Everytime someone says: "Our robot/drone can be used for finding hidden people in hard to reach locations" the cynic in me thinks that these are just codewords for: "Our killbots will revolutionize the urban battlefield. DoD please fund us". Can someone please prove me wrong?
Slaughterbots was meant to be a video against such technology, but I'm 100% sure there are plenty of companies who are pointing at it and saying "This. Exactly this. This is what we want."
Is it really more terrifying somehow than a guy with a machine gun going and mowing down civilians? Or a maniac in a truck plowing in pedestrians. In effect, the other approaches are a lot more accessible to anyone.
I'm pretty sure Slaughterbots was trying to provoke people into building DIY loitering munitions to prove the video wrong. The drones will be expensive, low in capability, can be intercepted (the video simply postulated that they can't be shot down by uh snipers?) and 99% of the time they will be controlled by humans. After all, being wrong on the internet is the best way to get a correct response.
I am honestly more scared of chemical weapons and barrel bombs. You know, things that have actually been confirmed to have devastating impact in Syria.
Somehow the typical hacker news commenter is worried about very precise robotic hit men operating in large groups to be used for indiscriminate killing when WW2 weapons were already enough to wipe out entire cities. You're more likely to have died from the atomic bombs deployed in Nagasaki or Hiroshima than from some tiny plastic drone with a 5 minute flight time.
I mean think about a hypothetical nuclear weapon that kills everyone recognized via facial recognition in a 10 kilometer radius. Most bystanders aren't important enough to have their face on that database.
Not obvious if tiny drones pack enough heat to be relevant in an urban battlefield scenario or if they are actually useful compared to conventional approaches.
A swam of tiny drones could easily overwhelm an enemy....
Lots of options. If against personel they just kamikaze in... if against armoured targets a small explosive charge on a hundred or so drones could easily destroy a target.
Do a Google search for drone propeller injuries. Those are accidental; now envision 20 of them working intentionally to slice you apart with the props.
I can't prove you wrong I'm afraid, because the only difference between the two is a weapon. But this is the two-sided sword in a lot of technological advancements; advances in medical science can be used to create bioweapons for example; advances in nuclear physics allowed both the nuclear fission and fusion generator, but also the nuke, and spaceflight evolved from long distance missiles and alongside ICBMs, the push was for both scientific and military progress simultaneously.
There is nothing wrong with using killing robots to defend your country. Once you are attacked and your family is in danger of rape and murder you will ask the gov to use any means available. Would you prefer them to use artisanal swords? Its the new dawn, the danger is real, there is no place for conspiracies ( that's probably when skynet will be created, oh well everyone wants to survive now not later in ideal future)
Unfortunately the same technology can be used to attack people. The world would maybe be a safer place if weapons technology hadn't evolved from sticks and stones.
Watching the current war, I think those drones are not that useful: slow, short-range, suspectible to bad weather and visibility, and carrying too small warhead.
So it's like using a laptop to hammer a nail. There are way more deadliest, simplest and reliable solutions, unfortunately.
I think this war shows how useful they are in urban combat, not a place where ballistic missile speeds and range are relevant.
Small warhead would be a feature in close combat.
Guns/muskets weren't that useful initially either. But the potential was there. Bows and arrows proved to be more effective for 100+ years before guns eventually won out.
> So it's like using a laptop to hammer a nail.
No. It's like using a nail gun rather than a hammer.
> There are way more deadliest, simplest and reliable solutions, unfortunately.
But none with the potential of drones and swarms. Cheap, easy to replace units that could fly, provide recoissance along with offensive/defensive capabilities. And it's just the beginning.
I suspect most armies, law enforcement, private mercenaries, mall cops, etc will be using drones in the future.
> Watching the current war, I think those drones are not that useful
I'm going to copy an analogy I saw elsewhere: what we're seeing now is the equivalent of how planes were used in WWI; slow, not very effective, with limited range and roles. By the time WWII came around, there was technological and strategic improvements leading to to high-alt bombers, fighter escorts, dive bombers and jet engines. Nothing a WWI pilot would recognize. Drones will likely evolve in ways that would make their current use seem quaint.
Traditionally it has been very hard to force the will of the few onto the many, without at least having some of those many taking part in the game. There are technologies with the potential to massively alter that equation.
If you develop such a technology like this one you can be sure it might be used precisely for this purpose: powerful men now need fewer poor men to stay in power.
Maybe it is me living in Germany, but the imagination how the Nazis would have put to use the technology we are currently developing makes me shiver. Many of us create technology as if our democracies are built forever. And they are — until they are not. Or they are not — but not where we live, so we don't care.
I get, that it is hard to find any technology that couldn't in some way be abused in a horrendous fashion by the next authotarian society — however there certainly is a gradient there. And we decide where we feel comfortable to put ourselves.
Prior to the invention of reliable, accurate firearms, for much of history a relatively small number of dedicated warriors (e.g. armored knights on warhorses, samurai, cavalry, archers, etc) could dominate a much larger population of commoners (and conscript them into lesser forces such as infantry to increase their strength). To a degree, heavy weapons such as tanks, artillery, and armored helicopters allow dictators to exercise control over their people by employing a moderate sized army. Anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles appear to have cut into this advantage, but you still need pretty serious support from state actors to acquire those.
Different technological innovations in warfare have sometimes been leveling (eg guns as “the great equalizer”, anti-tank missiles) and sometimes had the opposite effect (e.g. attack helicopters and fighter jets). It does seem plausible that robotic weapons will favor those with vast resources, even when they lack manpower. It’s not impossible that it could go the other way, though. Actually, I can see drones going both ways.
Isn’t the situation in Russia right now an example of a single individual dominating millions? And all back through history from the advent of armies, isn’t it the same thing?
> Many of us create technology as if our democracies are built forever. And they are — until they are not.
I agree 100%, this is why we need more people working on getting 3D printing and other fabrication techniques into the hands of as many people as we can. The right to bear arms holds no water in the US as the DoD so massively outweighs any possible resistance the populace could offer; the only way to safeguard our democracies is to bring the scales back to level.
The trouble is, there are undemocratic societies where this is being built as well. This drone swarm is actually from China. The reasons why we build these systems is to prevent the undemocratic societies gaining power over us. The threat of our own societies becoming undemocratic doesn't feel as pressing as the threat of undemocratic societies that exist today.
The atomic bomb is a good example, a lot of the scientist working on it wouldn't have if there weren't fears that Nazi Germany was going to build it first.
This also reminds of the prisoners dilemma. If both parties choose not to build these systems we would be all fine, if one builds it and the others doesn't the other is screwed. If both build it they are both screwed but not as much.
We are building ever more precise weapons with less and less collateral damage and you are worried about evil people using the precise ones?
It sounds like you are making the argument that collateral damage will make people more likely to rebel against an authoritarian regimes. Is that actually true?
Maybe Ocarina of Time was oddly prescient and we'll soon have little quadcopters following us around saying "Hey! Listen!" to alert us to fairly-obvious details.
Vernor Vinge's work is amazing. In the story "A fire upon the deep" he introduces the most amazing concepts, and there's a realistic way that an AI reboots itself after being in cold storage, there's a Usenet communication between civilizations, and the most impressive was an idea that there's regions in the universe where the speed of light is faster and brains work at a higher rate. It's an amazing work. Later he comes up with the prescient "focus factor" in the sequel.
Art imitates nature. All ideas are remixes of previous ideas, and ideas are ultimately rooted in observations from nature. A human mind in a vacuum wouldn’t be able to create anything.
I can understand the concerns of the technology might be abused in DoD but I should point out that it is much better to see this result on Science Robotics, TRO, ICRA, and IROS etc. Military is behind many technology innovations but this doesn't mean all technologies should be used for military purpose only.
Agree, aerial vehicles are slightly better than maritime vehicles in this sense. I left maritime robotics because I couldn’t find any decent paying job that is not defense related :( What we can do as a student team is to open-source it.
If you play opening sequence of Terminator you will notice that the weapons used are exactly what makes sense to deploy against Russia - Ai orchestrated drones, hi power laser (Raphael Tech) turrets mounted on autonomous vehicles. We just need to connect everything to supercomputer to come up with attack strategies in real time based on vast amounts of sensor data
I’m not sure if this is satire, but everything you’ve written is a terrible idea.
Expanding from Baktyar drones to autonomous ground weapons and lasers sounds ‘connected to a supercomputer’ sounds like a way to escalate the situation both within Ukraine, and to the rest of the connected community.
I wonder about the psychology of the people (researchers) working on "innovations" such as these (other things also come to mind, e.g. face detection in crowds, optimizing fragment distribution from bomb/granade explosions).
Are they just extremely myopic, and cannot see the consequences of their work at all?
Or naive, in that they only can imagine the positive use cases?
...or (to simplify) are they evil and fully understand and welcome the terrifying outcomes?
I fully understand the terrifying outcomes but would have no problem building these systems to act as deterrent, or counter-force, to the people who would use these "innovations" for evil purposes.
So there is a third option, alongside your original two.
They don't believe that "innovations" you mentioned are something 'dirty' or 'unpleasant'.
I think it's like contention between vegan vs non-vegan at the end of the day.
Or they hate the slaughterbots video and want to prove it wrong by building high tech drones that fall short of the science fiction depicted in the video. I think I would join that group.
I am honestly more scared of chemical weapons and barrel bombs. You know, things that have actually been confirmed to have devastating impact in Syria.
Somehow the typical hacker news commenter is worried about very precise robotic hit men operating in large groups to be used for indiscriminate killing when WW2 weapons were already enough to wipe out entire cities. You're more likely to have died from the atomic bombs deployed in Nagasaki or Hiroshima than from some tiny plastic drone with a 5 minute flight time.
I mean think about a hypothetical nuclear weapon that kills everyone recognized via facial recognition in a 10 kilometer radius. Most bystanders aren't important enough to have their face on that database.
"Once it exists, a weapon will never be unmade, and it will be used."
Example from REGA, a swiss SAR provider. https://www.rega.ch/en/our-missions/cutting-edge-technology/...
There's something about the swarming nature of these things that makes them even more unsettling.
Expect urban defence to feature a lot of nets in the near future.
Lots of options. If against personel they just kamikaze in... if against armoured targets a small explosive charge on a hundred or so drones could easily destroy a target.
They don’t really need armament to maim and kill.
So it's like using a laptop to hammer a nail. There are way more deadliest, simplest and reliable solutions, unfortunately.
> So it's like using a laptop to hammer a nail.
No. It's like using a nail gun rather than a hammer.
> There are way more deadliest, simplest and reliable solutions, unfortunately.
But none with the potential of drones and swarms. Cheap, easy to replace units that could fly, provide recoissance along with offensive/defensive capabilities. And it's just the beginning.
I suspect most armies, law enforcement, private mercenaries, mall cops, etc will be using drones in the future.
I'm going to copy an analogy I saw elsewhere: what we're seeing now is the equivalent of how planes were used in WWI; slow, not very effective, with limited range and roles. By the time WWII came around, there was technological and strategic improvements leading to to high-alt bombers, fighter escorts, dive bombers and jet engines. Nothing a WWI pilot would recognize. Drones will likely evolve in ways that would make their current use seem quaint.
Uhhh the latter is exactly what we're worried about
Traditionally it has been very hard to force the will of the few onto the many, without at least having some of those many taking part in the game. There are technologies with the potential to massively alter that equation.
If you develop such a technology like this one you can be sure it might be used precisely for this purpose: powerful men now need fewer poor men to stay in power.
Maybe it is me living in Germany, but the imagination how the Nazis would have put to use the technology we are currently developing makes me shiver. Many of us create technology as if our democracies are built forever. And they are — until they are not. Or they are not — but not where we live, so we don't care.
I get, that it is hard to find any technology that couldn't in some way be abused in a horrendous fashion by the next authotarian society — however there certainly is a gradient there. And we decide where we feel comfortable to put ourselves.
Different technological innovations in warfare have sometimes been leveling (eg guns as “the great equalizer”, anti-tank missiles) and sometimes had the opposite effect (e.g. attack helicopters and fighter jets). It does seem plausible that robotic weapons will favor those with vast resources, even when they lack manpower. It’s not impossible that it could go the other way, though. Actually, I can see drones going both ways.
I agree 100%, this is why we need more people working on getting 3D printing and other fabrication techniques into the hands of as many people as we can. The right to bear arms holds no water in the US as the DoD so massively outweighs any possible resistance the populace could offer; the only way to safeguard our democracies is to bring the scales back to level.
The atomic bomb is a good example, a lot of the scientist working on it wouldn't have if there weren't fears that Nazi Germany was going to build it first.
This also reminds of the prisoners dilemma. If both parties choose not to build these systems we would be all fine, if one builds it and the others doesn't the other is screwed. If both build it they are both screwed but not as much.
It sounds like you are making the argument that collateral damage will make people more likely to rebel against an authoritarian regimes. Is that actually true?
Nearing the singularity, most people have their own personal defence drone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge#Realtime/Bobble_s...
[1] https://youtu.be/m-_0gOM2iRg?t=245
The work done is by:
http://zju-fast.com/
Disclaimer: Roboticist, have worked with fast-lab on World Robotics Sailing Championship
Technology getting abused by the DoD is "fine". Technology that has very few applications outside the DoD is less fine.
Expanding from Baktyar drones to autonomous ground weapons and lasers sounds ‘connected to a supercomputer’ sounds like a way to escalate the situation both within Ukraine, and to the rest of the connected community.
Not sure why you think a bunch of ground drones are useful against ICBMs.
1. The navy is already testing ground-based lasers powerful enough to destroy drones and light aircraft.
Sure, this could be useful if your forest is made of 3ft-spaced branchless bamboos, with no bushes or anything else to hit.
Are they just extremely myopic, and cannot see the consequences of their work at all? Or naive, in that they only can imagine the positive use cases?
...or (to simplify) are they evil and fully understand and welcome the terrifying outcomes?
So there is a third option, alongside your original two.
- Use it for evil purposes
- Sell it to other nations that then use it for evil purposes
Anyone involved in the defence industry is complicit in the death of innocents, your third option is a fallacy.
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https://shield.ai/products/nova-class