counters (u/counters)

counters commented on Weather Radar APIs in 2025: A Founder's Complete Market Overview rainviewer.com/blog/weath... · Posted by u/sea-gold

furyg3 · 6 days ago

On the app side, what's the best (global) app for rain forecasting over the next few hours (paid or not)?

Here in the Netherlands everyone uses "buienradar" which is limited to the Netherlands, has very bad privacy, and is also not super great at predicting rainfall.

counters · 6 days ago

It depends where you are in the world. The general solution involve an app that provides two types of forecast products: (1) a short-range, high-resolution numerical weather forecast over your country / domain of interest, refreshed rapidly (about an hour or so) and providing forecasts out to about 24 hours; and (2) a radar-based nowcast which extrapolates very short-term (~2 hours out) forecasts solely for rain.

The limitations straightforward. For (1), very few countries have access to such a forecast system outside of the US and continental Europe, and virtually no private company runs comparable systems (at least in the B2C space). For (2), very few countries have high-quality doppler radar networks and make the output available for these applications.

There really isn't a one-size-fits-all solution to this problem, despite what the umpteen-gazillion weather apps on the Play Store or Apple Store will try to sell you.

counters commented on Weather Model based on ADS-B obrhubr.org/adsb-weather-... · Posted by u/surprisetalk

dceddia · 23 days ago

This seems like a very useful weather product to supply to pilots. I wonder if anyone is already doing this? I know for instance Sirius XM weather has winds aloft info, but it’s not all that accurate in my (albeit limited) experience. I think that’s based on forecasts vs real time data though.

counters · 22 days ago

Yes, several companies offer sophisticated aviation forecast products, which employ both modeling and observational data to capture 3D areas of turbulence, icing, etc. Similar systems are also run by NOAA and other agencies and their forecasts are disseminated for free, e.g. [1].

[1]: https://aviationweather.gov/wafs/

counters commented on Weather Model based on ADS-B obrhubr.org/adsb-weather-... · Posted by u/surprisetalk

NitpickLawyer · 22 days ago

A bit tangential, and speculative anecdote:

A few years ago, in the 2017-19 timeframe, android phones had the best "next few hours" weather prediction I've ever seen. It was way more accurate than wunderground, accuweather and all other web services. Sometime after 2019 it seems to have gone, and I wonder what happened.

Speculation: goog used the barometric sensors in many phones "near you" to increase the precision of their models, making "immediate timeframes" extremely precise.

No idea if this actually happened or it was confirmation bias on my part, would love for someone with knowledge to chime in. I also wonder why they stopped, if my speculation is correct. Data gathering stuff, perhaps?

counters · 22 days ago

> Speculation: goog used the barometric sensors in many phones "near you" to increase the precision of their models, making "immediate timeframes" extremely precise.

They didn't.

Smartphone pressure observations (SPO) have extremely limited use in real-world meteorology for a whole variety of reasons. First and foremost - to actually use them, you have to assimilate them into a numerical forecast model. Very few commercial organizations outside of specialty weather companies do this, and fewer still run their own assimilation systems. The most well-known claims about incorporating SPO data into an operational forecasting system come from The Weather Company, but there's limited information in the public domain about what they _actually_ do.

The problem is that we know there are big problems with SPO data. Cliff Mass had several PhD students in the late 2010's that looked at this in detail (e.g. [1] and [2] are good entrypoints to the body of literature this group produced). The best summary I can offer is that (1) SPO data requires on-device calibration and bias correction otherwise it's relatively unusable in downstream applications; and (2) even when you _do_ incorporate SPO data into high-resolution simulations, they have little to no impact on forecast skill or quality.

There has been some work recently that uses SPO data for post-hoc analysis of weather events (e.g. [3]; IIRC there is a nice Google Research blogpost about this too, but I can't find it immediately). But that's a very different application.

Google likely just worked with a vendor that had nowcasting capability (which was very in vogue due to the popularity of Dark Sky). But all those forecasts are literally just simple extrapolations of radar imagery, and are only useful for precipitation.

[1]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/37/5/WAF-D-2... [2]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/32/2/waf-d-1... [3]: https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/18/829/2025/

counters commented on East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to global warming nature.com/articles/s4324... · Posted by u/defrost

dr_dshiv · a month ago

… this points to the importance of studying the effects of deliberate atmospheric aerosol injections… I think calcium carbonate is very promising—but we need to start doing tests asap to learn the effects.

counters · a month ago

Entirely different forcing mechanism(s). The two most promising vectors are stratospheric injection and marine stratocumulus injection. Both approaches induce very different radiative and attendant circulation responses, and aren't relevant in the context of this work.

counters commented on Proposed NOAA Budget Kills Program Designed to Prevent Satellite Collisions skyandtelescope.org/astro... · Posted by u/bikenaga

jandrewrogers · a month ago

> The standards have historically been much higher, and we ought to strive for them to be higher still.

My take isn't cynical, it is what I've seen first hand. I've worked for the US government (and others) and NGOs off and on since Clinton was President. The standards were pretty mediocre when I first got involved and they've only become worse.

The standards were probably higher before the 1990s. All of these organizations have a few true believers in the mission but those are the old guard. They've slowly been replaced by the equivalent of DMV bureaucrats, even in the more science-y parts of the government. People interested in doing science have known those organizations are not where you go to do science since long before the current administration, which has been a long, vicious spiral.

counters · a month ago

Your experience doesn't jive with what myself and many others have observed at NOAA over multiple decades.

counters commented on Proposed NOAA Budget Kills Program Designed to Prevent Satellite Collisions skyandtelescope.org/astro... · Posted by u/bikenaga

jandrewrogers · a month ago

This isn't an explanation that can be offered, at least politically. It invites questions that governments in several developed countries have clearly decided they don't want as part of the public narrative influencing policy. This is the default choice when the real explanation is more complicated, obscure, or technical than will fit in a soundbite, which would be the case in the scenario I hypothesized.

Governments rarely give genuine explanations for their actions and rarely need to. Much easier to use a plausible soundbite related to the current thing. Most people aren't paying attention anyway.

counters · a month ago

> Governments rarely give genuine explanations for their actions and rarely need to.

This is an absurdly cynical take. It certainly doesn't jive with how NOAA has historically operated - which has necessitated as much transparency as possible, because that is the only way it can engender the trust with the public necessary to steward life and property.

The standards have historically been much higher, and we ought to strive for them to be higher still.

counters commented on Proposed NOAA Budget Kills Program Designed to Prevent Satellite Collisions skyandtelescope.org/astro... · Posted by u/bikenaga

jandrewrogers · a month ago

I've worked as a related subject matter expert in a few countries. I can think of a possible reasonable justification for this.

In recent years, the operating environment in orbital space has changed rapidly, and it isn't just the number of objects. These changes are outside the design assumptions of traditional orbital traffic systems, degrading their effectiveness. In response to this reality, governments with significant space assets have been investing in orbital traffic systems that are capable of dealing with the modern environment. However, these rely heavily on classified technology and capability to address the limitations of the older systems.

An argument could be made that it no longer makes sense to fund a public system that is descending into obsolescence due to lack of capability and which can't be meaningfully fixed because that would require exposing classified technical capabilities that no one is willing to expose. In this scenario, the private sector is acting as an offramp from a system that had no future technically.

Space has turned into an interesting place, in the curse sense. It isn't as simple as it used to be.

counters · a month ago

Sure. Great.

But that explanation isn't being offered by the powers-that-be. So there's no point trying to rationalize it post-hoc.

There's no evidence that this is anything more than yet another round of ideologically-fueled maladministration.

counters commented on Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades' theguardian.com/us-news/2... · Posted by u/trauco

TimorousBestie · 2 months ago

> At some point, the consequences of actions are felt.

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” is a truism from before the Trump era, but it still rings true.

That the administration might eventually realize that one of their policies is hurting small business owners, well, that’s cold comfort to someone whose business is struggling or failing now due to unpredictable tariff rates.

counters · 2 months ago

It's not a question of "the market." Weather stories very strongly breakthrough in our current media environment. More importantly, weather forecasting and government services related to them enjoy deep and durable bi-partisan support.

It just so happens that the communities most likely to be adversely and quickly impacted by the loss of these data are deep Republican bastions in the South / Gulf Coast.

counters commented on Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades' theguardian.com/us-news/2... · Posted by u/trauco

bena · 2 months ago

That day being essentially yesterday.

Since Katrina, the next 10 costliest hurricanes are all after.

We don't dwell on the Ikes, Idas, and Helenes because they often happen to smaller communities and they've become common enough that we've gotten a little fatigued.

counters · 2 months ago

Well put.

counters commented on Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades' theguardian.com/us-news/2... · Posted by u/trauco

deadbabe · 2 months ago

There won’t be another Andrew because the building codes were changed so that all new construction must withstand category 5 storm force, which when Andrew came around was not a requirement. Over time, there is a natural selection that occurs where destroyed buildings are replaced with stronger buildings with stricter codes.

counters · 2 months ago

> There won’t be another Andrew because the building codes were changed so that all new construction must withstand category 5 storm force

I sincerely hope you're right, but there is plenty of evidence suggesting that this will not be the case, owing to a multitude of factors:

- not all housing stock is <30 years old and has been properly retrofitted to meet state specs

- the climates around the Gulf, which tend to be more humid, can lead to premature degradation of things like strengthened anchor bolts and roof attachments

- there continue to be immense factors related to cost and time-to-build which provide significant negative pressure towards cutting corners and minimum-compliance which may mitigate some of the attendant benefits of strengthened building codes

An event like Andrew _is the selection event_ that you're referring to.