comic [3]. It doesn't hold water because
1) The extreme measures are very harmful - they cause high inflation and hardship amongst taxpayers.
2) Even if we accept that government investment makes a good return (a highly questionable assertion), that return does not go to the government. If the government borrows money to build a new road, then there is no doubt some economic benefit, but the government does not receive that benefit, and they are on the hook for the repayment anyway. So government spending does represent a pure cost - not an "investment". And in any case, interest payments represent investment that can no longer happen.
I would also point out that back when we ran briefly ran a surplus in the late 1990s, economists were not exclaiming about how terrible this was, or how paying off the debt represented a missed opportunity or a catastophe in the making. Everyone agreed at that time that surpluses were good, and that paying down the debt was good. The current "this is fine" thinking smacks of economists who have a predisposition to accept and justify the status quo, whether it is objectively good or not.
So all of that is to say that I'm with you - government debt is bad. We are in danger of some combination of insolvency, default, or very high inflation. And once we enter that spiral it will be impossible to get out of it without permanent damage to the economy and the global standing of the US (such as it is).
[1] https://theweek.com/articles/618419/why-americas-gigantic-na...
[2] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-debt-econo...
[3] https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Sidney+Harris+comic+miracle+occurs...
Oh? I remember all the teeth mashing about all those funds who have to buy treasuries and now what are they gonna doooo! And how this is unprecedented and how are the markets going to reacccct! Numerous articles about that sort of thing in The Economist and various other outlets.
Yes it does, through increased tax revenues due to the increased economic activity brought about by the road existing earlier than it would have if the government had to wait several years to save up the money to build that road.
Also, at least in the US, the government is nominally "We the People," so if the general population experiences increased economic activity, then the government is benefiting, as it exists (nominally) for the benefit of the people.
Intentionally causing a recession to lower the debt burden makes no sense, neither politically nor economically. Besides that the US is not some third world country that issues debt in a currency they have no sovereignty over.
Cancel it and stop making everyone's daily life absolute hell by doubling the prices of groceries, car payments, etc. every month
National Debt is not a problem for a country that will be around for 1000+ years unless you know of something that is going to greatly shorten that.
There are nearly 1,000 BILLIONAIRES in the US, the debt is their problem, they can pay more taxes until it's down to a number you like.
Over 1,100 of them have been built so far and they seem to be working quite well.
Seems like a great start to me.
Alas, I'll never understand people who make average wages defending billionaire wealth hoarding.
You've bought literal Russian propaganda hook, line, and sinker.
The F35 is an incredible piece of technology.
Do you remember infamous articles saying it couldn't dogfight? Not only were those stupid propaganda (you can't dogfight at 100km engagement ranges), all the people repeating them seemed to miss the comment by the older aircraft pilot that the radar assisted gunsight on their gen 4 fighter could not track the F35!, not even at knife fighting range. Go lookup how good gunnery was in WW2 if you want to understand how hilariously bad that is for gen 4 fighters.
The F35 is pricey to run, $40k an hour, but so was the F14, which is correctly understood to be a high tech masterpiece, a tech platform, and one of the best aircraft ever made.
We've already built 1000s of them, and they are already being used today. Israel's attack on Iran that showed just how impotent soviet era air defenses are was conducted with f35s.
"Israel used more than 100 aircraft, carrying fewer than 100 munitions, and with no aircraft getting within 100 miles of the target in the first wave, and that took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air-defense system,"
It's a very impressive machine, that everyone wants, and China is really rushing to build something competitive.
>There are nearly 1,000 BILLIONAIRES in the US, the debt is their problem, they can pay more taxes until it's down to a number you like.
150% correct. The USA is stupidly wealthy on the world stage. We don't have to play pretend poverty, if we would tax the people who have hoarded all that wealth.
National debt is absolutely a problem when interest payments crowd out the rest of your budget. Interest payments currently comprise about 17% of the budget, and this is set to grow. Those can only be paid with taxes or inflation, both of which hit joe taxpayer.
I don't understand, they're being flown all over
Maybe we will get out of this without having to survive on cat food, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.
Yes. Really.
Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1 Deficit = 123.5
123.5/136.6 = 90%"
https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907568233239949431
Vietnam exports low value physical goods to the US. The US sells high value non-physical services such as Microsoft office, ChatGPT, Netflix, Facebook ads, iOS Appstore fees, iCloud subscriptions, etc to Vietnam. Other services include engineering consultants, US tax auditors, US consulting companies, etc. None of these are factored into the formula.
So a country like Vietnam gets royally screwed by this formula. They are actually buying way more from the US than just the physical goods.
If you're Vietnam, it's very hard to "just take it" as suggested by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The formula is flawed in the first place.
If we truly want fair, the formula should be based on total profit of the goods and services sold. Services have much higher margins than physical goods typically.
The "trade deficit" is an arbitrary number unrepresentative for what the US makes the most money with.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_...
https://universeodon.com/@cryptadamist/114271484597938775
Specifically they used 2024 trade balance figures. Example: take a random country, like Botswana, and the country's page at https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c7930.html shows a 2024 trade balance of 104.3 (exports) and 405.1 (imports) so 1-104.3/405.1 = 0.74 which matches the "74%" "tariffs charged to the USA" claimed by Trump...
Rarely you get handed such blatant evidence that someone produced bullshit numbers and/or doesn't understand where the numbers come from !
Deleted Comment
No winners in this one.