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alexfoo commented on Online Safety Act – shutdowns and site blocks   blocked.org.uk/osa-blocks... · Posted by u/azalemeth
foldr · 22 days ago
Let's do some back-of-an-envelope stats on this.

Assuming there are 9 million people in London, that means that 1/45,000 Londoners experience a phone theft on a given day.

We can then (very crudely) estimate the probability that a Londoner has their phone stolen over a ten year period:

    1 - ((1-45000)/45000)^(365*10) = 0.08
So 200 phones a day translates to about a 8% chance of getting your phone stolen over a period of ten years.

I'm obviously not suggesting that the calculation above be taken too seriously. But it shows that 200 phones being stolen a day in a city of 9 million people is consistent with phone theft being a significant but not overwhelming problem.

(The adult population of London is around 7 million, and kids are obviously also victims of phone theft, so you won't get a radically different answer if you look at the population over a certain age.)

alexfoo · 22 days ago
> 1 - ((1-45000)/45000)^(36510) = 0.08

I think you mean:

    1 - ((45000-1)/45000)^(365*10) = 0.08
Whilst it doesn't matter if the exponent is even (such as 3650 above) using (1-45000)/45000 will give a wrong estimation for odd exponents.

alexfoo commented on Shortest-possible walking tour to 81,998 bars in South Korea   math.uwaterloo.ca/tsp/kor... · Posted by u/geeknews
skrebbel · 4 months ago
Yeah but I mean, if everybody goes to the pub by car, does it mean everybody brings a designated driver? Or is this one of those things where everybody drives drunk but pretends nobody does?
alexfoo · 4 months ago
Taxis exist.
alexfoo commented on Order and orient the keys on your keychain   practicalbetterments.com/... · Posted by u/surprisetalk
grahamj · 10 months ago
I remember carrying keys, but I don’t miss it.
alexfoo · 10 months ago
I live in an apartment in London.

In daily/weekly use:

2 x Outer front door keys (shared with apartment above) - one Yale type, one deadbolt type 2 x Apartment front door keys- one Yale type, one deadbolt 1 x Bicycle storage key 2 x Bicycle lock keys

Monthly use is another 5 keys (2 more keys for other bicycle storage plus 2 more bicycle locks, shed door lock)

Even less frequently (but more than yearly) there are another 5 more keys that I’ll need to use.

Keyless would be great but it is pretty impossible right now.

Looking at my key ring I have keys oriented in the same direction and the similar looking keys have plastic “hats” that match the colour of the doors/locks they open.

alexfoo commented on Repainting our app mid-flight   reviewable.io/blog/repain... · Posted by u/earlachromatic
readthenotes1 · a year ago
Is aducation a word? Yeah, it's an advertisement, but it was informative enough for me not to bristle
alexfoo · a year ago
Infomercial is one existing word for it.
alexfoo commented on I spend £8,500 a year to live on a train   metro.co.uk/2024/03/03/sp... · Posted by u/surprisetalk
Daviey · 2 years ago
Compared to the UK where a standard-class rail season ticket for me to get to London (including underground), at £8,272 p/y.. but for that, I also have the luxury of either standing in an overcrowded carriage, or if I am super lucky I get to sit in a seat that smells of urine.
alexfoo · a year ago
The UK has a concept of a BritRail pass for people from outside the UK. It's currently £568 for a month long pass.

That would be £6816 for a year, although (again) "You can use a BritRail Pass if you’re not a UK citizen and have not lived in the UK for the last six months or more.". I guess you'd have to go home before the end of the 6th consecutive month of using the passes otherwise you'd disqualify yourself.

https://www.thetrainline.com/trains/rail-passes/britrail-pas...

The All-Line-Rover would be the version for anyone who does live in the UK: http://www.railrover.org/pages/all-line.html and it is much more expensive.

alexfoo commented on Linux Hits 4% on the Desktop   i.imgur.com/eFFaIh9.png... · Posted by u/throwaway1194
alexfoo · 2 years ago
Finally Year of the Linux Desktop?
alexfoo commented on What's that touchscreen in my room?   laplab.me/posts/whats-tha... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
chefandy · 2 years ago
I was wondering what it was. I only worked on Proviso out of Massachusetts so I never even touched anything that was Netcool proper.
alexfoo · 2 years ago
I think I was in Lowell for a few weeks helping out on some App Packs when I heard about the acquisition. Working with JFK? and another guy with a short nickname that escapes me right now. Wedge?
alexfoo commented on What's that touchscreen in my room?   laplab.me/posts/whats-tha... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
chefandy · 2 years ago
Weird to see some micromuse thing listed as the service listed for 1534. I worked for them back in like 2006 and we got eaten by IBM/Tivoli and I don't believe they kept the name for anything? I always knew nobody really updated those but man, really nobody updates those.
alexfoo · 2 years ago
1534 was the port used by the license manager (elmd - Elan license manager). The bane of many a Netcool installation until we joyfully ripped it out post IBM acquisition.

-Alex (Micromuse 1997 to 2021).

alexfoo commented on It's still easy for anyone to become you at Experian   krebsonsecurity.com/2023/... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
alexfoo · 2 years ago
I’m guessing this will continue to happen until, I dunno, some the execs at Experian continually have their accounts compromised in the same way again and again.
alexfoo commented on Ask HN: What are you passionate about at the moment?    · Posted by u/kurtdev
beingfit · 2 years ago
I’m feeling some envy right now. I’ve tried running…or rather, walks and runs interspersed, at least once a week or more often. But my heart rate shoots up even at a moderate pace of 5mi/h (7.5km/h) to around 140bpm or higher (I’m 50 years old). I just can’t run (actually jog) continuously for more than one minute before breaking into a walk. Otherwise, I workout everyday, mostly cardio and some strength for at least 45 minutes a day, every single day. My weight is in the normal BMI range. I don’t know if this is how it is to be.
alexfoo · 2 years ago
Have you tried Couch to 5k? (C25K)

FWIW I did it a few years back after coming back from an ankle fracture that had stopped me doing any exercise for 6 months. Looking at my Week 1 Day 1 activity on Strava my HR was ~105bpm when initially walking, but then up to 160bpm when running for a minute, and only dropped to ~130bpm when walking for the next minute. This see-saw repeated; up to ~160bpm when running, down to ~130bpm when walking. At the end it dropped from 160bpm to 115bpm over the course of the final 5 minute "cool down" walk. There's quite a "lag" between exercise intensity and HR.

My point is that if you're not regularly running then your CV system is inefficient, and so even walking may put your HR up quite high. If you stick at it it should improve.

I'm 47 and my HR when I go for a run is ~170bpm. If I go for a gentle run I try and keep it below 150bpm, but when I was just getting back into it I'd struggle to keep my HR under 165bpm even on a "gentle" run. As you get fitter (or lighter) you can do the same kind of runs with a lower HR than before. When I really want to push it I can average 180bpm-190bpm for a 5k (although it feels grim at the time).

If you get through a few weeks of C25K and you're still having trouble running for more than a minute or so at a time then I'd go see a doctor. If you're concerned/nervous about the idea of trying C25K with a possibility that there may be something amiss then go and see a doctor about it now.

(This is not medical advice. I am not a doctor.)

u/alexfoo

KarmaCake day358July 19, 2012View Original