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wnissen commented on Is Chain-of-Thought Reasoning of LLMs a Mirage? A Data Distribution Lens   arstechnica.com/ai/2025/0... · Posted by u/blueridge
syllogism · 13 days ago
It's interesting that there's still such a market for this sort of take.

> In a recent pre-print paper, researchers from the University of Arizona summarize this existing work as "suggest[ing] that LLMs are not principled reasoners but rather sophisticated simulators of reasoning-like text."

What does this even mean? Let's veto the word "reasoning" here and reflect.

The LLM produces a series of outputs. Each output changes the likelihood of the next output. So it's transitioning in a very large state space.

Assume there exists some states that the activations could be in that would cause the correct output to be generated. Assume also that there is some possible path of text connecting the original input to such a success state.

The reinforcement learning objective reinforces pathways that were successful during training. If there's some intermediate calculation to do or 'inference' that could be drawn, writing out a new text that makes that explicit might be a useful step. The reinforcement learning objective is supposed to encourage the model to learn such patterns.

So what does "sophisticated simulators of reasoning-like text" even mean here? The mechanism that the model uses to transition towards the answer is to generate intermediate text. What's the complaint here?

It makes the same sort of sense to talk about the model "reasoning" as it does to talk about AlphaZero "valuing material" or "fighting for the center". These are shorthands for describing patterns of behaviour, but of course the model doesn't "value" anything in a strictly human way. The chess engine usually doesn't see a full line to victory, but in the games it's played, paths which transition through states with material advantage are often good -- although it depends on other factors.

So of course the chain-of-thought transition process is brittle, and it's brittle in ways that don't match human mistakes. What does it prove that there are counter-examples with irrelevant text interposed that cause the model to produce the wrong output? It shows nothing --- it's a probabilistic process. Of course some different inputs lead to different paths being taken, which may be less successful.

wnissen · 13 days ago
It's not clear what LLMs are good at, and there's great interest in finding out. This is made harder by the frenetic pace of development (GPT 2 came out in 2019). Not surprising at all that there's research into how LLMs fail and why.

Even for someone who kinda understands how the models are trained, it's surprising to me that they struggle when the symbols change. One thing computers are traditionally very good at is symbolic logic. Graph bijection. Stuff like that. So it's worrisome when they fail at it. Even in this research model which is much, much smaller than current or even older models.

wnissen commented on Nearly 3 out of 4 Oracle Java users say they've been audited in the past 3 years   theregister.com/2025/07/1... · Posted by u/rntn
hangonhn · a month ago
We switched completely to AWS Corretto and told our IT department to remove all Oracle/Sun Java and ban the downloads. Then promptly ignored the Oracle emails.

Haven't heard from them since.

wnissen · a month ago
It was the same thing for us with Qt Commercial licensing. We use only the LGPL version, dynamically link, don't modify the source, and give credit, so we're fully in compliance. To get support we chose to purchase commercial licenses for our small team of developers. Cue a regular series of calls about whether we were sure we were in compliance, etc. To add insult to injury they couldn't even navigate our purchasing process so it was a pain to pay them.

I'll take my chances in the open source world. It's a shame that the companies that created the software aren't getting paid, truly. But don't make it so obnoxious to reward you.

wnissen commented on Ask HN: Who Is the Best Paid Email Provider? Why?    · Posted by u/thesuperbigfrog
isntThatSth · a month ago
> I probably would have gone Proton but they don't support forwarding.

They do on their paid plans. https://proton.me/support/email-forwarding

wnissen · a month ago
Ooh, looks like they added that in late 2023. Man. In August 2023 I actually migrated all of my email to Proton and was ready to go when I realized they didn't support forwarding. Thanks for letting me know.
wnissen commented on Ask HN: Who Is the Best Paid Email Provider? Why?    · Posted by u/thesuperbigfrog
DANmode · a month ago
In your Inbox,

or whole mailbox?

wnissen · a month ago
Inbox. They claim that the inbox is special in IMAP and it's hard to have a lot of messages there. 150K messages in the whole mailbox, I think. 25 years of email.
wnissen commented on Ask HN: Who Is the Best Paid Email Provider? Why?    · Posted by u/thesuperbigfrog
wnissen · a month ago
I chose Migadu because they seem to be genuinely helpful and are very affordable. I probably would have gone Proton but they don't support forwarding.

The downside is that downloading messages is fairly slow when you have 10-20k messages in your inbox. And the webmail is fairly primitive.

I never tried Fastmail.

wnissen commented on I salvaged $6k of luxury items discarded by Duke students   indyweek.com/culture/duke... · Posted by u/drvladb
wnissen · 3 months ago
Apple's Airpods Max headphones appear to be the official uniform of University of California students. We've been visiting and I swear they outnumber normal headphones.
wnissen commented on Home washing machines fail to remove important pathogens from textiles   medicalxpress.com/news/20... · Posted by u/bookmtn
lallysingh · 4 months ago
I'll wager the ones that do the poorest job in removing pathogens are also the most power and water efficient. Trade-offs matter.
wnissen · 4 months ago
Since less water would increase the detergent concentration, I was wondering if the opposite was the case. My family's old washer filled up the entire tub with water, so any detergent (and any pathogen, to be fair) would be quite diluted.

Short cycle length certainly makes sense to be correlated with pathogens. The lousy LG "TurboWash" only takes 28 minutes to do a full load of laundry but certainly doesn't get very much clean in that time.

I have to admit it was surprising that textiles have been identified as the source of hospital acquired infections. You'd think that even if the laundering didn't eliminate pathogens, it would greatly reduce them and make any clusters more diffuse.

wnissen commented on The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)   rand.org/pubs/research_br... · Posted by u/walterbell
ty6853 · 5 months ago
Might just be regional. An insanely high proportion of my rural neighbors are people who did 20 years in the military and started receiving benefits around age 40 and were able to use those benefits to supplement a homestead. How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped? I'm not damning them for it, it's not like many in the military didn't work hard for that money, but it's incredibly difficult for a working class 40 year old these days to fuck off into a rural area and buy a homestead with rural salaries without something functioning as a substitute to that backing it up.

In any case in my rural homestead region there are mainly three classes

1) .gov pensioners 2) successful professionals 3) inherited property

The key to government pensions here I think is that they get benefits early enough in life that they are young enough to build and live a homestead life. At age 65+ you might be able to maintain an established property but buying something affordable (read: rough or vacant land) out and getting it up and running would be pretty rough for most at that age.

wnissen · 5 months ago
If I had to guess, it has more to do with the type of person who is willing to save diligently for decades. Government work (at least until the last few months) tended to be lower paying but steadier. The type of risk-averse person who takes a government job is also more likely to save over time, taking advantage of compounding. Just correlated, in other words.
wnissen commented on "Final Usonian Home" by Frank Lloyd Wright Completed in Ohio   dezeen.com/2025/03/20/fin... · Posted by u/rmason
wnissen · 5 months ago
I'm curious what, specifically, the foundation claims is contrary to the plans. It's not like Wright himself built the houses (or did the drawings, for that matter). There's always been a process of modification when the contractor gets onsite and builds something. When Wright was alive he (or his secretary) would review pictures of the the resulting home and award a glazed red tile with Wright's signature engraved. That was the official recognition that you had a Frank Lloyd Wright home. Perhaps with all the litigation (such as with the Jean-Michel Basquiat authentication committee) the foundation is scared to get involved.

I saw Riverrock over Christmas when it was 95% complete, and it does look really cool. Similar in a lot of ways, especially the living room, but quite a different floor plan. I hope the doors are a bit wider than the Louis Penfield house on the same site; even folks of normal width have to rotate sideways. Toilet in a narrow alcove, narrow cushions on the furniture, etc. Absolute commitment to design integrity, not always comfortable. Still a fascinating place to stay.

wnissen commented on The average college student today   hilariusbookbinder.substa... · Posted by u/Jyaif
RoyalHenOil · 5 months ago
This was my general experience as well. The very best quality education I ever received was in my 7th grade math class, followed closely by my 7th grade English class.

I did have some very excellent university classes (including ones that were so good that I audited them without receiving credit), but I also had a lot that were positively abysmal, taught by professors who were experiencing severe mental health issues (one who'd had a stroke and could no longer comprehend the material, another who was going through a mental break and stopped teaching us altogether, etc.) or extremely stressed grad students who were not fluent in English and spent class time trying to catch up with their PhD workload.

My best university-level education actually came after I graduated and got a job working in a lab at my university. During that time, I worked closely with the professor and grad students, and it was such an amazing learning opportunity that I will never forget for the rest of my life — sadly cut short by the 2008 financial crisis.

wnissen · 5 months ago
If you look at how most professors and adjuncts are rewarded and paid, it makes sense. You can't get quality instruction from a adjunct who is only a half-step away from sleeping in their car, especially when they know they might be gone mid-semester due to a budget cut. Even the full professors are trying to bring in enough grants, oversee enough RAs and TAs to do the work for the grants, get some of their own research done, and barely have time to teach. Teachers in high school have a high teaching load relative to colleges and universities, but they are doing a job and generally are paid at least middle class wages.

u/wnissen

KarmaCake day1271May 2, 2013View Original