The 2022 documentary 'Navalny' is important and explains how the anti-corruption campaigner got to that terrible place, being poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent and still deciding to go back to Russia.
Navalny calculated that this process would be watched and documented through to the very end. He hoped that might be significant, perhaps even sufficient.
I have held the exact same question. I don't say this lightly. His decision was stupid. He would've been much more effective as a critic with a Twitter account. You can't criticize the government when you're not free to do so.
The reason most people have even heard of Navalny is because he went back to Russia. That move is what caused the western media to pick up the story and run it on the news for months on end. The imagery it produced, videos of him leaving the plane, saying goodbye to his wife, getting arrested, standing trial, were what catapulted the wests exposure to the opposition movement in Russia. It was an incredibly well played calculated move that unfortunately did not pay off because that coward Putin has his finger on the mobile oppression palace 24/7.
Certainly nobody wants to be a martyr. I guess he thought he had a chance at peaceful politics, and at the time it could have been seen as reasonable by a poor planner like him. He had a history of weird blunders, like refusing to resort to violence when it became the only possible solution, or failing the publicly planned protest simply because he didn't account for being detained under a bullshit pretext for a few hours.
That's the reason why we have Russia we know today and I'm afraid that we'll see more countries taking this path in coming years. Almost million russians left country during last two years alone. But if everyone against regime leaves, who have to fight for better country? Or do you really think that it's more effective to shout in Twitter?
I feel it worths noting that the meaning of the word 'legal' is different for ears of western than some eastern nations. It may be inaccurate to describe for western minds what actualy is happening there as legality and law is an instrument of the ruling party for the benefit of the ruling party not some independent supervising power for the goodwill of all. I feel using the English word 'legal' is completely inaccurate expressing Russian public matters, some other was better to adapt/coin for the situation, unsure what though.
He is not an "anti-war candidate". To think it is possible without FSB approval is naivety. His purpose was to collect lists of people who signed for him (that is, new opposition that hasn't emigrated and formed naturally in 2022-2024 - needless to say, it consists of completely different demographics and people's backgrounds from the "old" opposition). Unfortunately these people are too naive to recognize the danger.
I've known him personally for quite a time and that's a ridiculous statement. He never was and isn't a revolutionary, but he always was pretty sincere in his beliefs and his attempts to fight in rapidly closing legal space.
this is FUD. Inventing another candidate while already sitting on already existing lists of tons of Navalny supporters? supporters to whom nothing happened through all that time? doesn't pass the smell check
Sad times began in 2002, when the last independent TV channel (TV-6), to where the team of previously shut down channel NTV, flocked, was also taken over and shut down. That was the end of free press.
Navalny was in support of Ukrainian invasion of Crimea and knew it would require a further land invasion to keep. He was just as psycho and homicidal (suicidal) as Prigozhin but refused to be under Putin’s thumb. Navalny wanted to be the #1 asshole in charge otherwise return to Russia and die in prison.
Putin usually had faked opposition, and even some illusion of election monitoring. This time around it seems there will be no illusion of having elections at all since there will be no international monitoring and seemingly not even a pretend opposition.
But I guess why would he pretend to have democracy? The Russians certainly don't buy it, and the countries that might care have already cut all ties. I wonder why he bothers to have the election charade?
A 47 year old man killed by the 72 year old president. Nothing shows the conflict of generations in Russia better than this. The old farts of Russia/Soviet Union are killing the younger generation and by that are killing Russias future. For what, grandpa? For what?
What future? Between the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the collapse of the USSR, Russia has only a few generations left before experiencing demographic collapse.
There simply aren't enough young men there to keep the Russian population growing and the population there doesn't value diversity enough to consider producing more Russian children with immigrants.
This is what many believe (e.g., Peter Zeihan) to be the real reason behind the invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is "Russian enough" in their eyes, so combining the two populations would help stave off demographic collapse.
There is not enough Young women as MEN cant give a birth, still russian demographic looks terrible and this is very good news for all russian neighbors and EU as last imperial country in Europe will die
> This is what many believe (e.g., Peter Zeihan) to be the real reason behind the invasion of Ukraine.
This does not make any sense. Banning birth-control would be the most cost-effective way to increase the birth-rate, stronger social programs being a strong second.
Much of what I've heard from Zeihan sound memey – like camp-fire stories or what your older brothers friends would tell you – without anything meaningful to back it up.
I'm fairly certain he knew this, but did it anyways. If anything, it'll make him a martyr who died in their home country, still fighting, rather than someone who is trying to run away and fueling the opponent's arguments.
Still sucks it had to come to this. But I agree, this wasn't the unexpected outcome.
I personally think it makes a clown show of Musk and Carlson Putin fan club we have going on, now they're buddies with a murder. I mean Putin has murdered many people, but this one is pretty fresh and seems to hold a lot more weight because of the stature of the victim.
Yes. And now he is dead and will be forgotten in a week.
As I mentioned earlier - does anyone remember the guy who flew over Belarus and had his plane redirected to the capital, and he was seized there. He also was a protester, now forgotten. I do not even remember his name and never heard of him since then.
I assume you never heard of Roman Protasevich before the plane incident?
Navalny on the other hand has done many notable things and was in the news all the time before his death. His is the first name you think of when you think of Russian opposition. This is not a valid comparison.
The contrast with an earlier Russian revolutionary, Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, better known as Lenin, bears reflection. Lenin went into exile in Munich, London, and Geneva from 1900--1905, returning to Russia for a 2005 revolution, then living in exile again during the First World War.
Navalny all but certainly was aware of his likely martyrdom, and appears to have won that. I have my doubts that he will be more effective as a martyr than he would have been acting in exile. In addition to whatever organisation remains, he does leave both a wife and daughter, though whether or not they'll carry on his fight I don't know.
The news today is not unexpected, but disappointing all the same.
If you believe the western media, the west no longer believes in or upholds its values, and watches while Russia pushes westward while China builds up a military and eyes Taiwan, both more than happy to destabilize the middle east in pursuit of their goals.
The west needs to wake up, we're slowly sliding towards a world conflict. This is going to get worse before it gets better.
> How do you propose the west avoids conflict with Russia and China?
There's a lot of things the West can do without throwing nukes at the problem:
- arming ourselves and our allies (especially Taiwan) to the teeth
- supporting exiled and in-country opposition
- intervening against hostile operations (such as "police stations") on our own soil
- strengthen links with "global south" countries to minimize Chinese/Russian influence on them, support local rebels against regimes that have already fallen towards Russia/China.
I'm not sure we can avoid conflict now, I think we're past the point where that was possible (last 10-15 years were critical). I think both Russia and China understand that, and are planning accordingly.
I'm proposing we wake up and start doing the same, planning and drawing "do not cross" lines in the sand to hopefully limit the total/final scope of the conflict.
Yes this will force an earlier confrontation -- but WWII would have been a lot less bloody if Europe had stood up to Hitler earlier -- problem was everyone thought that appeasing him would make things better.
It's clear both Russia and China can't be appeased at this point. Both need to be checked.
Fan fiction, but: Civil wars might do it, the Russians need to overthrow Putin, Xi in China, and we need to elect peace hawks in places that have democracy. People would have to really really really really not want a word war. On the history part, I have no clue, but I do know that today the citizenry is more connected and able to strategize for ourselfs than at any point in history before.
The decline of "The West" (really The US and client states err Europe) is inevitable now that Russia and China have dismantled any social unity we had. Americans all hate each other and that division is not getting reconciled. They will continue to use it to disrupt us. You can basically destroy momentum in the US by bombarding the population with propaganda and forcing political destabilization.
We are screwed in the long run because there is no antidote to this that is compatible with our constitution.
> If you believe the western media, the west no longer believes in or upholds its values, and watches while Russia pushes westward while China builds up a military and eyes Taiwan, both more than happy to destabilize the middle east in pursuit of their goals.
> The west needs to wake up, we're slowly sliding towards a world conflict. This is going to get worse before it gets better.
I think there's an essential connection there: The West's values and their power, and peace and freedom. The West's power comes from its values, not only because it captures the hearts and minds of others but because the power freedom and universal human rights gives to its own people.
As many in the West disparage or undermine those values, they are doing the work of Putin and Xi (at times, I'm sure, led by their disinformation campaigns).
No more time for games. It's time, as you say, to wake up and stand up for our values.
Ah come on. The west is as hypocrite as any other country. Look at what they did in too many places in the world. Human rights my pents. The phone you are holding is probably created by some child hands. If there is one thing what the west could improve is this silly Disney like black and white thinking. There must be a good and a bad. Its nonsense. Bad a good goes hand in hand.
> As many in the West disparage or undermine those values, they are doing the work of Putin and Xi (at times, I'm sure, led by their disinformation campaigns).
I don't have evidence, but my gut says that's not by accident. This slippery slope we've been heading down for the last few decades (no more right and wrong, all values are equal, anyone who says otherwise is a problem/oppressor/colonizer) look to me like a well funded / coordinated / long term political warfare campaign in order to build a country of "appeasers". People who refuse to stand up for anything -- we all know that's how bullies win.
I often wonder how much of what we're doing to ourselves is actually being funded by bad actors, fake patriots, etc.
I don't trust any free news. Someone is paying for a message to be delivered to my eyeballs, and I don't know who that is. Maybe 1% of stories are from bad actors, maybe it's 25%. Who knows? The answer matters -- a lot.
No one trusts anyone anymore. We've lost faith in our government and each other. No better way to conquer a nation than from within.
Listen to internal speeches by Putin or Xi, they are often available on YouTube. We are not slowly sliding towards a world conflict, it has already begun and we are hopeless to stop it. It is arrogant to ignore or dismiss the happenings.
Things were set in motion years ago and they are slowly unraveling. When the West rejected Russia's deeper integration into its structures after the Cold War ended and expanded NATO towards the East this path was set in stone. The late 2000s were the absolute breaking point.
Major Eastern players are asymmetrically breaking US hegemony through proxies and internal conflict. They cannot face the US conventionally but it doesn't mean they cannot face the US. They can, they do and they will continue to do so.
Brexit, MAGA, Mideast conflicts, Ukraine, EU refugee crisis, inflation, energy crisis, recent development in North Korea, social media disinformation etc. etc. etc.
The BRICS countries (and others) are pursuing a multipolar, non-democratic world with heavily reduced US influence over Asia and Europe, who are now discussing defense independence and their own nuclear umbrella after Trump strategically placed some Russian talking points (again).
> Things were set in motion years ago and they are slowly unraveling. When the West rejected Russia's deeper integration into its structures after the Cold War ended and expanded NATO towards the East this path was set in stone. The late 2000s were the absolute breaking point.
Your point would have been better made without weaseling in a Mearsheimer apology for authoritarian states. Russia snatching Ukraine has absolutely nothing to do with NATO's expansion. Indeed, had NATO expanded earlier, we wouldn't have found ourselves in this mess, with Ukraine left to fend for itself.
NATO grew because of the desperation of former USSR satellites to shelter themselves from their abuser.
As to the other bit here about rejecting Russian integration as a cause for war: I think that point has been proven quite wrong with Merkel's absurd fantasy that trade with Russia would bring peace.
What deeper integration would that have been? Geniunely curious, I don't see what could have worked once the oligarchs were minted. They only care about selling simple low-effort stuff, easily corrupted, like oil.
Sadly I think you’re right about NATO expansion. I think a hot war with Russia was always on the table with NATO expansion. You either have to be willing to fight it to defend the expansion or you’re going to cede something to Russia when they push back.
There are smart people who work for Russia, or worse - for russian gov. Without them it would not be possible.
How can an individual have both the critical thinking and still have the gut to contribute to this?
I grew up in rural russia. It's much much worse than what you see on the facade.
My neighbour was a police man. His 15 years boy raped a kid from local orphanage and captured it on a video. No justice followed, because his dad is a policeman. No one spoke up. Everyone just accepted it, as they always do. When he grew up he became a policeman. It's not even the most screwed up story that I witnessed. This is beyond fucked up.
It's a case of mass inheritable PTSD. All males I knew in my family tree were violent drunks, all females were bitten up housewives. This place is surreal and should not exist. And my family was somewhat functional compared to some neighbours.
I abandoned everything there and got out as soon as I could make any money. I wish every person capable of critical thinking just leave this dreadful place and let it descend to the middle ages.
> How can an individual have both the critical thinking and still have the gut to contribute to this?
Personal experience has taught me that critical thinking does not nessecarily go hand in hand with the ability and/or the guts to push for change.
Many who move through corporate worlds do so for personal gains, and will not speak out against or put them selves in the spotlight to fix issues that might reflect badly on their upward progress in the hierarchy.
And from my interaction of these kinds of people, they have often been very intelligent.
I believe the same behaviour and motives sadly exist for many in modern day societies.
Agreed. The abundance of powerful organizations that commit great harms for personal gain, both now and throughout history, makes it very clear that capable people do this.
It is very hard to put myself in their shoes, and contort my brain to make their actions feel like a thing I could do.
Russia’s murder rate is one of the highest in the world, up there with Jamaica’s. Eighty-three percent of murderers and more than 60 percent of murder victims were slobbering drunk during the deed. A typical drunken murder story goes something like this: Two middle-aged male friends meet, go back to A’s apartment, and pound four or five bottles of cheap vodka over a two-day binge. A passes out drunk; B stumbles away, rapes and strangles A’s prepubescent daughter, steals A’s microwave oven, and sets A’s apartment on fire to cover his tracks but passes out while setting the fire, then dies of smoke inhalation. (This, by the way, happened to my ex-girlfriend’s next-door neighbors.)
> I abandoned everything there and got out as soon as I could make any money. I wish every person capable of critical thinking just leave this dreadful place and let it descend to the middle ages.
I don't begrudge you for doing that, as I would have done (and basically did) the same. But that also highlights how a lot of these places get more fucked up over time.
The same thing is happening/has happened in the US. Basically, nearly all of the opportunity has moved from rural areas to urban and suburban ones. So basically anyone with the slightest modicum of ambition gets up and leaves. So all the people that are left are the people (a) without ambition or (b) are stuck there for other reasons (e.g. lots of early pregnancy). But the end result is those rural areas fall further behind, and many of the people that stay there become even more embittered about their lot. In the US the effect is even more pronounced because rural areas have outsized voting rights due to the way the electoral college and Senate work.
Parts of population always did and always will be falling behind other parts.
Humanity must ensure that an individual has the way to realize their potential. Freedom to raise and freedom to fall.
The internet changed everything. The information flowing freely and allowing critical thinkers to get out of a swamp they found themselves in. At least this gives everyone a chance to see.
The other thing is immigration. Your case about the US is thankfully different because one can get on a car and leave to another state or urban area. It's not as easy to get out of russia. Get a visa first. Maybe. If you have education and fit into a category. Do not fit? Too bad, there are great places like Kazakhstan that are available though.
About 8% of the world suffers from PTSD symptoms. There was a recent study done in Poland that said over 15% of population has symptoms. It is generational PTSD from WW2.
You must do something about the horrific crime your neighbour did. Simple things. Collect the info: his name, surname, adress, etc - everything you can. The date this happened. List the other witnesses, potential witnesses, and other people and facts that can help investigation. Other possible crimes he committed? Who was aware and not acted?
Then submit it to authorities: investigative commitee, child ombudsmen, prosecutor's office, etc. Not local, but higher, maybe even central.
If the video is available, submit it too.
If not adressed by all authorities (unlikely), go public with the specific and detailed information.
Make sure to protect the victim's info from public.
So in latest news, last opposition figure in Russia dies together with any hope for regime change while Russia's war effort is starting to get some traction with it's overwhelming man power and Ukraine is forced to cede more territory all while west is busy either with it's in-fighting or comparing each others superior GDP and how Russia will crumble just any day now (TM). Man, are we in for a ride next decade in Europe, I would have never believed all this just a few years ago, how it will go down.
Europe deciding to depend on Russia for their energy and not focusing on defense spending is the unbelievable part to me, but they've been doing this for quite some time now. They walked right into it. Russia is doing what they've always done and always will do.
The strategy of economic integration as a way to reduce military tension has worked very well in many other instances. It doesn't seem like an obviously insane thing to have tried.
After the Fukushima disaster in 2011, Germany quickly moved away from nuclear power, with the last plant closing down in late 2023. Germany leads in renewable energy, but this swift change has left them with a big gap in energy security that might last until 2038.
"Russia is doing what they've always done and always will do."
Do you think those stereotypes are really helpful in understanding geopolitics? Traditionally what russia has always done(after it conquered its east), was being invaded, loosing lots of land, let the invader bleed out in the winter and then push back and win new territories.
Then russia as a monarchy was quite different to the sowjet union, the result of a marxist revolution with marxist agenda. And russia after the sowjet union was first weak and now they try to find strength in the traditional empire values again, religion and tsar. But it is not a given, that they will keep that, only if it works out for them. I hope it doesn't.
It was reasonable not to see Russia as enemy. It was well integrated into European trade and some political structures (PACE, NATO-Russia council etc) and there were even talks about visa-free travel between Russia and EU. What went wrong was the glacial speed of integration, letting the nationalist sentiment and disappointment in West grow. Post-WWII Europe was pacified through a political union between Germany and France, post-Cold War Europe should have done it too. Putin could be another Orban in the worst case.
Even though that is troublesome I think the absolute biggest issue was the West “helping” liberalize the Russian economy. I.e. giving away huge amounts of the Russian states resources to corrupt oligarchs with great help from London banks. It really set the stage for Putin in a big way.
Not deciding, but being told to do so by Germany who is infiltrated by Russians at every level of government, industry, and media. Allowing Germany to unify and giving the keys to the future of Europe to Germany was the biggest mistake the USA and Britain made after 1989.
I think it makes a lot more sense if you separate a country from their elite.
It seems quite clear that the German elite class had been wholly corrupted by Russia who offered them enrichment at the cost of Ukrainians and ultimately long term German security.
It makes a lot more sense when you look at how America's own elites sold out America to China.
All of this (charitably assuming good faith) was founded on the idea of inevitability. People thought peace was an inevitable result of trade, liberalization was an inevitable result of prosperity, and democratization an inevitable result of capitalism.
Navalty had some pretty scary things to say about Ukraine as well. To summarize: He thought there are no differences between Ukranian people and Russian people, he thinks that Crimea is rightfully Russia's (finder's keepers!), and he thinks it would be nice for Belarus and Ukraine to just be absorbed by Russia and become part of Russia again.
He was only against the war in Ukraine when it became obvious it was not going to be a three day one and done operation.
Some people in the West really tried to make him the face of opposition in Russia, but he was unpalatable to Eastern Europe, which no longer is a part of the world that doesn't count. The West, Western Europe in particular has to realign its diplomatic strategy and stop ignoring countries located between Moscow and Berlin.
Care to provide some links apart from 'they said it on fox news'? Its exactly the type of narrative putin would like to push to marginalize another high profile murder, and we have seen he can be an expert with playing foreign powers and media against each other
There's not so much infighting as there is a fascist fox in the hen-house (Orban). They still managed to get the €54bn aid package through this month - and that's just a Marshal Plan to set the country up for future EU membership. Germany alone has pledged €8bn in bilateral military aid for Ukraine this year, and there's a further €5bn coming from the coalition.
Vladimir Kara-Murza is a minor figure, one of the many others in jail, who are decent people but irrelevant politicians. 99% of Russians haven’t heard of him. At this moment the only active and relevant politician is Nadezhdin.
There are more oppositional figures, they’re simply barred from entry because it’s not a real democracy.
Russia is not gaining noteworthy traction. Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place aside from the fact that Russia is willing to impale itself at horrible odds to achieve any victory it can for optics.
"Both sides regard Avdiivka as key to Russia's aim of securing full control of the two eastern "Donbas" provinces - Donetsk and Luhansk. These are among the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of.
Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, whose residential areas Russian officials say have been shelled by Ukrainian forces, sometimes from Avdiivka."
I don't understand your point about optics. Why does Russia care about optics in this case? Ukraine has to care about optics because they are completely dependent on NATO aid for their survival at this point.
Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the whole front. Ukraine's lines aren't at imminent risk of collapsing, but they have a pretty serious shortage of artillery shells and other equipment, and it's taking a toll.
If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.
Considering he was thrown in the can for 30 years and his associates had left the country, I fail to see how the opposition dies with his death, rather than having died with his incarceration.
What keeps my hope for democracies in the world is an observation I made after reading The Year 2000 by Joseph Goebbels written on 25 February 1945. He more or less said that Stalin wasn't bound by the rules of democracies then he would succeed after all. I like to analyze such predictions because you know the outcome and you can guess what was wrong when someone wrote this. My version is that democracies have values kept while transitioning from a state to a state (after elections) while dictatorships change in many respects. It was visible in the Soviet Union, every new ruler brought a new system despite the fact that they all claimed to fight for the same goals.
Europe will now spend more on it’s own defence which is very good for the West and just horrible for Russia. Invading the EU is a different proposition to invading Ukraine. Invading a well-armed Europe is almost impossible.
This feels like the complacency that has meant Europe is almost entirely dependent on the US for credibile defence against Russia. Europe is not well-armed, as shown by the panicked response to Trump's threat to let NATO allies be attacked if they don't contribute enough to the budget, and it will take a long time to re-arm properly in the current economic climate. (For clarity, I think Trump's threat is terrible in many ways, but it has exposed NATO's fundamental dependence on the US)
"Invading a well-armed Europe is almost impossible."
- You don't get it. An alliance of china, russia, iran and north korea will be enabled to do whatever they want. Including invading or, more likely, hitting with missiles critical infrastructure in any Nato country with the exception of US and UK
Sad reality, from the pov of their neighbors, is that russian regime change wouldn't really change much on their side.
As much as it is incomprehensible for America, there are societies that do not value freedom from the very bottom to the very top - and Russia is one of them
>>... that russian regime change wouldn't really change much on their side.
there is more to this. The power there is usurped by a group of KGB officers, and they control all the government and power branches, etc (including even russian orthodox church). Any hypothetical elected outsider as a president will be coerced into doing what they demand. Anyone non-compliant will be eliminated.
Why does this surprise you? Russia just can't afford another Lenin during the war. Or another Yeltsin.
The last thing they need now is a fight for supremacy, similar to what we have in Ukraine, that would cripple their war effort and benefit only their enemies. The death or one of the opposition leaders may be considered as a small price to pay to avoid the 1917 like catastrophe. Today, with the abundance of nuclear weapons, the stakes for the whole world are much higher than then.
Let's keep in mind the man was no saint either, perhaps his regime would have preferred sending some rockets to the Georgian "rats" rather than Ukrainians.
>I would have never believed all this just a few years ago, how it will go down.
They have been following the same playbook since 2014. I'll tell you how it will go; Salami tactics.
Invasion of crimea,
Annexation of parts of georgia,
Annex Belarus,
Annex Kiev,
expand military and mining presence in the artic,
Incite war in serbia with other baltic states,
annex a modern yugoslavia.
At this point they will be the only major power who has been on a war footing for 10+ years. (US Skirmishes do not really count). They will have the inhouse manufacturing capabilities and knowledge to execute a ground war with the EU and will start by taking Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. I believe once they accomplish the above, they will be happy... for a generation or so.
Surely not the last opposition figure and Russia will run out of manpower as every attacker has a higher loss than the defender. You forget Lukashenko, he wasn't unwilling to let Belarus join the Russian Federation for no reason. As soon as Putin dies for whatever reason, Lukashenko will be the first to race to the Kremlin and take over.
Personally I have great hopes that an outsider like Kasparov could become President of Russia once Russia is defeated. He did attempt to run for presidency in 2007.
You do read the news? Ukraine is sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet ship by ship with cheap sea-drones. Ukraine is destroying Russian oil refineries and Russia has to reduce it's crude oil production now that India seems to saturated with cheap Russian oil.
On Ukraine ceding territory, I assume that's in case of a peace deal? Putin will sell that as a victory to the Russian people and prepare the next attack a few years later. This simply isn't an option for Europe to allow. Russia will crumble.
>> as every attacker has a higher loss than the defender
On what are you basing this assertion? I'm going to assume it's a flawed understanding of the oft-cited "3:1 rule", which a) isn't a rule, but a planning guideline b) never referred to casualty ratios, but to force ratios suggested for a successful attack.
>> Personally I have great hopes that an outsider like Kasparov could become President of Russia once Russia is defeated.
What influence does Kasparov have with Russia's security establishment? In other words, why would any of the men who actually wield power in the country support him?
Hoping for regime change in Russia? Am I insane, or are the supporters of the ongoing holdout of the Ukrainian government literally dreaming for WW3? Why the hell does anyone here give a shit who rules eastern Ukraine? Why are we sleepwalking into a geopolitical firestorm?
He never represented any real hope for regime change.
He was just a useful figurehead to attract sympathies from the west, but he never posed any threat to Putin and even if he somehow got into power he would do nothing to change Russia for the better.
He died (was killed) because he no longer served a purpose for Putin.
Not sure I remember the source, but even Navalny was not against Russia’s war to get its buffer zones back. Of course, if Navalny was able to magically overthrow Putin, it’d be harder for a democratic regime to fight an offensive war because no one wants to personally participate in a war.
Not sure about downvotes, but Navalny was definitely against bringing back Crimea to Ukraine.
In his own words: "Crimea is not a pastry to pass from hands to hands". After it becomes clear that "3 day" invasion of Ukraine is unsuccessful he changed his mind. But only after it, not before.
You forgot a chunk of the US right actively supporting Russia and praising Putin as savior of the West.
They aren’t the majority but are influential.
Xi Xinpeng should take a lesson here. Apparently all you have to do is dunk on gay people and pay lip service to right wing culture war stuff and they’ll roll over. You don’t even have to mean it. (Every core statistic the right claims to care about is worse in Russia like birth rate, divorce, abortion, etc.)
I hang out with people of a huge range of political views, from classical Marxist-Leninists to earnest tear-it-down anarchists, from neolib Obama stans to full magapedes.
I've yet to meet a single one who "actively supports Russia and praises Putin as savior of the West". Like, literally not one. The only time I've _ever_ heard this viewpoint uttered in North America is when people online are sketching it out online as a bogeyman. Even on the trashier, more marginal sides of Twitter it's still America First - I just don't know who these people are that you and others in this thread are so concerned about.
Have you personally met someone who believes that crap? Who, given the option, would prefer a world of Russian hegemony over American? I think we're getting mad at a population that in North America doesn't really exist in any meaningful way.
He has Princes waiting in his wings that will continue the same kleptocratic dictatorship in that country for decades to come. Nothing will change when he, hopefully soon, dies.
In the early 2000's it was rumored in the west that Putin's health was poor.
In 2008 the Pentagon authored a study that claimed that Putin had Asperger’s disease.
In 2010 there were more rumors about his bad health after being photographed with a black eye.
In 2012, more rumors after he postponed a visit to Japan.
In 2014 "sources" reported that he had cancer of the spinal cord. Other "sources" denied that report, and instead said it was pancreatic cancer.
In 2018, more health rumors, more "sources" saying that Putin was about to resign for health reasons.
In 2020, he still reportedly had cancer, along with Parkinson's disease. And also, leprosy.
Clearly a very, very sick man.
I hope I never get cancer. But if I ever do, I hope I have access to the very obviously incredible Russian medical facilities.
More seriously, you do realize this is the same propaganda that is rolled out every time there is a leader the US does not like? Putin may actually be ill, but you can't determine that from reading US news reports. They tell lies over and over and over.
The Ukraine war is a tragedy and I hope it ends soon.
But they have no economical & military power to really do any harm the Europe & the US. Putin makes a lot of noise but really can't even win a few km's in Ukraine.
But the real threat is further east. China is slowly building it's empire, and it's a scary one. Taking over parts of Africa. Migrating it's people. Integrating it's tech worldwide. Making the world dependent while building it's own full independence.
> But they have no economical & military power to really do any harm the Europe & the US. Putin makes a lot of noise but really can't even win a few km's in Ukraine.
Let's see how the situation in Avdiivka develops in the next few weeks. Ukraine is reinforcing the area, but it doesn't look good.
We've seen plenty of blunders by the russian army. But you should not underestimate your enemy.
Have you ever thought about what Russia's influence in the AI sector would be by now if they would have focused on developing it instead of starting a war? Developing it while pretending a peaceful cooperation with the West?
It might well be that China supports Russia's war effort so much because it knows that this way Russians will have zero time and resouces to focus on being an AI leader, and through it, a threat to China.
The biggest win for the US and China is that Russia will now never be at the cutting edge in AI development. The longer this war goes on, the better it will be for both the US and for China.
Even Europe will be more advanced than Russia during the next couple of decades.
Putin's Russia does not have a good track record of developing strategic projects with big R&D component. If anything, they spectacularly failed in space, in nanotechnology and other fields which were designated as strategic 15 years ago. All Russian successes were in commercial sector so far thanks to many technology entrepreneurs and ignorance of Soviet boomers - the generation currently in power. Despite the enormous brain drain, Russia may be now in a better position to start and make significant progress in something. Russia is traditionally better in mobilizing the nation in times of war than in peaceful times and it shows now, when they were able to scale military-industrial complex capacity very quickly.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navalny_(film)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF_HsKCWEHw (trailer)
From a practical point of view it may not be wise, but as a principled decision, it sends a very powerful message.
Navalny calculated that this process would be watched and documented through to the very end. He hoped that might be significant, perhaps even sufficient.
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Alexei believed in doing what’s right, not what’s easy. In his honour, let’s all do our part to help the truth prevail.
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Barred anti-war Russian presidential candidate [Boris Nadezhdin] fails in two legal challenges [0]
[0] https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/barred-anti-war-russian...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TV-6_(Russia)
But I guess why would he pretend to have democracy? The Russians certainly don't buy it, and the countries that might care have already cut all ties. I wonder why he bothers to have the election charade?
If he wouldn't be able to regularly display that he has control over the country, it'll be easier for some opportunistic group to organize a coup..
There simply aren't enough young men there to keep the Russian population growing and the population there doesn't value diversity enough to consider producing more Russian children with immigrants.
This is what many believe (e.g., Peter Zeihan) to be the real reason behind the invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is "Russian enough" in their eyes, so combining the two populations would help stave off demographic collapse.
This does not make any sense. Banning birth-control would be the most cost-effective way to increase the birth-rate, stronger social programs being a strong second.
Much of what I've heard from Zeihan sound memey – like camp-fire stories or what your older brothers friends would tell you – without anything meaningful to back it up.
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Still sucks it had to come to this. But I agree, this wasn't the unexpected outcome.
I truly hope his death will not be in vain.
As I mentioned earlier - does anyone remember the guy who flew over Belarus and had his plane redirected to the capital, and he was seized there. He also was a protester, now forgotten. I do not even remember his name and never heard of him since then.
Navalny on the other hand has done many notable things and was in the news all the time before his death. His is the first name you think of when you think of Russian opposition. This is not a valid comparison.
Navalny all but certainly was aware of his likely martyrdom, and appears to have won that. I have my doubts that he will be more effective as a martyr than he would have been acting in exile. In addition to whatever organisation remains, he does leave both a wife and daughter, though whether or not they'll carry on his fight I don't know.
The news today is not unexpected, but disappointing all the same.
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The west needs to wake up, we're slowly sliding towards a world conflict. This is going to get worse before it gets better.
Edit: Russia is pushing westward not eastward!
Is there any examples in history of appeasement leading to less bloodshed?
There's a lot of things the West can do without throwing nukes at the problem:
- arming ourselves and our allies (especially Taiwan) to the teeth
- supporting exiled and in-country opposition
- intervening against hostile operations (such as "police stations") on our own soil
- strengthen links with "global south" countries to minimize Chinese/Russian influence on them, support local rebels against regimes that have already fallen towards Russia/China.
Generally you avoid conflict by being scary, not agreeable.
Russia does not honor the rules of law so we should not negotiate with them in good faith. They are a terrorist state.
The only solution are preemptive strikes against Russian interests.I'm proposing we wake up and start doing the same, planning and drawing "do not cross" lines in the sand to hopefully limit the total/final scope of the conflict.
Yes this will force an earlier confrontation -- but WWII would have been a lot less bloody if Europe had stood up to Hitler earlier -- problem was everyone thought that appeasing him would make things better.
It's clear both Russia and China can't be appeased at this point. Both need to be checked.
As if the west hasn't already destabilized the middle east for many decades now.
We are screwed in the long run because there is no antidote to this that is compatible with our constitution.
> The west needs to wake up, we're slowly sliding towards a world conflict. This is going to get worse before it gets better.
I think there's an essential connection there: The West's values and their power, and peace and freedom. The West's power comes from its values, not only because it captures the hearts and minds of others but because the power freedom and universal human rights gives to its own people.
As many in the West disparage or undermine those values, they are doing the work of Putin and Xi (at times, I'm sure, led by their disinformation campaigns).
No more time for games. It's time, as you say, to wake up and stand up for our values.
This makes a nice tweet. But what does it actually mean in practice?
I don't have evidence, but my gut says that's not by accident. This slippery slope we've been heading down for the last few decades (no more right and wrong, all values are equal, anyone who says otherwise is a problem/oppressor/colonizer) look to me like a well funded / coordinated / long term political warfare campaign in order to build a country of "appeasers". People who refuse to stand up for anything -- we all know that's how bullies win.
I often wonder how much of what we're doing to ourselves is actually being funded by bad actors, fake patriots, etc.
I don't trust any free news. Someone is paying for a message to be delivered to my eyeballs, and I don't know who that is. Maybe 1% of stories are from bad actors, maybe it's 25%. Who knows? The answer matters -- a lot.
No one trusts anyone anymore. We've lost faith in our government and each other. No better way to conquer a nation than from within.
Things were set in motion years ago and they are slowly unraveling. When the West rejected Russia's deeper integration into its structures after the Cold War ended and expanded NATO towards the East this path was set in stone. The late 2000s were the absolute breaking point.
Major Eastern players are asymmetrically breaking US hegemony through proxies and internal conflict. They cannot face the US conventionally but it doesn't mean they cannot face the US. They can, they do and they will continue to do so.
Brexit, MAGA, Mideast conflicts, Ukraine, EU refugee crisis, inflation, energy crisis, recent development in North Korea, social media disinformation etc. etc. etc.
The BRICS countries (and others) are pursuing a multipolar, non-democratic world with heavily reduced US influence over Asia and Europe, who are now discussing defense independence and their own nuclear umbrella after Trump strategically placed some Russian talking points (again).
Your point would have been better made without weaseling in a Mearsheimer apology for authoritarian states. Russia snatching Ukraine has absolutely nothing to do with NATO's expansion. Indeed, had NATO expanded earlier, we wouldn't have found ourselves in this mess, with Ukraine left to fend for itself.
NATO grew because of the desperation of former USSR satellites to shelter themselves from their abuser.
As to the other bit here about rejecting Russian integration as a cause for war: I think that point has been proven quite wrong with Merkel's absurd fantasy that trade with Russia would bring peace.
How can an individual have both the critical thinking and still have the gut to contribute to this?
I grew up in rural russia. It's much much worse than what you see on the facade. My neighbour was a police man. His 15 years boy raped a kid from local orphanage and captured it on a video. No justice followed, because his dad is a policeman. No one spoke up. Everyone just accepted it, as they always do. When he grew up he became a policeman. It's not even the most screwed up story that I witnessed. This is beyond fucked up.
It's a case of mass inheritable PTSD. All males I knew in my family tree were violent drunks, all females were bitten up housewives. This place is surreal and should not exist. And my family was somewhat functional compared to some neighbours.
I abandoned everything there and got out as soon as I could make any money. I wish every person capable of critical thinking just leave this dreadful place and let it descend to the middle ages.
Personal experience has taught me that critical thinking does not nessecarily go hand in hand with the ability and/or the guts to push for change.
Many who move through corporate worlds do so for personal gains, and will not speak out against or put them selves in the spotlight to fix issues that might reflect badly on their upward progress in the hierarchy.
And from my interaction of these kinds of people, they have often been very intelligent.
I believe the same behaviour and motives sadly exist for many in modern day societies.
It is very hard to put myself in their shoes, and contort my brain to make their actions feel like a thing I could do.
In the following wikipedia article Russia's murder rate is near the world's avearage, close to the US, and 8 times lower than Jamaika. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intenti...
I don't begrudge you for doing that, as I would have done (and basically did) the same. But that also highlights how a lot of these places get more fucked up over time.
The same thing is happening/has happened in the US. Basically, nearly all of the opportunity has moved from rural areas to urban and suburban ones. So basically anyone with the slightest modicum of ambition gets up and leaves. So all the people that are left are the people (a) without ambition or (b) are stuck there for other reasons (e.g. lots of early pregnancy). But the end result is those rural areas fall further behind, and many of the people that stay there become even more embittered about their lot. In the US the effect is even more pronounced because rural areas have outsized voting rights due to the way the electoral college and Senate work.
Humanity must ensure that an individual has the way to realize their potential. Freedom to raise and freedom to fall.
The internet changed everything. The information flowing freely and allowing critical thinkers to get out of a swamp they found themselves in. At least this gives everyone a chance to see.
The other thing is immigration. Your case about the US is thankfully different because one can get on a car and leave to another state or urban area. It's not as easy to get out of russia. Get a visa first. Maybe. If you have education and fit into a category. Do not fit? Too bad, there are great places like Kazakhstan that are available though.
About 8% of the world suffers from PTSD symptoms. There was a recent study done in Poland that said over 15% of population has symptoms. It is generational PTSD from WW2.
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I think it might've already...
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Then submit it to authorities: investigative commitee, child ombudsmen, prosecutor's office, etc. Not local, but higher, maybe even central.
If the video is available, submit it too.
If not adressed by all authorities (unlikely), go public with the specific and detailed information.
Make sure to protect the victim's info from public.
This thread is in the midst of discussion of a public person tortured for 3 years and murdered and the whole country knows that.
What authorities are you talking about? It's criminals upon criminals.
Why past tense? Still walking...
Do you think those stereotypes are really helpful in understanding geopolitics? Traditionally what russia has always done(after it conquered its east), was being invaded, loosing lots of land, let the invader bleed out in the winter and then push back and win new territories.
Then russia as a monarchy was quite different to the sowjet union, the result of a marxist revolution with marxist agenda. And russia after the sowjet union was first weak and now they try to find strength in the traditional empire values again, religion and tsar. But it is not a given, that they will keep that, only if it works out for them. I hope it doesn't.
So defense spending as prevention of war isn't really a thing either. Nor is winning them (forget Afghanistan?)
It seems quite clear that the German elite class had been wholly corrupted by Russia who offered them enrichment at the cost of Ukrainians and ultimately long term German security.
It makes a lot more sense when you look at how America's own elites sold out America to China.
All of this (charitably assuming good faith) was founded on the idea of inevitability. People thought peace was an inevitable result of trade, liberalization was an inevitable result of prosperity, and democratization an inevitable result of capitalism.
He was only against the war in Ukraine when it became obvious it was not going to be a three day one and done operation.
He did recant any notion of Ukrainians being Russian. He also asserted ukrainians Right to independent self-governing.
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The writing is on the wall for a while now, the only problem is that people talking about it are promptly labeled as not worthy of being listened to
Exactly, did people forget Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014? Let's not be naive here.
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https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-eu-aid-funding...
Also are we just ignoring Vladimir Kara-Murza in terms of opposition figures fighting for regime change?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/14/putin-ukr...
Russia is not gaining noteworthy traction. Avdiivka is a tiny pointless place aside from the fact that Russia is willing to impale itself at horrible odds to achieve any victory it can for optics.
"Both sides regard Avdiivka as key to Russia's aim of securing full control of the two eastern "Donbas" provinces - Donetsk and Luhansk. These are among the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of. Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, whose residential areas Russian officials say have been shelled by Ukrainian forces, sometimes from Avdiivka."
-- Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-does-russia-want-ca...
I don't understand your point about optics. Why does Russia care about optics in this case? Ukraine has to care about optics because they are completely dependent on NATO aid for their survival at this point.
If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.
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Funny, the world had the same thought in 1936.
- You don't get it. An alliance of china, russia, iran and north korea will be enabled to do whatever they want. Including invading or, more likely, hitting with missiles critical infrastructure in any Nato country with the exception of US and UK
As much as it is incomprehensible for America, there are societies that do not value freedom from the very bottom to the very top - and Russia is one of them
The last thing they need now is a fight for supremacy, similar to what we have in Ukraine, that would cripple their war effort and benefit only their enemies. The death or one of the opposition leaders may be considered as a small price to pay to avoid the 1917 like catastrophe. Today, with the abundance of nuclear weapons, the stakes for the whole world are much higher than then.
They have been following the same playbook since 2014. I'll tell you how it will go; Salami tactics.
Invasion of crimea, Annexation of parts of georgia, Annex Belarus, Annex Kiev, expand military and mining presence in the artic, Incite war in serbia with other baltic states, annex a modern yugoslavia.
At this point they will be the only major power who has been on a war footing for 10+ years. (US Skirmishes do not really count). They will have the inhouse manufacturing capabilities and knowledge to execute a ground war with the EU and will start by taking Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. I believe once they accomplish the above, they will be happy... for a generation or so.
Personally I have great hopes that an outsider like Kasparov could become President of Russia once Russia is defeated. He did attempt to run for presidency in 2007.
You do read the news? Ukraine is sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet ship by ship with cheap sea-drones. Ukraine is destroying Russian oil refineries and Russia has to reduce it's crude oil production now that India seems to saturated with cheap Russian oil.
On Ukraine ceding territory, I assume that's in case of a peace deal? Putin will sell that as a victory to the Russian people and prepare the next attack a few years later. This simply isn't an option for Europe to allow. Russia will crumble.
On what are you basing this assertion? I'm going to assume it's a flawed understanding of the oft-cited "3:1 rule", which a) isn't a rule, but a planning guideline b) never referred to casualty ratios, but to force ratios suggested for a successful attack.
>> Personally I have great hopes that an outsider like Kasparov could become President of Russia once Russia is defeated.
What influence does Kasparov have with Russia's security establishment? In other words, why would any of the men who actually wield power in the country support him?
The question to me was more what happens after? Terrorism inside Russia for years? Low bip for decades?
Nato setting a clear border
Trump winning would be bad news for Ukraine, but in practical terms they've already been thrown under the bus by Republicans in Congress.
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He was just a useful figurehead to attract sympathies from the west, but he never posed any threat to Putin and even if he somehow got into power he would do nothing to change Russia for the better.
He died (was killed) because he no longer served a purpose for Putin.
Also slowly folding. It is not happening only in little countries like Slovakia. US has relevant party that is now openly pro-Putin.
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What relevant party in the US is openly pro-Putin?
I assume you don't know much about Slovakia besides the few headlines that pop here and there, right ?
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They aren’t the majority but are influential.
Xi Xinpeng should take a lesson here. Apparently all you have to do is dunk on gay people and pay lip service to right wing culture war stuff and they’ll roll over. You don’t even have to mean it. (Every core statistic the right claims to care about is worse in Russia like birth rate, divorce, abortion, etc.)
I've yet to meet a single one who "actively supports Russia and praises Putin as savior of the West". Like, literally not one. The only time I've _ever_ heard this viewpoint uttered in North America is when people online are sketching it out online as a bogeyman. Even on the trashier, more marginal sides of Twitter it's still America First - I just don't know who these people are that you and others in this thread are so concerned about.
Have you personally met someone who believes that crap? Who, given the option, would prefer a world of Russian hegemony over American? I think we're getting mad at a population that in North America doesn't really exist in any meaningful way.
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In 2008 the Pentagon authored a study that claimed that Putin had Asperger’s disease.
In 2010 there were more rumors about his bad health after being photographed with a black eye.
In 2012, more rumors after he postponed a visit to Japan.
In 2014 "sources" reported that he had cancer of the spinal cord. Other "sources" denied that report, and instead said it was pancreatic cancer.
In 2018, more health rumors, more "sources" saying that Putin was about to resign for health reasons.
In 2020, he still reportedly had cancer, along with Parkinson's disease. And also, leprosy.
Clearly a very, very sick man.
I hope I never get cancer. But if I ever do, I hope I have access to the very obviously incredible Russian medical facilities.
More seriously, you do realize this is the same propaganda that is rolled out every time there is a leader the US does not like? Putin may actually be ill, but you can't determine that from reading US news reports. They tell lies over and over and over.
The Ukraine war is a tragedy and I hope it ends soon.
But they have no economical & military power to really do any harm the Europe & the US. Putin makes a lot of noise but really can't even win a few km's in Ukraine.
But the real threat is further east. China is slowly building it's empire, and it's a scary one. Taking over parts of Africa. Migrating it's people. Integrating it's tech worldwide. Making the world dependent while building it's own full independence.
And the US couldn't win against a few thousand goat farmers with Ak47s, or maybe there this is a bit more complex...
Let's see how the situation in Avdiivka develops in the next few weeks. Ukraine is reinforcing the area, but it doesn't look good.
We've seen plenty of blunders by the russian army. But you should not underestimate your enemy.
Have you ever thought about what Russia's influence in the AI sector would be by now if they would have focused on developing it instead of starting a war? Developing it while pretending a peaceful cooperation with the West?
It might well be that China supports Russia's war effort so much because it knows that this way Russians will have zero time and resouces to focus on being an AI leader, and through it, a threat to China.
The biggest win for the US and China is that Russia will now never be at the cutting edge in AI development. The longer this war goes on, the better it will be for both the US and for China.
Even Europe will be more advanced than Russia during the next couple of decades.