I'm a firm believer in technological progress, but not so fond of group-think hype trains. The LLM/diffusion breakthrough(s) are huge, but they aren't what their rabid fans/neurotic critics are thinking.
I'm not clear how the bond markets should behave if they say expect agi in five years. Do long bonds go up or down?
Thinking about it long bond should mostly reflect the rate of inflation which depends much more on monetary policy than tech. Like after WW1, Germany and the US had much the same tech but Germany had hyperinflation and the US very little because Germany printed a lot of money and the US was on the gold standard.
The equity markets seem quite keen on NVDA stock though.
I wonder how they react to expected inflation, and how to build that in.
Official numbers say inflation has been 3% since Trump got in office in 2025. We’re seeing > 30% across the board on our bills, and GDP “growth” statistics imply inflation well above 3% (e.g., last quarter growth in the US was entirely due to increased health care spending).
I don't believe it'll work for anything that doesn't have a tight feedback loop. So while it can replace a lot of software engineers, it doesn't seem plausible to me that it would make a significant difference in other engineering industries.
Nothing new here, that's basically what the luddites complained about: the machines that replaced them output worse quality garments and sent them all to the streets. It only benefitted the owners. Capital will always seek to rid itself of its dependence on labor, until it eventually succeeds...
And the buyers. As a ballpark estimate, it would take around 50 hours of human labor to produce a shirt by hand, fabric plus sewing, versus about an hour of human labor by industrial machines. That lowers the cost greatly, which most consumers demonstrably value over custom tailoring.
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I'm a firm believer in technological progress, but not so fond of group-think hype trains. The LLM/diffusion breakthrough(s) are huge, but they aren't what their rabid fans/neurotic critics are thinking.
Dead Comment
Thinking about it long bond should mostly reflect the rate of inflation which depends much more on monetary policy than tech. Like after WW1, Germany and the US had much the same tech but Germany had hyperinflation and the US very little because Germany printed a lot of money and the US was on the gold standard.
The equity markets seem quite keen on NVDA stock though.
Official numbers say inflation has been 3% since Trump got in office in 2025. We’re seeing > 30% across the board on our bills, and GDP “growth” statistics imply inflation well above 3% (e.g., last quarter growth in the US was entirely due to increased health care spending).
Default spread reflects... well the likelihood of default.
Cost of debt = rf rate + default spread
And the buyers. As a ballpark estimate, it would take around 50 hours of human labor to produce a shirt by hand, fabric plus sewing, versus about an hour of human labor by industrial machines. That lowers the cost greatly, which most consumers demonstrably value over custom tailoring.
Dead Comment