Per the author’s links, he warned that deep learning was hitting a wall in both 2018 and 2022. Now would be a reasonable time to look back and say “whoops, I was wrong about that.” Instead he seems to be doubling down.
Readit Newshighfrequency commented on A trillion dollars (potentially) wasted on gen-AI garymarcus.substack.com/p... · Posted by u/flail
Great respect for Ilya, but I don’t see an explicit argument why scaling RL in tons of domains wouldn’t work.
Nobody subsidizes LLM APIs. There is a reason to subsidize free consumer offerings: those users are very sticky, and won't switch unless the alternative is much better.
There might be a reason to subsidize subscriptions, but only if your value is in the app rather than the model.
But for API use, the models are easily substituted, so market share is fleeting. The LLM interface being unstructured plain text makes it simpler to upgrade to a smarter model than than it used to be to swap a library or upgrade to a new version of the JVM.
And there is no customer loyalty. Both the users and the middlemen will chase after the best price and performance. The only choice is at the Pareto frontier.
Likewise there is no other long-term gain from getting a short-term API user. You can't train out tune on their inputs, so there is no classic Search network effect either.
And it's not even just about the cost. Any compute they allocate to inference is compute they aren't allocating to training. There is a real opportunity cost there.
I guess your theory of Opus 4.1 having massive margins while Opus 4.5 has slim ones could work. But given how horrible Anthropic's capacity issues have been for much of the year, that seems unlikely as well. Unless the new Opus is actually cheaper to run, where are they getting the compute from for the massive usage spike that seems inevitable.
> But for API use, the models are easily substituted, so market share is fleeting. The LLM interface being unstructured plain text makes it simpler to upgrade to a smarter model than than it used to be to swap a library or upgrade to a new version of the JVM.
Agree that the plain text interface (which enables extremely fast user adoption) also makes the product less sticky. I wonder if this is part of the incentive to push for specialized tool calling interfaces / MCP stuff - to engineer more lock in by increasing the model specific surface area.
Sure, every business owner has incentives that point to delivering a worse product (eg cheaper pizza ingredients increase margins). For most businesses there is a strong counteracting incentive to do a great job so the customer returns next week.
The key variable is how long that gap of time is. In the online dating example, if the dating app does a sufficiently great job you will never return. A milder version: if the used car salesman gives you great value, you might be back in 10 years. This creates very weak incentives for good service, so more predatory tactics dominate.
highfrequency commented on AI is a front for consolidation of resources and power chrbutler.com/what-ai-is-... · Posted by u/delaugust
The universal theme with general purpose technologies is 1) they start out lagging behind current practices in every context 2) they improve rapidly, but 3) they break through and surpass current practices in different contexts at different times.
What that means is that if you work in a certain context, for a while you keep seeing AI get a 0 because it is worse than the current process. Behind the scenes the underlying technology is improving rapidly, but because it hasn’t cusped the viability threshold you don’t feel it at all. From this vantage point, it is easy to dismiss the whole thing and forget about the slope, because the whole line is under the surface of usefulness in your context. The author has identified two cases where current AI is below the cusp of viability: design and large scale changes to a codebase (though Codex is cracking the second one quickly).
The hard and useful thing is not to find contexts where the general purpose technology gets a 0, but to surf the cusp of viability by finding incrementally harder problems that are newly solvable as the underlying technology improves. A very clear example of this is early Tesla surfing the reduction in Li-ion battery prices by starting with expensive sports cars, then luxury sedans, then normal cars. You can be sure that throughout the first two phases, everyone at GM and Toyota was saying: Li-ion batteries are totally infeasible for the consumers we prioritize who want affordable cars. By the time the technology is ready for sedans, Tesla has a 5 year lead.
highfrequency commented on Building more with GPT-5.1-Codex-Max openai.com/index/gpt-5-1-... · Posted by u/hansonw
Is GPT-5.1-Codex better or worse than GPT-5.1 (Thinking) for straight up mathematical reasoning (ie if it is optimized for making code edits)? Said another way: what is the set of tasks where you expect GPT 5.1 to be better suited than GPT-5.1 Codex? Is it non-coding problems or non-technical problems?