I think there's a place for thoughtful dialogue around what this means for software engineering, but I don't think that's going to change anything at this point. If developers just don't want to participate in this new world, for whatever reason, I'm not judging them, but also I don't think the genie is going back in the bottle. There will be no movement to organize labor to protect us and there be no deus ex machina that is going to reverse course on this stuff.
Humanity has possessed nuclear weapons for 80 years and has used them exactly twice in anger, at the very beginning of that span. We can in fact just NOT do things! Not every world-beating technology takes off, for one reason or another. Supersonic airliners. Eugenics. Betamax.
The best time to air concerns was yesterday. The next best time is today. I think we technologists wildly overestimate public understand and underestimate public distrust of our work and of “AI” specifically. We’ve got CEOs stating that LLMs are a bigger deal than nuclear weapons or fire(!) and yet getting upset that the government wants control of their use. We’ve got giddy thinkpieces from people (real example from LinkedIn!) who believe we’ll hit 100% white collar unemployment in 5 years and wrap up by saying they’re “5% nervous and 95% excited”. If that’s what they really think, and how they really feel, it’s psychopathic! Those numbers get you a social scene that’ll make the French Revolution look like a tea party. (“And honestly? I’m here for it.”)
So no, while I _think_ you’re correct, I don’t accept the inevitability of it all. There are possibilities I don’t want to see closed off (maybe data finally really is the new oil, and that’s the basis for a planetary sovereign wealth fund. Maybe every man, woman, and child who ever wrote a book or a program or an internet comment deserves a royalty check in the mail each month!) just yet.
When I engage with AI skeptics and I "ask these people what they're really thinking, and listen" they say something totally absurd, like GPT 3.5-turbo and Opus 4.6 are interchangeable, or they put into question my ability as an engineer, or that I am a "liar" for claiming that an agent can work for an hour unprompted (something I do virtually every day). This isn't even me picking the worst of it, this is pretty much a typical conversation I have on HN, and you can go through my comment history to verify I have not drawn any hyperbole.
That said, I _did_ read your comments history (only because you asked!) and - well, I don't know, you seem very reasonable, but I notice you're upset with people talking about "hallucinations" in code generation from Opus 4.6. Now, I have actually spent some time trying to understand these models (as tool or threat) and that means using them in realistic circumstances. I don't like the "H word" very much, because I am an orthodox Dijkstraist and I hold that anthropomorphizing computers and algorithms is always a mistake. But I will say that like you, I have found that in appropriate context (types, tests) I don't get calls to non-existent functions, etc. However, I have seen: incorrect descriptions of numerical algorithms or their parameters, gaslighting and "failed fix loops" due to missing a "copy the compiled artifact to the testing directory" step, and other things which I consider at least "hallucination-adjacent". I am personally much more concerned about "hallucinations" and bad assumptions smuggled in the explanations provided, choice of algorithms and modeling strategies, etc. because I deal with some fairly subtle domain-specific calculations and (mathematical) models. The should-be domain experts a) aren't always and b) tend to be "enthusiasts" who will implicitly trust the talking genius computer.
For what it's worth, my personal concerns don't entirely overlap the questions I raised way above. I think there are a whole host of reasons people might be reluctant or skeptical, especially given the level of vitriol and FUD being thrown around and the fairly explicit push to automate jobs away. I have a lot of aesthetic objections to the entire LLM-generated corpus, but de gustibus...