hijodelsol (u/hijodelsol)

hijodelsol commented on The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble wheresyoured.at/the-hater... · Posted by u/lukebennett

827a · a month ago

The nasdaq composite p/e at its peak during the dotcom bubble breached 200.

Today we're at 40, and Nvidia alone is at 49.

As much as everyone wants this to be a bubble: it isn't. ChatGPT was the fastest "thing" in history to reach 100M MAUs, and is believed to be a top 5 most visited website today, across the entire internet. Cursor was the fastest company in human history to reach $500M in revenue. Midjourney, the company no one talks about anymore, is profitable and makes over $200M in revenue.

Being brutal here: HackerNews is in the bubble. Yeah, there's some froth, there's some overvaluation, some of these companies will die. But I seriously do not understand how people can see these real, hard statistics, not fake money like VC dollars or the price of bitcoin but fucking deep and real shit and still say "nah its like crypto all over again".

48% of survey respondents to a recent survey said they've used ChatGPT for therapy [1]. FORTY EIGHT PERCENT. There is no technology humanity has ever invented that has seen genpop uptake this quickly, and its not dropping. This is not "oh, well, the internet will be popular soon, throw money at it people will eventually come". This is: "we physically cannot buy enough GPUs to satisfy demand, our services keep going down every week because so many people want to pay for this".

[1] https://sentio.org/ai-blog/ai-survey

hijodelsol · a month ago

S&P 500 P/E is 30 and historically used to be much lower. Some of it can be surely attributed to increasing inequality and increased wealth of the hyperwealthy who have no other option than to store their money in stocks absent a hypergrowth market, even at lower expected profit. But "growth" can only so long serve as an argument to justify a 40-50 P/E vs. a 25-30 as in other parts of the stock market. If that growth stalls, there is a lot of room to fall, even if the companies will still be profitable and won't go under. Ed at no point claims that Nvidia, Microsoft or Google would cease to exist as companies, as they can of course be very profitable in smaller markets than those that are currently being priced in and without AI contributing to revenue. But companies that purely rely on AI for revenue will have a hard time to ever turn a profit and there is not a single example to proof otherwise. And if that happens, you might also see -20%, -30% or more on some of these larger players that will survive.

hijodelsol commented on Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 telegraph.co.uk/world-new... · Posted by u/wslh

thordenmark · 3 months ago

This is the problem with retirement systems built on Ponzi schemes. The low birth rate has accelerated the inevitable crash.

If my understanding is correct, Norway has a system based on investment in the country's economy, in particular oil production in the North Sea. And they are not needing the same austerity measures to retirement benefits.

hijodelsol · 3 months ago

I assume you are unfamiliar with how pensions in Denmark work. While there is an unfunded social security part that is paid for through taxes, >90% of Danish workers have "occupational pension plans" that they contribute about 15% of their salary to. By the time they retire, they have saved on average 2 million DKK [https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/arbejde-og-indkomst/fo...], so about 300,000 USD. At that time, life expectancy is about 20 years, so that is about 15,000 USD per year from individual capital-backed schemes alone. For the 60% of Danes that are home owners, this alone could probably cover all basic living expenses outside of very HCOL areas. In that way, Denmark already strikes a good balance between purely tax-based schemes (that you are probably referring to as "Ponzi") and socially detrimental schemes like a pure Austrian backpack approach (which would leave people that cannot work in deep poverty).

hijodelsol commented on Claude 4 anthropic.com/news/claude... · Posted by u/meetpateltech

vessenes · 3 months ago

I see this sentiment everywhere on hacker news. I think it’s generally the result of consuming the laziest journalism out there. But I could be wrong! Are you interested in making a long bet banking your prediction? I’m interested in taking the positive side on this.

hijodelsol · 3 months ago

While some critical journalism may be simplistic, I would not qualify it as lazy. Much of it is deeply nuanced and detail-oriented. To me, lazy would be publications regurgitating the statements of CEOs and company PR people who have a vested interest in making their product seem appealing. Since most of the hype is based on perceived futures, benchmarks, or the automation of the easier half of code development, I consider the simplistic voices asking "Where is the money?" to be important because most people seem to neglect the fundamental business aspects of this sector.

I am someone who works professionally in ML (though not LLM development itself) and deploys multiple RAG- and MCP-powered LLM apps in side businesses. I code with Copilot, Gemini, and Claude and read and listen to most AI-industry outputs, be they company events, papers, articles, MSM reports, the Dwarkesh podcast, MLST, etc. While I acknowledge some value, having closely followed the field and extensively used LLMs, I find the company's projections and visions deeply unconvincing and cannot identify the trillion-dollar value.

While I never bet for money and don't think everything has to be transactional or competitive, I would bet on defining terms and recognizing if I'm wrong. What do you mean by taking the positive side? Do you think OpenAI's revenue projections are realistic and will be achieved or surpassed by competing in the open market (i.e., excluding purely political capture)?

Betting on the survival of the legal entity would likely not be the right endpoint because OpenAI could likely be profitable with a small team if it restricted itself to serving only GPT 4.1 mini and did not develop anything new. They could also be acquired by companies with deeper pockets that have alternative revenue streams.

But I am highly convinced that OpenAI will not have a revenue of > 100 billion by 2029 while being profitable [1] and willing to take my chances.

1: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/o...

hijodelsol commented on Claude 4 anthropic.com/news/claude... · Posted by u/meetpateltech

TechDebtDevin · 3 months ago

I think they are just getting better at the edges, MCP/Tool Calls, structured output. This definitely isn't increased intelligence, but it an increase in the value add, not sure the value added equates to training costs or company valuations though.

In all reality, I have zero clue how any of these companies remain sustainable. I've tried to host some inference on cloud GPUs and its seems like it would be extremely cost prohibitive with any sort of free plan.

hijodelsol · 3 months ago

If you read any work from Ed Zitron [1], they likely cannot remain sustainable. With OpenAI failing to convert into a for-profit, Microsoft being more interested in being a multi-modal provider and competing openly with OpenAI (e.g., open-sourcing Copilot vs. Windsurf, GitHub Agent with Claude as the standard vs. Codex) and Google having their own SOTA models and not relying on their stake in Anthropic, tarrifs complicating Stargate, explosion in capital expenditure and compute, etc., I would not be surprised to see OpenAI and Anthropic go under in the next years.

1: https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai-business/

hijodelsol commented on MCP: An in-depth introduction speakeasy.com/mcp/mcp-tut... · Posted by u/ritzaco

owebmaster · 3 months ago

Yeah it is not a well thought spec. There is a big confusion about what is a MCP Client and what is a MCP Host. Which is a useless separation as what they call in the spec a client is just a connection to a server while MCP host is what is a real client (the apps using MCP like claude desktop, cli tools, etc).

hijodelsol · 3 months ago

I had that same intial reaction but I think it makes sense if you think of it in terms of software development. There are many different MCP clients being developed that are just that - clients. They don't take care of hosting the LLM or any other functionality of the application but are meant to be plugged into existing applications to enable MCP support. So from that perspective, the difference is useful, as it refers to code developed by different people.

hijodelsol commented on A startup doesn't need to be a unicorn mattgiustwilliamson.subst... · Posted by u/MattSWilliamson

toomuchtodo · 5 months ago

Is there an opportunity to streamline the paperwork mentioned to reduce friction for founding in Germany?

hijodelsol · 5 months ago

Yes, there are ways to buy up existing “empty” companies with a bank account, commercial registration, etc. If you want to found a new one, there are also services that will prepare all paperwork and set up appointments with notaries, etc. for you for affordable prices Day to day operations do generally not require much else than bookkeeping and accounting which you can almost fully outsource (though accountant fees are not cheap, however, doing it yourself is also not to hard if you have the right software and do not sell thousands of different products) unless you are in specific industries There are a few unnecessary fees and it takes longer than it should to get started but for most businesses it does not really matter and is limited in scope when it comes to time and money needed

hijodelsol commented on The Llama 4 herd ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-... · Posted by u/georgehill

martin82 · 5 months ago

No it is not. Right leaning opinions are heavily censored and shunned in all major publishing platforms that bots can scrape.

For example, before Trump, if you contested the utterly normal common sense and scientifically sound idea that a trans woman is still a man, you would be banned - therefore, people with common sense will simply disengage, self-censor and get on with life.

hijodelsol · 5 months ago

Maybe because that position is both scientifically and morally unsound and if held strongly will lead to dehumanization and hate, attributes we should prevent any LLM from having.

hijodelsol commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter

MR4D · 5 months ago

The deficit is 2 trillion.

Income taxes on individuals are 2.4 trillion.

How much do you expect to raise taxes to cover that gap? You double my taxes and I’m in the welfare line.

Further, and this is not referenced enough - the US must rollover ~9 trillion in treasuries this year. The lower the interest rate to do that, the better. Otherwise it increase the deficit even more.

The only way this ends is one of two paths - a path similar to what we are on; default.

We may not like this one, but default is world destroying because of the broad use of the Dollar around the globe.

hijodelsol · 5 months ago

The deficit is not in fact 2 trillion. Source: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/trad0225.png (and many other official documents)

Also, this is a false dichotomy.

hijodelsol commented on Next.js, Just Why? (2023) pilcrowonpaper.com/blog/n... · Posted by u/swyx

leerob · a year ago

- Layouts answer: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/43704#issuecomment-...

- Pass data to layout answer: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/discussions/44506#discussi...

- For router.push one, I believe you're looking for this: https://nextjs.org/docs/app/api-reference/next-config-js/sta...

- Stylesheet ordering: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/pull/63157

- Script tag: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/51242#issuecomment-...

hijodelsol · a year ago

I truly feel like the focus on PPR, streaming, etc. is forcing most developers to jump through unnecessary hoops and relearn the basics of Next.js every couple of months. Imo, the interceptors idea is just more evidence for that. On the surface, Next.js may try to keep all parts independent and allow PPR, streaming, static and dynamic living right next to each other, etc. but at what cost? Losing the request and the response object makes life unnecessarily harder. Artificially limiting certain pages to run in an "edge environment" is non-sensical when hosting Next.js on Node.js in the same data center as your database. And personally, I do not trust Next.js anymore with new "special" files and features. head.tsx was deprecated before our migration was even complete. Route interception with parallel routes is deeply broken to this day with hundreds of non-obvious caveats of how they can be used. Server actions are an anti-pattern, since they tie all manipulations to Next.js and make it impossible to use your data manipulation endpoints across multiple applications. Meanwhile, using REST-APIs with Next.js is incredibly challenging thanks to the client side cache and is not fully solved by router.refresh, tag invalidation or stale time.

I believe that there are many like me who would just want to use a simple server-side rendering solution with the route-based layout structure of the app directory, which was a great improvement. Please just allow users to render everything at once and synchroneously in Next.js, expose the request and response at every point and allow database access from any point. I would be very happy to trade 2ms of time and lose PPR, etc. if that meant that I could build features for my customers faster. The introduction of the app directory had me exited and I moved the first project on the day it was announced, but recently I find myself fighting the framework rather than it supporting what I need to do.

Another example of Next.js completely breaking existing code seemingly for no reason was suddenly disallowing exporting functions from page.tsx files. It worked before, so there should not be any inherent reason that it could not work anymore. Now, if I want to reuse a getData method in two pages or a page and a layout, I have to create an additional getData.ts file. Is this was the Next.js team wants users to do? Perhaps. Should they force them to do this? Absolutely not, we are all adults and requiring millions of devs to refactor their code because something could not be figured out internally or they suddenly deemed some usage unacceptable is ridiculous and user hostile.

hijodelsol commented on New York medical school eliminates tuition after $1B gift bbc.com/news/world-us-can... · Posted by u/verve_rat

chii · 2 years ago

> increase taxes and make institutions as vital as school be funded publicly

studying medicine is not a right. Basic education is - but k-12 schools are publicly funded already.

hijodelsol · 2 years ago

For each individual perhaps not, but there is a right to healthcare and out of this arises the need for physicians. And I for one would like the talent of the candidates to be the deciding factor, not their or in most cases their parents’ bank accounts. I’m a physician myself with an upper middle class background but if I lived in the U.S. I most probably wouldn’t be because of how cost prohibitive med school is over there. And this leads to all kinds of downstream effects like exorbitant physician later salaries on that render healthcare unaffordable for many and are detrimental to society.