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pictureofabear commented on What if there was no spacetime?   sorhed.substack.com/p/wha... · Posted by u/atemerev
pictureofabear · 2 months ago
Can this model of physics predict physical events? Show me an example.
pictureofabear commented on Possibly a Serious Possibility   kucharski.substack.com/p/... · Posted by u/samclemens
tempestn · 4 months ago
Interesting. Two things that jumped out to me were 1) why do the regions of the standardization line not overlap or at least meet? And 2) What's up with the small but clear minority of people who took all the 'unlikely' phrasings to mean somewhere in the realm of 90 to 100%? My guess would be they're misreading the question and that is their estimate of unlikelihood?
pictureofabear · 4 months ago
Because many people cannot or will not accept ambiguity. Charitably, I suppose this comes from a desire to logically deduce risk by multiply the severity of the consequences by the chance that something will happen. Uncharitably, it gives decisionmakers a scapegoat should they need one.
pictureofabear commented on We See Colors Differently   davidmathlogic.com/colorb... · Posted by u/ibobev
pictureofabear · 8 months ago
When I was a kid I noticed that if I laid on my side for a bit, the colors in one eye would be significantly red shifted.

I also noticed that closing your eyes for a while on a perfectly clear day, you could notice the blue tint on everything outside.

You also lose color vision when oxygen deprived (hypoxia). As oxygen returns, it returns beginning in the center of your fovia and expands outward like a jagged, slightly asymmetric ripple, color returning with it.

pictureofabear commented on Why is printer ink so expensive?   digitalrightsbytes.org/to... · Posted by u/throw7
wjnc · 9 months ago
Wait you are missing an instrumental point.

The “razor and blades” pricing is (as the market demonstrates) a dominant strategy. The other pricing strategy (cost-plus) is preferable for the customers printing a lot, not for customers who print little. Then add some customer myopia: I need a cheap printer, where cheap is initial out of pocket, not total cost of ownership. And there you have it: all suppliers ‘must’ follow the dominant pricing strategy because the myopic customer demands it. The twice as expensive printer up front just won’t get store space.

Brother might be (or, was?) somewhat of an outlier for the informed consumer. But who buys a Brother right? HP and Canon dominate the market.

General point is that individual suppliers in a multi supplier market have to take the dominant pricing strategy as a given, or differentiate along other axis.

pictureofabear · 9 months ago
"who buys a brother" eyes shift left
pictureofabear commented on FTC takes action against Gravy Analytics, Venntel for selling location data   ftc.gov/news-events/news/... · Posted by u/gnabgib
janalsncm · 9 months ago
A really good book on this topic is Byron Tau’s Means of Control. His contention is that this surveillance data has made NSA warrantless wiretaps old news. Cops don’t need to do the spying themselves, they can simply buy the info.

I am of the opinion that at this point, Americans only believe we are less surveilled than people elsewhere. It’s not visible so people forget about it. Yet it is so deeply embedded into the government that it will never be removed.

pictureofabear · 9 months ago
pictureofabear commented on Following Wyoming Example, Feds Limit Foreign Crypto Mines Near Military Bases   cowboystatedaily.com/2024... · Posted by u/LinuxBender
gpm · 10 months ago
This appears to be the press release the article is based around: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2708

Which appears to have absolutely nothing to do with crypto mines, and everything to do with controlling what foreign people own real-estate near military installations. The only link to crypto currency is the same rule was once used to remove a Chinese company that bought land close to an air force base, and happened to be using that land (at least ostensibly) for crypto mining.

This appears to be the executive order that removed that Chinese company: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-action...

To the extent that the order relates to crypto currency, it appears to be that the company was bringing in non-standard electronic equipment built in China (unsurprising for a crypto mining company), and the US wasn't confident in their abilities to set up a program to monitor it and ensure that the equipment only did what it said and wasn't actually (also) surveillance equipment.

Strange paragraphs like

> Cryptocurrency is a computer intensive process, running trillions of formulas every second, and generally requiring the use of supercomputers. Having one next to a military base that's owned by an adversary is problematic.

appear to be entirely an invention of this article. This is, of course, not the issue with having farms of adversary controlled electronics next to an air force base.

pictureofabear · 10 months ago
That's right... CFIUS has long been monitoring and regulating foreign countries purchasing land in the United States. This article is attempting to turn the status quo into news.
pictureofabear commented on Too much efficiency makes everything worse (2022)   sohl-dickstein.github.io/... · Posted by u/feyman_r
lynguist · a year ago
I would claim in a completely informal way that the optimal degree of utilization is ln(2)=0.693, around 70%.

This stems from the optimal load of self-balancing trees.

A little bit of slack is always useful to deal with the unforeseen.

And even a lot of slack is useful (though not always as it is costly) as it enables to do things that a dedicated resource cannot do.

On the other hand, no slack at all (so running at above 70%) makes a system inflexible and unresilient.

I would argue for this in any circumstance, be it military, be it public transit, be it funding, be it allocation of resources for a particular task.

pictureofabear · a year ago
Where e^-X and 1-e^-X intersect is 0.69. Mumbo? perhaps. Jumbo? perhaps not.
pictureofabear commented on Exothermic Core-Mantle Decoupling – Dzhanibekov Oscillation (ECDO) Hypothesis   theethicalskeptic.com/202... · Posted by u/jstanley
pictureofabear · a year ago
The author seems to be confused about inductive and deductive reasoning. He writes, "To that end, this hypothesis represents the last idea considered, only after all other possibilities have been falsified (see Image 1)." This to me sounds more like abductive reasoning.

Either way, this seems like a great opportunity to hijack this post by giving an excerpt from Zen and Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values by Robert Pirsig.

"Two kinds of logic are used, inductive and deductive. Inductive inferences start with observations of the machine and arrive at general conclusions. For example, if the cycle goes over a bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over another bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over another bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over a long smooth stretch of road and there is no misfiring, and then goes over a fourth bump and the engine misfires again, one can logically conclude that the misfiring is caused by the bumps. That is induction: reasoning from particular experiences to general truths.

Deductive inferences do the reverse. They start with general knowledge and predict a specific observation. For example, if, from reading the hierarchy of facts about the machine, the mechanic knows the horn of the cycle is powered exclusively by electricity from the battery, then he can logically infer that if the battery is dead the horn will not work. That is deduction.

Solution of problems too complicated for common sense to solve is achieved by long strings of mixed inductive and deductive inferences that weave back and forth between the observed machine and the mental hierarchy of the machine found in the manuals. The correct program for this inter-weaving is formalized as scientific method."

pictureofabear commented on Ask HN: Considering Living Abroad Given Political Instability    · Posted by u/leoh
pictureofabear · a year ago
The US political scene is not that crazy historically and certainly much less crazy than a lot of other places in the world.

I think a lot of us have this broad, seemingly undefinable feeling of anxiety. I think part of that feeling comes from the algorithmically controlled feeds that bait our amygdala. Another part of that anxiety comes from consuming news that has nothing to do with our local lives. Political news stokes your fears because it makes your more likely to vote, so what you're experiencing is likely ads and "news" stories designed to stir up your emotion to encourage you to go to the polls.

In the past year, I have severely reduced most of my consumption of national news, instead focusing on local events... things that effect my life daily. I have noticed a significant reduction in my anxiety levels. I also deleted all social media except for messaging apps to talk with friends and families. That has been great too.

u/pictureofabear

KarmaCake day258July 27, 2022View Original