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ckemere · 4 days ago
I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly.

If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

To be clear, at that order of magnitude they might make back their investment, but it won’t be 10x or 100x, and the potential healthy-brain-connected-to-the-AI play is much less rooted in reality than Teslas all becoming taxis.

Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product. I think that’s the one question I wish the author had asked…

rc5150 · 4 days ago
The unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle, which I think is the common perspective; optics and money.

Then there's the pessimists, like me, wondering how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up.

JumpCrisscross · 4 days ago
> unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle

It’s just a pragmatic take on sustainability of innovation. If nobody—no person or government or non-profit—would find value in the future of the work, it merits questioning why do it versus something else.

herculity275 · 4 days ago
> how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up

It's really hard for me to imagine that making more logistic sense than the current state of affairs - which is hiring armies of poor able-bodied people in developing countries.

notarobot123 · 4 days ago
It does kinda feel like there's an accidental attempt to LARP the plot of Kurt Vonnegut's The Sirens of Titan (if you squint hard enough) - richest man in the world, brain control, Mars colony, attempted coup on Earth... all the plot points are there!
h0h0h0h0111 · 4 days ago
I don't think it's unfortunate - in principle, return on investment today can achieve greater humanitarian impact tomorrow vs humanitarian impact today.

Of course, this creates a perverse situation where choosing humanitarian impact today over investment is always irrational, but this is the fundamental tension in charity vs investment, and aside from relying on governments and guilt, I'm not sure we have discovered a great model to solve it

Almondsetat · 4 days ago
If something cannot stand on its own two legs, then it can be the most awesome stuff in the world but it will die nonetheless. Being self-sustainable (i.e. profitable) greatly helps with keeping the show going. The alternative is either becoming publicly owned (i.e. paid with your taxes whether you want it or not) or to fail miserably and have all your technology and talent scattered.
DoesntMatter22 · 4 days ago
To me that's the greatest part. Probably everyone working on this is interested in the humanitarian angle, and they know this can benefit potentially millions. But ROI is partly what's required to make it sustainable long term. And that's a great thing to me. It motivates business people to put money into it.
wordofx · 4 days ago
Things are only created or expanded if there is a return. Its that simple.

Dead Comment

positron26 · 4 days ago
Probably a decent reason that all such augmentations need to be built on open technologies. If no provider can guarantee future support, only open strategies are even viable for users.
JumpCrisscross · 4 days ago
> decent reason that all such augmentations need to be built on open technologies

Open is a red herring. Mandate documentation and bonding for long-term support. If the cheapest way to provide those are through an open-source platform, great. If not, that’s also fine. Patient outcomes outweigh ideological preferences.

lynx97 · 4 days ago
Open Source Accessibility isn't sustainable right now. How on earth do you imagine open medical hardware to ever reach a level where it is generally useful to people with disabilities?

In general, I find the negativity in this whole thread very sad. If I were in the situation were I was looking forward for technology like this, and I'd read the comments here, they would make me very sad. Because in essence, I would learn that politics is more important to some SV people than actual progress.

Frankly, if Elon ended up creating a technology that helps people, I wouldn't care about his politics at all. I'd be damn grateful for someone investing in something that ended up helping me. But obviously, politics trumps empathy here, which is very very sad.

I am still a magnitude off regarding 100k for assistive technologies, but sufficiently large braille displays cost 10k$ to 15k$ in Europe. That is a plain display of 80!!! characters in a single line. No 1080p, mind you. This has been the case since I am alive. The costs are mostly driven by redistriibutors, who usually add around 70% when importing from the US. Do I feel exploited? No, I am glad the technology exists. And frankly, if you have any empathy left, you should as well.

chakintosh · 4 days ago
The endgame for Neuralink here, and most other competitors in the field is to use these transplants on healthy people as well to "enhance" human function.
hnthrowawayacct · 4 days ago
One of the biggest unsolved issues with BCI and neural implants is the immune response to implanted electrodes. The tissue buildup and fluid that encapsulates the probe or stimulator drastically increases the impedance of the device and causes all sorts of hard to solve problems for longevity of the implant and whatever therapy or recording it's trying to accomplish.
latexr · 4 days ago
> Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product.

That’s not even close to the worst case scenario. There are many worse outcomes than the product becoming inoperative, such as it malfunctioning in a way that significantly worsens the person’s quality of life, or its creator deliberately holding functionality hostage. Musk is known for being incredibly petty and thin skinned, I wonder how he’d react to Neuralink users doing or saying things he doesn‘t agree with.

I am genuinely glad this participant and presumably others have a new chance at quality of life, but it would be better if the one in control of the technology weren’t a private individual with such a history, and that the process to reach this milestone had been handled more responsibly and respectfully.

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-pcrm-neuralink-monkey-...

wolvesechoes · 4 days ago
> If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

Until subscription price is increased.

thinkingtoilet · 4 days ago
After nearly two decades of flat out lying about Tesla's capabilities and then the last year of insane lies, I literally don't believe anything that comes out of any of his companies. Perhaps you do.
MrResearcher · 4 days ago
It's not really a lie, it's so-called "make-belief", which entrepreneurs exude in order to justify their own time and money investment, as well as spreading it to the army of employees. This sort of delusion is necessary for the inaugural period of concept development, until you prove whether the concept is viable or not. Some people call it vision. It is an entirely fictional concept, of course. Sometimes you stumble onto something working that gets traction. Then this lie turns into reality, and the entrepreneur is raised to the rank of prophets.

In other words, he doesn't do it out of malice. These are the rules of the game.

Cthulhu_ · 4 days ago
From a capitalist point of view, Neuralink will only become profitable and valuable if they go full sci-fi and offer a brain/computer interface that anyone can use, AND that there's systems and applications that use it, AND that it becomes popular and "better" than e.g. smartphones.

But that last one is the kicker. AR never became mainstream. Unless a brain interface is faster and more intuitive than e.g. a physical keyboard, it will never become mainstream either.

kaliqt · 4 days ago
AR will become mainstream with time. It's a question of UX which has very heavy investment behind it.
torginus · 4 days ago
VCs don't actually like risk, and can't distinguish snake-oil from groundbreaking inventions - more news at 11

Dead Comment

maxlin · 4 days ago
Companies like this going under is a horror story for the patients I've seen playing out a few times. But I honestly can't see something as public and well-funded having the same fate. "Elon Musk losing interest" isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do. He loves the tech and the ideals, and Neuralink is past the point of ever being potentially a dud
vasco · 4 days ago
Ah yes he just became a billionnaire because he isn't money motivated and just loves tech. If only we all loved tech as much as Elon and money as little as Elon does.
LunaSea · 4 days ago
> isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do

Is that why he sued to obtain his $29B package from Tesla shareholders?

ValentinPearce · 4 days ago
> he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do

I'm pretty sure he does, his actions in government and his lobbying were specifically so he made more money. He does love the tech, though I'm not as optimistic about his love of the ideals (but that might be the socialist in me talking).

I'm am wary about how brain implants could be abused further down the line, but for now it's not the main thing I'm looking at with Neuralink. It seems to be a positive change for the patient, and if costs can be reduced to make it affordable to the masses, it can be a great thing.a

SilverBirch · 4 days ago
Sorry what? You couldn't have picked a better example of someone who is going get bored, walk off and leave customers screwed. Tesla customers bought a full self-driving car about a decade ago. Where is it? Oh yes, that's right. Elon Musk lost interest and now he's over at neuralink sticking electrodes in this guys head. This guy better hope that Elon doesn't get bored again.
xyst · 4 days ago
> The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+

Nobody gives a shit about the iNvEsToR rEtUrN on iNveStMeNt. This is a humanitarian project which should be owned by the people, not a select few billionaires or investors to license out and dangle yet another expense, subscription, or ad model.

DoesntMatter22 · 4 days ago
Nothing is stopping them from doing it. You sound mad that he's actually out there making it happen because some theoretical humanitarian project should. Why not be happy he's actually out there solving this for people and the fact that real people are materially benefitting?
freedomben · 4 days ago
Why aren't any humanitarian organizations doing it currently?
CrimsonRain · 4 days ago
WHo iS SToPPiNg YoU?

Typical communist attitude.

g42gregory · 4 days ago
Don’t forget, we are currently running “Elon is bad” narrative.

Apparently, many people listen.

Xss3 · 4 days ago
He objectively is a bad person and a notorious liar.
multjoy · 4 days ago
Did you somehow sleep through the whole doge debacle?
nzrf · 4 days ago
That’s last point reminds me of the Second Sight situation where they abonan their tech. Previously discussed https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30349871
picafrost · 5 days ago
I think anyone who chooses to undergo the first few trials of a new operation like this, and is informed about the risks, is very brave. I do not know much of anything about medical science, but my impression is that we are still very, very far from having a deep grasp of how both the brain and the immune system work. Ultimately, to the body an implant is simply a foreign object.

Many tech professionals work on projects that effect people's lives in very serious ways. But a lot of folk seem to feel a bit of meaninglessness in this career and the threshold of making a mistake isn't very high. If it's an off day, sloppy work yesterday can be fixed with another PR.

Building something that is meant to attach to someone's brain would be quite the burden to carry.

iamacyborg · 4 days ago
> I think anyone who chooses to undergo the first few trials of a new operation like this, and is informed about the risks, is very brave.

Brave and/or incredibly desperate.

alhirzel · 4 days ago
> would be quite the burden to carry

only if you care

maxlin · 4 days ago
The kind of amount of regulation around this makes me think they are not in that big of a danger, especially as previous devices in this class are way more invasive than Neuralink. I remember that even in their earliest own presentations the width of the "wires" is fraction to previous solutions
542354234235 · 3 days ago
Once again, regulation getting in the way of innovation in the name of "safety". Why can't we just sacrifice the vulnerable so I can think messages to my iPhone!
ignoramous · 5 days ago
> Ultimately, to the body an implant is simply a foreign object.

I get your point but, there's a lot of foreign objects going in by the way of various pores and openings. Biological beings are surprisingly resilient & fragile at the same time.

bandrami · 4 days ago
Those openings lead to spaces that are not "inside" the body, though. For deuterostomes like humans, the digestive tract is still "outside" in a lot of important ways.
jibal · 5 days ago
Not remotely the same thing.
znpy · 4 days ago
I think you narfed your own point by using objects getting into various pores and openings.

Pacemakers are somewhat similar devices that get implanted into bodies and still effectively are "foreign objects".

devinprater · 5 days ago
I'll let other blind people go first, but I'm definitely some one that would love, love, love to be able to see. Driving, knowing body language, playing any and every video game out there, shoot yeah!
ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 · 4 days ago
I hope that you get that opportunity one day.
fracus · 5 days ago
From what I've read, if you are blind from birth, but visual signals were suddenly restored, your brain wouldn't know how to process them. Blind from birth = blind forever. I'm not certain though.
asveikau · 4 days ago
"Blind" has way more of a wide definition than we usually appreciate.

I volunteer at a food pantry. There is one old lady who is sometimes rude in the line, shoving through saying "move it, I'm blind!!" She sometimes informs me that produce I hand her has black spots and she doesn't want it.

I believe she may actually be legally blind.

cobbzilla · 4 days ago
Some part of this is true, but it’s complicated.

I lack stereoscopic vision, due to eye surgery in infancy & wildly different focal lengths in each eye (one is very nearsighted, the other farsighted).

I can still see in 3D because my brain uses tricks like relative object size, shadows, and sometimes I move my head laterally so my farsighted eye gets different angles on an object (“faking” stereoscopic vision with one eye).

Nonetheless, catching a ball thrown straight at me is very difficult— I have to judge the size at which the circle is getting larger, and know the actual size of the ball. It often hits me in the hand and I try to grab it before it bounces away.

And I can never see those stereogram images where it looks like static unless you focus both eyes at some distance. I never see the world with both eyes simultaneously.

I once got glasses that corrected my vision “perfectly” but got major headaches and couldn’t wear them. Objects were in focus in both eyes, but were wildly different sizes!

I went to an ophthalmologist who basically told me they can correct my lenses but in my brain “the wiring is shot”.

I mostly work in front of a computer screen. I now use reading glasses so that when my nearsighted eye gets tired, I can put them on and continue working with my farsighted eye. These glasses have only a minor correction on the nearsighted eye so they don’t give me headaches.

vjvjvjvjghv · 5 days ago
I think the brain would adapt. It may take a while but the brain is very flexible and adaptable.

Deleted Comment

jesterswilde · 4 days ago
The exact same comment I would write. Waitin for generation two of any of this kind of tech.
xyst · 4 days ago
> I'll let other desperate people go first

FTFY.

cameroncarlg · 4 days ago
Calling them desperate seems rude. Why judge the participants? Not everyone has access to other SOTA solutions and if this is the next best thing for them, why not.
BrandoElFollito · 5 days ago
Why would you not go first? If you are blind it cannot be worse (well it can, but there are always risks).

My wife went through semi-expetimental therapy (at that time) for her MS. It was tough but ultimately a net benefit.

It all depends on what is at stake - I would consider Ozempic for some weight loss but prefer, for now, go for no sugar and moderate portions. This is not life changing for me so I indeed prefer people who will benefit way more from it to go first.

crote · 5 days ago
It's a brain chip. How do you feel about being blind and paralyzed? Or comatose? Or dead? How about never-ending pain or constant bright flashes? What if they go bankrupt, and something happens to the implant?

Brain surgery isn't exactly an industry where "move fast and break things" is an acceptable approach - especially when you are the patient. Considering Neuralink's historical record, going first sounds like a horrible idea to me.

justin66 · 5 days ago
> If you are blind it cannot be worse

Holy moly.

mathiaspoint · 5 days ago
From a game theory perspective it's very rare for it to make sense to be the first to try new medical interventions.
NoPicklez · 4 days ago
I guess I don't have a similar thought process as someone who thinks going no sugar is the right way to achieve weight loss.

The reason you might think twice about going first is for that exact reason, there are risks. Plenty of blind people would prefer to stay as they are than be left worse off to a greater degree after undergoing the implant.

Levitz · 4 days ago
It's a lifelong change and whatever the state of the first release is, chances are in 5 years time there'll be a better version and everything is safer.
ecshafer · 5 days ago
what therapy did your wife go through?
anthk · 5 days ago
That's funny because Ozempic can blind you.
NitpickLawyer · 7 days ago
There is a great podcast with the entire team + Noland on yt. It is ~ 8h long, but IMO it's worth the time. You get to hear things from the perspective of the chief brain surgeon, hardware team, software team, and of course Noland himself. I really recommend it, to get a better understanding of what's possible, what they had to do to get there, and how impactful this kind of research is for people with terrible conditions.
maxlin · 4 days ago
I love and hate this type of Lex Friedman interviews. Several factors give out when there's a podcast that is posted uncut with a 8 hour length that I'd like to listen to. Wish he cut them!
alanbernstein · 4 days ago
I completely relate - but I listened to this one, alone, in full. Technology has produced many things you might call a miracle, but this one stands out.
Veserv · 5 days ago
Still the same depraved head of neurosurgery, Dr. Matthew MacDougall, who said: "If tomorrow laws were changed and the FDA said okay you can do some of this early experimentation in willing human participants that would be a very interesting option I think there would be a lot of people that would step up." [1]

That is basically the textbook definition of unethical medical practice, so unquestionably far over the line of acceptable practice that you would have to be willfully ignorant to defend it, and they think it would be exciting if it were not banned.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZGItIAUQmI&t=5239s

dvt · 5 days ago
> That is basically the textbook definition of unethical medical practice

This is an extremely uncharitable interpretation of what was said. First of all, it's really hard to get malpractice here, as consent is implied (unless you'd think he'd purposefully do a bad or sloppy job). You could say it's irresponsible, and that argument holds more water, but when folks are in these terrible situations (i.e. terminally ill, etc.), a strong argument could also be that it's morally impermissible to disallow them to partake in such experimental treatments.

In any case, it's an interesting moral conundrum, akin to abortion or euthanasia.

mchusma · 4 days ago
I think this comment highlights how bad the state of “medical ethics” is. Barring informed people from getting treatments they want is unethical in my book. Full stop. The entire apparatus is built on shoddy backwards ethics.
Noumenon72 · 5 days ago
These kind of takes often place a higher value on people's life than they would place on their own. We should let people choose MAID if that's the best outcome for their lives, and we should let them risk their health for science. It's up to them whether they feel they have anything left to lose.

This is aside from the harm it does to the rest of us to prevent experimentation by willing participants, such as barring human challenge trials to quickly test Covid vaccines.

vasco · 4 days ago
If it were up to you I bet we couldn't ride motorcycles or jump out of airplanes either.
kridsdale3 · 5 days ago
Who are you to decide what is acceptable? This type of moral system is entirely cultural.
jibal · 5 days ago
It was a rational speculation about people's behavior, not any sort of medical practice.
explodes · 7 days ago
This tech is incredible but it will be very divisive. Leadership of the current leading company notwithstanding, novel implants such as pacemakers have also undergone a stage of social caution that I would very much expect to surface for brain-interface devices as well, if not more fervently due to an increasing mistrust in technology's utility in our lives.

I am personally hopeful for this technology. I know it will be able to improve the lives of loved ones who both need and want it. I am also afraid of a technology that can decide my thoughts one way or another...

That said, I'll take two.

xg15 · 5 days ago
Divisive is an understatement.

If this tech could be made to work flawlessly, it would be the gate to all the SciFi cyborg stuff, including body enhancements, "telepathy", etc.

Also, as a "side effect", it would open a path to fully immersive VR, as in Matrix, Snow Crash, Neuromancer, etc - with all the upsides and downsides of those scenarios.

All that "just" from hooking up motor and sensor neurons. And then people would probably start and mess with neurons that are involved in cognitive functions and the consciousness.

If generative AI had potential for cultish behavior, I think that will pale in comparison to this stuff.

germinalphrase · 5 days ago
The dystopian downside is significant. It is not difficult to come up with half a dozen horrific outcomes of this technology.
downrightmike · 5 days ago
It killed the vast majority of animals used for testing. Two would probably yield that result for you
cromulent · 5 days ago
Friends with Parkinson's with neural implants anecdotally report great results, but of course with rather coarse tech. There seems to be lots of future potential.

https://www.parkinson.org/living-with-parkinsons/treatment/s...

jauzeyimam · 5 days ago
My brother has had YOPD since his late 20s. He got DBS done about 3 years ago, and it was life changing. Not only in the symptom reduction (tremors and rigidity significantly reduced -- he walked straight for the first time in years, could button his shirts again, etc), but also in lifestyle improvements around the amount and frequency of medication, the ability to sleep properly (several side effects of both PD and the meds affect sleep), the ability for his body to actually relax.

DBS, like you said, is rather course tech and actually quite old technology. Doctors still don't entirely know why it works, so the adjustment is often experimental. In fact prior to specialized MRI machines that they use during surgery now, the patients would remain awake during the placement (brain surgery) of the electrodes so that the surgeons would know when the placement was "correct" based on real-time assessment of their symptoms. Now they do it under MRI, but the point being it's far from an exact science.

Can't wait to see what the future holds as they improve on it. Hard to imagine a world where his symptoms are fully managed (PD is progressive degeneration, so his symptoms, even with DBS are gradually worsening with time), but it was also hard to imagine how DBS could overnight change his life in the ways it did.

mwigdahl · 5 days ago
My daughter has DBS for severe Tourette's. Her quality of life before the implant was horrible -- frequent 110 dB+ screams and self-injury. The implant has reduced her tic frequency and intensity by easily 95%. It's not only given her her life back but also the lives of her family members.

The potential of brain interface technology is truly incredible -- both for good and ill.

nibblenum · 5 days ago
Has this been used for other health issues too?
iancmceachern · 4 days ago
Yes, it comes from pacemaker tech, and is used for all kinds of dbs applications like this and also for pain blocking applications
abrookewood · 4 days ago
This is genuinely exciting, but I still can't help thinking about the Black Mirror episode where a woman requires a subscription to stay alive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_People_(Black_Mirror)
cal85 · 4 days ago
Don’t we all need subscriptions to stay alive?
daveguy · 4 days ago
No.
SV_BubbleTime · 4 days ago
A lot of potential for that episode. And I still love Roy, but I feel like that episode was a shallow as hell take on subscription services. Could have been a lot more.
rudderdev · 4 days ago
Too much marketing speak without the demo. I have read this long article and did read some more related content on the internet, so let me summarize it for you.

With Neuralink,

- Noland can control cursor of his computer - He can schedule calendar meetings - He can control his purifier, television, etc. - He can play games like mario kart

I could only find this demo on the internet where Noland plays chess - https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1ypJdkXjaLNGW