I guess when your CEO has a highly publicised pivot to a position that’s the antithesis of your customers views it doesn’t help. What’s that saying — “Go Fash Lose Cash”?
Add to that spending large amounts of his own money to help elect people who promised to and then did remove the EV tax credit, which means that those potential customers who were not driven away for ideological reasons would find they had to spend 10-20% more for a Tesla than before.
Those people he worked hard to elect did other things to harm Tesla besides making the cars more expensive. Over the last few years about 30% of Tesla's profits were from selling emissions tax credits to car companies that make ICE cars. Those other companies needed the credits because not enough of the ICE cars met EPA emissions standards. But now those emissions standards are no longer enforced, and so there is no need for them to buy credits.
The people he worked to elect also promised, and have been implementing, policies that will make electricity more expensive in many areas. There were already several states where electricity was expensive enough and gasoline not too expensive so that a Prius there would actually cost less to operated in energy costs per mile than an EV. Rising electricity prices could make that true in more places. (And yes, I'm talking about home electricity prices. For people who do not have adequate home charging and rely on commercial charging a Prius beats an EV on energy costs in most states). That too is probably going to cost Tesla some sales.
I mean, also, they haven’t had a new car in about 7 years (unless you count the joke truck thing, but c’mon now), and outside the US the competition has really made them largely irrelevant.
While Musk being a loony is certainly making things worse for them, even without that you’d expect them to be in a bad place.
Politics aside, the fact that now a handful of companies offer competitive cars at similar pricepoints, while there has been a general slump in EV demand doesn't help either.
There has not, to be clear, been a slump in EV demand, unless you assume that the US is the only market (it is in fact the smallest of the big three, and the other two are growing).
I suspect the strategy was 'we've already saturated the liberals. If we can release a truck and I switch to the other side I can capture the other side of the market as well'.
End result is he has neither side and neither the trucks nor the sedans are selling well!
I don't think Musk or Tesla had a strategy in this regard, Musk was just being impulsive and didn't really think about his brand, I think he isn't really self aware even if he must be smart in some other regard (unless his success is an accident, which I doubt).
I do not understand the P/E at all. It feels to me like a screaming red flag. If I'd been in front of this, holding long, I would be walking to other investment now and only looking to buy when the inevitable corrections come. But I don't hold directly and nobody I know who does feels the way i do about the P/E so.. I just don't understand.
Can you think of any non tech business where a P/E like this was not a signal of corporate diseased thinking?
Bloom Energy is a growing company which is just shifting towards profitability and positive free cash flow and earnings. Those stocks are expected to have silly P/E ratios. They haven't had 2 years of declining sales.
I’d have agreed with you in 2024 but there’s enough of a difference in active support to be significant. Not many of those CEOs have direct personal involvement killing millions of people, for example, but DOGE appears to have managed that without really even understanding what they were cutting.
There is an enormous difference between holding unpleasant views in private and actively, publicly, working to dismantle the country and take away the rights of its citizens and celebrating it.
I used to ask the same questions, but then I've realized: this line of argument tries to justify non-action on known known because there are also known unknowns and maybe even unknown unknowns. Now what? Smoke a cigarette because we know that unknown carcinogens exist that are not included in cigarette smoke?
Yes, at least for the CEOs going out of their way to get into politics like Musk and Larry Ellison. The way Ellison is using Bari Weiss to censor 60 Minutes is evil.
I didn’t plan on examining Elon’s ideology. He shoved it in my face. If other CEOs want to to be coy with Nazi salutes and post the types of things he does on X then let me know. I’ll happily treat them the same way.
> I imagine many of their privately held beliefs are just as horrible but they’re not dumb enough to say them publicly.
Why would you support a company run by someone stupid enough to say their polarising beliefs publicly? It doesn't inspire confidence in their judgment. Even if you personally agree with their polarising beliefs, you have to question their decision making process in why they chose to deliberately make them public, damaging the company. If they're stupid like that, maybe they've made stupid decisions with their products (which in Elon's case, yes, he has, and not just at Tesla).
Ive owned a Tesla since 2018 and honestly besides my gripes with body damage repairs (specifically dealing with insurance) from 3 separate instances of people hitting me it's been a great car. I definitely wouldn't consider any future car that isn't an EV but I also wouldn't consider a Tesla at this point. My concern is that other car manufacturers would continue to signal that EVs have lost interest from buyers if Tesla went under and I believe that is far from the truth. EVs are very much a luxury item. The fact I haven't had to inconvenience myself even once in seven years going to gas station has been amazing. Electricity pricing is both stable and cheap where I live and so I don't have to even care about fluctuations in gas pricing. I don't have to waste my time getting oil changes either. Owning a traditional car is just a bunch of wasted time.
I have more than a few complaints of current EVs manufacturers outside of Tesla. Every manufacturer has been very slow to adopt NACS. I wouldn't consider a new car without that it and I will absolutely not accept an adapter solution. I don't trust legacy car manufacturers even manufactures like Mercedes that they will keep the car updated and instead use that as a way to push me to purchase a new car. One of the reasons that pushed me to Tesla back in 2018 was they kept their cars updated and provided new features over time. They also had a track record of not changing the looks of their cars that often which I very much prefer. An EV can last significantly longer than ICE vehicles and so you need the ability to not only support the cars for longer through software but also by doing new computer hardware drop in replacements. I want the ability to extend the life of my car not replace it. I have absolutely zero interest in lease deals which every manufacture and dealer push with EVs because I don't drive very far in the city so I keep cars for a long time with low miles. I fundamentally HATE the push from buyers who desire large batteries for range when they don't even use it which has resulted in many of the smaller cars to not be sold here in the US. This is also preventing desired cars from even being made. If Ford would have made the Maverick an EV instead of wasting their time on the F-150 Lightning it would have significantly cost them less to develop and their issue would have been keeping them in stock.
The EV market is absolutely frustrating. Tesla brought these vehicles mainstream and for the most part outside the Cybertruck they have decent products where they have shown willingness to support longterm. Everything else made them undesirable.
I own 2019 model 3. Car is falling apart which is why consumer reports Tesla in last place in reliability. Won’t fix things under warranty either, they claimed I hit a something when my front suspension failed which is a very common issue in my car. Also paid for FSD, but not getting upgraded to the new hardware like Musk promised so will never get true FSD. Worst car I ever bought.
It was mentioned on the Tesla earning's call in Q2 or Q3 2025 that HW3 FSD customers will likely be moved to a version of HW5 that accommodated the older camera sensors.
How often does it happen in Chevys or Toyotas? Getting trapped in a car after a crash is common enough that there’s a cutesy nickname for the machine used by rescuers to get people out.
It's not really that great of a car. I mean it's driving an iPad, basically. Also, they've been plagued with reliability issues eg limiting how much you can adjust your seat because they're so prone to breaking [1].
Also, the Cybertruck is an unmitigated disaster in practically every way.
> EVs are very much a luxury item
In the US, this is kinda true but largely due to trade barriers. Things would be very different if we could buy BYD cars.
Charging is part of the problem too combined with how much Americans drive. But Americans partly drive so much because there's practically zero robust public transit infrastructure that forces people to drive, we build houses really spread out and a common charging network isn't a state priority like it is in China.
> very slow to adopt NACS
So, Tesla's Supercharger network was the only moat Tesla had for their cars. Even now, I believe Tesla charges third-party users significantly more [2].
> An EV can last significantly longer than ICE vehicles
I see what you're saying but battery degradation is a serious problem over time, such that EV depreciation is super high.
Also, some ICE vehicles are super reliable and some of those are weirdly banned in the US. I'm thinking specifically of the Toyota Hilux. Japanese cars in general were banned (after lobbying from the auto industry) because of their extreme reliability and low price.
> I have absolutely zero interest in lease deals
Each to their own but IMHO leasing is the smartest way to currently "own" an EV, given the depreciation.
> It's not really that great of a car. I mean it's driving an iPad, basically. Also, they've been plagued with reliability issues eg limiting how much you can adjust your seat because they're so prone to breaking [1].
Do you own one? I've had one for 6 years and I've never had issues with it, it's the best car I've ever owned. I've driven lots of other EVs, and none are close.
> Things would be very different if we could buy BYD cars.
We've had BYDs and other EVs for many years in Australia, and EVs are still a luxury item.
> Each to their own but IMHO leasing is the smartest way to currently "own" an EV, given the depreciation.
I've never understood Americans and leasing. Aside from specific styles of novated/chattel leases (where there is a tax benefit), leasing a car seems to almost always be a worse deal.
I oil change once a year.
I fill in gas once every like 7-10 days, half the time someone pumps it for me. It takes five minutes, maybe. I don't need to fuss about range, chargers or connect my car as it were a phone when I'm home every day. I find EVs an inconvenience. There are many reasons why choose an EV, and I just might, but these are not.
Would you prefer if your phone required a trip to a dedicated refilling station once a week, even if it only took 5 minutes?
Because that's the kind of logic you're implying about your car – that it's more convenient driving somewhere once a week rather than just plugging it in at night before bed.
> I oil change once a year. I fill in gas once every like 7-10 days, half the time someone pumps it for me. It takes five minutes, maybe. I don't need to fuss about range, chargers or connect my car as it were a phone when I'm home every day. I find EVs an inconvenience.
I suspect I spend less time plugging in my car when I get home than you do filling up with petrol per annum. Having to stop at a service station is objectively less convenient than plugging in when you get home.
Congrats on only needing to do an oil change once per year. I need to do 3-4. I’ve done stuff to make it less annoying but I would still love to get an EV as my next car and not need to.
There’s also Rivian. My R1S is my favorite car I’ve ever owned and this is going to be their “Model 3 year” when the R2 comes out. There’s also Lucid and Zoox.
And the Chinese manufacturers, of course. If you haven’t been outside the US lately you don’t realize just how popular BYD is everywhere but here. I’m in Thailand at the moment and they are everywhere. Mexico too.
Im not a bot. I also don't believe I was praising Tesla. I won't buy another one even if I haven't had any issues with the one I currently have. My Model 3 has honestly been a great car for me. If it was any other manufacturer I would have absolutely bought another one. I will only consider an EV but I won't buy another Tesla. It's pretty unfortunate TBH.
They are considered radioactive by their primary target audience in the US, have been surpassed in various ways outside the US, seem to be focused on a few boondoggles internally rather than fixing what is broken in their core business, and their CEO has been distracted by other ventures.
I expect this decline to continue indefinitely. I also wonder when the stock price will reflect the company's past and projected results.
> I also wonder when the stock price will reflect the company's past and projected results.
This is the $1T question. What happens when Tesla finally gets valued as a car manufacturer, with side businesses in cheap but unreliable solar, and over-priced grid storage?
The self-driving car boondoggle has persisted for the better part of a decade, without a come-to-Jesus moment on the stock price. The pivot to robotics is clear fraud, yet retail stock investors are all to willing to keep the stock price high.
Musk has to lose a lot more reputation with the public before Tesla stock starts being valued based on the reality of Tesla.
At least that seems the current story. And I mean if it lives up to it's promises, it might. I surely would have a need for a robot servant. But I won't preorder as I a) don't trust it will work as promised b) if it actually works out, I still don't trust Elon enough to put a robot in my home that he controls.
> This is the $1T question. What happens when Tesla finally gets valued as a car manufacturer, with side businesses in cheap but unreliable solar, and over-priced grid storage?
They are the 14th largest car maker in the world by annual units sold, and almost in the top 10 by annual revenue from cars.
Surely that is good enough to maintain a market cap that is 50% higher than the combined market caps of the top 10 (Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai-Kia, Renault-Nissan, General Motors, Stellantis, Honda, Ford, BYD, and Suzuki)?
I would love to short it but have avoided doing so because I didn't feel like I could outlast the fanatics, which seems to have been a wise decision in hindsight.
I think their cars are more and more hostile to the driver, sort of like windows 11. Each car has fewer displays and controls and it makes it harder to be a good driver.
For example, model s had a dashboard. Model 3 comes alone without one, and crams all the status on the left side of a central screen. It had fewer stalks and cheapened less friendly steering wheel controls.
ok, so model S is more expensive and you get more stuff, right? But then the updated model s goes from 4 stalks to zero and gets a smaller central screen.
Obviously we're just dueling anecdotes here, but FWIW, I'm a US tech worker who bought a Tesla in 2022 and certainly never will again. I have four friends with Teslas in tech and all of them say the same thing: never again. Replacement cycles for cars are so long that this will take a while to fully show up in the data, but I don't see growth anywhere in their future, especially when BYD is eating their lunch in seemingly every non-US market.
To zoom in on how toxic the brand has become, look at the European market. Sales were down 71% in Sweden and 66% in France for 2025[1], despite ~35% growth in European EV sales. The only "bright spot" was Norway, but that's partly because EVs increased to 96% of sales there (vs ~25% in Europe.)
Tesla should have had a new car model by now. Something comparable to BYD's midrange cars.
Or a useful delivery van. Or a new roadster. Or something.
For some reason, most of the Cybertrucks seem to have disappeared. A year ago, they were common on Silicon Valley roads. Now I see more driverless Waymos mid-peninsula than Cybertrucks.
It's been raining lately; maybe people don't want to take them out.
As for the value being in self-driving, there's no moat there. Ford and Mercedes have SAE level 3 systems about as good as Tesla's. Several Chinese auto companies have systems. Toyota is partnering with Waymo. Level 3 is just another car option.
It's 2026. Where are the Musk-promised Robotaxis? Do they have anything, anywhere, in revenue service with no driver in it? In this area, there is a moat, and Waymo is behind it.
There are at least eighteen companies with demo humanoid robots good enough to have Youtube videos.
Again, Tesla has no moat. As far as I know, there are zero autonomous humanoid robots generating revenue. Autonomous human robots are going to be a thing, but probably about 5-10 years out.
And the door problem. There was no US regulation prohibiting a car door that can't be opened in an emergency because nobody was ever dumb enough to make one. Regulations are written in blood.
Consumer Reports: "On a newer Tesla Model Y, remove the mat from the bottom of the rear door pocket, press the red tab to remove an access door that reveals a mechanical release cable, and pull the cable."
Musk's politics and the fact that Cybertrucks didn't live up to any of its hype and turned into a heap of recalls didn't turn out to be the flex people thought it would be.
People who claim Ford and Mercedes have systems as good as Tesla haven't personally taken a currently shipping v14 FSD trip and then personally used Ford and Mercedes systems.
I see Cybertrucks many times a day in San Francisco and on the 101. I took a Robotaxi ride in SF last week. It was cheaper than Uber and Waymo but I am hoping they bring back the 2014 price wars of Uber/Lyft.
I think Musk's pay is $1/yr.
Readit News
Those people he worked hard to elect did other things to harm Tesla besides making the cars more expensive. Over the last few years about 30% of Tesla's profits were from selling emissions tax credits to car companies that make ICE cars. Those other companies needed the credits because not enough of the ICE cars met EPA emissions standards. But now those emissions standards are no longer enforced, and so there is no need for them to buy credits.
The people he worked to elect also promised, and have been implementing, policies that will make electricity more expensive in many areas. There were already several states where electricity was expensive enough and gasoline not too expensive so that a Prius there would actually cost less to operated in energy costs per mile than an EV. Rising electricity prices could make that true in more places. (And yes, I'm talking about home electricity prices. For people who do not have adequate home charging and rely on commercial charging a Prius beats an EV on energy costs in most states). That too is probably going to cost Tesla some sales.
While Musk being a loony is certainly making things worse for them, even without that you’d expect them to be in a bad place.
End result is he has neither side and neither the trucks nor the sedans are selling well!
When Howard Hughes started insisting that all his peas be the same size, no-one thought he was courting a market; he was just crazy.
Dead Comment
Dead Comment
Can you think of any non tech business where a P/E like this was not a signal of corporate diseased thinking?
PE is measuring the past, stock price is measuring the future.
I'm not saying TSLA PE makes sense, but if people expect earnings growth then in theory it could.
cult
I wonder what it’ll be next. Betting on ‘quantum’ something, which has the great benefit of being rather vague.
I could be wrong. I hold BE shares.
I imagine many of their privately held beliefs are just as horrible but they’re not dumb enough to say them publicly.
That's correct. And therefore I don't boycott their companies.
Publicly signalling that you support awful shit is more likely to make that world a reality than quiet private support.
What other CEOs are this level of pure garbage? I can't think of a single one. (And that's before we even bring up the people his policies have directly killed: https://www.propublica.org/article/kenya-trump-usaid-world-f...)
Why would you support a company run by someone stupid enough to say their polarising beliefs publicly? It doesn't inspire confidence in their judgment. Even if you personally agree with their polarising beliefs, you have to question their decision making process in why they chose to deliberately make them public, damaging the company. If they're stupid like that, maybe they've made stupid decisions with their products (which in Elon's case, yes, he has, and not just at Tesla).
I have more than a few complaints of current EVs manufacturers outside of Tesla. Every manufacturer has been very slow to adopt NACS. I wouldn't consider a new car without that it and I will absolutely not accept an adapter solution. I don't trust legacy car manufacturers even manufactures like Mercedes that they will keep the car updated and instead use that as a way to push me to purchase a new car. One of the reasons that pushed me to Tesla back in 2018 was they kept their cars updated and provided new features over time. They also had a track record of not changing the looks of their cars that often which I very much prefer. An EV can last significantly longer than ICE vehicles and so you need the ability to not only support the cars for longer through software but also by doing new computer hardware drop in replacements. I want the ability to extend the life of my car not replace it. I have absolutely zero interest in lease deals which every manufacture and dealer push with EVs because I don't drive very far in the city so I keep cars for a long time with low miles. I fundamentally HATE the push from buyers who desire large batteries for range when they don't even use it which has resulted in many of the smaller cars to not be sold here in the US. This is also preventing desired cars from even being made. If Ford would have made the Maverick an EV instead of wasting their time on the F-150 Lightning it would have significantly cost them less to develop and their issue would have been keeping them in stock.
The EV market is absolutely frustrating. Tesla brought these vehicles mainstream and for the most part outside the Cybertruck they have decent products where they have shown willingness to support longterm. Everything else made them undesirable.
your definition of "decent products" is different from mine.
15 People Have Died in Crashes Where Tesla Doors Wouldn’t Open [0, 1]
0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-12-22/tesla-doo...
1: https://archive.is/VpB1H
It's not really that great of a car. I mean it's driving an iPad, basically. Also, they've been plagued with reliability issues eg limiting how much you can adjust your seat because they're so prone to breaking [1].
Also, the Cybertruck is an unmitigated disaster in practically every way.
> EVs are very much a luxury item
In the US, this is kinda true but largely due to trade barriers. Things would be very different if we could buy BYD cars.
Charging is part of the problem too combined with how much Americans drive. But Americans partly drive so much because there's practically zero robust public transit infrastructure that forces people to drive, we build houses really spread out and a common charging network isn't a state priority like it is in China.
> very slow to adopt NACS
So, Tesla's Supercharger network was the only moat Tesla had for their cars. Even now, I believe Tesla charges third-party users significantly more [2].
> An EV can last significantly longer than ICE vehicles
I see what you're saying but battery degradation is a serious problem over time, such that EV depreciation is super high.
Also, some ICE vehicles are super reliable and some of those are weirdly banned in the US. I'm thinking specifically of the Toyota Hilux. Japanese cars in general were banned (after lobbying from the auto industry) because of their extreme reliability and low price.
> I have absolutely zero interest in lease deals
Each to their own but IMHO leasing is the smartest way to currently "own" an EV, given the depreciation.
[1]: https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-now-monitors-how-ofte...
[2]: https://insideevs.com/news/710822/tesla-supercharger-cost-fo...
Do you own one? I've had one for 6 years and I've never had issues with it, it's the best car I've ever owned. I've driven lots of other EVs, and none are close.
> Things would be very different if we could buy BYD cars.
We've had BYDs and other EVs for many years in Australia, and EVs are still a luxury item.
> Each to their own but IMHO leasing is the smartest way to currently "own" an EV, given the depreciation.
I've never understood Americans and leasing. Aside from specific styles of novated/chattel leases (where there is a tax benefit), leasing a car seems to almost always be a worse deal.
120 sec of usage in 300 sec is plenty. If they did 599 sec in 600 sec, you'll still complain because you are here to complain; you are not a user.
Car letting me know I'm stressing the motor is a good thing.
Because that's the kind of logic you're implying about your car – that it's more convenient driving somewhere once a week rather than just plugging it in at night before bed.
I suspect I spend less time plugging in my car when I get home than you do filling up with petrol per annum. Having to stop at a service station is objectively less convenient than plugging in when you get home.
Tesla, for all their problems, is the only manufacturer you can count on prioritizing and long term updating their EVs.
And the Chinese manufacturers, of course. If you haven’t been outside the US lately you don’t realize just how popular BYD is everywhere but here. I’m in Thailand at the moment and they are everywhere. Mexico too.
Is that a euphemism for having an aging lineup? Not releasing anything new -- ??? --> must be prioritizing (huh?) and long term updating old ones?
How does the above fit into your "bot" hypothesis?
I expect this decline to continue indefinitely. I also wonder when the stock price will reflect the company's past and projected results.
This is the $1T question. What happens when Tesla finally gets valued as a car manufacturer, with side businesses in cheap but unreliable solar, and over-priced grid storage?
The self-driving car boondoggle has persisted for the better part of a decade, without a come-to-Jesus moment on the stock price. The pivot to robotics is clear fraud, yet retail stock investors are all to willing to keep the stock price high.
Musk has to lose a lot more reputation with the public before Tesla stock starts being valued based on the reality of Tesla.
At least that seems the current story. And I mean if it lives up to it's promises, it might. I surely would have a need for a robot servant. But I won't preorder as I a) don't trust it will work as promised b) if it actually works out, I still don't trust Elon enough to put a robot in my home that he controls.
They are the 14th largest car maker in the world by annual units sold, and almost in the top 10 by annual revenue from cars.
Surely that is good enough to maintain a market cap that is 50% higher than the combined market caps of the top 10 (Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai-Kia, Renault-Nissan, General Motors, Stellantis, Honda, Ford, BYD, and Suzuki)?
I would love to short it but have avoided doing so because I didn't feel like I could outlast the fanatics, which seems to have been a wise decision in hindsight.
Deleted Comment
For example, model s had a dashboard. Model 3 comes alone without one, and crams all the status on the left side of a central screen. It had fewer stalks and cheapened less friendly steering wheel controls.
ok, so model S is more expensive and you get more stuff, right? But then the updated model s goes from 4 stalks to zero and gets a smaller central screen.
Sales to that demographic are approximately zero and will remain there until every shred of Elon is removed from the company's fabric.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2026/01/02/...
Here’s an interesting quote from Musk: “The ability to predict the future is the best measure of intelligence.”
Based on Musk’s own standard of intelligence, he is a grade A moron.
Tesla should have had a new car model by now. Something comparable to BYD's midrange cars. Or a useful delivery van. Or a new roadster. Or something.
For some reason, most of the Cybertrucks seem to have disappeared. A year ago, they were common on Silicon Valley roads. Now I see more driverless Waymos mid-peninsula than Cybertrucks. It's been raining lately; maybe people don't want to take them out.
As for the value being in self-driving, there's no moat there. Ford and Mercedes have SAE level 3 systems about as good as Tesla's. Several Chinese auto companies have systems. Toyota is partnering with Waymo. Level 3 is just another car option.
It's 2026. Where are the Musk-promised Robotaxis? Do they have anything, anywhere, in revenue service with no driver in it? In this area, there is a moat, and Waymo is behind it.
There are at least eighteen companies with demo humanoid robots good enough to have Youtube videos. Again, Tesla has no moat. As far as I know, there are zero autonomous humanoid robots generating revenue. Autonomous human robots are going to be a thing, but probably about 5-10 years out.
And the door problem. There was no US regulation prohibiting a car door that can't be opened in an emergency because nobody was ever dumb enough to make one. Regulations are written in blood.
Consumer Reports: "On a newer Tesla Model Y, remove the mat from the bottom of the rear door pocket, press the red tab to remove an access door that reveals a mechanical release cable, and pull the cable."
Musk is getting paid how much for this?
Maybe people no longer want to be seen in one.
Musk's politics and the fact that Cybertrucks didn't live up to any of its hype and turned into a heap of recalls didn't turn out to be the flex people thought it would be.