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bpt3 commented on Claude for Chrome   anthropic.com/news/claude... · Posted by u/davidbarker
ares623 · 6 hours ago
Some of us won’t. But a majority probably will.

Even more important, the kids of today won’t care. Their internet will be fully slopped.

And with outdoor places getting more and more rare/expensive, they’ll have no choice but to consume slop.

bpt3 · 6 hours ago
> And with outdoor places getting more and more rare/expensive, they’ll have no choice but to consume slop.

What does this mean? Cities and other places where real estate is expensive still have public parks, and outdoor places are not getting more expensive elsewhere.

They also have numerous other choices other than "consume whatever is on the internet" and "go outside".

I don't think anyone benefits from poorly automated content creation, but I'm not this resigned to its impact on society.

bpt3 commented on Margin debt surges to record high   advisorperspectives.com/d... · Posted by u/pera
feoren · a day ago
> the poor person in question should

So you are telling poor people how they should live their lives after all. The core point I made that set this whole thing off. It turns out this whole thing actually is an excuse to decide how poor people should live. Thank you for proving my point for me.

> So one guy (who wasn't an economist BTW) who died over 20 years ago and whose ideas have been long abandoned is your big example?

Are you kidding about being abandoned? Reaganomics has not been abandoned, it has been enshrined as the idol of American capitalism. Almost every element of the ongoing and ever-accelerating enrichening of the rich and the disenfranchisement of the disenfranchised can be traced to ideas put in place during the Reagan administration. And the guy who invents "supply side economics" and the economic policy of the United States for the next 50 decades is an economist, regardless of what his piece of paper says. There are plenty of Chairmen of the Fed that you could look at under a similar light, and they are mostly "official" economists.

bpt3 · 12 hours ago
> So you are telling poor people how they should live their lives after all. The core point I made that set this whole thing off. It turns out this whole thing actually is an excuse to decide how poor people should live. Thank you for proving my point for me.

I'm not telling anyone how they should live their lives. I'm explaining why the person in your example is making an objectively dumb decision, though it's one I think they should be allowed to make.

Your point only exists in your mind, where you are obsessed with "the rich" telling "the poor" what to do no matter what is actually being discussed.

> Are you kidding about being abandoned? Reaganomics has not been abandoned, it has been enshrined as the idol of American capitalism. Almost every element of the ongoing and ever-accelerating enrichening of the rich and the disenfranchisement of the disenfranchised can be traced to ideas put in place during the Reagan administration. And the guy who invents "supply side economics" and the economic policy of the United States for the next 50 decades is an economist, regardless of what his piece of paper says. There are plenty of Chairmen of the Fed that you could look at under a similar light, and they are mostly "official" economists.

I know it's cool in progressive circles to blame every problem in modern society on Reagan, but the MAGA crowd doesn't care about supply side economics so no one is advocating for it any longer.

And no, the guy was not an economist. He had no training as one nor ever acted as one in a professional capacity. He worked in finance and as an executive in industry and government.

bpt3 commented on Uncle Sam shouldn't own Intel stock   wsj.com/opinion/uncle-sam... · Posted by u/aspenmayer
LeafItAlone · a day ago
>What happens if the PRC annexes Taiwan without bloodshed?

Do you realistically see that happening? Why would the US allow that to happen when they are so reliant on it not?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States...

bpt3 · a day ago
I don't think it's likely to happen, but it's certainly an option I would prepare for if I were the US government.

As to why the US would allow it to happen, the PRC could take steps that would make the defense of Taiwan politically undesirable to the US (threatening biological warfare is one example that comes to mind).

bpt3 commented on Uncle Sam shouldn't own Intel stock   wsj.com/opinion/uncle-sam... · Posted by u/aspenmayer
chrsw · a day ago
I’d rather prepare for life with China in total control of Taiwan than try and defend Taiwan from China. I believe they will take Taiwan without bloodshed, anyway. Which is why it is critical to build up the US advanced manufacturing base. It will take a long time and cost a lot of money.
bpt3 · a day ago
I believe the US government agrees with you, which is why they are investing in domestic alternatives to TSMC (including encouraging TSMC to build a plant in the US).
bpt3 commented on The road that killed Legend Jenkins was working as designed   strongtowns.org/journal/2... · Posted by u/h14h
wonder_er · 4 days ago
i write for me.

I don't find most people in the USA to be worth taking seriously, either. Liiiike if someone thinks the primary purpose of police is something like "protecting and serving" vs. being deputized slave patrollers.

How could I take that person seriously?

If I don't think political authority is real, and 90% of the us population does think it is real, and votes, I'm already out of sync with all of those people.

And I've got at least one or two additional hot takes that could alienate another few percentage points.

race and gender are constructs of supremacy thinking, the US government commits 100x more acts of terrorism than the next most terroristic group, evangelicalism is a cult, all religion is self-and-other harming, monogamy is way over-rated, marriage is harmful to everyone...

honestly, I'd be concerned if it seemed like lots of people agreed with me, especially lots of people in America! One doesn't get a nation that did 400+ years of chattel slavery without most people being pro-slavery.

bpt3 · a day ago
> i write for me.

You sure use an awful lot of self-citations for someone who is only writing for themselves.

> I don't find most people in the USA to be worth taking seriously, either. Liiiike if someone thinks the primary purpose of police is something like "protecting and serving" vs. being deputized slave patrollers. How could I take that person seriously?

You realize you both can be wrong, correct? Because you absolutely are in most of the US, for starters.

> If I don't think political authority is real, and 90% of the us population does think it is real, and votes, I'm already out of sync with all of those people.

So you don't think political authority is real, yet you work with government authorities to enact the changes you want to see in your area?

I mean it makes sense to me to advocate for your preferred solutions to problems, but I think political authority is real (because it is, just look around you).

> And I've got at least one or two additional hot takes that could alienate another few percentage points.

Yes, it's very clear that pretty much everything you say is poorly thought out and researched and designed almost entirely to incite a strong reaction and attract attention. I agree with some of your claims and disagree with others, but there's no point in discussing any of them in depth with you.

What was your first claim again?

bpt3 commented on Margin debt surges to record high   advisorperspectives.com/d... · Posted by u/pera
feoren · 3 days ago
> That's not a luxury car

So an "old classic" (I was thinking a Mercedes) stops being a luxury car as soon as a poor person inherits it? Do you see how nebulous these categories are? How easy it is to just move the line whenever it suits your argument?

> Whether there is or isn't a class war is debatable, but the one you've concocted that is led by economists is certainly not happening.

I'll give you an economist who led the charge: Donald Regan, Ronald Reagan's secretary of the treasury and chief of staff. This was back in a time when people felt they needed to come up with a plausible-sounding excuse to strip poor people of their rights and keep them stuck in a cycle poverty. The banner was "Reaganomics", or "Trickle-Down Economics". You're so incredulous that the discipline of economics has anything to do with a class war that was largely started and still fought under the name "Trickle-Down Economics"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Regan

bpt3 · a day ago
> So an "old classic" (I was thinking a Mercedes) stops being a luxury car as soon as a poor person inherits it? Do you see how nebulous these categories are? How easy it is to just move the line whenever it suits your argument?

No, it stops being a luxury car when it's old and no longer luxurious. Luxury cars are very expensive to maintain, and the poor person in question should absolutely sell a historic luxury car and buy a Honda Civic (or similar) and use the remaining funds for other essentials.

> I'll give you an economist who led the charge: Donald Regan, Ronald Reagan's secretary of the treasury and chief of staff. This was back in a time when people felt they needed to come up with a plausible-sounding excuse to strip poor people of their rights and keep them stuck in a cycle poverty. The banner was "Reaganomics", or "Trickle-Down Economics". You're so incredulous that the discipline of economics has anything to do with a class war that was largely started and still fought under the name "Trickle-Down Economics"?

So one guy (who wasn't an economist BTW) who died over 20 years ago and whose ideas have been long abandoned is your big example? Come on.

Your entire premise is ridiculous and your hyperfocus on blaming the rich for every ill in the world completely negates any shred of a valid argument you might have.

bpt3 commented on Uncle Sam shouldn't own Intel stock   wsj.com/opinion/uncle-sam... · Posted by u/aspenmayer
LeafItAlone · 2 days ago
>but having basically all chip manufacturing in Asia is not a good idea if you think there'll be a war with China in the next few decades.

I see this a lot, but I’m not smart enough to understand it.

The US still has immense military power. Is the suggestion China/Asian is going to make the US so desperate for lack of chips that they use this power? Whether the manufacturing plants exist in Texas or Taiwan, the US military basically ensures they exist. And if that supply is cut off and that is forecasted to be the turning point of a war, then with a figurative push of a button, the US military makes sure that other countries also don’t have chip manufacturers (i.e. blows them up). Similarly, other countries can target plants on US soil if war breaks out anyways. I don’t see a war coming to that point or to the US losing access to chip manufacturing because of one. What don’t I understand from this angle?

That said, I do think it’s important for the US to have their own chip manufacturing on shore. Not as some protective measure over some combat war, but (1) to ensure less possible influence from foreign governments and decrease likelihood of possible backdoors or intentional sabotage and (2) to protect against other factors from shutting down the facilities, like natural disasters.

bpt3 · 2 days ago
What happens if the PRC annexes Taiwan without bloodshed?

The options available to the US are: attack the PRC to blow up the chip manufacturers and probably start WW3, or frantically try to replicate the capabilities of the Taiwanese fabs before the PRC decides to cut the US off.

In the meantime, the PRC will have immense leverage over the rest of the world, and there is no scenario where they don't extract as much as they can from that advantage.

bpt3 commented on Margin debt surges to record high   advisorperspectives.com/d... · Posted by u/pera
fergie · 5 days ago
Independant economist: one tenured by an independent university as opposed to being employed by a lobby group or think tank to promote a specific agenda.

When even Adam Smith supports the regulation of capital, this can be considered a fairly mainstream position.

bpt3 · 5 days ago
Summarizing Piketty's recommendations as "the regulation of capital" is absurd.

I can point to dozens upon dozens of independent economists (by your definition) that disagree with the use of confiscatory income tax rates and wealth taxes, so I don't know what your argument is here.

bpt3 commented on Margin debt surges to record high   advisorperspectives.com/d... · Posted by u/pera
feoren · 5 days ago
> Which of these is more essential for human life? ... So you do acknowledge the actual definition ...

And you don't acknowledge the actual definition, or you would have been asking about price elasticity, not what is or is not essential for human life. Plenty of people will give up Chinese takeout before they give up GPUs.

> Food, or a luxury car?

The luxury car, because it's grandma's old classic that Tom has kept in good enough shape to drive to his job, and he doesn't know how he'll get there when it finally breaks down, but he doesn't really have a penchant for fancy food and gets by with some cheap staples he prepares at home.

> Basic medicine, or a trip to a casino?

The trip to the casino, because Judy is getting evicted, and doesn't have any friends or family she can stay with, and won't survive the winter on the street, and hitting it big at Blackjack is unlikely, but desperate times call for desperate measures. And although she does sometimes take Tylenol for headaches, she's otherwise in good health and doesn't have any ongoing medicinal needs.

What are we doing? You're deciding what other people need for their lives?

> Rich people also don't behave logically, for the record.

Of course they do, because however they behave, they have an army of op-ed writers, sycophants, and apologists who spew out post-hoc justification for their behavior, and viola, their behavior turns out to have been rational all along.

Meanwhile, if the poor (and we are always talking about the poor when we are talking about "essential") stubbornly show an unwillingness to stop purchasing some good that some economist has decided is "non-essential", they're villainized and called irrational. Many of them even have refrigerators!

> It's almost like this class war you're describing is a figment of your imagination.

You choose now, in 2025, to deny that there's a class war? That's certainly a take.

bpt3 · 5 days ago
> And you don't acknowledge the actual definition, or you would have been asking about price elasticity, not what is or is not essential for human life. Plenty of people will give up Chinese takeout before they give up GPUs.

You just listed two examples of discretionary items (prepared food is generally not considered a consumer staple).

> The luxury car, because it's grandma's old classic that Tom has kept in good enough shape to drive to his job, and he doesn't know how he'll get there when it finally breaks down, but he doesn't really have a penchant for fancy food and gets by with some cheap staples he prepares at home.

You're 0 for 2. That's not a luxury car, unless Grandma had a love of rare exotics that he should probably sell to buy food and a reliable car.

> The trip to the casino, because Judy is getting evicted, and doesn't have any friends or family she can stay with, and won't survive the winter on the street, and hitting it big at Blackjack is unlikely, but desperate times call for desperate measures. And although she does sometimes take Tylenol for headaches, she's otherwise in good health and doesn't have any ongoing medicinal needs.

And now you're 0 for 3. Your earlier comments are making more sense.

> What are we doing? You're deciding what other people need for their lives?

Most humans understand what is essential to sustain human life and what is not. In fact, every functioning adult I've ever met does.

The implications of the fact that you don't can be left for you or other readers to decuce.

> Of course they do, because however they behave, they have an army of op-ed writers, sycophants, and apologists who spew out post-hoc justification for their behavior, and viola, their behavior turns out to have been rational all along.

> Meanwhile, if the poor (and we are always talking about the poor when we are talking about "essential") stubbornly show an unwillingness to stop purchasing some good that some economist has decided is "non-essential", they're villainized and called irrational. Many of them even have refrigerators!

Not remotely true.

> You choose now, in 2025, to deny that there's a class war? That's certainly a take.

Whether there is or isn't a class war is debatable, but the one you've concocted that is led by economists is certainly not happening.

bpt3 commented on Margin debt surges to record high   advisorperspectives.com/d... · Posted by u/pera
feoren · 5 days ago
> Or you could recognize that "essential" has a meaning in economic/financial terms

I do not recognize that. That is the point of my argument. A large portion of economics is rich people trying to justify their own greed as being moral. Classifying goods as "essential" vs. "non-essential" is a way of telling poor people what they're allowed to have, and always has been. A good goes from "non-essential" to "essential" only when rich people are worried they'll get guillotined if the poor don't have access to it.

I'm aware that it has a definition in terms of what people are able to stop purchasing when their income goes down, or how consumption relates to income levels in general, but the former is a problematic definition for many reasons, and the latter does not actually coincide particularly well with the categories of goods people list off when they think of "essential goods". Humans in real life just don't respond to changing conditions the same way the little econs in your head do; they way you've decided they "should".

Ever heard that humans don't "behave logically"? Yeah, that's economists with overly simplified models being annoyed that (mostly) poor people don't act the way that they've decided poor people should act. See the trend?

Ask four economists write out a list of "essential goods" and you'll get five different lists. That is not how definitions work. Ask four mathematicians whether something is a Commutative Ring or not and they'll all agree. That's a definition. "Essential" does not have a definition. Its meaning shifts depending on which group the author of the Wall Street Journal op-ed you're reading wants to villainize this time.

bpt3 · 5 days ago
> I do not recognize that. That is the point of my argument.

And my point is that you're going to continue to be frustrated and disappointed by refusing to use the same terminology for a topic as everyone else.

> A large portion of economics is rich people trying to justify their own greed as being moral.

Nope, but that view explains most of your reasoning.

> Classifying goods as "essential" vs. "non-essential" is a way of telling poor people what they're allowed to have, and always has been. A good goes from "non-essential" to "essential" only when rich people are worried they'll get guillotined if the poor don't have access to it.

Good lord. Which of these is more essential for human life? Food, or a luxury car? Basic medicine, or a trip to a casino? No one is stopping "poor people" from buying things from either category, but people clearly prioritize one over the other when funds are limited.

> I'm aware that it has a definition in terms of what people are able to stop purchasing when their income goes down, or how consumption relates to income levels in general, but the former is a problematic definition for many reasons, and the latter does not actually coincide particularly well with the categories of goods people list off when they think of "essential goods". Humans in real life just don't respond to changing conditions the same way the little econs in your head do; they way you've decided they "should".

So you do acknowledge the actual definition, you just refuse to accept it because you'd rather rage against the machine? Have fun with that.

> Ever heard that humans don't "behave logically"? Yeah, that's economists with overly simplified models being annoyed that (mostly) poor people don't act the way that they've decided poor people should act. See the trend?

Rich people also don't behave logically, for the record. It's almost like this class war you're describing is a figment of your imagination.

> Ask four economists write out a list of "essential goods" and you'll get five different lists. That is not how definitions work. Ask four mathematicians whether something is a Commutative Ring or not and they'll all agree. That's a definition. "Essential" does not have a definition. Its meaning shifts depending on which group the author of the Wall Street Journal op-ed you're reading wants to villainize this time.

Congratulations on your discovery that economics is not a hard science.

You already said that essential does have a widely agreed upon definition above, so the rest of this rant seems odd.

u/bpt3

KarmaCake day401August 1, 2019View Original