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dojomouse commented on Geothermal Energy Could Outperform Nuclear Power   oilprice.com/Energy/Energ... · Posted by u/PaulHoule
penteract · a year ago
Doesn't most geothermal heat come from radioactive decay and gravitational potential energy of the planet as it formed, rather than reactions involving multiple particles? I'd have agreed if you'd said "radioactive substances" rather than "fission reactions".
dojomouse · a year ago
Natural radioactive decay is also an example of fission - just not a fission chain reaction (… except when it is! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklo )
dojomouse commented on Andrej Karpathy on X: "100% Software 2.0 computer.Just a single neural net   twitter.com/karpathy/stat... · Posted by u/bilsbie
thesuperbigfrog · a year ago
"100% Fully Software 2.0 computer. Just a single neural net and no classical software at all. Device inputs (audio video, touch etc) directly feed into a neural net, the outputs of it directly display as audio/video on speaker/screen, that’s it."

Sounds like a magical fantasy computer.

How would the input and output devices work without drivers? Does "no classical software at all" mean that the drivers are somehow within the neural net?

How would such a magical neural net computer be trained? Wouldn't it require observing countless inputs and outputs for a normal computer? How would the neural net being trained distinguish between good, wanted input/output combinations versus bad, error input/output combinations?

How would you program such a computer or load new software onto it? If the whole thing is a single neural net, wouldn't the neural net need to be replaced in order to add new functionality or correct errors/bugs? How would user data be persisted while upgrading the applications?

dojomouse · a year ago
I think it’s very much a magical fantasy computer :-) A thought experiment, rather than a claim to something that’s been built or exists.

The questions you pose are interesting ones, for the sake of the experiment I think at least:

- Programming

- Loading new software

- Adding new functionality

- Persisting user data

Could all at least in principle be achieved without changing the network architecture, but rather just providing the relevant data at the inputs (eg the full bit stream of the install file of the new software being installed) and having that lead to adjustments in activations (not weights or architecture) across the network which lead to any future inputs to the network resulting in the outputs that would be expected in the presence of the new software. Same deal for the other examples.

As to whether this is practical or achievable at present - not even remotely close in my view. But it’s still an interesting idea, even if just to think about why it wouldnt work and what that implies for future development direction of multimodal networks etc.

dojomouse commented on Most life on Earth is dormant, after pulling an 'emergency brake'   quantamagazine.org/most-l... · Posted by u/mgl
grugagag · a year ago
Yeah but you missed the point op was making
dojomouse · a year ago
Perhaps. I was thinking along the lines of MarkBurns response - ML will allow us to efficiently look in those places we might otherwise only have searched by accident.

If ops point was rather that “accident”/“luck” are uniquely human… I don’t agree. Luck is when probability works out in your favour - and that can happen all the time with any sort of probabilistic search, which is rife in ML.

dojomouse commented on Most life on Earth is dormant, after pulling an 'emergency brake'   quantamagazine.org/most-l... · Posted by u/mgl
kylehotchkiss · a year ago
> Karla Helena-Bueno discovered a common hibernation factor when she accidentally left an Arctic bacterium on ice for too long.

I love how this story follows the magic pattern of so much of innovation and discovery - an accident. It's refreshingly human and not a mode of discovery that machine learning is going to completely take away from us.

dojomouse · a year ago
I think ML is likely to be material to us making many more such discoveries. So much of the current constraint is not in the knowledge to identify the interesting pattern, but the capacity to look for it at scale.
dojomouse commented on Global carbon markets overcredit cookstove greenhouse gas reductions by 10   phys.org/news/2024-01-glo... · Posted by u/wglb
senectus1 · 2 years ago
not saying i disagree with the sentiment. but, how do you count the carbon emissions.

That's a huge unsolved issue with the Carbon Tax AND Carbon Credits solutions. Your idea doesn't solve it.

dojomouse · 2 years ago
In New Zealand we have a pretty effective system that covers all fossil fuel use nationally, as well as several other greenhouse gas emission classes (notably not agricultural emissions though hopefully they’re included soon). The EU has something similar as do several other jurisdictions. It’s a solved problem at scale.

In NZ we also have an effective system for recognising and incentivising certain classes of forest carbon removals (which I think are a legitimate and important class of credits - unlike avoided emission credits which I agree are junk).

dojomouse commented on Solar and wind to top coal power in US for first time in 2024   bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/goplayoutside
kmax12 · 2 years ago
The US electrical grid is changing fast. I built a site to track instantaneous solar generation and other records in real time across different parts of the country.

New solar records are done until next summer but still interesting stuff happening. For example, California hit a new battery charging record a few weeks ago.

All the records and more real time information about US grid are here: https://www.gridstatus.io/records

dojomouse · 2 years ago
This is extremely cool! Nice work. What data does it rely on and do you have any plans to support other countries?
dojomouse commented on Rain Panels: Harvesting the energy of falling raindrops   thedebrief.org/forget-sol... · Posted by u/MadcapJake
itake · 2 years ago
If the raindrops were caught with a funnel, so the actual surface area of the device is very small, but the funnel is large, would that improve the economics? Maybe add in a water tank + hydro power to capture more gravitational potential energy from the water,
dojomouse · 2 years ago
It wouldn’t help with kinetic energy harvesting from the raindrops as that would go into the funnel as heat.

It might provide a way to harvest the remaining gravitational potential energy of the rain (possible funnel being your roof and guttering) but the only upside is that you could concentrate the energy with something that’s already there (and hence harvest over a smaller area). The amount of energy (and hence value) available would be even lower - unless you had a really high roof.

This is also the reason I abandoned my high school scheme of hydro turbines at the bottom of downpipes.

As the comments below say - you need to be working at the scale of a few major geographic features as a funnel before it starts to get really interesting.

dojomouse commented on Rain Panels: Harvesting the energy of falling raindrops   thedebrief.org/forget-sol... · Posted by u/MadcapJake
angry_moose · 2 years ago
So 25mm/hour (1") is a fairly heavy sustained rain. Terminal velocity of rain drops is on the order of 10 m/s. Volume of a rain drop is on the order of .5ml.

Total rainfall volume per m^2 is .025 m^3/hour. This is approximately 500,000 randrops/hour or about 14 drops/second. Each drop has 1/2 * m * V^2 = 25 mJ of energy.

So putting it all together, this is generating 25 mJ/drop * 14 drops/second = .35 W/m^2, and that's only when its raining. (Edit: and this is assuming 100% conversion efficiency, which....no. Don't know anything about this technology, but probably cut that number in half again).

Sounds a lot like Solar Freakin Roadways.

Edit: Just a sidenote; back in college the best course I took was billed as a "Renewable Energy" but was really just a weekly set of unit conversion problems like this that proved how absolutely stupid most energy proposals are.

We did focus a fair amount on real technologies like Wind and Solar (and analyzing the shortcomings like storage, which haven gotten better since ~2009). The professor took a lot of joy in shooting down ideas like this though.

dojomouse · 2 years ago
Love you for this! I had exactly the same “solar freaking roadways” thought, although at least that idea qualified by basic theoretical analysis of available energy and area for harvesting and conversion efficiency. It was an obviously terrible idea for other reasons :-) yet it still got a prototype…

I wasn’t sure about the droplet analysis so took your same numbers (25mm/h, 10m/s) and just worked out aggregate mass: 25mm over 1m^2 = 0.025m^3 = 25kg

0.5mv^2 => 1250J/h… so looks like we agree.

And to add a simple economic analysis of why this is such a dead-end idea:

Mawsynram, in India, is apparently the rainiest city in the world with roughly 10,000mm of annual rainfall - 10x the global average.

A given rain energy harvesting panel, deployed there, would generate 500,000J/yr… or 0.138kWh. That’s significantly less than what a typical rooftop 1m2 solar panel would generate in an hour on a sunny day. 0.138kwh is worth around 1.3cents at 10c/kWh.

A big roof might get you $1-$2/year. You couldn’t pay to clean your roof for that. You couldn’t even pay someone to answer an email enquiry about the install costs for your system for that. This solution would have to be VASTLY cheaper than paint to stand a chance of being viable.

There is a reason our existing systems to collect power from rainfall rely on vast existing landscapes and aggregation mechanisms (rivers) to concentrate the rainfall for us.

It is - in my view - a dead idea.

dojomouse commented on Rain Panels: Harvesting the energy of falling raindrops   thedebrief.org/forget-sol... · Posted by u/MadcapJake
lackinnermind · 2 years ago
First engineering is an iterative process.

Which means something that's engineered is made better by successive improvements from previous work.

2nd this is failing to consider different environment conditions and applications may make gathering energy from the environment in creative ways practical and useful.

Not saying this particular technology will eventually be practical from a commercial standpoint, only wishing to state it's more than just 'will this technology easily solve global energy demands'.

dojomouse · 2 years ago
Correct, but what the parent here presents is a theoretical upper bound. A working product wouldn’t even get close. When the theoretical upper bound shows that something could never aspire to more than a vastly inferior alternative to existing proven technologies, the correct approach is to abandon it rather than invest in iterative improvements.

I agree we should keep an open mind regarding creative ways of collecting energy from the environment. But we should also abandon those which are quickly demonstrated to have no meaningful potential even if we were to perfect them.

dojomouse commented on AI will save the world?   pmarca.substack.com/p/why... · Posted by u/kjhughes
braindead_in · 2 years ago
I mostly agree with the piece, except this part.

> And AI is a machine – is not going to come alive any more than your toaster will.

There have been claims that AIs are conscious. For example, Ilya Sutskever has suggested that LLMs may be slightly conscious.

It is possible that machine consciousness could be quite different from human consciousness. This idea aligns with the philosophy of Nonduality, which proposes that pure consciousness is the fundamental substratum of the universe. Our minds are able to reflect this pure consciousness, albeit in a limited way. If our human minds can reflect consciousness, perhaps artificial neural networks can as well, but in their own manner.

dojomouse · 2 years ago
It also ignores the fact that there’s no need for it to become “alive” or “conscious” to be a threat in the way he describes. It just needs to be an agent with an mis-specified, poorly specified, or maliciously specified goal. And there are already numerous examples of those. The only debate is around capability, and here he makes multiple references to “infinitely” capable. So the whole argument seems like wildly disingenuous strawman, consistent with his attempt to classify all those raising concerns as naive (or corrupt) cultists - not exactly the vibe from the likes of Geoff Hinton / Stuart Russell / Max Tegmark; all of whom generally act with far more integrity (it seems) than Marc Andreessen shows here.

Ironically I think the whole article is motivated by the thing he claims to condemn - namely: he’s a bootlegger, who has an interest in freedom of ai development.

Part 2 is much more interesting. Part 1 was very very weak.

u/dojomouse

KarmaCake day256December 5, 2011View Original