This article is funny. It looks like they pre-wrote and expected the JOLTS report today to be weak. But, it ended up being hot and they still published. Quits increased by 250k [1]. Quits haven't been that high since December 2022.
The graphs in the article don't support the text of the article or the headline.
Peak job quitting rate was briefly 4.5M (it was above 4.1M for 12 of 26 months), but has been closer to 4.0M during the "great resignation". It is currently 4.0M, so within rounding error of median. It was at about 3.5M for the second half of 2020, where the graphs start.
Open jobs are at 10M off a peak of 12M vs. 6.8M at the beginning of their graph.
They don't report pre-pandemic numbers, but the graphs suggest the market is significantly hotter than it was in 2020, with no clear trend in recent months.
While quits are still above pre-pandemic levels, to me they look below where'd they be if you charted out the pre-pandemic trend of increasing quits: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUL
Not sure if they are talking about my buddy who still makes 80k/yr in his 30s as an engineer because his company keeps dangling 'you could go to Japan for a few weeks' for the last 7 years. Or they are talking about the current economic conditions.
Not to comment on your friend's situation, I just feel it's worth noting for passersby and posterity that there is nothing necessarily irrational about choosing less lucrative employment if it aligns better with one's value system.
At the same time, don't let a company string you along
I think your statement isn't strong enough. Choosing lower compensation in exchange for work that aligns with your value system is an entirely rational thing to do.
I was making a touch under 80k/yr as a (physical, non software) engineer in my 30s not so long ago. People around me were making 40-50k. Professors in town made 60k. It was in a LCOL city in the northeast and it was comfortable.
It really depends on your lifestyle and location. Tech salaries are not the norm for most people.
I don't think people here have a good sense of what a low cost of living really means. I was still an Army officer in my early 30s and still fairly junior. Made more than 80k, but not a ton more, and it isn't totally comparable, especially with completely free healthcare, but we lived like kings. My first house was on nearly a quarter acre, four beds, three baths, three-car garage, historic trees, in a very quiet neighborhood, no crime, and the purchase price was $120,000. Not only could I easily raise kids, but much lower paid enlisted personnel still raised kids, too. That was only 2010. Housing costs have certainly gone up since then, but nowhere near the ridiculous costs on the coasts. My wife's sister just bought a townhouse in Queens that is finally big enough for their kids, and it's not any bigger than my first house, and they paid $2.5 million. You just can't compare what counts as a livable salary when some places cost 10 times as much for similar housing. And the fact that they're even in Queens at all is because they can't afford Manhattan. I'm not even sure it truly is comparable since the places there don't have garages. Her last place they had to buy a parking spot separately, for only one car, for an additional $60,000. That's half the price of my first house to park one car.
Even in a LCOL area, with a family, I would not feel comfortable on $80k per year as I would not be able to save enough to afford out of pocket healthcare expenses for family, plus premiums, plus retirement savings, plus education savings for kids.
Plus it is LCOL area, implying that there probably will not be many alternative $80k jobs if the one I had went away.
Yeah, the 200k+ salaries have only recently became available to much of the country thanks to the proliferation of remote work. Not everyone is willing to make the sacrifice of living in the bay area for those faang salaries. There are more important things in life than money once you earn enough to take care of your needs.
As someone who lives in Japan, yeah a company paid trip is cool, but it's really not that expensive to visit. If it's not actioned/planned how is that really a hook?
people are irrational about their jobs and compensation, like those people who decline raises because they think its puts them in a higher tax bracket and they'll lose more money.
Your friend is basically useful idiot. Yes you can tell him what I said here. As long as there are NO contractual bindings, his chance can be more of zero than going. If Japan is his intention, quit his job and look for others. Maybe dropping by Taiwan, Singapore, or HK first. My friend of 2 decade landed Japan job (internal transfer) by joining a local Asian bank with a branch in Japan. And never once they dangled to him "you could/will be going to Japan".
It is 'firing on all cylinders', but a lot of people also got a pay cut either from pay cut to avoid being laid-off or being laid-off and hired by smaller companies (smaller pay). Meanwhile, salary/bonus for CEO increased.
No only the paycheck got smaller, but also prices for literally everything went up by at least 20% (milk, bread, eggs, meat, etc.)
The good side is that smaller companies are hiring, because a lot of people are hurting.
True! But the only solution to that is to organize/unionize. Wages must go up (to outpace inflation, which there is strong evidence is not being caused by a wage-price spiral [1] [2]), and profits must go down (which arguably have nowhere to go but down due to go forward interest rate policy, tax policy, structural demographics, etc [3] [4]). This is the only lever available to arrive at that outcome. Shareholders, boards, and executive leadership aren't going to give profits back willingly to the people who do the actual work.
Follow along the current Teamsters/Yellow trucking conflict. Yellow is threatening to close up shop vs pay reasonable wages, and the union is willing to kill the business versus allow them to continue to squeeze labor for their profits [5]. In a macro where labor is in excess demand for the next decade [6] [7], this is a reasonable way to operate.
It appears there is a reallocation going on in the economy. The link you shared notes that large companies are shedding jobs while companies with less than 50 employees account for most of the growth.
The job growth is largely in the hospitality industry while tech continues to tighten.
I know WSJ has coined the term "richcession" to describe the elimination of high paying jobs and their replacement with more lower paying ones.
Will be interesting to see how the long term trends play out.
I live in Miami, where the hospitality industry dominates the employment landscape. Jobs are being taken left and right....but for very little pay and even poorer working conditions.
There is some tech but comparatively very little when stacked against any other growing major metro area, and those that are here aren't hiring locally, they're just companies relocating here for tax purposes and bringing existing workers with them.
"I know WSJ has coined the term "richcession" to describe the elimination of high paying jobs and their replacement with more lower paying ones."
"Middleclasscession" would be a better term although even harder to pronounce. It seems no matter what's happening, the rich will get richer, middle class and lower will get poorer. I still can't get my head around the fact that during COVID the top x percent doubled their net worth while most of everybody else lost out.
Feel that we’re at the beginning of a shift in the global order. Every country seems to be scrambling to secure critical raw materials and goods. Should be a good time if you’re a worker as a lot of jobs lost overseas start coming back.
If anything that's a good thing because it seems to reduce inequality. There's too much inequality for the investment/consumption balance to be healthy long term.
There never was any "great resignation". It was an artifact of year-over-year pandemic numbers.
Normal job switching was just pent-up and time-delayed to become concentrated into a shorter time window for a while. The media reported that illusion of temporary monthly numbers as if it were real, because of course it's a catchy story.
I realize this is hypothetical, but I’d run the numbers before putting that much down… If you do 20%, you can put the rest in an index fund which will probably earn more than the interest rate on the loan. (Though at this point it’s going to be close.)
Not all debt is bad. I have enough cash to buy a car, but the manufacturer was willing to give me a loan at 0% interest. I pay for as many things as possible on my credit cards and then pay them off every time I get paid while accumulating rewards. There are tax benefits to having a mortgage, and the loan is backed by the house; it is usually a far better situation than renting.
On the other hand, taking out massive loans (several times what you had) for education is questionable in most cases. I've known people who are reasonably intelligent who think it is a good idea to send their children to private universities with high tuition for undergrad degrees in fields that the school isn't known for, which I find baffling.
10 is like every second of your life is nothing but severe pain and trauma and having a rare disease
and
1 is being Elon Musk level rich/not having stress (I'm sure he has tons of high level stress none of us could relate to but... how much of that is self-induced because his definition of fun is risk/business/trying to amass more wealth?)
where does "have to work a job you don't really want to because you need to be able to afford to live" place? 5? 8? 3?
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/job-openings-fall-by-half-a-...
Peak job quitting rate was briefly 4.5M (it was above 4.1M for 12 of 26 months), but has been closer to 4.0M during the "great resignation". It is currently 4.0M, so within rounding error of median. It was at about 3.5M for the second half of 2020, where the graphs start.
Open jobs are at 10M off a peak of 12M vs. 6.8M at the beginning of their graph.
They don't report pre-pandemic numbers, but the graphs suggest the market is significantly hotter than it was in 2020, with no clear trend in recent months.
Not sure if they are talking about my buddy who still makes 80k/yr in his 30s as an engineer because his company keeps dangling 'you could go to Japan for a few weeks' for the last 7 years. Or they are talking about the current economic conditions.
At the same time, don't let a company string you along
I think your statement isn't strong enough. Choosing lower compensation in exchange for work that aligns with your value system is an entirely rational thing to do.
It really depends on your lifestyle and location. Tech salaries are not the norm for most people.
Plus it is LCOL area, implying that there probably will not be many alternative $80k jobs if the one I had went away.
Dead Comment
There's some JavaScript content in there that doesn't get archived the same (the image gets a snapshot but the interactivity is gone).
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Quits may be down, but the economy is firing on all cylinders.
Follow along the current Teamsters/Yellow trucking conflict. Yellow is threatening to close up shop vs pay reasonable wages, and the union is willing to kill the business versus allow them to continue to squeeze labor for their profits [5]. In a macro where labor is in excess demand for the next decade [6] [7], this is a reasonable way to operate.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35077748
[2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-acknowledges-...
[3] https://www.marketplace.org/2023/05/25/decline-in-corporate-...
[4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/end-of-an-era-th...
[5] https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-teamsters-is-willing-t...
[6] https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-wor...
[7] https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge...
The job growth is largely in the hospitality industry while tech continues to tighten.
I know WSJ has coined the term "richcession" to describe the elimination of high paying jobs and their replacement with more lower paying ones.
Will be interesting to see how the long term trends play out.
There is some tech but comparatively very little when stacked against any other growing major metro area, and those that are here aren't hiring locally, they're just companies relocating here for tax purposes and bringing existing workers with them.
"Middleclasscession" would be a better term although even harder to pronounce. It seems no matter what's happening, the rich will get richer, middle class and lower will get poorer. I still can't get my head around the fact that during COVID the top x percent doubled their net worth while most of everybody else lost out.
There's a reallocation going on all right. From more middle class people to more poor people.
Normal job switching was just pent-up and time-delayed to become concentrated into a shorter time window for a while. The media reported that illusion of temporary monthly numbers as if it were real, because of course it's a catchy story.
Emphasis mine. So you do agree there actually was a great resignation. You just disagree with the explanation given for it.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16O3M
Had $20k of student debt at one point. After that experience, I decided to live mostly without debt.
The only exception might be a mortgage of 25-33% of a house value, I'd put 75-66% in cash.
Someone who can put up 66-75% for a desirable home generally is.
On the other hand, taking out massive loans (several times what you had) for education is questionable in most cases. I've known people who are reasonably intelligent who think it is a good idea to send their children to private universities with high tuition for undergrad degrees in fields that the school isn't known for, which I find baffling.
Can you explain your rationality for this? You're still allowing the bank to have senior ownership of your house except... for less money.
If you default, they keep your house, no matter what the debt-to-value is.
Like, I understand saying "I couldn't make my mortgage payments so the bank took the house, but I guess they did pay for 90% of it".
But this seems like all the insecurity of a mortgage for a lot less money?
10 is like every second of your life is nothing but severe pain and trauma and having a rare disease
and
1 is being Elon Musk level rich/not having stress (I'm sure he has tons of high level stress none of us could relate to but... how much of that is self-induced because his definition of fun is risk/business/trying to amass more wealth?)
where does "have to work a job you don't really want to because you need to be able to afford to live" place? 5? 8? 3?