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starchild3001 commented on AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem   vincirufus.com/posts/agi-... · Posted by u/vincirufus
starchild3001 · an hour ago
I think this essay lands on a useful framing, even if you don’t buy its every prescription. If we zoom out, history shows two things happening in parallel: (1) brute-force scaling driving surprising leaps, and (2) system-level engineering figuring out how to harness those leaps reliably. GPUs themselves are a good analogy: Moore’s Law gave us the raw FLOPs, but CUDA, memory hierarchies, and driver stacks are what made them usable at scale.

Right now, LLMs feel like they’re at the same stage as raw FLOPs; impressive, but unwieldy. You can already see the beginnings of "systems thinking" in products like Claude Code, tool-augmented agents, and memory-augmented frameworks. They’re crude, but they point toward a future where orchestration matters as much as parameter count.

I don’t think the "bitter lesson" and the "engineering problem" thesis are mutually exclusive. The bitter lesson tells us that compute + general methods win out over handcrafted rules. The engineering thesis is about how to wrap those general methods in scaffolding that gives them persistence, reliability, and composability. Without that scaffolding, we’ll keep getting flashy demos that break when you push them past a few turns of reasoning.

So maybe the real path forward is not "bigger vs. smarter," but bigger + engineered smarter. Scaling gives you raw capability; engineering decides whether that capability can be used in a way that looks like general intelligence instead of memoryless autocomplete.

starchild3001 commented on The Amiga games and demo scene collection   amiga.vision/... · Posted by u/doener
striking · 3 hours ago
The joy of the demoscene is inextricable from the human and physical nature of it.

Yes, you can have AI tools vibe code up "new" 68k assembly for old machines, but you're never going to see it find genuinely new techniques for pushing the limits of the hardware until you give it access to actual hardware. The demoscene pushes the limits so hard that emulators have to be updated after demos are published. That makes it prohibitively expensive and difficult to employ AI to do this work in the manner you describe.

Don't mistake productivity for progress. There is joy in solving hard problems yourself, especially when you're the one who chose the limitations... And remember to sit back and enjoy yourself once in a while.

Speaking of, here's a demo you can sit back and enjoy: https://youtu.be/3aJzSySfCZM

starchild3001 · 3 hours ago
Re: AI. I believe this will still be a human operation, as far as I can see.

Awesome demo! It's a little bit of middle age crisis :), but superbly done! Thank you.

starchild3001 commented on The Amiga games and demo scene collection   amiga.vision/... · Posted by u/doener
egypturnash · 5 hours ago
seriously, has Starchild3001 never looked at the modern indy game scene? Half of it is flooded with people choosing restrictions based on old machines. More consoles than computers, games trying to look like an NES or a PSX are a dime a dozen.
starchild3001 · 4 hours ago
I mostly follow Amiga and C64 (a little bit). I don't follow the platforms you're talking about.
starchild3001 commented on The Amiga games and demo scene collection   amiga.vision/... · Posted by u/doener
acherion · 6 hours ago
> An amiga museum with all the games, artwork, coding technology, music technology etc. Perhaps an AI can be tasked to produce all of this soon. Youtube videos might be an engaging delivery mechanism. A physical museum too can be considered, perhaps as part of Computer History Museum and similar.

Sounds like you haven't been in touch with the Amiga scene in quite a while, if you think the above is something new. Perhaps Amiga / retro museums haven't been set up in your location, but there are heaps of them in Europe, for example. Youtube videos are a dime a dozen, just search 'amiga' on youtube and you will find literally hundreds of channels dedicated to the Amiga and/or Commodore in general. I subscribe to many of them already, and they all provide excellent in depth content for the Amiga, from hardware, to software, to games, to demos.

> AI coding might unlock mass creation of new software, games, demos, music etc. What was once conceived impossible will be very possible and likely abundant soon

Why would game writing / music creation / demos / software be "once conceived impossible"? Kids were doing the very thing in their bedrooms in the 80s and 90s, without AI. What would AI bring to the table nowadays that couldn't be done in the 80s/90s when the Amiga was popular?

People developing for the Amiga were putting their heart and soul into their creations. AI can't replicate that, and it definitely can't improve it, in any sense of the word.

starchild3001 · 4 hours ago
Re: Online content.

I'm well aware of what's available out there as online content (it's no farther than a Google or youtube search).

Do you think what's out there as online content is what's truly possible if we had a million more Amiga enthusiasts?

That's my vision of what's to come in, say, 10-20 yrs. Imagine every Amiga game played and recorded by many (AI) users from start to finish. Every tactic explored, and cool strategies figured out. I for one would watch this.

Imagine vibe coding becoming more and more possible with 68k assembly. And having 1000x Amiga (AI) developers producing cool demo, intro and game material. New material. Novel and cutting edge material. At massive scale.

I believe this is the future we're headed. I for one am very excited about it.

----------

Re: A physical museum.

No, an Amiga or Commodore focus cannot be found anywhere in Silicon Valley or in United States. Even Computer History Museum (CHM) in Silicon Valley has very little Commodore content.

I live <1 mile away from the original Amiga offices in Los Gatos. It's a bit of shame that there's so little Amiga or Commodore in CHM.

starchild3001 commented on The Amiga games and demo scene collection   amiga.vision/... · Posted by u/doener
starchild3001 · 7 hours ago
Amiga forever! Curation first. Two follow ups:

1) An amiga museum with all the games, artwork, coding technology, music technology etc. Perhaps an AI can be tasked to produce all of this soon. Youtube videos might be an engaging delivery mechanism. A physical museum too can be considered, perhaps as part of Computer History Museum and similar.

2) AI coding might unlock mass creation of new software, games, demos, music etc. What was once conceived impossible will be very possible and likely abundant soon -- think of brand new games, and mind blowing new old-style Amiga animations with music.

Of course, this will be only possible with the dedication and efforts of enthusiasts. Thank you!!

starchild3001 commented on Review of Anti-Aging Drugs   scienceblog.com/joshmitte... · Posted by u/XzetaU8
Aurornis · 6 days ago
> appropriate TRT for men with low T

You lost me here since this doesn’t appear in the linked article at all. You seem to be speaking about your own link, not the linked article on Hacker News.

Be especially careful with TRT advice on the internet or from local clinics that push TRT treatments. The definition of “low testosterone” used in the longevity studies is very different than the definition used by TRT clinics looking to grow their customer base.

There was an alarming study recently that showed a high percentage of men on TRT didn’t even have baseline testosterone bloodwork showing a deficiency. The clinics “diagnosed” them based on vague symptoms or questions, which is how they get around the fact that most men seeking TRT are not clinically deficient these days. Taking TRT will suppress natural production of testosterone and can lead to a lifetime need for TRT. Inappropriate dosing (which is common at the TRT clinics who want their customers to feel something early on) can also be net harmful and lead to cardiac complications or even psychiatric side effects like anxiety.

TRT should be a last resort for people with true clinical deficiencies after eliminating the typical contributing factors (alcohol, sleep, obesity, etc). It’s not appropriate to mix into a list of supplements to take because it’s on the short list of medicines that can make you permanently dependent by causing testicular atrophy. This isn’t a concern in patients who already have testicular damage leading to hypogonadism, but it should be a huge concern for the average guy walking into a TRT clinic because they heard it was going to give them an edge or help in the gym.

starchild3001 · 6 days ago
> You seem to be speaking about your own link, not the linked article on Hacker News.

Correct. The hacker-news linked article talks about drugs that made mice live longer, my article talks about drugs that made humans live longer with some supporting evidence from mice studies.

> Be especially careful with TRT advice on the internet or from local clinics that push TRT treatments.

Correct. If you read my article, it repeatedly talks about working with a Dr on this. Ideally an endocrinologist (in USA), or potentially a urologist.

Healthy doses of TRT, where studies found benefits are with hypogonadal men whose low T is verified via two separate tests (<200 or <250 total T). The dosages used (~100 mg / week or less) are nowhere near gym bro doses (~200, 300, 400 mg/week etc).

An endo will ask you to make lifestyle changes first, and resort to supplemental testosterone as a last resort.

> it’s on the short list of medicines that can make you permanently dependent by causing testicular atrophy.

I believe you're factually wrong on this. I know a lot of people personally who stopped TRT successfully, some after being a decade on it.

> It’s not appropriate to mix into a list of supplements to take

This is a non-sensical idea, because supplements are much like drugs except they don't go through the FDA approval proceess. They're simply unregulated drugs with potentially significant sides. You shouldn't take a light view of them.

Actually, if I were to choose between a drug and a supplement for the same problem (such as living longer), I think people should prioritize drugs first as they go through rigorous clinical trials, their side effect profile is well known, there's post-approval drug monitoring.

starchild3001 commented on Review of Anti-Aging Drugs   scienceblog.com/joshmitte... · Posted by u/XzetaU8
starchild3001 · 6 days ago
This is a great discussion on longevity, though the main article focuses heavily on mouse studies. To add to that, I've been thinking about a framework that prioritizes the existing human evidence.

My take, which I wrote about in the linked post, is to use a tiered approach:

1. Top Priority (Human RCTs): Start with what we know works in human randomized trials. This is our most solid ground and includes sustained weight loss, lowering LDL (especially with statins), intensive blood-pressure control, "polypill" strategies, and appropriate TRT for men with a confirmed deficiency. Also in this tier are things with more modest but proven benefits, like flu shots, multivitamins, and specific fish oils.

2. Second Priority (Strong Correlation): Look at interventions with strong positive associations in human studies and/or robust lifespan benefits in mice. This is where things like exercise, Mediterranean diets, social well being, coffee, green tea, fiber, and garlic fit in.

3. Third Priority (Emerging Science): Finally, consider the more experimental options that have shown promise in mice but only have early human signals. This is a long list, including rapamycin, calorie restriction, glycine+NAC, taurine, acarbose, metformin, and NAD+ boosters.

Throughout this process, the goal should be to treat existing medical issues, track what works for you personally (N=1), and always consult with your doctor. Things that are still purely theoretical should wait for better data.

Here's the full post with more detail:

http://mylongevityjourney.blogspot.com/2022/08/a-short-summa...

starchild3001 commented on OpenAI Progress   progress.openai.com... · Posted by u/vinhnx
oinfoalgo · 7 days ago
I don't think it is that surprising.

It will become harder and harder for the average person to gain from newer models.

My 75 year old father loves using Sonnet. He is not asking anything though that he would be able to tell Opus is "better". The answers he gets from the current model are good enough. He is not exactly using it to probe the depths of statistical mechanics.

My father is never going to vibe code anything no matter how good the models get.

I don't think AGI would even give much different answers to what he asks.

You have to ask the model something that allows the latest model to display its improvements. I think we can see, that is just not something on the mind of the average user.

starchild3001 · 7 days ago
Correct. People claim these models "saturate" yet what saturates faster is our ability to grasp what these models are capable of.

I, for one, cannot evaluate the strength of an IMO gold vs IMO bronze models.

Soon coding capabilities might also saturate. It might all become a matter of more compute (~ # iterations), instead of more precision (~ % getting it right the first time), as the models become lightning speed, and they gain access to a playground.

starchild3001 commented on OpenAI Progress   progress.openai.com... · Posted by u/vinhnx
NoahZuniga · 7 days ago
The 135 iq result is on Mensa Norway, while the offline test is 120. It seems probable that similar questions to the one in Mensa are in the training data, so it probably overestimates "general intelligence".
starchild3001 · 7 days ago
If you focus on the year over year jump, not on absolute numbers, you realize that the improvement in public test isn't very different from the improvement in private test.
starchild3001 commented on OpenAI Progress   progress.openai.com... · Posted by u/vinhnx
starchild3001 · 7 days ago
A few data points that highlight the scale of progress in a year:

1. LM Sys (Human Preference Benchmark):

GPT-5 High currently scores 1463, compared to GPT-4 Turbo (04/03/2024) at 1323 -- a 140 ELO point gap. That translates into GPT-5 winning about two-thirds of head-to-head comparisons, with GPT-4 Turbo only winning one-third. In practice, people clearly prefer GPT-5’s answers (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard).

2. Livebench.ai (Reasoning Benchmark with Internet-new Questions):

GPT-5 High scores 78.59, while GPT-4o reaches just 47.43. Unfortunately, no direct GPT-4 Turbo comparison is available here, but against one of the strongest non-reasoning models, GPT-5 demonstrates a massive leap. (https://livebench.ai/)

3. IQ-style Testing:

In mid-2024, best AI models scored roughly 90 on standard IQ tests. Today, they are pushing 135, and this improvement holds even on unpublished, internet-unseen datasets. (https://www.trackingai.org/home)

4. IMO Gold, vibe coding:

1 yr ago, AI coding was limited to smaller code snippets, not to wholly vibe coded applications. Vibe coding and strength in math has many applications across sciences and engineering.

My verdict: Too often, critics miss the forest for the trees, fixating on mistakes while overlooking the magnitude of these gains. Errors are shrinking by the day, while the successes keep growing fast.

u/starchild3001

KarmaCake day293December 9, 2015View Original