For those technically inclined, look up Ekman transport. And if you rabbit hole far enough, you'll encounter one of the most awe inspiring units of measurement, the Sverdrup.
As an aside, Panama is a particularly sensitive point in climate models I've run.
(Disclosure that I manage a climate research group)
As a fan of a sport that greatly relies on accurate weather forecasts with an interest in weather models my impression is that more supercomputer budget isn’t necessarily the issue (eg., more granular models can be less accurate) but the lack of data on the initial state is… Things like snow on mountains, soil conditions, vegetation, soil humidity and simply the problem of just having relatively few data-points makes stuff tricky… That stuff changes with season. I have seen some magic improvements coming from small shop companies tweaking the models here and there a bit - massively impressed.
Now, running these simulations even further into the future - I have my doubt much useful prediction is gonna come out.
Self taught climate junky here, so the Ekman Transport thing is a gem, which explains things I have seen inreal time watching huricanes leave there fingerprint right on the oceans surface
and will be watching for the Panama upwelling more carefully, but my eye has been drawn to the intersectiin of the labrador current and the gulf stream this year, which looks off a bit with the labrador erratic and the gulf stream tending a bit south.
Also surface currents are exceptionaly visible in the artic sea ice, right now
Thanks -- answers the correlation question provoked in any climate dilettante like me:
> Upwelling began significantly earlier during El Niño versus La Niña, but duration and minimum temperature did not differ significantly between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states ...
Reading about the Azores high, Hadley cells, etc. on Wikipedia is incredibly illuminating. Hadley cells and related phenomena combined with the Coriolis effect explain a bunch of weather phenomena: trade winds and westerlies, the jet stream, hurricane formation, global rainfall patterns.
The ocean generates 50 percent of the oxygen we need, absorbs 30 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions and captures 90 percent of the excess heat generated by these emissions.
Are there any clathrate-gun [1] style hypothesis that predict the entire gas exchange system could fall into runaway collapse? I'd love to read up on them, if so.
Slow changes, a return to a Cretaceous-style climate, etc. are a very different story than an "overnight" exponential and unstoppable Venusification of the planet.
Slowly rising sea levels in Miami vs one day you wake up and can't breathe anymore. Very different situations.
To your second point, the average reader is not a scientist (wrt this topic, at least). Scientists equate proving with knowing. To the average reader, however, there is little correlation between what we know and what we’ve proved.
The scientists don’t know why it happened, because they haven’t proved why it happened.
I’d wager that the average reader knows perfectly well why it happened.
Because the subject has been artfully politicized to an audience that will reject anything they are told to reject.
Fossil fuel barons are funding this so they can lord it over us up to the end and then they retreat to their bunkers. It would make for a great thriller of a movie but it's a shit timeline to actually live through.
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As an aside, Panama is a particularly sensitive point in climate models I've run.
(Disclosure that I manage a climate research group)
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.h...
and will be watching for the Panama upwelling more carefully, but my eye has been drawn to the intersectiin of the labrador current and the gulf stream this year, which looks off a bit with the labrador erratic and the gulf stream tending a bit south. Also surface currents are exceptionaly visible in the artic sea ice, right now
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
> Upwelling began significantly earlier during El Niño versus La Niña, but duration and minimum temperature did not differ significantly between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states ...
Slow changes, a return to a Cretaceous-style climate, etc. are a very different story than an "overnight" exponential and unstoppable Venusification of the planet.
Slowly rising sea levels in Miami vs one day you wake up and can't breathe anymore. Very different situations.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmon_run
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob
Blob is perfectly good word, and much more precise in this case than 'mass'.
The people tasked with knowing why it happens dont know why it happens
The scientists don’t know why it happened, because they haven’t proved why it happened.
I’d wager that the average reader knows perfectly well why it happened.
Fossil fuel barons are funding this so they can lord it over us up to the end and then they retreat to their bunkers. It would make for a great thriller of a movie but it's a shit timeline to actually live through.