No, it's not the United States's military dominance that makes American debt a safe bet. It's that the Dollar is the worlds reserve currency. Other countries need to transact regularly in dollars even if the United States is not involved in the transaction. And the only way for other countries to get those dollars is through 1. A trade surplus with the US, or 2. Buying US bonds.
Readit Newsrthomas6 commented on Moody’s strips U.S. of triple-A credit rating ft.com/content/e456ea34-c... · Posted by u/Anon84
rthomas6 commented on U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q1... · Posted by u/bko
Unfortunately housing will still not get cheaper because nearly the entire supply is locked into 30 year loans at near 0%, even a fool would starve, default their car note, and sell their every last valuable before giving that up.
Well I'm moving to get out of Alabama, so not everyone...
rthomas6 commented on U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q1... · Posted by u/bko
I'm starting to think current measures of "the economy" are bogus. It can't grow indefinitely - that's probably just inflation. If you measure productivity in hours rather than dollars, inflation gets a more direct measure: how many hours do I need to work to buy food?
Making a better product than last year is also a strange way to claim growth.
What would be a better measure?
You can look at per capita GDP in inflation-adjusted dollars
rthomas6 commented on Show HN: I built a hardware processor that runs Python runpyxl.com/gpio... · Posted by u/hwpythonner
* What HDL did you use to design the processor?
* Could you share the assembly language of the processor?
* What is the benefit of designing the processor and making a Python bytecode compiler for it, vs making a bytecode compiler for an existing processor such as ARM/x86/RISCV?
rthomas6 commented on Microsoft subtracts C/C++ extension from VS Code forks theregister.com/2025/04/2... · Posted by u/Dotnaught
This is it in a nutshell, with a lot of corps; IBM, Microsoft, etc. Be careful who you lie in bed with. Seemslike newer companies like Facebook and Google have a much much better track record. They may end a project but they don't suck you in and then say "nah, it's proprietary now"
Eh. Google may be better than Microsoft in this regard, but this is basically what they're doing with Android. AOSP is now lacking a lot of core functionality that comes with Google Pixel phones, such as RCS messaging, emoji reactions to text messages, camera features and photo editing, voicemail transcription, crash detection. Even the keyboard is worse in AOSP.
I was really hoping that the conversation around AI art would at least be partially centered on the perhaps now dated "2008 pirate party" idea that intellectual property, the royalty system, the draconian copyright laws that we have today are deeply silly, rooted in a fiction, and used over and over again, primarily by the rich and powerful, to stifle original ideas and hold back cultural innovation.
Unfortunately, it's just the opposite. It seems most people have fully assimilated the idea that information itself must be entirely subsumed into an oppressive, proprietary, commercial apparatus. That Disney Corp can prevent you from viewing some collection of pixels, because THEY own it, and they know better than you do about the culture and communication that you are and are not allowed to experience.
It's just baffling. If they could, Disney would scan your brain to charge you a nickel every time you thought of Mickey Mouse.
More than giant corporations make IP. What about independent artists making original art?
rthomas6 commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter
This is flat out wrong. The Fed raises and lowers interest rates to stimulate or tamp down demand. Raising interest rates because prices rise while demand drops due to a trade war would accomplish nothing.
So you don't think employers will raise wages as the cost of food increases?
rthomas6 commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter
I don't want a cost of living increase either. However, this raise the question of what the real cost is. The prices might be cheaper, but is that only because we're exploiting poorer people in markets with fewer worker protections and fewer environmental protections? Is it just because I'm greedy and I'm not willing to pay someone a liveable wage here or go without whatever it is? I'm not sure, but it makes for an interesting thought experiment.
I worry about this, but I started worrying about it less when I read about Purchasing Power Parity. The same stuff costs less in poorer countries.
rthomas6 commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter
I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing.
Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June.
Higher interest rates significantly complicate US' ability to refinance. The cost of servicing this debt — paying interest rather than reducing principal — is already a major budget item, surpassing Medicare, approaching Defense and Social Security levels.
If rates don't come down soon it locks in higher costs for years. The country is at risk of a debt spiral.
How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis. Increased demand for Treasuries pushes their prices up and yields down, effectively lowering interest rates.
What are the flaws in this thinking?
The flaw I see is centered around this paragraph.
> How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.
Rising prices due to tariffs won't pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. It will increase inflation and worries of inflation, which will actually pressure the Fed to RAISE interest rates. A slowing economy won't stop inflation... We are likely entering into a period of "stagflation". The way out last time was very high interest rates and short term economic hardship.
How cool would it be to have a decentralized coin that has zero percent inflation.