Grocery stores and pharmacies will remain open, and restaurants may stay open to provide takeout food only. Also staying open: veterinary services, gas stations and auto repair shops, hardware and other home supply stores, banks and laundry services.
Daycare centers may stay open, but children must be kept in groups no larger than 12, and they must stay with the same group of children every day.
This is pretty much a copy-paste what we did here in Czech Republic ~2 days ago, with less stringent stuff gradually comming before that.
As such rules are IMHO quite sensible and effective, it is a good thing others are applying them as well. I guess that could be another reason to act quick on stuff like this - so that others can see this is possible and apply it themselves.
They also explicitly talked about going out to walk the dog, go for a hike, etc, as long as you keep your distance. (presumably, not from the person you live with and will get infected by anyway)
I'm not particularly interested in getting in a bike crash and taxing the ER even further, but i'll be avoiding cabin fever for sure.
> Under the order, residents will still be allowed to take a walk, exercise or take a pet out to use the bathroom as long as people remain at least six-feet away from others who are not a member of their own household.
In Italy, they've actually banned bike riding as a training activity since you're not supposed to go far from home, and out of an abundance of caution: if you hurt yourself you might be tying up desperately needed medical services, and also going near the hospitals full of COVID-19 patients.
Seems like it'd be a good idea to limit really big, difficult workouts in order to not tire yourself out too much, and probably stay close to home as well.
Daycare will be closed--we know why.
Curfew will be imposed.
People need to prepare for 2 months of lock-down (two weeks didn't work anywhere)
Virtually everything will stop, no one will risk their life (food, pharma and essentials obviously will go on)
Where is this second order against walking, hiking, and running in the Bay Area? Where do I find this curfew and what it is? Same for this "2 months prep".
I'd be curious to hear what the rationale for taking this exact measure is, versus something more or less severe. Yes, it's to stop the spread of the virus, but what information is going into this decision? Is this simply an effort to copy the effective strategies employed by China and Korea to slow down the virus, or based off a simulation/modelling effort?
Or even a basic cost/benefit analysis. "We expect this will save X lives, at a cost of $Y to the economy." Shouldn't someone be doing that analysis? There are lots of things that would save lives if we did them (e.g. ban cars), but we don't because the cost is too high.
That metric is hard to calculate because the transmission rate is still not very well understood for Covid-19, i.e. In order to calculate the cost of staying open, you need to accurately estimate the number of infected, number of deaths, and impact on current healthcare capacity.
What is known is that it is incredibly contagious, so they're taking precautions for a worse-case scenario with these shut downs.
I agree that this analysis should be the basis of the decision, and I'm sure it's not simple tradeoff between lives and economic cost. For instance, no preparation, no response, and huge body count 4 weeks later when a huge fraction of the workforce is sick will damage the economy as well.
This is a misstatement. Nobody is trying to stop the spread, they're trying to slow it within a bubble. The surrounding counties, cities, and states aren't under quarantine. The bay area is simply hitting the pause button, with a slight rewind, for three weeks. Once those three weeks pass, the pause button is released.
One thing is for sure, unless there's some compensation or forgiveness of late payments/credit score hits from the state, this is going to really harm the lives of those already struggling to afford the bay area.
> Once those three weeks pass, the pause button is released.
I haven't been assuming that. I think this step is needed, but nobody has really defined precisely what success looks like. In 3 weeks I assume they re-assess and could very well leave restrictions in place.
It can be used to effectively stop it. Flattening the curve doesn't work if we need to put people in quarantine for a year, no one will accept that. But if we wait long enough until there's at least some treatment, we can loosen restrictions then. I guess that's the plan of most governments now. Because without a treatment, the current strategy will backfire when rules have to be relaxed again in a month or two.
Basic biology class. Viruses spread between using, stay away from each other to minimize spreading. You don’t need modeling, you just need common sense.
If we shelter in place and the disease is not eradicated, won't it just come back?
It seems like we need to either eradicate it 100% or develop herd immunity by exposing as many people as possible.
There is clearly value in limiting the rate of infection, but that means the shelter in place is just a rate limit, and we are in for something much longer than just a few weeks.
Everyone just needs to shelter in place long enough for testing capacity to improve. Early detection is key, but without that, we have to slow the spread.
Friends partners family in China were under lockdown for two months as the Chinese got a handle on getting testing up and running. I think the big reason for lock down is to break the transmission chains from a large diffuse network into a bunch of small poorly connected islands. If you do that the disease starts to burn itself out. Uninfected islands stay that way. Infected ones quickly develop heard immunity.
Testing alone won't help us unless we can really test everyone. Germany already has broad testing and some areas are discussing to close down testing facilities as there's no benefit from testing at the moment. Positively tested people are as much quarantined as everyone and the personnel used for testing would better treat other patients.
Testing only really makes sense if we either can test everyone to ensure we can eradicate the virus by isolation, or if we have medication to define who should receive treatment.
How does testing help anything? Other than just providing good reporting. It doesn't address the issue, nor solve the actual underlying problem.
I mean, if I'm feeling sick wouldn't I just proceed as if I had it? How doesn't actually knowing change anything? My course of action should be identical.
People will still get sick with shelter-in-place, since they need to go to grocery stores and such. This means part of the population has immunity next time.
We also may have better treatment options in the not-so-distant future, making everybody better prepared for a future spread.
In fact it seems you could flatten the curve too much? Suppose this shelter in place is very successful we hold cases steady for the next 3 weeks. Then what? If we pull the band-aid off we're basically back where we started. The idea with flattening the curve is to have a controlled, lower flow of infections that slowly translates to herd immunity right?
Does anyone know if this is legally binding, or just a recommendation? I'm moving from one of the affected counties to another of them very soon. I've already paid a deposit on movers and signed a lease, and I need to move out of my old apartment or I'll be paying rent in two high-rent areas at the same time. I can't afford to pay over $7000/mo while I wait to see when this will be lifted. If my movers refuse to disobey the health order then I don't know what I'm going to do. I just don't have the money...
Suspension of rent and mortgage payments is very possible. Current landlord won’t have any replacement renter or ability to evict you. Unlike 9/11 or 2008, this could be viewed as one giant economic freeze for everyone.
I'm in the same boat (as is the person who is moving out of the place I'm going to move into).
I was planning to do the move myself, with a rental truck. I'm not confident that rental trucks will be available. I'm not sure I'd want to be in one anyway -- even before the pandemic the sanitary condition of rental trucks was dubious at best.
I'm hoping that moving will be considered essential travel, although tonight is just before the start of the new policy. If a lot of people ignore the "shelter in place" during the next week, the enforcement will probably get stricter.
I don't have an answer for you but it's a real problem. Paying double rent (or rent plus a mortgage) involves a huge amount of money in the Bay Area.
I'm probably going to try to contact the county government tomorrow and get an answer but I'm sure I'll be the millionth person on hold on the phone.
(Also, guess who needs a smog check to register his car and might not be able to get one?)
I'm not worried about me personally getting pulled over, I'm worried about moving companies not operating. I need a moving truck in order to vacate my old apartment or I'm stuck still paying rent.
A wide swath of businesses that do not provide “essential” services must send workers home. Among those remaining open are grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants for delivery only and hardware stores. Most workers are ordered to stay home, with exceptions including health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers and sanitation workers. BART will remain running for essential travel, and airports are not closing.
I don't get why they don't close airports for all but cargo traffic. That way they could close off all terminals, probably saving ~90% of personnel. With cargo only, just warehouses and a minimum of security and air traffic control would have to be on site. Keeping terminals staffed when people aren't supposed to travel anyway doesn't seem logical.
Readit News
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co...
Grocery stores and pharmacies will remain open, and restaurants may stay open to provide takeout food only. Also staying open: veterinary services, gas stations and auto repair shops, hardware and other home supply stores, banks and laundry services.
Daycare centers may stay open, but children must be kept in groups no larger than 12, and they must stay with the same group of children every day.
As such rules are IMHO quite sensible and effective, it is a good thing others are applying them as well. I guess that could be another reason to act quick on stuff like this - so that others can see this is possible and apply it themselves.
I'm not particularly interested in getting in a bike crash and taxing the ER even further, but i'll be avoiding cabin fever for sure.
I wonder how this crisis and lockdown will affect dating and future birth rates.
> Under the order, residents will still be allowed to take a walk, exercise or take a pet out to use the bathroom as long as people remain at least six-feet away from others who are not a member of their own household.
Seems like it'd be a good idea to limit really big, difficult workouts in order to not tire yourself out too much, and probably stay close to home as well.
Daycare will be closed--we know why. Curfew will be imposed. People need to prepare for 2 months of lock-down (two weeks didn't work anywhere) Virtually everything will stop, no one will risk their life (food, pharma and essentials obviously will go on)
Deleted Comment
What is known is that it is incredibly contagious, so they're taking precautions for a worse-case scenario with these shut downs.
This is a misstatement. Nobody is trying to stop the spread, they're trying to slow it within a bubble. The surrounding counties, cities, and states aren't under quarantine. The bay area is simply hitting the pause button, with a slight rewind, for three weeks. Once those three weeks pass, the pause button is released.
One thing is for sure, unless there's some compensation or forgiveness of late payments/credit score hits from the state, this is going to really harm the lives of those already struggling to afford the bay area.
I haven't been assuming that. I think this step is needed, but nobody has really defined precisely what success looks like. In 3 weeks I assume they re-assess and could very well leave restrictions in place.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22596594
It seems like we need to either eradicate it 100% or develop herd immunity by exposing as many people as possible.
There is clearly value in limiting the rate of infection, but that means the shelter in place is just a rate limit, and we are in for something much longer than just a few weeks.
Testing only really makes sense if we either can test everyone to ensure we can eradicate the virus by isolation, or if we have medication to define who should receive treatment.
I mean, if I'm feeling sick wouldn't I just proceed as if I had it? How doesn't actually knowing change anything? My course of action should be identical.
We also may have better treatment options in the not-so-distant future, making everybody better prepared for a future spread.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Currently we're Knight Capital and our algos are blowing money. We could worry about the delay or we could turn everything off.
I was planning to do the move myself, with a rental truck. I'm not confident that rental trucks will be available. I'm not sure I'd want to be in one anyway -- even before the pandemic the sanitary condition of rental trucks was dubious at best.
I'm hoping that moving will be considered essential travel, although tonight is just before the start of the new policy. If a lot of people ignore the "shelter in place" during the next week, the enforcement will probably get stricter.
I don't have an answer for you but it's a real problem. Paying double rent (or rent plus a mortgage) involves a huge amount of money in the Bay Area.
I'm probably going to try to contact the county government tomorrow and get an answer but I'm sure I'll be the millionth person on hold on the phone.
(Also, guess who needs a smog check to register his car and might not be able to get one?)
You should be okay on the smog check, because auto repair shops are considered essential in the order.
Deleted Comment
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-...
A wide swath of businesses that do not provide “essential” services must send workers home. Among those remaining open are grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants for delivery only and hardware stores. Most workers are ordered to stay home, with exceptions including health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers and sanitation workers. BART will remain running for essential travel, and airports are not closing.
2) Read the story of South Korea's Patient 31.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...
3) It's not the flu. It's more contagious and if you get pneumonia you will have permanent lung damage. It can also invade your nervous system.
4) Pneumonia will not kill you, but it requires hospitalization. The US has less than 3 hospital beds per every 1,000 people.
5) Reported cases are a small subset of the actual number of cases. There are not enough test kits.
Citation, please. Here's a counter: This list shows about 29 ICU beds (so not even just beds more broadly) per 100,000 in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...