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zorm commented on Own a weather station? We want your data   weather.gov/iln/cwop... · Posted by u/dylan604
counters · a year ago
> NOAA/NWS, for example, is extremely underfunded so if they had to privilege to buy it they probably couldn't come to an agreement to buy it. As a result, they can't use that data to improve the accuracy of alerts/warnings/forcasts, the same exact tools that the big weather companies make all their money from. It's a shit cycle and totally unfair IMO.

Huh? This is kind of an odd take for a few reasons. For starters, NOAA isn't "extremely underfunded"; with the possible exception of the current budgeting cycle, NOAA generally does pretty well and has strong bipartisan support. It could always use more money, but I wouldn't call it "underfunded.

The reason NOAA doesn't buy more data is because most of the available data has limited value. Personal weather stations have substantial quality issues and add almost no value in areas where we already have high-quality surface observations. We thin out and throw away a ton of surface observations already during the data assimilation process to initialize our forecast models anyways - data from aloft is far more valuable and impactful from a forecast impact perspective.

For what it's worth, few if any companies use proprietary observations to improve their forecasts. It's an open secret that the vast majority of companies out there are just applying proprietary statistical modeling / bias correction on top of publicly available data. Only a handful of companies actually have novel observations, and there's limited evidence it makes a significant difference in the forecast. At best, it can result in the way that those statistical corrections are applied to existing forecasts and ensembles - you can count on one hand the number of companies that actually run a vertically-integrated stack including data assimilation of proprietary observations and end-to-end numerical modeling.

That isn't to say there isn't unique value in the observations. It's just that the industry flagrantly misleads about how they use them.

zorm · a year ago
Very few companies run the vertically-integrated stack because it is prohibitively expensive to do so with current NWP versus what you can sell it for with only marginal forecast improvements. I know several companies have tried this with integrating their own observation sources and ended up with worse performing forecasts. Oops.

I'm very interested to see how the ML modeling revolution changes this. The ability to perform global forecasts on a single GPU should make it cost competitive for more companies. I know several companies are already deriving their own weights for the forecasting component so that they can sell them. Google appears to be working on the next piece of the puzzle too with using ML for the data assimilation step, or skipping that altogether and using observations to go directly to forecasts.

zorm commented on Own a weather station? We want your data   weather.gov/iln/cwop... · Posted by u/dylan604
KennyBlanken · a year ago
Own a national weather service?

I want your API to not return 500 errors for hours at a time, multiple times a day...

Today it was down from 9AM to 2PM, and then from 9:30PM to 11PM.

Yesterday was even worse.

It isn't rate throttling because I only try to retrieve current conditions every 30 minutes.

Also, the load of the API might be a lot lower if it were possible to retrieve just the current measurements, but the response you get back for observations is insanely bloated with 12 hours back of each measurement, plus a bunch of station information that is heavily duplicative of information provided about the station.

Nothing about the station should be returned when you ask for the station's measurements should be returned except a link to API call for the station's information.

zorm · a year ago
Let's not forget the time they just turned it off for the winter holidays because they didn't want to be paged about it going down!
zorm commented on Own a weather station? We want your data   weather.gov/iln/cwop... · Posted by u/dylan604
mikeortman · a year ago
Hi, hobbyist here! This is a huge area where government meteorologists and "Big Weather" differ and you can help close that gap!

For context:

The governments of the world provides these big weather companies (weather.com (cough IBM), Accuweather (cough IBM cough), etc) a metric shit ton of their data completely for free (by law) including data transfer. These are things like radar, satellite, ground station data, forecasts, composite models, etc. These companies profit substantially on it, as in billions of dollars. You as citizens also can get this data completely for free as well! MADIS is a system the government is working on to make that data access easier by bringing together many of these systems together and removing the bureaucratic redundancy and abstracting out the aging infrastructure. This is literally terabytes of data per day you can grab with almost no questions asked. That data is then processed privately and resold and repackaged to the end user, and you probably interact with this privatized data the most.

The frustration I have much of the additional "value" these weather data brokers provide is by linking up with each other with data contracts. These private companies have a much much higher detail on the ground than the government by being able to partner with companies that make common internet-connected personal radar stations and reselling that data to each other. The government doesn't have that privilege to buy limitless data. NOAA/NWS, for example, is extremely underfunded so if they had to privilege to buy it they probably couldn't come to an agreement to buy it. As a result, they can't use that data to improve the accuracy of alerts/warnings/forcasts, the same exact tools that the big weather companies make all their money from. It's a shit cycle and totally unfair IMO.

So please contribute if you can!!

Sidebar: I'm a founder of a self-bootstrapped startup to build a better weather data broker that doesn't cost an arm and a leg. If that's something you are passionate about solving, feel free to reach out :)

zorm · a year ago
Since the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Congress is requiring NOAA to start acquiring data via commercial partnerships.

NOAA has already made some contracts with Spire [1] and Saildrone [2]. I am sure there are more but these are the ones most familiar to me.

Your weather data broker startup sounds very interesting!

[1]: https://spire.com/press-release/spire-global-awarded-nationa... [2]: https://research.noaa.gov/2022/08/03/noaa-and-saildrone-team...

zorm commented on Own a weather station? We want your data   weather.gov/iln/cwop... · Posted by u/dylan604
andy_ppp · a year ago
I would like to see historical high and low data for every day and location on Earth for the past 100 years. Does anyone have a dataset containing this information?
zorm · a year ago
ERA5 [1] will get to back to 1940. So not exactly 100 years but darn close.

[1] https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-...

zorm commented on Show HN: XRain – Explore rainfall statistics around the world   xrain.info/data/... · Posted by u/cameronoliver
zorm · 2 years ago
You buried a lot of great analysis in your white paper that is hard to find! The comparison to NOAA Atlas 14 really shows what to expect with this dataset and how to better use it.

My guess is that potential customers who know how to use this data with their flood model also know how to derive this data from the sources. You may need to compute inundation maps for X year return periods in order to reach customers who need this information but don't know how to use flood models.

Really nice website and backend though! It's so fast even given the volume of data. Very impressive

zorm commented on Court outlaws German Weather Service's free weather app   dw.com/en/court-outlaws-g... · Posted by u/4ad
cryptoz · 5 years ago
Is NOAA allowed to develop US weather apps? I vaguely recall that Accuweather or others lobbied to prevent official US NWS weather apps from existing.
zorm · 5 years ago
There was guidance [1] back in 2011 that prohibited development of mobile applications. As far as I know the situation hasn't changed since then.

[1] http://www.nwseo.org/Four%20Winds/11_12_28_Sobien_Lubchenco_...

zorm commented on Smithsonian Releases 2.8M Images into Public Domain   smithsonianmag.com/smiths... · Posted by u/ChrisArchitect
toomuchtodo · 6 years ago
I asked for a data dump via email, waiting to hear back. Ripping it all out is going to cost someone a pretty penny since it's hosted in AWS, better to ask someone to fill and ship some SATA drives. Then off to the Internet Archive!
zorm · 6 years ago
I saw a companion AWS blog on this: https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/publicsector/smithsonian-3-mill...

Looks like its part of the public dataset program so you can probably just ask for the bucket name and get full free access to everything.

zorm commented on Earth on AWS – Open geospatial data   aws.amazon.com/earth/... · Posted by u/thecodeboy
maxerickson · 8 years ago
Not real time, but the Landsat, Sentinel-2, MODIS and GEOS data are all updated on a continuing basis.

GEOS are from geostationary satellites pointed at the US and are updated a couple times an hour:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/index.html

zorm · 8 years ago
GOES-16 imagery could be up to every 30 seconds over specific regions, every 5 minutes over CONUS, and every 15 minutes over entire disk now.
zorm commented on Earth on AWS – Open geospatial data   aws.amazon.com/earth/... · Posted by u/thecodeboy
zitterbewegung · 8 years ago
This makes me want to take this open source weather forecasting model and run it on AWS. http://planetwrf.com
zorm · 8 years ago
People are doing this already. See https://depts.washington.edu/learnit/techconnect/cloudday/wo... for some good info on this.
zorm commented on Earth on AWS – Open geospatial data   aws.amazon.com/earth/... · Posted by u/thecodeboy
Moocat87 · 8 years ago
I'd like to see the National Snow and Ice Data Center's data (soil moisture, sea ice cover/concentration, snow cover [looks like MODIS is already available], permafrost, glacier outlines) on AWS.

I know there are people there that want to see it happen, but it's a matter of cost. What incentives/programs does Earth on AWS offer to assist stewards of public data to make it available on AWS?

Additionally, I think some of this data is normally behind URS/Earthdata Login, what did the politics of making the data available on AWS without URS look like?

zorm · 8 years ago
NOAA is working on making this happen through the big data project: http://www.noaa.gov/big-data-project

On the NOAA side, there tend not to be loginwalls so that hasn't been much of a concern.

I work with one of the partners on this project, so if you have specific datasets or use case ideas feel free to drop me an email at zflamig uchicago.edu.

u/zorm

KarmaCake day37December 30, 2016View Original