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eloff commented on The company behind Stable Diffusion appears to be at risk of going under   futurism.com/the-byte/sta... · Posted by u/SheddingPattern
unethical_ban · 2 years ago
Comparing a provider of storage to a transfer tool, classic incorrect pedantry
eloff · 2 years ago
That matters little.

The point is people on HN missed the potential of Dropbox because for them it was a problem they already had a half solution for. For regular people who don’t know what an rsync is, Dropbox seemed like magic.

The moral of the story is that if a solution is only available to a technicaly savvy minority, the market opportunity is still wide open.

eloff commented on Electricity Prices by Country   electricrate.com/data-cen... · Posted by u/highfrequency
pydry · 2 years ago
There is no such lesson. EDF is going bankrupt, France is spending billions trying to replace reactors aging out and about 20% or so of the ~70 billion decommissioning costs are funded.

The important lesson here should be that retail prices != prices.

eloff · 2 years ago
I stand corrected!
slashdev commented on Electricity Prices by Country   electricrate.com/data-cen... · Posted by u/highfrequency
yodsanklai · 2 years ago
France seems to be in a sweet spot: low electricity price and low CO2 emissions, thanks to nuclear power?
slashdev · 2 years ago
There's a important lesson about using nuclear power as an energy source in there. Contrast that with Germany which is shuttering their nuclear power plants in favor of renewables.
slashdev commented on I wish GPT4 had never happened   chaudhry.notion.site/I-wi... · Posted by u/adhocmobility
ImHereToVote · 2 years ago
Progress towards what?
slashdev · 2 years ago
Don't be pedantic. From Oxford dictionary: "advance or development toward a better, more complete, or more modern condition"
eloff commented on I wish GPT4 had never happened   chaudhry.notion.site/I-wi... · Posted by u/adhocmobility
bryanlarsen · 2 years ago
But what if >50% of people are in the "disrupted" category?
eloff · 2 years ago
Then you get a revolution and the whole system is torn down and rebuilt in a different form. That's highly undesirable, and as I mentioned, is a real tail risk to consider.
eloff commented on I wish GPT4 had never happened   chaudhry.notion.site/I-wi... · Posted by u/adhocmobility
Veen · 2 years ago
Sure, but many of the "progress is inevitable" people are also often the "get your stinking government hands off my hard-earned money" people. Increasing taxation of the beneficiaries of AI technology to provide a safety net for the losers is one way of dealing with it, but I'm not sure it's politically achievable in much of the world in a way that will instill confidence in the people who face the loss of their livelihoods.
eloff · 2 years ago
"progress is inevitable": It's not actually. Progress is only made if people take the risk and effort to advance progress. That does require rewarding them appropriately for the risk taken. I'm not saying we get that balance exactly right currently, but it is necessary.

In general just taxing the winners (wealthy) period is well tolerated politcally, but it also requires a goverment that's somewhat fiscally responsible and not spending $800B a year on their military instead of social programs. The US hasn't had a fiscally responsible government since Clinton, and the pigeons are currently coming home to roost in the form of inflation and loss of confidence in the US dollar as the reserve currency.

eloff commented on I wish GPT4 had never happened   chaudhry.notion.site/I-wi... · Posted by u/adhocmobility
Veen · 2 years ago
You're right, but the phrase "people complain" elides a lot and shows a callous lack of empathy. People complain because they lose their jobs, their homes, their standard of living, their future prospects, their ability to feed their families, their relationships, their social status, their healthcare benefits and therefore their healthcare, their mental health, and in some cases their lives (suicide is not unusual for people who lose all of the above). For every Priya who gets a new job as an AI wrangler, there will be many who do not.
eloff · 2 years ago
How that is handled really comes down to how your society has agreed to establish a social safety net.

In Northern Europe it’s handled quite well. In the U.S. it’s handled with a “callous lack of empathy” as you phrased it.

My point is disruption is the engine of progress, but it also causes temporary pain (that might not be temporary on the scale of human lifetimes.) It’s the wrong reaction to want to stop or slow progress. You can actually prove that through the lens of game theory and the fact that we have multiple human societies. The right thing to do is ensure your society doesn’t leave the losers of that process behind.

eloff commented on I wish GPT4 had never happened   chaudhry.notion.site/I-wi... · Posted by u/adhocmobility
bryanlarsen · 2 years ago
Disruptions in the past have almost always been good for society overall, but there have also always been significant localized negative effects. For example, a farrier may have been thrown out of work and had to switch to unskilled labor, but their sons and daughters were better off.

The issue is that as change comes faster and faster, a higher proportion of people fall into the "disrupted" category.

eloff · 2 years ago
I agree, I said as much about winners and losers being created.

It’s still a good thing for society - the alternative is halting or slowing progress.

eloff commented on I wish GPT4 had never happened   chaudhry.notion.site/I-wi... · Posted by u/adhocmobility
inimino · 2 years ago
Your comment is amazing in its naivete. The first sentence in the post you are replying to already includes awareness of everything you said and more, while nothing in your comment suggests you understood the post at all. Priya doesn't become 10 times more productive, someone else uses the tool to do her job, which no longer exists.
eloff · 2 years ago
That cycle has gone on since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Jobs are destroyed, people complain and protest, new jobs are created and the total economic pie and the absolute size of the average person’s slice increases.

A valid question is are there inventions for which this would not be true? I think yes for general AI, but also yes for people who are unable to migrate between a job lost and any of the new jobs created due to lack of education or willingness to reinvent themselves or relocate to where the new jobs are. Innovation can definitely create winners and losers. That’s bad for the losers, but not necessarily for society as a whole. Unless so many losers are created that they rise up and overthrow the system. That’s a real long tail risk if the pace of change sufficiently outpaces our ability to adapt to it.

eloff commented on Humans in Humans Out: GPT Converging Toward Common Sense in Both Success/Failure   arxiv.org/abs/2303.17276... · Posted by u/elsewhen
PartiallyTyped · 2 years ago
IQ is not measurable by knowledge, but by speed of execution and understanding through limited information.
eloff · 2 years ago
It’s both really if you look at IQ tests. It’s part of the reason immigrants will often score lower, they lack the culture or language specific knowledge being tested.

IQ is a proxy for intelligence. People often use them interchangeably, but they’re not the same thing. Your statement is more valid for intelligence than IQ.

u/eloff

KarmaCake day14985May 14, 2013
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