That's not something you or anyone else could predict.
> How long after that should the Three Gorges Dam be allowed to exist?
This would immediately cause a death toll in the millions and a nuclear response would follow.
You're right: nobody can possibly predict how a nation with no blue water navy, and zero relevant (naval or otherwise) combat experience (ever) might fare against the most expensive, trained, veteran naval combat force in the world - backed by the world's two largest and most expensive, trained, veteran air forces (USAF, USN).
> This would immediately cause a death toll in the millions and a nuclear response would follow.
This presumes that the United States would ever allow a blockade to happen to begin with. The US Navy goes where it wants.
If Trump or someone similar is in the office I'd expect that there would be demands that the chips stay in the US to protect the country from Chinese aggression unless there is some kind of bribe.
I laughed a bit.
How long would it be until their entire fleet is sunk? 2 days? A week?
How long after that should the Three Gorges Dam be allowed to exist?
At some point, someone doing AI might amass enough GPUs to do a 51% attack on Bitcoin. You're right that it destroys confidence in the coin, so if you short Bitcoin futures before the attack, you might make money.
This is electrically impossible for Bitcoin specifically, modern ASICs exceed 3 orders of magnitude more hashes/Joule and hashrate/chip than a RTX5090 and cost $2-40 retail per chip.
I don't, however, see LLMs as consumer products being that prevalent in the future as currently. The cost of using LLMs is kept artificially low for consumers at the moment. That is bound to hit a wall eventually, at the very least when the bubble pops. At least that seems like an obvious analysis to make at this point in time.
If the results of current LLM performance is acceptable, costs to achieve these same results will inevitably go down as semiconductor process improvements bring markedly reduced operational expenses (power, density, etc.)
this has me worried. i would not want that. i use zerotier, not tailscale, but the principle is the same. i have my laptops and my phone connected to my servers. given that all of those machines are already on the internet, connecting them into a virtual network does not add any risk in my opinion. (at least as long as you don't use features like the above). all i get is a known ip address for all my devices, with the ability to connect to them if they have an ssh server running. when i am outside the primary benefit is that i can tell which devices are online.
Some hardware circuits are a bit nicer with power-of-two sizes but I don't think it's a huge difference, and hardware has to include weird stuff like 24-bit and 53-bit multipliers for floating-point anyway (which in this alternate world would be probably 28-bit and 60-bit?). Not sure a few extra gates would be a dealbreaker.
Basically all FIFOs or addressable memory works far nicer with power-of-two sizes.