They can all move here to Florida and pretend for a week that they like it, we’ll definitely take their money LOL.
Readit Newsmlinhares commented on Tax the Rich. They Won't Leave New York rollingstone.com/politics... · Posted by u/colinprince
mlinhares commented on Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed fortune.com/2025/08/23/ne... · Posted by u/danielmorozoff
Okay that's not what ordinary people like GP's dad are envisioning. Normal people are envisioning either: "wow I can buy a Tesla and it can drive me around!!" or a macroview "wow in the future Elon Musk is going to make self-driving cars so good that nobody will have to drive!".
We are discussing "normal people thoughts", not market sentiment.
It’s the usual “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", as much as the fundamentals do not work he has captured the average investor and general narrative that something really huge would have to happen to take him down.
I really don’t see anything that will cut through the narrative now.
> While Meta has a non-binding promise to build more renewable energy, the Louisiana Legislature passed a new law that adds natural gas to the definition of green energy, allowing Zuckerberg and others to count Entergy’s gas turbines as “green.”
This means it isn't securities fraud when Meta tries to meet "climate commitments" due to the greenwashing of fossil gas generation by the state of Louisiana. Louisiana is a low regulation jurisdiction that doesn't care if most of the state ends up a Superfund site, so it is ideal to colocate data centers that are going to burn up a bunch of fossil gas there over their lifetime (when they are unwelcome elsewhere).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cancer_Alley
https://www.propublica.org/article/toxmap-poison-in-the-air
https://www.propublica.org/article/cancer-alley-louisiana-ep...
https://www.propublica.org/article/welcome-to-cancer-alley-w...
And people say blood sacrifices have ended in the modern world.
mlinhares commented on AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects wsj.com/economy/jobs/ai-e... · Posted by u/lucaspauker
Especially given how the gov stats for unemployment rate and CPI have been changed over the years.
Example, if you dig into who we technically consider unemployed in that number, you’ll laugh.
Let’s say after 6 months of emails and ghost listings you take a break, you’re now considered “not in the labor force” which is the same category as retirees and full-time students. So that “improves” the unemployment rate
Not a hot take, but I think we’ve been in a recession/massive slowdown for much longer than the gov data shows
Willing to bet hedge funds have their own calculations of these metrics they keep secret as a market edge
Odd Lots has done a lot of interviews with Fed members these past few days as they were in Jackson Hole and they all said that "now the data looks right" as they were talking to businesses everyone was saying they weren't hiring but the job numbers had remained high. One even said he'd expect to see even worse revisions in the coming months given the anecdotal data he's seeing in the wild.
So yeah, i'd say most of this AI stuff is bullshit, if it was really this good Sam Altman wouldn't be talking about building social networks.
mlinhares commented on AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects wsj.com/economy/jobs/ai-e... · Posted by u/lucaspauker
> Is it possible to stay better than AI? Maybe for some people. Not for the average person.
I know we're talking broadly across all industries but I can only speak to what I know and am able to observe directly.
My opinion of the average software developer with a few years experience is not very high. Yet now that we have non-coders shipping features written with LLMs, and we're starting to observe the fallout from that, I'm getting closer to saying than an entry level coder is far better than an LLM (depending on how we evaluate "better").
There are also a lot of hidden costs associated with LLMs. For example, I'm spending a lot more time reviewing PRs than I used to. And we're taking a lot more time doing rework than we were before.
We can't yet say that LLMs have caused an increase in regressions, since we've been racing towards a major new version release, and so people are rushing in general and that skews the numbers. Over time, however, we'll have data on rate of bugs introduced before the widespread company adoption of LLMs vs after, controlled for crunch times as well.
If the average software developer only spends an average of 20% of their time actually writing code, then even if an LLM can offer an optimistic 50% productivity increase, then we're only optimizing for 10% best case scenario.
I think there is a lot of marketing-hype-driven ideology around "AI" right now that is leading a lot of people to buy into some of the overstated claims. This ideology may have companies genuinely slowing down their hiring of entry-levels at the moment, since some people are saying that an LLM is like having an incompetent intern. The business thinks "If you need to babysit a junior and you need to babysit an LLM, then why pay for the junior?" And we still need better data to determine if, on average, what a company pays for a junior is truly more expensive than delegating the work to an LLM + taking on the maintenance and review overhead. We don't have the answers yet. My personal bias has me thinking that on average a junior will provide higher returns although not necessarily immediately. The benefit of a junior is that they learn from mistakes and can adapt more readily to specific business requirements.
This is not to say that LLMs aren't valuable. I think the trade-off for entry-levels is that I would have killed to have something like Cursor when I was a a pre-teen teaching myself to code in the 90s. When you want to build something complicated and don't even know where to start, and LLM can get you some scaffolding and show you a basic strategy that you can build on. Then you go fix bugs and poke around and break stuff.. it's a great learning tool. So I expect that, over time, the talent of entry-levels will probably increase. In the short term, we need to get through this AI bubble and stabilize. Companies will learn where LLMs save costs and where they can still benefit from less-experienced coders. It will just take a bit of time.
Wait but the job was to churn as many lines of code as possible, wasn’t it?
mlinhares commented on AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects wsj.com/economy/jobs/ai-e... · Posted by u/lucaspauker
How many people are just assuming the study is true or false based on what you already think is the case?
Better instead to use our collective brain power for something more productive. Such as digging into the various possible causal factors and understanding if the paper properly addresses and disentangles them.
Maybe, just maybe, the reason is that the economy is moving towards the dumps and nobody is hiring or firing, because they know the future is gloomy.
But it makes it much nicer to say its AI that's stealing jobs to create even more hype.
mlinhares commented on US retail giants raise prices due to tariffs english.elpais.com/econom... · Posted by u/geox
Wait, Lutnick said tariffs would lower the prices, this can't be real.
When did your country started killing regionalism and local dialects? then mid 19th century? Because before that, i guarantee you Common english was not the primary language in London. Nationalism is very recent, and mostly pushed for militaristic reasons. Having multiple languages present in your seat of power used to be a source of pride and a proof of power for kings and emperors, so the change has to be recent.
> This is really only a recent western dalliance too
Historically, it's the opposite, homogenous populations are a very recent thing.
Also:
> "What does it mean to be British?"
Doesn't mean much? There's Wales and Scotland right there, you go to Spain and find the catalonians, basque, gallegos. A country is very rarely a single thing, its a mix of multiple people's and trying to come up with a single storyline for it is a very modern thing.
People identify with the city and region they're most associated with, I'm Brazilian but first and foremost I'm northwestern, the culture, accent, food, customs and religion there is unlike other places in the country. I see no reason to find an answer to "what does it mean to be brazilian" because different people will have different answers for that but if I meet someone from my region we will quickly connect on our shared experiences.
Many are racist but the deeper reason to be skeptical is that the current/dominant model assumes everyone in the world is basically fungible and can seamlessly integrate into the west without any particular guidance.
That might have even been true decades ago when rates of influx were tiny, but now we live with a firehose under the assumption that there cannot be any hysteresis — we are a big planet, any new culture is a point mass. And that all these new populations get along (they don't).
We invaded Afghanistan and started nation building on the assumption that within every Afghan is a Western liberal trying to get out. If you haven't seen it, please watch the Adam Curtis doc "Bitter lake" to see how much of a disaster this project was. We don't understand their culture at all.
Those same people who planned that war brought about the current normal of historically flows of people every year. Some of them have explicitly said they wanted to do a cultural transformation project too but I'm prepared to say that was a relatively small group of extremists.
Most of the world is very, very, different to the things westerners are used to. We don't have clans, we don't marry inside our families, we don't grow up wanting to make our parents proud anywhere near as much as in non-western countries (etc, "WEIRD" culture as argued in the now-famous book).
Not all non-western countries are the same e.g. SEA famously quite compatible with our culture up to a point, but you'd clearly give a daughter very different travel advice if she was going to Morocco versus Inverness.
If nothing else, is it not a bit weird to go to quite a few large European cities and find roughly the same distribution of people serving your coffee or waiting at your table?
I genuinely wonder what the many Chinese tourists coming to London think when they go into a shop to buy some water or something and all the staff are new arrivals to Britain speaking (say) Hindi rather than English to eachother.
And that's not to say they couldn't integrate at some point but at the moment the "purpose of a system is what it does" revealed preference is that we don't want them to.
Wild to think that the country that built the largest empire in the world would have people speaking multiple languages in its most important city.
Also, this conservative thing of being bothered by people speaking a language they don’t understand amongst themselves shows the eternal entitlement they feel. Everyone’s actions must cater to me, I must understand and be able to participate in everything I want without having to do anything extra.
It’s like people visiting the countryside in Brazil and expecting to find English speaking restaurant servers everywhere.
And that's very apparent even in this article which leads with the logical fallacy of moral equivalence
". . . and America’s preeminent real estate fraudster who bankrupted six rigged businesses is all of a sudden concerned with supposed mortgage fraud"
BOTH are guilty, BOTH are crooked!
This directly leads to a lot of "the whole system is broken, may as well get mine"