What about other large-scale systems? E.g. desktop applications - for instance, how to design a large-scale desktop system such as Adobe Photoshop or MS Office.
You sound bullish so I wanted to share five risks in the short term that have been on my mind lately:
1) Evictions now allowed in 43 states after a pandemic moratorium on them. My state allowed them October 3rd. Supply.
2) A China conflict at any point. Disruption.
3) Taxes going up on the wealthy. Disruption.
4) Rates going up to counter inflation. I want this one since I have cash and don't care if rates are 2% or 20%. While I do want the free loan (2%), I prefer the market to crash. Disruption.
5) Vaccine mandate job losses. Supply.
Given this, I've been extremely hesitant lately. So I've been trying to hold off until January for my purchase to see how correct I am, or not, on these risks impacting the market. I don't see the point in waiting years as rent drains about $18,000 a year and you have to balance that with home ownership costs. Even with repairs, I don't mind slightly overpaying if it means getting out of rent slavery. I'm also buying a home that I can nearly buy outright. I'm determined to never lose a home due to job loss, tired of working for someone else, so a 30-year mortgage isn't happening under any circumstance. 15-year only.
The one way I've been trying to protect myself is at least seeking a 15% discount off market rate for any home that I do purchase. I see that happening in my city enough that I'm confident. Eats into the 40% buffer from 2019, so I'm still at significant risk but does take some bite off in the event of a market catastrophe.
Any thoughts are welcome. Definitely would appreciate it. Whether the answer is: buy now, or, buy in 15 years. I'll try to integrate them into my view and choices.
I have found a happy (to me) medium - I invest all of it diversified across low to high risk assets (muni bonds, i bonds, tips, mREITs, dividend stocks, stablecoins, growth stocks), and at this point just the interest/dividends (NOT counting unrealized gains!) almost cover even my crazy rent (3500/month, for the house we are renting which is valued at about 1.5m). I just don't have the time or the energy for a house. Also a house doesn't MAKE anything other than provide shelter. Psychologically it doesn't make much sense to me to "invest" in a single house, tied to one area, such a large % of my networth. My friends bought houses recently, and even the "flips" turned out to be fixer/uppers. The supply is so bad right now you can really get burned.
Once the supply improves - and really this means most of the government distortions disappear, I would reconsider. By government distortions i mean specifically 0) stimulus checks 1) extra unemployment (bonus monthly $, extra time, and expanding benefits to people that would not have otherwise been covered) 2) mortgage forbearance programs 3) student loan forbearance 4) super low rates. i agree at one point these distortions were necessary when we were all hunkered down and hospitals were being overrun, but we are far from that these days.
They did? I remember three teeny tiny payments. Certainly not enough to live on for a long time.
1 - unemployment boost 2 - stimulus payments 3 - extending unemployment to workers who would normally be ineligible (contractors etc) 4 - eviction moratorium 5 - mortgage forbearance programs 6 - student loans forbearance 7 - locally available , utilities payments pauses 8 - ppp grants
Be aware that when people say things like this they often do so to feel virtuous themselves like only they are so enlightened that only they even consider being friendly to non white people.
The idea that people in the Midwest (which has a population of over 65 million people similar to France and the UK) are only friendly to white people is pretty crazy.
I can't believe the backlash here - surely generalizing ALL OF MIDWEST to be racist is the wrong thing to do?
Eliminate H1B and expand green cards for skilled people who want to live here.