> Wait, do they not?
Why should they? It's not obvious at all that smoking causes higher costs; a smoker who gets lung cancer is a smoker who never needs the medical care we give to the elderly.
Now maybe that's just folk wisdom that isn't really true, but it sounds plausible to me. And if we reason by analogy a little, it's not too far off what my surgeon told me when I tore my rotator cuff. I fell and came down on my elbow, and he explained that the energy from the fall pushed my humerus up into my shoulder, and pinched my rotator cuff between two bone heads, which is what caused the tear.
So yeah, not much padding can do about stuff like that I guess.
But no one is going to bring it to market because it costs millions and millions to synthesize, get through PK, ADMET, mouse, rat and dog tox, clinicals, etc. And the FDA won't approve marginal drugs, they need to be significantly better than the SoC (with some exceptions).
Point is, coming up with new ideas is cheap, easy, and doesn't need help. Synthesizing and testing is expensive and difficult.
Choosing a hypothesis to test is actually a hard problem, and one that a lot of humans do poorly, with significant impact on their subsequent career. From what I have seen as an outsider to academia, many of the people who choose good hypotheses for their dissertation describe it as having been lucky.
On the contrary - their advantage. They know it and they can make outlandish claims that no one will disprove
All he showed was you can an existing thing running with 20% of staff.