I wonder if there's a Paleo-proxy or some kind of natural record that could be used to trace the frequency and magnitude of these events throughout Earth's geological past and if anyone is looking into it? For example we can look at the ocean sediments (usually by measuring changes in isotopic ratio of different compounds) and infer a great deal on temperature, carbon cycling, polar reversal, ocean circulation, chemistry etc. going back millions of years. It would be really neat and helpful if we discovered a proxy that we could use to trace solar flares hitting earth.
This reminds me of the warnings about a coronavirus pandemic from over 10 years ago.
We know from geological records that these are periodic events that happened every so often. We are due for one, and it is in our best interest to take the periodicity of nature seriously.
The current weakening of Earth's Geomagnetic field (Geomagnetic Excursion) would leave Earth relatively unprotected from a CME as well. Weakened Geomagnetic Fields seem to be correlated to mass extinction/evolution events.
The strength of Earth's magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) to Earth's surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40,000 years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13,000 years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200,000 years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength, which implies a long‐term role for UVR in human evolution. New fossil finds, improved fossil dating, knowledge of the past strength of Earth's magnetic field, and refinements in the human evolutionary tree, are sharpening the focus on a possible link between UVR arriving at the Earth's surface, magnetic field strength, and events in mammalian evolution.
I am not an astrophysicist, but I don't see any reason to doubt the study's conclusions. But isn't the more pressing question the probability of such a CME hitting the Earth? The sun is not small, and CMEs could be ejected away from it in any direction, I would think relatively few of them hit any of the planets?
Kurzgesagt has a nice and objective summary on the topic. If I remember correctly, 50% chance of a big one hitting us over the next 50 years (or by 2050, can't remember exactly):
https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo
>Auroras were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[8] People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[15] The aurora was visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico,[16][17] Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii,[18] southern Japan and China,[19] and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia.
The timing of the Carrington Event was strangely fortuitous - only when a few telegraph lines had been installed. So the cost of the adverse event was relatively minor. Good thing the aliens controlling our simulation tested us early.
Early enough that only a few telegraph lines were affected, but late enough that there were some and we noticed that it was more than some unusually bright auroras.
It can be avoided if we will start to protect our electronics and networks right now. At least most critical ones. The protection technology is available already, just need to be integrated everywhere.
I'd rather have fibre on the ground for a lot of reasons, but if enough people moved to LEO orbit sats, and then huge numbers of them get affected by reduced magnetosphere protection, the compounding problems here are huge.
It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.
This is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.
Isn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.
I have wondered about this. From my understanding the reason main power lines etc are affected is that the long cables turn into an antenna of sorts which allows induction to occur from the CMe. So things like small electronics etc shouldn't be affected.
However, that's where I wonder about the "shouldn't" part. Wouldn't a large CME like this cause excessive power surges, which modern electronics don't respond well to? i.e. nearby lightning strikes can kill a computer or microwave even if you've got a circuit breaker, so wouldn't the grid suddenly having a massive surge go through it still be a cause for concern? Or are we talking voltage/amp levels below that of a lightning strike?
How about the effect on all the satellites? I think th Carrington event size one would be catastrophic in the modern day. Imagine large urban areas going losing power for days or weeks. No electricity and no running water. Pretty scary stuff.
Toilet paper hoarding in these scenarios is always funny. Look, you're not going to be flushing precious water down the toilet (if sewage even works), you will be shitting in a hole somewhere outside. In which case any paper, rags or big leaves will do just fine :D
Didn't Apple make it completely obvious that people will do everything for only a tiny bit more convenience? Anyone owning toilet paper in an apocalyptic world will be king!
I think major cities would fall apart but I can speak from experience that the where I grew up in the deep south would fare just fine. Still lots of old world knowledge left to keep local farms and towns running. Of course it would be the stone age but a lot of people live for it there.
That seems like the commonly held belief, but is it really the case?
1st world countries are well stocked, have know-how, have a lot of people (and a lot of educated people).
I'm inclined to believe they'd recover faster and with better results (i.e. no anarchy, no descent into dictatorship, good QoL) than third world countries. Worst case, they'll be invading poorer countries, sadly.
I’d expect pretty much exactly the opposite. The first world is rich, developed and full of knowledgeable people and more competent governments. There’s so much more capital to cannibalize to get something working. Anywhere dependent on international trade or aid to feed its people would be fucked by even a two month hiatus in international trade. Starvation and war within two weeks and peacekeepers are busy at home dealing with their own countries’ disasters. Most of Africa is not self-sufficient in food.
You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?
Readit News
Evidence of a Monstrous, Ancient Solar Storm Found Hidden in Greenland's Ice https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179...
BC 660 beryllium-10 / chlorine-36 spike https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179...
AD 774–775 carbon-14 spike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_carbon-14_spik...
AD 993-994 carbon-14 spike https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2783
See Also: Atmospheric Production of Carbon-14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14#Natural_production_i...
We know from geological records that these are periodic events that happened every so often. We are due for one, and it is in our best interest to take the periodicity of nature seriously.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X1...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13429...
The strength of Earth's magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) to Earth's surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40,000 years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13,000 years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200,000 years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength, which implies a long‐term role for UVR in human evolution. New fossil finds, improved fossil dating, knowledge of the past strength of Earth's magnetic field, and refinements in the human evolutionary tree, are sharpening the focus on a possible link between UVR arriving at the Earth's surface, magnetic field strength, and events in mammalian evolution.
>Auroras were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[8] People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[15] The aurora was visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico,[16][17] Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii,[18] southern Japan and China,[19] and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia.
Instead it's much closer to a Gaussian distribution centered on the ecliptic.
I'd rather have fibre on the ground for a lot of reasons, but if enough people moved to LEO orbit sats, and then huge numbers of them get affected by reduced magnetosphere protection, the compounding problems here are huge.
However, that's where I wonder about the "shouldn't" part. Wouldn't a large CME like this cause excessive power surges, which modern electronics don't respond well to? i.e. nearby lightning strikes can kill a computer or microwave even if you've got a circuit breaker, so wouldn't the grid suddenly having a massive surge go through it still be a cause for concern? Or are we talking voltage/amp levels below that of a lightning strike?
1st world countries are well stocked, have know-how, have a lot of people (and a lot of educated people).
I'm inclined to believe they'd recover faster and with better results (i.e. no anarchy, no descent into dictatorship, good QoL) than third world countries. Worst case, they'll be invading poorer countries, sadly.
There’d be advantages for the one with the most remaining capability.
Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.