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algo_trader commented on Building ultra cheap energy storage for solar PV   austinvernon.substack.com... · Posted by u/theptip
jacquesm · 5 days ago
I've done a lot of spreadsheets on this kind of solution, but on a slightly smaller scale: a single family home. While it will work for a while it is not enough to meaningfully offset the seasonal cycle which is the thing that needs solving. Storing energy for a few days up to two weeks is (relatively) easy, storing it cheaply for up to 6 months is very hard unless you are willing to invest massively offsetting much of your savings. The pile of rock required to heat an average home for a couple of weeks handily outweighs the house itself. And that's without a double conversion, it is used and stays as heat, the idea was to moderate the leakage upwards as a source of heat by blowing air in a controlled manner rather than to convert it again.

So I really hope these guys will succeed where I can't even get it to work on paper, sometimes scale really is a requirement to make something work and this could very well be one of those.

algo_trader · 5 days ago
> I've done a lot of spreadsheets on this kind of solution

As an investor - what RoIC do you want to see when doing initial analysis

(for example, $10M capex per system, with 10,000 systems TAM )

algo_trader commented on GLM-4.5: Agentic, Reasoning, and Coding (ARC) Foundation Models [pdf]   arxiv.org/pdf/2508.06471... · Posted by u/SerCe
starchild3001 · 18 days ago
Really appreciate the depth of this paper; it's a welcome change from the usual model announcement blog posts. The Zhipu/Tsinghua team laid out not just the 'what' but the 'how,' which is where the most interesting details are for anyone trying to build with or on top of these models.

The post-training methodology (Sec 3) is what really stands out to me. The idea of creating specialized 'expert models' for reasoning, agents, and chat, and then distilling their capabilities into a final unified model is a fascinating approach. It feels like a more structured way to solve the "jack of all trades, master of none" problem that can plague generalist models. Instead of just mixing all the data, they're essentially having a generalist learn from a committee of specialists.

A couple of the findings from their RL experiments are pure gold for anyone working in this space. The counter-intuitive result that a single-stage RL process at the full 64K context length outperforms a progressive, multi-stage approach (Fig 6) is a fantastic lesson. I've seen teams assume the opposite would be true. Also, the pragmatic choice to use an XML-like template for function calls to avoid JSON escaping hell (Fig 4) may be a small but brilliant engineering decision that makes a huge difference in practice. Wrangling escaped code inside JSON turns out to be a mess.

The performance on SWE-bench is impressive, putting it in the same league as much larger or proprietary models. What I’d love to see, and maybe others here have thoughts, is whether this hybrid training recipe holds up outside ARC-style evals. For example, do the agentic improvements transfer to messier, real-world workflows where APIs are undocumented, partial failures are common, and user input is full of ambiguity?

algo_trader · 17 days ago
Are all these "post/mid-training tweaks" important if you have a specific domain with abundant/verified/synthesis data and labels?

Can a small team working on ASI/domain-specific stick to scaling 2024-era best practices training stack? Or will they miss massive improvements?

algo_trader commented on South Korea's military has shrunk by 20% in six years as male population drops   channelnewsasia.com/east-... · Posted by u/eagleislandsong
toomuchtodo · 19 days ago
As women have far fewer babies, the U.S. and the world face unprecedented challenges - https://www.npr.org/2025/07/07/nx-s1-5388357/birth-rate-fert... - July 7th, 2025

> Most demographers now say the population bomb has largely fizzled, and some predict that the long-term trend toward a smaller global population, with fewer consumers and a smaller human footprint on the planet, could benefit the environment.

> There appear to be other upsides to declining fertility. Along with growing individual freedom and economic empowerment of women, the U.N. study also found a rapid drop in the number of girls and teenagers giving birth.

> "The decline of the adolescent birth rates has been, I would say, one of the major success stories in global population health over the past three decades," said Vladimíra Kantorová, the U.N.'s chief population scientist.

United Nations World Fertility 2024 Report - https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.deve...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41225389 (additional citations)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40982392 (additional citations)

(scholar of the global demographic system; urbanization is certainly a component in a declining fertility rate, but the primary driver is women choosing to have less children, delay having them, or not having them at all, while having the means to assert those choices)

algo_trader · 19 days ago
> smaller human footprint on the planet, could benefit the environment.

This i highly doubt. Humans are able to increase per capita (resource) consumption at a far faster rate! Old age care/consumption can also grow to infinity

algo_trader commented on South Korea's military has shrunk by 20% in six years as male population drops   channelnewsasia.com/east-... · Posted by u/eagleislandsong
Qem · 19 days ago
> depending on rate of empowerment of women

People attribute it to empowerment of women, but I wonder if it's more correlation than causation. Women empowerment happened in the same time frame there was a large shift towards urbanization. The situation across the world before was like ~80% of people living in rural areas, and ~20% living in cities. Now those proportions are approximately flipped in many places. IIRC cities appear to be a net population sink for most of history, counting on an steady stream of people moving from the countryside each generation to replenish sub-replacement numbers. Raising children "free-ranging" is more straightforward in the countryside. In cities they demand a lot of micromanagement and resources from parents, because car-infested, cramped urban landscape is expensive and hostile to children. So perhaps the causation arrow flows from accelerated urbanization to both women empowerment and sub-replacement fertility rates, not necessarily from women empowerment to sub-replacement rates.

algo_trader · 19 days ago
> but I wonder if it's more correlation than causation.

Fertility fall in rural Africa is far faster than its rate of urbanization

As a quick primer. falling births seem to correlate/caused by:

a. increasing urbanization b. increasing atheism c. increasing women empowerment/education d. increasing incomes

These factors re-enforce each other, and are scale free (we see the same effect at $1/day, $10/day, $100/day etc)

algo_trader commented on Hierarchical Reasoning Model – 1k training samples SoTA reasoning v/s CoT   github.com/sapientinc/HRM... · Posted by u/dreamer7
AIPedant · a month ago
I am still reading the paper, but it is worth noting that this is not an LLM! It is closer to something like AlphaGo, trained only on ARC, Sudoku and mazes. I am skeptical that you could add a bunch of science facts and programming examples without degrading the performance on ARC / etc - frankly it’s completely unclear to me how you would make this architecture into a chatbot, period, but I haven’t thought about it very much.

Comparing the maze/Sudoku results to LLMs rather than maze/Sudoku-specific AIs strikes me as blatantly dishonest. “1k Sudoku training examples” is also dishonest, they generate about a million of them with permutations: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44701264 (see also https://github.com/sapientinc/HRM/blob/main/dataset/build_su... And they seem to have deleted the Sudoku training data! Or maybe they made it private. It used to be here: https://github.com/imone and according to the Git history[1] they moved it here https://github.com/sapientinc but I cannot find it. Might be an innocent mistake; I suspect they got called out for lying about “1000 samples” and are hiding their tracks.

[1] https://github.com/sapientinc/HRM/commit/171e2fcde636bcb7e6c...

algo_trader · a month ago
> not an LLM! closer to something like AlphaGo, trained only on ARC, Sudoku and mazes.

ah! this explains the performance..

What is the conventional wisdom on improving codegen in LLMs? Sample n solutions and verify, or run a more expensive tree search?

I have thoughts on a very elaborate add-a-function-verify-and-rollback testing harness and i wonder if this has been tried

algo_trader commented on GLM-4.5: Reasoning, Coding, and Agentic Abililties   z.ai/blog/glm-4.5... · Posted by u/GaggiX
algo_trader · a month ago
Also released the SLIME post-training recipe and library

https://github.com/THUDM/slime

algo_trader commented on Volvo delivers 5,000th electric semi   electrek.co/2025/06/29/vo... · Posted by u/JumpCrisscross
porphyra · 2 months ago
For some reason, from a purely aesthetic standpoint, even brand new electric trucks in the US look very vintage, with their giant chrome grill and fender flares, compared to European and Asian trucks. [1]

[1] https://www.peterbilt.com/trucks/zero-emission/567EV

algo_trader · 2 months ago
Why are e-trucks like this getting 1/100th of the not-yet-in-mass-production Tesla Semi?

Can i go in and order 100 of these? Are they custom/super-expensive?

algo_trader commented on Battery-electric "Infinity Train" will charge itself using gravity   newatlas.com/transport/fo... · Posted by u/croes
pjc50 · 2 months ago
High-power grid connections are surprisingly expensive. I would expect that it's been done this way because it's now the cheapest non-diesel option.
algo_trader · 2 months ago
This isnt HVDC..

Industrial locomotives are ~10MW and 12kV or similar. So the entire ..err ..drive train is probably $10M? And the regen is free? But you have to step-up and -down to the battery?

Maybe a more informed reader can.. ahem... step in and inform us?

algo_trader commented on Ask HN: Startup getting spammed with PayPal disputes, what should we do?    · Posted by u/june3739
Foofoobar12345 · 3 months ago
They are probably testing stolen/hacked PayPal accounts. Probably doing a dispute to ensure the owners don’t suspect anything is going wrong, until they use it for bigger transactions. Unfortunately with PayPal there’s no way to ascertain ownership of an account (like 3DS).

This used to happen to us, eventually after haggling with PayPay support for over a year on who should bear the cost, we just shut down PayPal payments. Don’t have anything better to offer, sorry.

algo_trader · 3 months ago
Are there services that "guarantee" (or block) transactions for a fee?

In any case, this should be the primary responsibility of the payment service !! The fact it can so casually off load it to the merchants is just bizarre

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KarmaCake day539January 15, 2018
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