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TarasBob commented on Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets   merkley.senate.gov/merkle... · Posted by u/stopbulying
brucehoult · 6 days ago
Making insider/true expert information public more quickly in the form of influencing prices in a toy market is THE ENTIRE POINT of prediction markets.

Read the original papers on them.

http://li.mit.edu/Stuff/CNSE/Paper/Hanson90.pdf

https://www.jstor.org/stable/3216893

https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/insiderbet.pdf

TarasBob · 6 days ago
EXACTLY! We want insiders to participate in prediction markets and profit!
TarasBob commented on Show HN: Terminal-Bench-RL: Training long-horizon terminal agents with RL   github.com/Danau5tin/term... · Posted by u/Danau5tin
TarasBob · 7 months ago
I'm willing to help fund this if the creator is interested. I sent him an email.
TarasBob commented on Solving Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe   louisabraham.github.io/ar... · Posted by u/Labo333
igpay · 2 years ago
Hey all, I'm the author of Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe. I'm currently working with Louis to integrate this solver into the game itself so that people can play against it. I'm hoping to have it released by EOD and will update this comment when it's ready.
TarasBob · 2 years ago
Have you considered making probabilistic Chess or Go? One way to do it is before each move a coin is flipped to decide who’s turn it is.
TarasBob commented on Early Bitcoin Investor Roger Ver Charged with Tax Fraud   justice.gov/opa/pr/early-... · Posted by u/datascienced
repomies69 · 2 years ago
Bitcoin has worked for me all right for 10+ years. What is exactly wrong with it? At times fees have been a bit higher, but overall I would see the protocol as "good enough". For smaller transactions I have been using Lightning Network and it seems to work all right. The fact that Bitcoin hasn't hard forked for whatever reasons is a positive feature, that outweighs the negatives.

You can consider for example Ethereum, which has hard forked numerous times and changed the monetary policy as well multiple times. It just feels quite centralized and controlled by Vitalik. Harder to trust that crap.

TarasBob · 2 years ago
Ethereum is not controlled by Vitalik. Have you actually looked in to how decisions in Ethereum are made?
TarasBob commented on Spot Bitcoin ETF receives official approval from the SEC   cointelegraph.com/news/se... · Posted by u/talboren
TapWaterBandit · 2 years ago
> Miners and node operators can operate on whichever fork they want, but that doesnt mean Coinbase or Fidelity or whoever is going to recognize that fork.

Mate that isn't how it work. If Coinbase or Fidelity don't recognise the real blockchain then they no longer have real bitcoin, they have a forked coin (because they are not on the true bitcoin chain). The Bitcoin chain is determined by consensus of the majority of miners/nodes (not bitcoin holders!) and if they break from that they now have a substantially devalued asset (look up the price of BCH and BTG these days).

You seem to be under a misapprehension that owning the most bitcoin gives an institution or individual power over the network. It does not.

Bitcoin, by definition, cannot exist on two separate chains. If an institution attempted what you are saying all they will have done is reverse alchemy: turned gold (bitcoin) into lead (an unrecognised chain with no mining occurring, no recognition by nodes etc).

TarasBob · 2 years ago
Yes, it’s all about the consensus of majority of the nodes! Not miners.
TarasBob commented on Veritasium: The SAT Question Everyone Got Wrong [video]   youtube.com/watch?v=FUHkT... · Posted by u/goplayoutside
TarasBob · 2 years ago
The way I think about it is imagine the circle in the middle is very tiny compared to the circle that rolls.
TarasBob commented on Quality of care declines after private equity takes over hospitals   medicalxpress.com/news/20... · Posted by u/rntn
turnsout · 2 years ago
Wait, I thought the free market would solve everything! /s
TarasBob · 2 years ago
It does if the government is not involved.
TarasBob commented on GPT-4 Is a Reasoning Engine   every.to/chain-of-thought... · Posted by u/itissid
fallingmeat · 3 years ago
No it's not, it's a language model. It manipulates words. If you want reasoning, you should find the right tool. For example, encode your problem for an SMT solver (like Z3, NuSMV, etc).

Let's say you have an elevator start on floor 11, and another at floor 3. The rules are, they can never occupy the same floor. Is it possible for the first elevator to ever reach floor 2? No, they would have to pass each other.

GPT-4 may be able to come to the conclusion by accident. But not reliably.

TarasBob · 3 years ago
The second elevator goes to floor 1, then the first goes to floor 2. Task accomplished, no?
TarasBob commented on How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever   michalpaszkiewicz.co.uk/b... · Posted by u/anupj
adhesive_wombat · 3 years ago
The thing that is often de-emphasised in the presentation of the problem, in order to make it seem more mysteriously paradoxical, is that the presenter knows where the car is and this knowledge is always used perfectly. If the question always ended with "remember: Monty knows where the car is and will use this information", it would be more obvious.

Imagine a universe with many simultaneous Monty Hall clones playing at once in many studios, where Monty doesn't know and opens another door at random. If that door has the car behind it, Monty and contestant are both shot in the head and the studio burned down and erased from all records. This bloody culling of branches of the probabilities is the same as effected by giving Monty the knowledge and telling him to act on it.

TarasBob · 3 years ago
In the scenario where they are shot that you described, it is still better to switch!

u/TarasBob

KarmaCake day34June 16, 2020View Original