NYC no doubt has a lot of things going for it, I think being the financial center for the hegemony is the deciding factor. In my view survival of NYC probably has less to do with local crime than the outcome of future wars.

I concur. Some cities that have outlived their empires -- Rome, Istanbul (Constantinople), London, Baghdad, Alexandria, Cairo, Kabul, Mumbai.

Even NYC, Boston, Philly predate the US constitution.

This is a great point! I like the fact that the US is more decentralized and isn't dominated by a single large city. Germany is similar in this regard. I understand the appeal of NYC, especially to the young, but if other cities reap the rewards of increased inward migration, then I think it's a positive thing for the country overall. People too might realize they can have a better quality of life without the insane competition for resources.

I don't know about the US, but here in Canada the 2016 census was already showing meaningful decline in communities with >100,000 people, with communities of 1,000-29,999 people picking up most of the slack. COVID may have accelerated things, but signs of a 'counterubranization' movement were already presenting itself long before we ever heard of COVID.

It’s what happened in the 1960/70’s - lots of political changes made cities hospitable to crime and people left. As cities managed to become nice again, people moved back and tax revenues rose.

NYC needs another Bloomberg that’s willing to cleanup the streets and keep them nice and to stop pandering to the worst aspects of society. To put the fringe idea weirdos back on the fringe where they are better complaining about things than actually getting things done.

However, unlike the situation in the 1980's, there's no desire to address any of their problems because it undermines so many ideological premises the residents cling to. Coupled with the most morally narcissistic people on the face of the Earth, I don't see any turnaround.

The mechanisms necessary to avoid becoming Detroit are not there

There seems to be general feeling that stealing stuff and robing people are only bad if you get caught and even when you get caught the are little to no consequences. Forgetting the politicization of this for a while, this type of stuff is one of the worse cancers for society, even if "nobody says nothing", they know and think and they will vote with their feet. Detroit type situations are not really that far for some cities. I don't think this applies to NYC but I wouldn't bet my life on it.

I’m curious how much the Polish will put up a fight since they’ve had the Kennedy expressway separating them from the advance on the Northwest side; they’ve always been one of the largest ethnic groups, but if they’re anything like the state of the Ukrainians where there wasn’t enough young generations holding down the neighborhood I expect they’ll fall over in 10 - 15 years if things stay on course (that's from my boomer Ukranian landlord who grew up there and whose mother, whom didn't speak English and was the actual owner, lived above me in a two-story).

There are absolutely tradeoffs involved in living in a big city, maybe especially NYC. You might still choose to do so absent any specific work-related reason but no one can seriously suggest that taking a daily commute off the table couldn't seriously change the decision someone makes about where they live.

I've been interested in the idea for years, but I haven't seen any on Zillow that match the intersection of price <> accommodations, and I'm wondering if I'm looking in the wrong place.

The study mentions remote work being part of the reason for the shift; this also confounds "city-to-suburb" versus "city-to-Midwest" migration since it's harder to cross-check against employment statistics - again, without more detailed surveys.

[1] Demographer :)

If you click the drop down where it says "DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates" you can select which year's estimate you want to use (or use the Decennial Census). If you want a specific geographical area, click Geos.

Then you can get data at whatever level you'd like.

I'd been living in NJ for a few years before the pandemic and,just before the pandemic, had finally saved up enough for a down payment. We started looking summer of 2019, and were picky and not in a rush so were still looking when the pandemic hit. What this meant is I got to do a compare/contrast on my town's housing market. Right after everything shut down, there was no activity for a few weeks, but by spring things were restarting (with masking, or even virtual showings). What I saw is that inventory didn't increase -- maybe even decreased actually, as people weren't eager to move -- but demand became insane as people fled the city. Houses went for $50k or more over asking regularly -- the same houses we'd looked at the summer before and passed on because of shoddy construction or suspiciously strategically placed drywall in the basement.

I actually kept a spreadsheet to help me figure out how much we'd have to bid to have a chance without over bidding. We were finally successful in 2021, so got to take advantage of the super low rates, even though we ended up paying more up front.

Here's the summary stats I ended up with, sale dates 2020-06-25 through 2022-03-18

    Square Feet Listing Price Sale Price List vs Sale List vs sale % diff
  Mean 1,993.36 $568,002.74 $615,661.54 $52,770.80  9.67%
  Median 1,872.50 $550,000.00 $610,000.00 $51,900.00  9.60%. 
  Max 3,700.00 $1,399,900.00 $1,400,000.00 $225,000.00  37.28%
  Min 1,140.00 $300,000.00 $285,500.00 ($127,000.00) -19.54%
  Quartile 25% 1,607.25 $495,000.00 $527,750.00 $14,750.00  2.78%
  Quartile 50% 1,872.50 $550,000.00 $610,000.00 $51,900.00  9.60%
  Quartile 75% 2,300.00 $625,000.00 $690,499.50 $91,250.00  16.72%