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cameldrv commented on US attack on renewables will lead to power crunch that spikes electricity prices   cnbc.com/2025/08/24/solar... · Posted by u/rntn
picafrost · 2 days ago
We tried ideology driven energy policy in Europe and it hasn't gone well. We phased out nuclear power plants (because nuclear = bad) while doubling down on Russian gas dependency (because trade = peace). Clearly this has gone poorly and it will take Europe a decade to strengthen its energy sovereignty again.

There are good reasons to question renewable energy: the cost picture doesn't make sense right now, it has intermittency problems, etc. But killing renewable projects because, uh, farming or whatever?, particularly at a time when the demand for energy is growing faster than ever, seems short sighted at best.

cameldrv · 2 days ago
The costs for solar and batteries have come down a whole lot since ~10 years ago during the energiewende. IMO solar is the cost leader in areas where there is decent sun. The U.S. has a lot better sun than Germany.
cameldrv commented on Lab-grown salmon hits the menu   smithsonianmag.com/smart-... · Posted by u/bookmtn
scythe · 7 days ago
>I'm just not sure how you could justify calling plant-based meats non-ultra-processed under any useful definition of the term.

The most pressing question here: is tofu ultra-processed? It's a protein isolate prepared by a solution-precipitation process. If you replace the tofu salts (calcium sulfate and similar) with ethanol (an anti-solvent for proteins) you get protein powder. This is not the most efficient way make protein powder, but the point is that on the one hand you have a traditional centuries-old process, and on the other you have what seems to be a sine qua non of ultraprocessed food, and the difference is... ethanol.

Beyond Meat, which contains... dietary fiber... is part of a particular subset of highly processed foods that are trying to be healthy. If you see "chicory root extract" on a food's ingredients label, it's probably in this club. This is a telltale sign of spiking the dietary fiber content. (Beyond Meat does not contain chicory; its fiber is from peas.)

Most ultra-processed foods are not trying to be healthy. They are designed to be addictive. It's a little bit like the old kerfuffle over "weapons-grade" encryption being restricted for export. The technology can be useful for military purposes, but encryption is not a weapon per se.

The critical diversion is not from meat to processed foods, but from the practice of deliberately engineering addictive foods to the techniques that facilitate it. The food product companies would like you to look anywhere other than their intentions, because they can always change the how and what in pursuit of them. They will always be happy to ostentatiously move away from the old way of making a bag of chips you can't put down, to the new way of making a bag of chips you can't put down. The root of the problem is the incentive structure.

cameldrv · 7 days ago
Their intentions sort of don't matter. The food company and the grocery store are businesses, and the idea that a business should exist for anything except profit has become less fashionable. In any case, there are enough business owners/executives who believe this, and are not punished for it, that they will outcompete you if you don't.

The way to make a good profit in the food industry is to sell a lot of a product that you can sell for a good price, but have it be very cheap to manufacture. If you take really cheap input material that historically was used mostly for animal feed, like corn or oats, and can do a bunch of food science magic to it to make it very tasty and addictive, you can charge a good price and people will buy lots of it.

The problem with ultraprocessed foods is simply that the manufacturer has been given too many free parameters, and if they get enough they can find something addictive and unhealthy. Since shelf space on grocery store shelves is allocated based on sales, the shelves will be filled with addictive food. This is even true of the produce section. Fruits and vegetables are bred to increase their sugar content, reduce bitterness, etc. Luckily breeding fruit trees is more time consuming and less controllable than all of the chemistry that can happen in a potato chip factory. We will see how this holds up as genetic engineering becomes more predictable.

Anyhow the only solution we've really come up with to this social problem is to change our brains with Glucagon Like Peptides to be less susceptible to these tricks. We will see how long that is able to keep ahead of the food companies.

cameldrv commented on Apple and Amazon will miss AI like Intel missed mobile   gmays.com/the-biggest-bet... · Posted by u/gmays
cameldrv · 8 days ago
We will see. One thing with AI is that access to data/APIs is key. There’s been a long term trend where services are locking down their APIs so that you can only interact with them through their native UI, either phone or web, sometimes just phone. Many of the most promising uses of AI are to automate around various annoying things service providers do to drive their own revenue, and the service providers aren’t taking this lying down.

Apple is in a very favorable position with its control of arguably the most important platform of all. They can force app developers to allow Apple AI to automate their apps, and prevent other AI providers from doing the same, and they make a strong privacy argument about why this is necessary.

cameldrv commented on The decline of high-tech manufacturing in the United States   blog.waldrn.com/p/the-dec... · Posted by u/giuliomagnifico
nostrademons · 8 days ago
If you are a customer, it is almost by definition "low-value manufacturing", because you have only one household's worth of money to spend, and not a Fortune 500 company's or nation-state's budget to spend. If you're buying jet engines or nuclear reactors or jet fighters, they are probably made in the U.S. (I probably erred in choosing "consumer electronics" as an example, because most of those are made abroad. Even so, there are some surprises: I just bought a brand-new Toyota Sienna manufactured in Indiana, and a System76 Thelio workstation manufactured in Colorado.)
cameldrv · 8 days ago
Guess what. China is making nuclear reactors and jet engines now. It’s the absolute classic Clayton Christensen situation with countries instead of companies. The incumbent retreats upmarket until they have ceded the entire thing.
cameldrv commented on The decline of high-tech manufacturing in the United States   blog.waldrn.com/p/the-dec... · Posted by u/giuliomagnifico
magicalhippo · 8 days ago
> I have coworkers that used to work in chip manufacturing (used to being the key phrase)

A family friend was a chip designer for a large European company. Back in the 2000s he told me he saw the writing on the wall as they moved manufacturing to Asia.

He said he expected design to follow not long after, and sure enough some 5 or so years later he lost his job as they moved design department closer to the factories.

Perhaps it's different now, but as I recall he said there were advantages of chip designers being close to the chip manufacturing folks.

cameldrv · 8 days ago
I’ve seen the advantages firsthand. The test guys would drive across town and pick up some chips hot off the fab, put them on the scope under various conditions, and then be pushing updates in a day or two. The designer could actually sit with the test guy and fiddle with the tests to understand the problem better, and then walk upstairs and mess with the simulator. None of this can happen at nearly the fluidity or speed when you’re designing, producing, dicing, packaging, and testing the chips all in different time zones.
cameldrv commented on GPT-4o quoted deleted GPT-5 content. Model isolation appears brok    · Posted by u/amageingrace
cameldrv · 9 days ago
I’ve found the interaction between memory and sycophancy to be a major issue. I was trying to help deal with a difficult and confusing medical issue, and based on some lab tests, GPT had determined it was likely condition X. I had also asked a lot of questions about the treatment of condition X. After some follow up tests, it was clear that it wasn’t condition X, but it was extremely difficult to get ChatGPT to give up on it, even with deleting old chats and starting new ones, even changing the name of the patient. Starting in a private chat worked, but then it gets deleted when you close the window.
cameldrv commented on What kids told us about how to get them off their phones   theatlantic.com/ideas/arc... · Posted by u/jc_811
zabzonk · 11 days ago
Anyone know when this all changed? At the age of 5 I used to walk to school alone without me or my parents worrying. That would have been about 1958/9.
cameldrv · 11 days ago
I started walking to school at age 7 in the mid 80s. Granted it was only three blocks and there was a crossing guard for the busy street. At my kids school there’s a crossing guard too, but you hardly ever see a kid crossing without their parent. Maybe a 6th grader.
cameldrv commented on What kids told us about how to get them off their phones   theatlantic.com/ideas/arc... · Posted by u/jc_811
lm28469 · 11 days ago
Literally nothing ? because statistically speaking they virtually all survived. And of the ones that did not survive the extreme vast majority didn't die because they were "playing outside"
cameldrv · 11 days ago
I completely agree. That said when I was a kid there was always a kid in class with a cast or a sling for their collar bone, and these days you hardly ever see it.
cameldrv commented on What kids told us about how to get them off their phones   theatlantic.com/ideas/arc... · Posted by u/jc_811
hydrogen7800 · 11 days ago
I guess I'm about your age, and I remember doing much of the same. Lots of time on my bike with friends, playing hockey or football in the street, "manhunt" at night around the neighborhood (we were too cool to call it hide-and-seek at that age). But I also remember playing video games indoors, and my mother reminding us about how her mother kicked her out of the house when she was young, and how they were outside until the streetlights came on.

Today, I hear a lot of complaining about kids being inside all the time as opposed to prior generations. However, this is anecdotal and maybe my neighborhood is unique, I always see kids out on bikes with basketballs, fishing rods, etc. We are slowly letting our kid on their bike around the neighborhood with friends, and my big fear is getting hit by a car, especially while in a group and everyone pays less attention.

cameldrv · 11 days ago
Me too. One thing I noticed in the 2000s was kids being more and more restricted and then they started getting drivers licenses later, living with their parents after college, etc. It felt as if parents thought that when their kid turned 18, that they would magically mature and become independent. Of course this is a process, and you can start it at 7 or you can start it at 18…

On a happy note, we were out eating at a cafeteria type restaurant, but we were sitting outside sort of picnicing about a 3 minute walk away. My son wanted another slice of pizza, but I didn’t really want to go inside and get it for him, so I decided to give him some money and let him get it himself. He came back with the slice of pizza on a plate, on a tray, with the right change and absolutely beaming and he talked about it for days.

cameldrv commented on U.S. alcohol consumption drops to a 90-year low, new poll finds   sfchronicle.com/food/wine... · Posted by u/littlexsparkee
lotsofpulp · 12 days ago
What huge drop? I see 58% to 54% in the previous year. It was 62% to 58% from 2023 to 2024.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/693362/drinking-rate-new-low-al...

I would expect drastic changes after orforglipron hits the market. An easy to take pill that can help keep your A1C down and save money by avoiding excess calories and alcohol, seems like a no brainer for most.

cameldrv · 12 days ago
So that's an 8% drop in two years. Put another way, 13% of people who drank alcohol in 2023 no longer do in 2025. That seems like a fast and dramatic change to me, but I guess it depends on your perspective.

u/cameldrv

KarmaCake day8490February 21, 2007
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