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harmmonica commented on Why do commercial spaces sit vacant?   archive.strongtowns.org/j... · Posted by u/NaOH
epistasis · 2 days ago
We were very close to repealing Prop 13 on commercial property a few years ago (via Prop 15).

One of the biggest objections to a straight repeal Prop 13 on commercial property is that most commercial leases are triple-net, meaning that the businesses directly pay the taxes. Which means that a bunch of small businesses that are just barely on the edge of profitability will shut down when they finally have to pay their fair share of property tax.

Agreed on the need to do it though (and also Texas typically has higher taxes for a normal person, with worse services than California). We might just want to pass a gradual phase in or a requirement that landowners pay it without increasing rent )and doing reach through to modify all those triple net leases... or something. Or we just let the businesses fail, but the public tends to not like lots of small businesses failing.

harmmonica · 2 days ago
Yeah, I feel like the yimby's are going to take another run at repealing it for investment properties (5+ units of multifamily and all of commercially-zoned property) and it stands a much greater chance of passing the next time because of how close it was last time. The messaging will be much sharper.

Re your NNN comment, would you mind sharing a source for that? My gut says it's not accurate, but happy to be proven wrong. If you meant total square footage of leased space, that would make more sense, but having a hard time believing most leases are NNN (and since your point was about businesses going under what I think matters is the number of leases because (a bit over-simplified) 1 lease = 1 business regardless of the square footage leased by the business.

The ironic thing about this whole topic of businesses going under is that there's no rent control, for the most part, for businesses and yet Prop 13 acts as rent control (i.e., carried cost control) for landlords. If the landlords only charged the market rent that was achievable at the time they bought the property with a nominal capped annual increase that'd be pretty good for operating businesses, just not for the landlord's real estate business.

P.s. I personally benefit from Prop 13 and would be happy to have its market-distorting bullshit eliminated!

harmmonica commented on Why do commercial spaces sit vacant?   archive.strongtowns.org/j... · Posted by u/NaOH
polalavik · 2 days ago
We need land value tax bad [1]

In Los Angeles I’ve watched business after business close because their rent was increased by their commercial landlord only for the property to sit vacant in some cases (no exaggeration) for over 5 years!

Thats absurd. Also as a business owner who would like some space to work out of your only options are endless swaths of vacant industrial buildings that are tens of thousands in rent a month. I don’t quite get how anyone runs a brick and mortar or has space to do anything profitable.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax

harmmonica · 2 days ago
I’d support a land value tax myself so don’t take this following comment as criticism, but you don’t even need a land value tax in the case of LA. You do need to repeal Prop 13 for investment properties. I wager most of those years-vacant properties have a generous Prop 13 assessment and so the owner can just sit on it because their carrying cost is closer to zero than what it would be in any other tax regime. Then all of us folks around them continue to make the adjacent area nicer and they just ride off into the sunset while the absurd delta between their taxable value and market value increases.

Prop 13 is like the anti land value tax. Makes places like Texas look downright progressive.

harmmonica commented on Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros   about.netflix.com/en/news... · Posted by u/meetpateltech
trunnell · 14 days ago
Commenters here seem to be missing the larger David vs. Goliath story...

Netflix was a silicon valley start-up with a tech founder (Reed) who teamed up with an LA movie buff (Ted). They tried to solve a problem: it was too hard to watch movies at home, and Hollywood seemed to hate new tech. The movie industry titans alternated between fighting Netflix and making deals. They fought Netflix's ability to bulk purchase and rent out DVDs. Later, they lobbed insults even while taking Netflix's money for content licensing. Here's Jeff Bewkes, CEO of Time Warner, in 2010:

"It’s a little bit like, is the Albanian army going to take over the world? I don’t think so." [1]

Remember: this was the same movie industry that gave us the MPAA and the DMCA. They were trying to ensure the internet, and new tech in general, had zero impact on them. Streaming movies and TV probably wouldn't exist if Netflix had not forced the issue.

Netflix buying HBO is significant, but also just another chapter in this story of Netflix's internet distribution model out-competing the Hollywood incumbents. Even now in 2025, at least 12 years after it was perfectly clear that streaming direct to the consumer would be the future, the industry is still struggling to turn the corner. Instead, they're selling themselves to Netflix.

I was at Netflix 2009-2019. It was shocking how easily our little "Albanian army" overthrew the empire. Our opponents barely fought back, and when they did, they were often incompetent with tech. To me, this is a story about how competent tech carried the day.

Netflix has been rapidly buying and building studio capacity for a decade now. Adding the WB studio production capacity is a huge win for Netflix. It makes those studios more productive: each day of content production is now worth more when distributed via Netflix's global platform.

Same with WB and HBO catalog and IP: it's worth more when its available to Netflix's approx 300 million members. Netflix can make new TV and films based on that IP, and it will be worth more than if it was only on HBO's platforms.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/business/media/13bewkes.h...

harmmonica · 13 days ago
Had to read this a couple of times to try and figure out why, as of this moment, you’ve been downvoted because this seems like one of the more insightful comments on here. Maybe it’s too inside baseball about the post-deal opportunity? Anyway not supposed to talk about downvotes so…

You were there for a while. Was/is studio capacity still a constraint on production? You read so many stories about how LA studios are struggling to fill space because all of the productions have left town for tax credits elsewhere. Curious if you’re still plugged in enough and know that it’s still true about their studio space. I assumed their interest was strictly a content play and the extra studio space might actually be an anchor they were willing to drag along to get the content/IP.

harmmonica commented on Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros   about.netflix.com/en/news... · Posted by u/meetpateltech
harmmonica · 14 days ago
Couple of unrelated thoughts on this very long thread...

1. I'm sure multiple people have pointed it out, but for all the talk of a bubble, the AOL Time Warner merger was likely the biggest canary in the coal mine for what was to come. History repeats itself with literally the same brand and a lot of the same assets? Sort of depressing if the bubble does now burst because it's like we never learn our lesson

2. Trump wanted the Ellisons because they support him. There's almost no question in my mind the government will fight this. Will they win in court? Hard to say, but my quick thoughts:

If market cap was the basis for antitrust then the answer would be maybe, but that's not the basis for it. Is revenue the basis? No, but Disney generates more than Netflix, so does Comcast, so as a proxy for market share, which I think is somewhat the basis for antitrust (iamaal) it seems like there's no chance this creates some anticompetitive media juggernaut. But then the question is whether streaming is different than more general media. And if it is, how do you define the market when a company like Apple is involved in streaming but not fully a media company? Does that balance things out a bit? I don't think it does because I don't think anyone could claim that Apple counterbalances Netflix in streaming market share. If anything it would be a further argument against Netflix having Netflix and HBOMax.

Now having written all of that, I think the government would win because Paramount streaming with HBO would at least stand a chance in the streaming market against Netflix. And then also increase general media competition because you'd have Disney/ABC, Comcast/NBC, Paramount/CBS with the WBD addition improving Paramount's competitive position relative to the other two.

harmmonica commented on How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs   arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047... · Posted by u/50kIters
omilu · 15 days ago
People that favor tariffs, want to bring manufacturing capabilities back to the US, in the hopes of creating jobs, and increasing national security by minimizing dependence on foreign governments for critical capabilities. This is legitimate cost benefit analysis not bellyfeel. People are aware of the increased cost associated with it.
harmmonica · 15 days ago
An aside on tariffs, it’s a tax (either literally depending on the upcoming SCOTUS ruling, or if not in name then in whatever language SCOTUS decides to call an additional fee consumers pay when buying goods. But a tax either way).

Relevant to the post, when supporters believe that “foreigners are swallowing 100% of the cost of the tariffs” they cheer them on. Those same supporters when they’re told the truth that consumers do end up with inflated prices because of them? Their support plummets.

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harmmonica commented on Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public   ft.com/content/3254fa30-5... · Posted by u/GeorgeWoff25
sc68cal · 16 days ago
> margins are either good or can soon become good.

Their margins are negative and every increase in usage results in more cost. They have a whole leaderboard of people who pay $20 a month and then use $60,000 of compute.

https://www.viberank.app

harmmonica · 16 days ago
Do you mind giving a bit more details in layman's terms about this assuming the $60k per subscriber isn't hyperbole? Is that the total cost of the latest training run amortized per existing subscriber plus the inference cost to serve that one subscriber?

If you tell me to click the link, I did, but backed out because I thought you'd actually be willing to break it down here instead. I could also ask Claude about it I guess.

harmmonica commented on We're committing $6.25B to give 25M children a financial head start   onedell.com/investamerica... · Posted by u/duck
twoodfin · 17 days ago
The government is now funding savings accounts for kids, with the financial education benefits a prime motivator.

Dell’s contribution is explicitly piggybacking on the new federal accounts.

harmmonica · 17 days ago
Yes, good call, you're right. Does that completely undercut my sentiment? That said, I'm all for Dell and every other billionaire jumping on board as well because you'd end up with a pretty nice entitle--err--nest egg for the future. I even have a clever name for it: pre-social security.
harmmonica commented on We're committing $6.25B to give 25M children a financial head start   onedell.com/investamerica... · Posted by u/duck
fourseventy · 17 days ago
So even when billionaires do give away their money it's still not good enough for you?

The anti-rich sentient has somehow reached such a fever pitch that when a billionaire donates $6B to children the top post on HN is bitching about it.

harmmonica · 17 days ago
I think you hit the nail on the head with your "good enough" phrasing. It might actually not be good enough. It begs all sorts of questions about the state of things in the US that an extremely wealthy individual has the means to do this and at the same time that something like this doesn't already exist for the recipients via some other mechanism such as the entity that's responsible for a citizen's well being playing some role.

It is good, though. I think most folks who complain about it, though, wish it were better (better does not mean Dell spends even more of his own money on this, not directly anyway).

harmmonica commented on We're committing $6.25B to give 25M children a financial head start   onedell.com/investamerica... · Posted by u/duck
tjwebbnorfolk · 17 days ago
Why is private philanthropy not sensible in this case? Should all philanthropy be socialized and centralized and administered by the federal government?
harmmonica · 17 days ago
No, it should not all be socialized and centralized. Think things are running smoothly in the US at the moment? I wish it were the case that Michael Dell would have to consider whether the deployment of that kind of capital is a layup for him or if it requires some major sacrifice on his part. And, yes, it's better that he does it than not, but I won't pat him on the back too hard given the math.

u/harmmonica

KarmaCake day1049January 31, 2015View Original