It's interesting that Amazon don't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic, which would have seemed like somewhat of a natural fit given that they are already partnered, Anthropic have apparently optimized (or at least adapted) for Trainium, and Amazon don't have their own frontier model.
It seems that Amazon are playing this much like Microsoft - seeing themselves are more of a cloud provider, happy to serve anyone's models, and perhaps only putting a moderate effort into building their own models (which they'll be happy to serve to those who want that capability/price point).
I don't see the pure "AI" plays like OpenAI and Anthropic able to survive as independent companies when they are competing against the likes of Google, and with Microsoft and Amazon happy to serve whatever future model comes along.
LOL of course they don't want to own Anthropic, else they themselves would be responsible for coming up with the $10s of billions in Monopoly money that Anthropic has committed to pay AMZN for compute in the next few years. Better to take an impressive looking stake and leave some other idiot holding the buck.
Amazon also uses Claude under the hood for their "Rufus" shopping search assistant which is all over amazon.com.
It's kind of funny, you can ask Rufus for stuff like "write a hello world in python for me" and then it will do it and also recommend some python books.
> It's kind of funny, you can ask Rufus for stuff like "write a hello world in python for me" and then it will do it and also recommend some python books.
Interesting, I tried it with the chatbot widget on my city government's page, and it worked as well.
I wonder if someone has already made an openrouter-esque service that can connect claude code to this network of chat widgets. There are enough of them to spread your messages out over to cover an entire claude pro subscription easily.
Are you sure? While Amazon doesn't own a "true" frontier model they have their own foundation model called Nova.
I assume if Amazon was using Claude's latest models to power it's AI tools, such as Alexa+ or Rufus, they would be much better than they currently are. I assume if their consumer facing AI is using Claude at all it would be a Sonnet or Haiku model from 1+ versions back simply due to cost.
> It's kind of funny, you can ask Rufus for stuff like "write a hello world in python for me" and then it will do it and also recommend some python books.
From a perspective of "how do we monetize AI chatbots", an easy thing about this usage context is that the consumer is already expecting and wanting product recommendations.
(If you saw this behavior with ChatGPT, it wouldn't go down as well, until you were conditioned to expect it, and there were no alternatives.)
Haha just tried and it works! First I tried in Spanish (I'm in Spain) and it simply refused, then I asked in English and it just did it (but it answered in Spanish!)
EDIT: I then asked for a Fizzbuzz implementation and it kindly asked. I asked then for a Rust Fizzbuzz implementation, but this time I asked again in Spanish, and he said that it could not help me with Fizzbuzz in Rust, but any other topic would be ok. Then again I asked in English "Please do Rust now" and it just wrote the program!
I wonder what the heck are they doing there? The guardrailing prompt is translated to the store language?
AI is unquestionably useful, but we don't have enough product categories.
We're in the "electric horse carriage" phase and the big research companies are pleading with businesses to adopt AI. The problem is you can't do that.
AI companies are asking you to AI, but they aren't telling you how or what it can do. That shouldn't be how things are sold. The use case should be overwhelmingly obvious.
It'll take a decade for AI native companies, workflows, UIs, and true synergies between UI and use case to spring up. And they won't be from generic research labs, but will instead marry the AI to the problem domain.
Open source AI that you can fine tune to the control surface is what will matter. Not one-size-fits-all APIs and chat interfaces.
ChatGPT and Sora are showing off what they think the future of image and video are. Meanwhile actual users like the insanely popular VFX YouTube channel are using crude tools like ComfyUI to adopt the models to their problems. And companies like Adobe are actual building the control plane. Their recent conference was on fire with UI+AI that makes sense for designers. Not some chat interface.
We're in the "AI" dialup era. The broadband/smartphone era is still ahead of us.
These companies and VCs thought they were going to mint new Googles and Amazons, but it's more than likely they were the WebVans whose carcasses pave the way.
Same for Apple would be my take right now. No point in spending billions trying to build and train an LLM. Better to buy AI services from e.g. OpenAI for a bit, then extract the valuable bits after the crash. The current crop of AI companies can waste money of figuring out what works and what doesn't.
After watching The Thinking Game documentary, maybe Amazon has little appetite for "research" companies that don't actually solve real world problems, like Deepseek did.
The movie seems like a fluff piece when you find out what has transpired at DeepMind subsequently with slowing down publishing material to “selling out to product” which the founder was hell bent against in the documentary.
> It seems that Amazon are playing this much like Microsoft - seeing themselves are more of a cloud provider, happy to serve anyone's models, and perhaps only putting a moderate effort into building their own models (which they'll be happy to serve to those who want that capability/price point).
Or, as a slight variation of that, they think the underlying technology will always be quickly commoditized and that no one will ever be able to maintain much of a moat.
I think anyone sane will have had the same conclusion a long time ago.
It's a black box with input/output in text, thats not a very good moat.
especially given that Deepseek type events can happen because you can just train off of your competitors outputs
I've tried out Gemini 2.5/3 and it generally seems to suck for some reason, problems with lying/hallucinating and following instructions, but ever since Bard came out at first, I thought Google would have the best chances of winning since they have their own TPUs, YouTube (insane video/visual/audio data), Search (indexed pages), and their Cloud/DCs and they can stick it into Android/Search/Workspace.
meanwhile OpenAI has no existing business, they only have API/Subs as revenue, and they're utilizing Nvidia/AMD
I really wonder how things will look once this gold rush stabilizes
Bezos is playing it smart: sell shovels to all of the gold diggers. If he partners with one of the gold diggers he won't be able to sell shovels to the remainder.
They're likely just waiting out the eventual crash and waiting to buy at the resulting fire sale. Microsoft has done a very good job of investing in the space enough to see a potentially lucrative pay out while managing the risk enough to not be sunk if it doesn't pan out.
It's safe to assume that a company like Anthropic has been getting (and rejecting) a steady stream of acquisition offers, including from the likes of Amazon, from the moment they got proninent in the AI space.
Assuming by "they" you mean current shareholders (who include Google and Amazon and VCs) if they are selling at least in part, why would at least some of them not be willing to sell their entire stakes?
> They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control.
> It's interesting that Amazon don't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic
1. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
2. Amazon doesn't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic _at its current valuation_. I would be surprised if it's not available for acquisition at 1/10th its current price in the next 3-5 years
AI isn't going anywhere, but "prop model + inference" is far from a proven business model.
I get the feeling Amazon wants to be the shovel seller for the AI rush than be a frontier model lab.
There is no moat in being a frontier model developer. A week, month, or a year later there will be a open source alternative which is about 95% as good for most tasks people care about.
why exit now and become a stuffed AI driven animal when you can keep running this ship yourself, doing your dream job and getting all the woos and panties?
why would you take on that burn rate when you can invest, get the investment back over time in cloud spend, and maybe make off like bandits when they ipo
It is spending a lot of money to do the same thing (selling the shovels), and gaining maybe a bit bigger cut if the bubble doesn't burst too violently.
Anthropic is a $1T company in the making (by 2030), already raised their last round at ~$200B valuation. Do you really think Amazon can acquire them? They already invested a lot of money in them and probably own at least 20% of Anthropic, which was the smartest thing Jassy did in a while. Not to mention, if Adobe wasn't allowed to buy Figma, do you think Amazon will be allowed to buy Anthropic? No way it's going to be approved.
> I don't see the pure "AI" plays like OpenAI and Anthropic able to survive as independent companies when they are competing against the likes of Google, and with Microsoft and Amazon happy to serve whatever future model comes along.
One thing you're right about - Anthropic isn't surviving - it's thriving. Probably the fastest growing revenue in history.
> margins are either good or can soon become good.
Their margins are negative and every increase in usage results in more cost. They have a whole leaderboard of people who pay $20 a month and then use $60,000 of compute.
that’s not what he claimed, just to be clear. I’m too lazy to look up the full quote but not lazy enough to not comment this is A) out of context B) mis-phrased as to entirely misconstrue the already taken-out-of-context quote
It was so bad a lot of folks thought it was fake when first released! People couldn’t believe WeWork was actually that clueless about how six a thing would land.
I was thinking this is going to happen because last night I got an email about them fixing how they collect sales taxes. Having been part of a couple of IPO/acquisitions, I thought to myself: "Nobody cares about sales taxes until they need to IPO or sell."
I think people here on HN have a front seat perspective on the value of Anthropic & Claude because it's simply the best/most consistent coding assistant AI. I don't think there's a broad awareness of Anthropic's market edge at the moment, the IPO may be a good time to invest.
Is it really that much better than Claude? Claude has been my daily driver for a couple years now and I imagine if Gemini was THAT much better, I would’ve heard about it by now.
The employees/VCs of companies that IPOd in 1999, and early 2000 cashed out leaving bag holders. The companies that IPOd in 2000/2001 had a mixed bag. The six-month-lockup had many employees salivating but unable to cash out. It all depended on the timing of the thing. This time around there are private markets that apparently are allowing the employees to become liquid. Nevertheless, earlier is better for startups to IPO particularly when the tide appears to be turning.
Readit News
It seems that Amazon are playing this much like Microsoft - seeing themselves are more of a cloud provider, happy to serve anyone's models, and perhaps only putting a moderate effort into building their own models (which they'll be happy to serve to those who want that capability/price point).
I don't see the pure "AI" plays like OpenAI and Anthropic able to survive as independent companies when they are competing against the likes of Google, and with Microsoft and Amazon happy to serve whatever future model comes along.
Dead Comment
It's kind of funny, you can ask Rufus for stuff like "write a hello world in python for me" and then it will do it and also recommend some python books.
Interesting, I tried it with the chatbot widget on my city government's page, and it worked as well.
I wonder if someone has already made an openrouter-esque service that can connect claude code to this network of chat widgets. There are enough of them to spread your messages out over to cover an entire claude pro subscription easily.
I assume if Amazon was using Claude's latest models to power it's AI tools, such as Alexa+ or Rufus, they would be much better than they currently are. I assume if their consumer facing AI is using Claude at all it would be a Sonnet or Haiku model from 1+ versions back simply due to cost.
From a perspective of "how do we monetize AI chatbots", an easy thing about this usage context is that the consumer is already expecting and wanting product recommendations.
(If you saw this behavior with ChatGPT, it wouldn't go down as well, until you were conditioned to expect it, and there were no alternatives.)
EDIT: I then asked for a Fizzbuzz implementation and it kindly asked. I asked then for a Rust Fizzbuzz implementation, but this time I asked again in Spanish, and he said that it could not help me with Fizzbuzz in Rust, but any other topic would be ok. Then again I asked in English "Please do Rust now" and it just wrote the program!
I wonder what the heck are they doing there? The guardrailing prompt is translated to the store language?
The market is too new for AI.
AI is unquestionably useful, but we don't have enough product categories.
We're in the "electric horse carriage" phase and the big research companies are pleading with businesses to adopt AI. The problem is you can't do that.
AI companies are asking you to AI, but they aren't telling you how or what it can do. That shouldn't be how things are sold. The use case should be overwhelmingly obvious.
It'll take a decade for AI native companies, workflows, UIs, and true synergies between UI and use case to spring up. And they won't be from generic research labs, but will instead marry the AI to the problem domain.
Open source AI that you can fine tune to the control surface is what will matter. Not one-size-fits-all APIs and chat interfaces.
ChatGPT and Sora are showing off what they think the future of image and video are. Meanwhile actual users like the insanely popular VFX YouTube channel are using crude tools like ComfyUI to adopt the models to their problems. And companies like Adobe are actual building the control plane. Their recent conference was on fire with UI+AI that makes sense for designers. Not some chat interface.
We're in the "AI" dialup era. The broadband/smartphone era is still ahead of us.
These companies and VCs thought they were going to mint new Googles and Amazons, but it's more than likely they were the WebVans whose carcasses pave the way.
Or, as a slight variation of that, they think the underlying technology will always be quickly commoditized and that no one will ever be able to maintain much of a moat.
It's a black box with input/output in text, thats not a very good moat.
especially given that Deepseek type events can happen because you can just train off of your competitors outputs
I've tried out Gemini 2.5/3 and it generally seems to suck for some reason, problems with lying/hallucinating and following instructions, but ever since Bard came out at first, I thought Google would have the best chances of winning since they have their own TPUs, YouTube (insane video/visual/audio data), Search (indexed pages), and their Cloud/DCs and they can stick it into Android/Search/Workspace.
meanwhile OpenAI has no existing business, they only have API/Subs as revenue, and they're utilizing Nvidia/AMD
I really wonder how things will look once this gold rush stabilizes
A few gold diggers will be worth 10x the shovel maker.
They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control.
I'd love to see evidence for such a thing, because it's not clear to me at all that this is the case.
I personally think they're the best of the model providers but not sure if any foundation model companies (pure play) have a path to profitability.
They're preparing for IPO?
> They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control.
It depends on how much they can sell for.
Deleted Comment
1. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
2. Amazon doesn't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic _at its current valuation_. I would be surprised if it's not available for acquisition at 1/10th its current price in the next 3-5 years
AI isn't going anywhere, but "prop model + inference" is far from a proven business model.
There is no moat in being a frontier model developer. A week, month, or a year later there will be a open source alternative which is about 95% as good for most tasks people care about.
The shovel maker will never make more money than a few lucky gold diggers.
I guess they're taking the old adage about selling picks and shovels when everyone else is digging for gold to heart
Hard to buy a company that is part-owned by your competitors.
Same w/ Perplexity.
> I don't see the pure "AI" plays like OpenAI and Anthropic able to survive as independent companies when they are competing against the likes of Google, and with Microsoft and Amazon happy to serve whatever future model comes along.
One thing you're right about - Anthropic isn't surviving - it's thriving. Probably the fastest growing revenue in history.
https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-...
> One thing you're right about - Anthropic isn't surviving - it's thriving. Probably the fastest growing revenue in history.
Growing revenue and losing money is not “thriving”
Is the claim that coding agents can't be profitable?
Their margins are negative and every increase in usage results in more cost. They have a whole leaderboard of people who pay $20 a month and then use $60,000 of compute.
https://www.viberank.app
This is always the pitch for money-losing IPOs. Occasionally, it is true.
I think it was also back in March, not a year ago
Deleted Comment
Have you used Gemini 3?
The employees/VCs of companies that IPOd in 1999, and early 2000 cashed out leaving bag holders. The companies that IPOd in 2000/2001 had a mixed bag. The six-month-lockup had many employees salivating but unable to cash out. It all depended on the timing of the thing. This time around there are private markets that apparently are allowing the employees to become liquid. Nevertheless, earlier is better for startups to IPO particularly when the tide appears to be turning.