Jeez Zucky, I wonder why social is dying. Is it because there's no bloody social between the ads and random algorithm shite anymore?

E: haha, the rest of the comments say likewise. Redundant comment but +1 anecdata.

Also for what it's worth I've checked a few profiles and yeah friends are still posting, I'm just not seeing it. I guess I scrolled past some post about something too quickly and now Facebook thinks I don't care? Maybe the algorithm is just broken lol.

So if you assume their revenue is in that range, you're looking at 66x to 133x ARR multiple. In today's market that's quite a big markup. Standard SaaS right now is probably more like 5-15x. AI is a lot more (but Supabase isn't AI). But they are a key leader in their market, so probably get a meaningful bonus for that. And I'm sure a lot of big industry investors were competing against each other for the Supabase deal, so that definitely would have helped valuation too. Also, at their maturity today, they are probably showing some great success signing big enterprise deals and telling a story about how that will grow.

That being said, those factors alone don't answer 66-133x. Perhaps Supabase's strongest angle is their opportunity for product-led growth:

- They have a huge number of people on a free tier

- The growth rate of free tier users might be accelerating

- The conversion rate of free tier users to paid users might also be increasing

- They're adding more things that people can pay for, increasing LTV of customers. e.g., for my business, we probably 20x our Supabase cost in the last 6 months - most of that is due to our growth but also there are a lot of things we can buy from Supabase beyond compute.

So I would assume, in addition to the above, they're telling a story about their actual revenue growth rate will accelerate meaningfully because of all of these factors working together.

Lots of assumptions in here, but you can start to see how a lot of different factors + a hype multiple could lead to such a valuation.

[1] https://getlatka.com/companies/supabase.com#revenue

[2] https://leadiq.com/c/supabase/5ed1e4778a998f161ef62998