This whole blog post is seemingly about Google, not about the user. "Why We Built Antigravity" etc. "We want Antigravity to be the home base for software development in the era of agents" - cool, why would I as the user care about that?
Readit NewsSuper interesting direction. I've been pretty skeptical of “AI for stock picking” for the same reasons you mention. Curious how you handle the challenge of companies pivoting into new business areas that don't have historical precedent? For example, Apple's shift into services or Amazon's AWS dominance weren't really predictable from their earlier financials.
One interesting finding in Stockfisher data is that a lot of these business pivots are actually planned by managers years in advance, in their 10-K and 10-Q filings.
Yes, managers are not good forecasters. But they do get certain things right. And if you figure out the patterns of what types of manager promises tend to play out, and assess them individually for their reliability, you can reason about these business model changes decently well.
This seems like a really interesting usecase of LLMs. I’m curious how you’ve validated the outputs and what gives you confidence that the forecasts are good and not affected by hallucinations or incomplete information?
Constant iteration, mostly!
The most interesting aspect of this is backtesting. Quant models get run on past data to see if their predictions work.
When you use LLMs agents, though, you run into their memorized knowledge of the world. And then there's the fact that they do their research on the open internet. It makes backtesting hard - but not impossible.
We wrote about how we do our pastcasting validation here: https://stockfisher.app/backtesting-forecasts-that-use-llms
ddp26 commented on Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix techcrunch.com/2025/11/12... · Posted by u/nharada
This is a huge sign of confidence that they think they can do this safely and at scale... Freeways might appear "easy" on the surface, but there are all sorts of long tail edge-cases that make them insanely tricky to do confidently without a driver. This will unlock a lot for them with all of the smaller US cities (where highways are essential) they've announced plans for over the next year or so.
I agree, but it's funny to think that Project Chauffeur (as it was known then) was doing completely driverless freeway circuits in the bay area as far back as 2012! Back when they couldn't do the simplest things with traffic lights.
I think anyone back then would be totally shocked that urban and suburban driving launched to the public before freeway driving.
Hi Parag, congrats on the launch. We'll try this out at FutureSearch.
I agree there is a need for such APIs. Using Google or Bing isn't enough, and Exa and Brave haven't clearly solved this yet.
ddp26 commented on The Karpathy Interview, 6 Months After AI 2027 futuresearch.ai/ai-2027-6... · Posted by u/ddp26
Hi, author here, sorry I was unclear. This article does make more sense if you've listened to the Dwarkesh podcast linked, and read AI 2027 as was linked.
I realize now that it was presumptuous to assume people had done both of these things.
And to actually answer your question:
> Why would Karpathy's view be different for AI and non-AI-experts?
For people who understand AI, they can engage with the substance of his claims, about reinforcement learning, continuous learning, and his points about the 9s of reliability.
For people who don't, the article suggests thinking about AI as some black-box technology, and asking questions about base rates: how long does adoption normally take? What do the companies developing the technology normally do?
> It does not even give a statement about the reasoning behind why Karpathy said getting to https://ai-2027.com is unlikely.
That's the substance of the podcast, Karpathy justifies his views fairly well and at length.
> It also does not clearly define what AI 2027 is?
Dwarkesh covered AI 2027 when it came out, but for those who don't know, it's a deeply researched case of runaway AI that effectively destroys humanity in just 2-3 years after publication. This is what I mean by "short timelines".
ddp26 commented on The Karpathy Interview, 6 Months After AI 2027 futuresearch.ai/ai-2027-6... · Posted by u/ddp26
I find this article quite poorly constructed. It does not even give a statement about the reasoning behind why Karpathy said getting to https://ai-2027.com is unlikely. It also does not clearly define what AI 2027 is?
The following paragraph is almost complete gibberish:
"For AI experts, Karpathy's view is a better counterargument to short timelines than ours. But for non-AI-experts, we think the practical considerations we raised are worth reflecting on with 6 more months of evidence. As forecasters, this is more of an "outside view" - regardless of how exactly AI improves, what problems might slow down an R&D-based takeoff scenario?"
Why would Karpathy's view be different for AI and non-AI-experts?
Did they use AI to write the article?
Hi, author here, sorry I was unclear. This article does make more sense if you've listened to the Dwarkesh podcast linked, and read AI 2027 as was linked.
I realize now that it was presumptuous to assume people had done both of these things.
ddp26 commented on Chess grandmaster Daniel Naroditsky has died old.reddit.com/r/chess/co... · Posted by u/ntnbr
This seems as good a place as any for a mini obituary.
I'm 6 years older than Danya, and we shared the same beloved chess coach in the Bay Area. I played him in a tournament game when I was 17 and he was 11, at the Mechanics Club in SF. I was an NM, and he held me to a draw. (Afterward he told me my position was better when we agreed to a draw, which was news to me!)
Around that time Danya won the World Under 12 Championship. Americans almost never win those events, and it was a big big deal in the American chess community.
But to me, most impressive was when in 2007, at age 12, in 6th or 7th grade, he won a much easier tournament, the California High School championship. I had won it the previous year, as an 11th grader - my crowning achievement. We all knew then that Naroditsky was a generational talent, but it was something special that this child - very tall for his age, but still oh so young - beat up all the serious high schooler competitors.
He then went to Stanford, and took an introductory CS course taught by my brother. Everything I heard indicated he was an exceptional contribution to Stanford's culture. He had such wide interests and curiosity, and became a history major. He probably was the most erudite chess player of his generation, reading (and writing!) books at a huge clip.
I remember vividly in his early streaming days, long before Danya became an internet chess celebrity, he was taking challenges while I was watching, so I logged in to the site and played him. I managed to beat him in a blitz game in front of all of his viewers. He was mad! I'm a strong blitz player but he is world-class, consistently a top ~10 blitz player in the world for the last 10 years. (I used to watch him on the old terminal-like chess server, the Internet Chess Club, under the handle "Danya", as he destroyed everyone while still a preteen and largely unknown.)
I don't want to add to the speculation to what happened to him. Suffice to say, I am not convinced by the story people are jumping to.
He will be deeply missed, and he will not be forgotten. He was absolutely unique and a gem of the chess world. Farewell, Danya.
Is the claim that coding agents can't be profitable?