awinder (u/awinder) - Readit News

awinder commented on Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 economist.com/the-world-a... · Posted by u/madmanweb

ianai · 3 years ago

Right, they bailed out corporations and threw people out of their homes. Never forgive, never forget.

I’d still largely say this Fed is departing from history. The economy last saw a pandemic like covid in 1918. And that was during a world war.

awinder · 3 years ago

Bailing out companies keeps people in jobs & backstops the assets that comprise retirement/pension systems, both of which keep people in their homes. You could find ways of keeping more people in their homes but they’d almost certainly include bailing out companies, it’s easy to implement and cost effective.

awinder commented on Twitter employees are bringing their own toilet paper to work fortune.com/2022/12/30/tw... · Posted by u/perihelions

2OEH8eoCRo0 · 3 years ago

Why should I care that a tech worker on visa can't keep their high paying job in a rich foreign country? Become a citizen.

Should they be treated differently than everyone else?

awinder · 3 years ago

One does not simply become a citizen, most have to convert from a work visa to a permanent visa (requires wait time + process), and then more wait time before being allowed to apply for citizenship. So there’s workers at twitter who can’t merely say “the boss is crazy, I’m out of here”. They have to line up another job and get their visa in order before they can go. No one is asking you to care or treat people differently, though people might judge you based on the thoroughness of your understanding & compassion for the situation.

awinder commented on Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years marketwatch.com/story/tes... · Posted by u/davidbarker

asfgionio2346 · 3 years ago

I find myself confused about the purpose of stock markets. How can we arrange our society around a system that is so massively irrational? A few years ago Tesla was worth as much as the rest of the car industry put together. Even if you believed Tesla was going to become a perfect monopoly, its valuation still would not have been justified. Now people are acting like the sky is falling when this pipsqueak manufacturer is still (supposedly) worth twice as much as Toyota.

The most spectacular failure I know of is the case of Twitter. We knew the value of the stock to the penny starting in April of last year, but for months it traded at over a 25% discount. Why do we pretend this system of price discovery works when it can't even discover a price that has been printed in newspapers?

awinder · 3 years ago

Because there was the specter of a protracted legal battle to close the Twitter acquisition and that risk (of both time and result) was priced into a 25% discount on the acquisition price. That’s why the stock bumped to 50 on the acquisition news and fell off as the deal became imperiled.

awinder commented on Ask HN: What to do with a coffee plantation with about 8000 trees? · Posted by u/tsingy

zo1 · 3 years ago

One could argue that it's "cosmically inherent" that something you earn through your own labor (of the body that you control/own?) should be yours do with as you please, so long as it doesn't hurt others. If you can't accept that fundamental property, we are quite frankly serfs, which is a few steps away from slaves. Slaves not only didn't own their own body, but they also didn't own the fruits of their labor.

awinder · 3 years ago

You can balance the real dual-interests at play here through progressive taxation, allowing for transfers of wealth that only marginally accelerate society-wide wealth disparity. The slaves/serfs lingo is a little stretched when it applies necessarily to other people, and those other people have had their entire lives to benefit from the wealth of the other person anyways.

awinder commented on As unions decline, inequality rises epi.org/publication/union... · Posted by u/vivekmgeorge

haberman · 3 years ago

Please tell me, how is one supposed to engage with the "argument" that their personal experience and resulting belief is a "propaganda driven falsehood." That's not an argument, it is pure name calling, and doesn't even make sense as this person seems to be basing their beliefs on direct experience from their own professional life.

awinder · 3 years ago

By:

1. Not labeling people who disagree with you as “part of a professional managerial class” / people who don’t want to work (propaganda) 2. Actually citing personal experience (just saying you have personal experience isn’t a debate/argument)

awinder commented on As unions decline, inequality rises epi.org/publication/union... · Posted by u/vivekmgeorge

awinder · 3 years ago

You’re:

1. Not actually detailing your life experience

2. Repeating tropes and stawmanning arguments that others aren’t making

3. Framing people you don’t agree with as “PMC people”, i.e. you’re not engaging with their arguments

Your final sentence applies in spades to how you’re arguing across the thread. Ridiculous.

awinder commented on What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates? novum.substack.com/p/what... · Posted by u/antonomon

antonomon · 3 years ago

It continuing unabated for 13 years is a historical anomaly, however

awinder · 3 years ago

We’ve had 3 bull cycles that lasted around 13 years covering periods in the 50s, 80s and 90s.

https://www.uidaho.edu/-/media/UIdaho-Responsive/Files/Exten...

The +9% average is long-lived and covers periods with drawdowns so no abnormality there.

awinder commented on What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates? novum.substack.com/p/what... · Posted by u/antonomon

awinder · 3 years ago

“All of this has led to weird idiosyncrasies, euphoria, and contradictions. Stocks ballooned, tripling in value since 2009”

This is like 9% compounded for 13 years, which is in line with historic averages.

awinder commented on Recruited for Navy SEALs, Many Sailors Wind Up Scraping Paint nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us... · Posted by u/bookofjoe

ecshafer · 3 years ago

This article is awful and degrading. The overall point seems to be that these people are above these jobs, as they point out "some even have college degrees". Just because they have college degrees they are too good for manual labor? I am sure if they are capable they could move over to one of the other more highly skilled fields within the navy like Intelligence, Nukes, etc. But otherwise this whole article reeks of classism. The entire military basically sells on people doing amazing things, but 99% of people end up scraping paint and fixing trucks, that's just life, and there's nothing wrong with doing those jobs.

awinder · 3 years ago

“Things were different before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In those days, sailors were required to train for a regular Navy profession, known as a rate, before they could attempt the SEAL course. Dropouts from the course could return to the rate they had trained for.”

Pre-2006 you’d basically do as you suggested, you’d make it into intelligence/nukes/etc. and then you’d try out for SEALs. Now you play a <1-in-10 lottery where you have to avoid an overzealous training instructor kicking you while lugging a 300lb log amongst other challenges. If you don’t make it you complete a filler job class under SEALs and you’re stuck.

You’re straw-manning this issue & the challenges detailed. SEALs is hands-on work, no one is making an “I’m-too-good” argument because they went to college. There’s people who almost made it through SEALs who would be immense assets elsewhere in armed forces — and prior to 2006 they would have been.

awinder commented on BlackRock 2023 Outlook [pdf] blackrock.com/corporate... · Posted by u/baal80spam

snake_doc · 3 years ago

Except there are hundreds of billions of dumb money that are managed by very small amount of people, it’s not economically reasonable for them to do their own primary research. They mostly invest into other funds (ie. Some may be BlackRock funds.).

It’s widely accepted that sell side search (like this) reflect on average the market view. As a result, most of these insights on average are likely priced in. You won’t “create alpha” from following them. However, most dumb money just want to track the market, thus it’s perfectly fine for them to follow sell-side research in aggregate.

Also, on your comment comparing BlackRock YTD performance to XLF, that’s not a valuable comparison. XLF composed mostly of banks, which are highly levered (by definition of fractional reserve banking). BlackRock is not a bank, it does not have the same leverage as JP Morgan.

ie. Chase has $3.7T in assets, $3.5T in liabilities (mostly deposits), and $400B in market cap (shareholders equity).

Liabilities to equity is ~8.75.

BlackRock has 115B in assets, 77B in liabilities, ~100B in market cap (shareholders equity).

Liabilities to equity is 0.77.

Leverage is risky, higher risk firms demand higher returns, this is the very foundation of capital asset pricing.

awinder · 3 years ago

Berkshire had a (especially relative to the market) very good year and it’s the highest weighted constituent in XLF. Also a lot of the active fund companies had this same sort of trend where they went about 2x in market cap in a 12-16 month period in 2020-2021 and then gave about half the growth back (or more) in 2022.