Maybe if they can pinpoint its whereabouts at a specific time when it's not heavily guarded, they can send a team to snatch it with minimal casualties.
Trump talks a lot of shit but generally he chickens out from that kinda thing historically speaking.
Granted considering his statements as things has gone on I'm not at all sure about his grasp on reality. Maybe he sees the wrong tweets and does something stupid(er) than usual?
Another quote from the movie: "...Listen, I'm a politician, which means I'm a cheat and a liar, and when I'm not kissing babies, I'm stealing their lollipops. But it also means I keep my options open..."
Good move. Venezuela shipping oil to Cuba violates NO international law and America is committing an act of terrorism with their "blockade" (an act of war according to the UN). America can never win a war with Venezuela, seeing their humiliating defeats in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam against much smaller and less developed nations. Godspeed to all Venezuelans resisting the ongoing American aggression.
For the time being, the US did not declare any blockade. It is simply seizing vessels that are part of the "shadow fleet". The particular oil tanker that was seized recently was flying under a Guyanese flag. Guyana, by the way, is Venezuela's neighbor, and about a year ago Maduro was thinking of invading it. Guess what, Guyana said they have no idea why that tanker is flying their flag, so technically speaking the ship was flying a false flag, therefore under the UN Convention of the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) the vessel could be boarded, inspected and seized.
Hard to comprehend the stunning levels of cope required to still view what happened in Iraq as some kind of decisive victory for anyone except Blackwater and Halliburton.
> America can never win a war with Venezuela, seeing their humiliating defeats in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam against much smaller and less developed nations.
I don't disagree, but it cost at least 400,000 civilian lives in Vietnam war. It's hard for me to say "good move."
One there could be a bit easier than Afghanistan etc. in that they have an alternative leader to bring in who seems to have won the last election. I don't think Maduro is very popular so much of the army could turn.
If your assumed goal is regime change from autocratic to democratic, they lost. If it was for stability in the middle east, the lost. If it was for oil and pressure on OPEC, I'd say they lost, but I would hear and understand an opposite argument (and change my mind).
I have to say I appreciate Maduro calling the U.S. empire's bluff at every turn. Whether it's the corrupt Nobel Peace Prize, trying to bribe his pilot to betray him, or now this, it's all just making it clear to anyone with eyes remotely open to see that U.S. foreign policy operates on shameless pretense and dishonesty.
I mean technically US doesn't have to go to war in land, if they sink the navy(which would be accomplished in minutes) then all Venezuelan oil is trapped in country and they go bankrupt.
Could the buyers just send their own ships to retrieve oil from Venezuela? Say, China sends a oil tanker, I imagine it would be trickier for US Navy to just sink or steal it.
Playing devil's advocate here, wouldn't Venezuela be massively better off from its "complete collapse of civilization" state and matching ruling class if it simply called up the US and said "hey, want to govern us?"
That the US cannot win a war is silly. The US could erase every population center within a few minutes. The core issue with US military policy is nobody can agree on what the goals are or what the appropriate level of force should be, and this is further confounded by an extremely large industry that benefits from no compete contracts and production practices that are optimized for low intensity conflict that lasts for decades. It’s sort of an elaborate jobs program, a lot like the TSA.
> That the US cannot win a war is silly. The US could erase every population center within a few minutes.
Although the U.S. ruling class often likes to pretend it can operate with no regard for its domestic perceptions of legitimacy, the stunning amounts they expend on relentless psychological operations suggest otherwise. Killing millions in an aggressive nuclear strike would do nothing but reveal to many people (who are desperately trying to pretend otherwise) that they are controlled by a klatch of relentless psychopaths.
Regardless of any legal or moral issues, in practice the Venezuelan Navy has almost no capability to escort merchant vessels. It was never a very strong force and has been badly degraded by years of socialism. I doubt they will try to do anything more than a symbolic show of force near the ports.
The main purpose is probably to get American ships to fire the first shot, and thereby firmly establish that it is the U.S. empire that is the aggressor.
This is barely an inconvenience for the Venezuelan regime. Oil contributes very little to the economy these days. The oil industry was dismantled many years ago and replaced mostly by drug trafficking and illegal mining. With over 9 million expats fleeing the regime, “remesas” also keep whatever is left from the economy moving. Most Venezuelans don’t work, or at least not for money, just to keep their sanity, as salaries cannot buy any basic goods. Exceptions are doctors and some emergency trade occupations like plumbers or mechanics, which are entirely $US based. Most families depend on relatives sending money from abroad. There’s also some tourism, mostly Russians and Chinese. Other than not much going on there, the 0.0001% in power already made their fortunes in illegal markets (and in crypto, as some in the regime used the limited power in the country to mine bitcoin) so they have little to worry about some dirty oil not being “sold” to Cuba or Iran. The rest of the population continues surviving however they can.
Oil contributes very little to the economy these days. The oil industry was dismantled many years ago and replaced mostly by drug trafficking and illegal mining.
Mind sourcing that? It's not what's on the Wikipedia page for Venezuela's economy, nor the CIA world factbook for the country. The largest estimate I could find for drug trafficking was 8 billion USD, which came from transparency international, an org with sketchy history on Latin American numbers. The latest petroleum export numbers I can find are much higher.
Don’t need to source it. I lived under the regime and still have many relatives there. I know exactly what I am saying by my own experience not by reading a journalist from the NYT. The drug business is very real and has deep roots in the military since the early 2000s so this is not new. Even the presidential plane has been used to transport drugs, that’s well documented. Chavez himself didn’t like it once his son got involved, but he died and Venezuela became the Wild West. There are two factions controlling the country, the ideological one and the “business” one. Both are involved in drug trafficking but the ideological branch supports Cuba and other communist regimes with free oil. Cuba hasn’t paid one dime for oil in more than 25 years. In fact many of the ships leaving Venezuela are bound to Cuba’s “customers” directly. The non ideological branch of the regime hates this “deal”, and many senior military are actually anti-Cuba, they have never been there, reason why the Cuban regime keeps Maduro in power. All of Maduro’s security ring is Cuban for that reason. The non ideological branch made a deal to stay out of oil in exchange for illegal mining. There’s a human and environmental catastrophe happening in the Amazonas state, with natives being displaced or killed and one of the most beautiful naturals reserves in the planet being destroyed. This is also well documented. Most of the gold is sold to Russia and Iran. There’s also some mining for uranium which Iran needs for their nuclear program. And that’s it, there’s really no other economy in the country. Don’t be naive believing Maduro is selling oil and keeping the country funded. As I said the economy is largely supported by “remesas” from the exodus and by the informal economy which is completely dollar based, no one takes local currency there.
It’s a complex issue which deserves a complex explanation. I wouldn’t oversimplify and discount that at least some people with decision making clout in the US want Maduro to be made an example of. Nearly all leaders in the Americas (including in the US) are generally hostile to the US population, but Maduro is probably the most open and aggressive. Sending the worst prisoners to us is laudable as a resourceful and creative form of biological warfare, but I would still want to see him on the business end of US ordinance. Incidentally reducing the supply of narcotics, even if it’s a small percentage, is a win for working class folks on net, and at least some people care about them. Chinese and Russian interests getting cute and forward positioning offensive or dual-use material is likely in play. A smoke screen for the only country the US policy-making establishment actually cares about is also an interest served. A little jingoism probably polls well. Unfortunately, we don’t have a monarchy and policy is basically unexplainable. Sort of like how it is when companies get too big and anybody who can buy shares gets a say.
The dumbest timeline is the one with nuclear war. This might not be it.
If we're optimistic and assume that Trump, Xi and Putin have some kind of deal for a new world order where the US is no longer a world police, and the US gets to have its oligarchs just like Russia has.
Maybe that part of the deal is that Trump gets the Americas. It sure sucks for the new vassal states, but it beats having a nuclear war.
Putin seems intent on keeping up his threats, he might just use a "low yield" nuke to shake out the weak hands in Europe - - which it appears there are plenty of - - the question is how EU NATO would respond. I doubt they would then match him, nuke for nuke.
Could it be Trump is leaning towards just letting Putin and the EU settle their own differences by themselves - - while Trump concentrates on his side of the world, which Venezuela is a too easy prize to win. The old playbook: Find a US leaning Venezuelan leader who can be bought off with CIA money, get rid of Maduro, by force if needed, then the huge discoveries in the oilfields of Guyana next door that Exxon, Hess Corporation, CNOOC and others have their hands deep in are secured.
Readit News
2031: After 4 year struggle Maracay has finally fallen, An F35 has been shot down by unknown energy weapon, probably provided by China.
I though he and his followers said he was anti-war? Oh yup, this is probably just a "special military operation"
Maybe if they can pinpoint its whereabouts at a specific time when it's not heavily guarded, they can send a team to snatch it with minimal casualties.
Granted considering his statements as things has gone on I'm not at all sure about his grasp on reality. Maybe he sees the wrong tweets and does something stupid(er) than usual?
https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/34245
Dead Comment
Iraq’s Republican Guards rejoice!
No, but they'll win all the battles.
I don't disagree, but it cost at least 400,000 civilian lives in Vietnam war. It's hard for me to say "good move."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties
One there could be a bit easier than Afghanistan etc. in that they have an alternative leader to bring in who seems to have won the last election. I don't think Maduro is very popular so much of the army could turn.
Like seriously not even Trump can be stupid enough to actually want to GOVERN it. Can he?
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Although the U.S. ruling class often likes to pretend it can operate with no regard for its domestic perceptions of legitimacy, the stunning amounts they expend on relentless psychological operations suggest otherwise. Killing millions in an aggressive nuclear strike would do nothing but reveal to many people (who are desperately trying to pretend otherwise) that they are controlled by a klatch of relentless psychopaths.
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1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wag_the_Dog
It would serve to darken Trump's image a bit while affirming he's a Strong Man (a quote from the article).
If we're optimistic and assume that Trump, Xi and Putin have some kind of deal for a new world order where the US is no longer a world police, and the US gets to have its oligarchs just like Russia has.
Maybe that part of the deal is that Trump gets the Americas. It sure sucks for the new vassal states, but it beats having a nuclear war.
Could it be Trump is leaning towards just letting Putin and the EU settle their own differences by themselves - - while Trump concentrates on his side of the world, which Venezuela is a too easy prize to win. The old playbook: Find a US leaning Venezuelan leader who can be bought off with CIA money, get rid of Maduro, by force if needed, then the huge discoveries in the oilfields of Guyana next door that Exxon, Hess Corporation, CNOOC and others have their hands deep in are secured.