I like this because it flies a little further than some of the other explanations for puzzling aspects of events. However, it seems that all these goals could've been achieved much cheaper, with perhaps a little more time investment?
COVID would have provided a much better excuse for isolationism without sending troops anywhere. I think Russian troops in Ukraine has to be read as "Russia's rulers want to control more of that territory."
The apparent ineffectiveness may be an argument that the route to world peace is bureaucratic sclerosis and the inevitable realization of the SNAFU principle.
> it seems that all these goals could've been achieved much cheaper, with perhaps a little more time investment?
This is a massive understatement. It makes absolutely no sense in any way. The fact that the author thought it necessary to add some big introduction about their "source" in an attempt to add credibility in what is just some fantasy by someone who really doesn't like the idea of CBDCs is highly suspicious.
Barely into it and I find this nugget "His expensive weaponry is being held back" the SU-34's being shot down would disagree, and the tens of million dollar MRLSs being towed by farmers as well...
Yes Ka-52, SU-30U, Pantsir-S1, S400 (which he has like just few units produced). All of this is best possible EQ russina army has. T-80UM2 is the most modern in operation Putler has. Don't even start the talk about T-14 armata that breaks even during parade, weights 60+ tones and is made in less than 20 units entirely.
It also says Kyiv hasn't been bombed (it has, including civilian areas), that Russia hasn't used its expensive equipment (they've fired at least 600 cruise missiles at Ukraine as well as the SU-34s you mentioned, and the top-line air defense equipment we've also seen captured). Most damningly, it doesn't even mention Putin's own given revanchist explanation for the invasion, which is indeed consistent with his historic rhetoric about the region and with everything we publicly know about his thinking on Russia's position as a so-called "Great Power". Putin is also notoriously averse to technology, so it makes even less sense that he'd plan all this in order to introduce a fintech transformation that solidifies his power (which was already solid before the invasion, which has in fact lead to the largest domestic protests in Russia in decades).
It's a novelty take, rather than a serious one IMO.
Also the part about how Russia's just burning through less valuable conscripts is absolutely untrue. Very much the opposite actually. Conscripts are being held back, apparently because while families hate when their sons, brothers, fathers get killed, families REALLY hate it when said person was forced into the military
Vitaly Gerasimov was the Chief of Staff of an army (41st Combined Arms), rather than the Army. The similarly-named Valery Gerasimov is the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
Chief of Staff of the 41st Army is not the same thing as Chief of Staff of the Army; the position is more equivalent to corps-level staff position in the US Army.
No, it isn't acceptable. This is a major world event that all observers find puzzling to say the least. Any analysis is worth considering. Even if it's wrong, it could put two pieces together.
Izabella Kaminska... I always had a laugh about her features at FT I am glad she is doing the same shit posting at her own outlet. I am still not sure if she tries to do satire or if she is serious but you have to give it to her she is entertaining.
Izabella didn't write it - the top line mentions it is a guest post.
> IK – I’ve received a guest submission from an informed source that I can vouch for (to some degree). The author wishes to remain anonymous but what I can tell you is that he runs a global technology company from the UK and has close family and assets in both Russia and in China.
To the conspiratorial mind-set the world is orchestrated. Nothing happens by chance or due to the chaotic nature of life. All is planned and controlled. Putin is orchestrating everything, starting a war just to have sanctions enacted to do what he is not unilaterally able to do,) toward the end goal (like 3D chess moves,) of establishing a CBDC and isolating Russia from the west completely. (Or making a political axis of Russia / China and buffer states.)
Or not.
Putting the article aside for a bit: as a person with phantom nostalgia for cypherpunk, I'm concerned about the prospect of the CBDC—but I don't understand how corruption is supposed to work with that. One thing that Western commentators don't seem to fully realize is that currently the police and the agencies are given (relative) freedom to pillage the businesses, the population and the budget—and that's how they're kept loyal. The government is literally mafia. If transactions are all recorded, how is that gonna work?
A CBDC could easily impose an actually-working tax system and the budget. But I don't see how it would implement the system where the neighborhood cops take your money and split it among themselves. Even shell companies wouldn't help, since in the end money moves to individuals. The whole thing is worse for the cops than for the citizens.
The cops do actually benefit from the isolation in that they can stop pretending that they respect the ‘law’, which they for some reason vaguely kept up until recently—at least on paper. But I don't think that they want instead to have strict ‘law’ and checks among themselves.
Seems to me it could work just the way it does now: turn a blind eye to anyone on the "approved" list. Cops being on the take would be fine as long as they are doing favors for higher-ups. If they stop doing favors for higher-ups or start criticizing, bingo: no more on-the-take transactions for you.
Just because a system records citizens' transactions doesn't mean it has to record everyone's transactions, right?
Readit News
COVID would have provided a much better excuse for isolationism without sending troops anywhere. I think Russian troops in Ukraine has to be read as "Russia's rulers want to control more of that territory."
The apparent ineffectiveness may be an argument that the route to world peace is bureaucratic sclerosis and the inevitable realization of the SNAFU principle.
This is a massive understatement. It makes absolutely no sense in any way. The fact that the author thought it necessary to add some big introduction about their "source" in an attempt to add credibility in what is just some fantasy by someone who really doesn't like the idea of CBDCs is highly suspicious.
It's a novelty take, rather than a serious one IMO.
This is simply not true. We have solid evidence of attempted VDV airdrops and the VDV is an elite part of the army.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/vitaly-gerasim...
Vitaly Gerasimov was the Chief of Staff of an army (41st Combined Arms), rather than the Army. The similarly-named Valery Gerasimov is the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
Anyone is expendable when you're a dictator.
Some articles are just way too wrong on a fundamental level that whatever it is they want to say is useless IMO / it's just noise.
Respectfully disagree.
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https:/...
> IK – I’ve received a guest submission from an informed source that I can vouch for (to some degree). The author wishes to remain anonymous but what I can tell you is that he runs a global technology company from the UK and has close family and assets in both Russia and in China.
Yeah, no. Nobody else would think of slipping in gosbankification. This is Izabella trolling everyone.
A CBDC could easily impose an actually-working tax system and the budget. But I don't see how it would implement the system where the neighborhood cops take your money and split it among themselves. Even shell companies wouldn't help, since in the end money moves to individuals. The whole thing is worse for the cops than for the citizens.
The cops do actually benefit from the isolation in that they can stop pretending that they respect the ‘law’, which they for some reason vaguely kept up until recently—at least on paper. But I don't think that they want instead to have strict ‘law’ and checks among themselves.
Just because a system records citizens' transactions doesn't mean it has to record everyone's transactions, right?