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judahmeek commented on US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years   bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/master_crab
AtlasBarfed · 10 days ago
What you really need to understand about inflation, is that we've had particularly exceptionally low long-term inflation in America for the last 50 years, outside of stagflation in the '70s.

And this is all enabled by globalization and global trade. Globalization fundamentally provides arbitrage for two things. Labor costs, and environmental regulation.

Because there were a lot of poor desperate countries that would build your stuff for near slave labor conditions.

In particular, China of course. But China has now passed through its phase of poor desperation. It is now an urbanized economy. So of a lot of other poor desperate countries aren't quite as poor desperate.

Globalization is fundamentally enabled by the US Navy and US military supremacy guaranteeing shipping trade on the oceans.

This has not been the historical Norm. It's actually historical anomaly caused by the power vacuum of world war II, and secondarily by the fact that the Cold war was between the US and maritime power and Russia, who are effectively landlocked.

Some scholars term China as a continental power, especially cuz of their history of invasion like the Mongols, but unlike Russia, China has a very large coastline with a lot of ports that aren't locked in by Arctic ice.

They are a hybrid Continental and a maritime power, and based on their shipbuilding, their ambitions are to become a maritime power.

This combined with American lack of enthusiasm for maintaining this global order, likely means that globalization will come to an end.

And that means onshoring production back from China.

We'll see if this actually happens, but that is the trend long-term.

And that involves a huge amount of switching costs, which essentially is going to be inflation.

I'm certainly not going to sit here and say that Trump's economic policies are correct. Of course, the proper way to handle a transition of reonshoring our production from our previous 50 years of globalization would be gradual and controlled.

Not a bunch of stupid chaotic tariff policies.

But essentially what Trump is doing is in line with everything I've described.

judahmeek · 9 days ago
> But essentially what Trump is doing is in line with everything I've described.

No. Trump's tariffs are too unfocused to accomplish any goal besides increasing American inflation from what I've read.

Trump's tariffs on raw materials, metals, etc make no sense whatsoever.

Motivating the creation of new mines or refining facilities should have been done through subsidies, possibly combined with promise of future tariffs.

And, obviously, Trump's tariffs on raw materials raise the cost of construction & composite products, which will likely push manufacturing out of the U.S.

judahmeek commented on Why are there so many rationalist cults?   asteriskmag.com/issues/11... · Posted by u/glenstein
ben_w · 11 days ago
"Large" is very vague.

The leaderboard shows (50 of) 166385 registered accounts* on https://www.lesswrong.com/leaderboard

This is simultaneously a large body and an insignificant minority.

* How many are junk accounts? IDK. But I do know it's international, because I live in Berlin, Germany, and socialise regularly.

judahmeek · 10 days ago
> But I do know it's international, because I live in Berlin, Germany, and socialise regularly.

This made me chuckle. Thanks!

judahmeek commented on The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]   sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Sl... · Posted by u/akyuu
mensetmanusman · 12 days ago
“they have little, low quality sex”

This is funny to mention, because studies on sex life show the opposite: https://www.peterhaas.org/why-church-attendees-have-the-best...

judahmeek · 12 days ago
Your source is incredibly biased.

Here's a source that's less biased that your source cites: http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2013/07/19/the_family_r...

judahmeek commented on Does the stock market know something we don't?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/littlexsparkee
judahmeek · 16 days ago
I love The Atlantic for articles like this.

I've definitely considered liquidity & wealth inequality as reasons behind the resilience & height of the stock market, but I would never have considered the effort of a switch from active to passive brokers.

I guess short-term it means that the stock market just barrels upwards and shrugs off issues that would have resulted in market corrections.

Long-term, my guess is that the first effect of this will be on politics. The stock market is used as an indicator by politicians of consumer confidence and the more resilient the stock market is, the more willing politicians will be to play fast & loose.

judahmeek commented on Does the stock market know something we don't?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/littlexsparkee
bell-cot · 17 days ago
It knows that there are far too many powerful players in market, who are far too emotionally invested in Numbers Go Up - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41423231
judahmeek · 16 days ago
And what evidence is there to support that the cause is emotional investment instead of passive, detached investment that's actually driving the majority of the market?
judahmeek commented on Does the stock market know something we don't?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/littlexsparkee
jdlshore · 16 days ago
At least one popular passive investment guide, _A Random Walk Through Wall Street,_ explicitly recommends investing in a real estate fund. Or at least it did last time I looked.
judahmeek · 16 days ago
A comparison of XLRE or USRT to SPY across 5 years makes that seem like a terrible idea.
judahmeek commented on Project Hyperion: Interstellar ship design competition   projecthyperion.org... · Posted by u/codeulike
jvanderbot · 17 days ago
The question is not "Would a randomly selected demographic be a good pool for this mission"

The question is "Could we create a cadre of 400 highly effective people that could sustain a colony on a spaceship.

I argue the answer to the first is "No" for any demographic but the answer to the second is a clear "Yes".

judahmeek · 17 days ago
> The question is "Could we create a cadre of 400 highly effective people that could sustain a colony on a spaceship?"

For a generational ship, the question becomes even more complex because you would have to build a culture of expertise that can sustain itself over multiple generations.

judahmeek commented on ‘No Other Land’ consultant Awdah Hathaleen killed by Israeli settler   latimes.com/entertainment... · Posted by u/_shadi
andsoitis · 23 days ago
You said that Israelites dehumanize Palestinians.
judahmeek · 22 days ago
Improve your reading comprehension.

I said: "Instead of recognizing Palestinian humanity, Israelites (not all, but enough to gain control of their government) have allowed themselves to discriminate, dehumanize, and persecute them."

"Israelites dehumanize Palestinians" is an over-simplification of my statement.

judahmeek commented on ‘No Other Land’ consultant Awdah Hathaleen killed by Israeli settler   latimes.com/entertainment... · Posted by u/_shadi
andsoitis · 23 days ago
> Israelites

The demonym for someone from Israel is Israeli.

> Instead of recognizing Palestinian humanity

There are ~2m Palestinians in Israel, making up about 21% percent of the population of Israel and Palestinians in Israel have had the right to vote since 1949.

According to my research, there are 10 Palestinians in the Knesset.

So I don't know that your claim is accurate.

judahmeek · 23 days ago
> According to my research, there are 10 Palestinians in the Knesset.

That's great, but it doesn't contradict my claim. After all, I didn't say "all Israelis". I said "enough Israelis to gain control of their government".

u/judahmeek

KarmaCake day320September 19, 2015
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