To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition.
The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla.
While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying his stock like crazy. And not just the "dumb money" retail investors but also the "professional" institutional investors who do this for a living. They now hold 70% of TSLA stock.
The P/E of TSLA is around 130. The P/E of GM, Ford and Toyota are all less than 10. In other words, TSLA is outrageously overpriced --- by a factor of at least 10. If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? I don't think so.
Tesla's stock price and Musk's business persona are dangling by a thread being held up by these "professional investors". In my opinion, out of fear for their upcoming performance bonuses.
Once this thread is cut, Musk will own one of the worst self inflicted financial disasters in the history of business.
>If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius?
Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)
In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company
Only $60 billion??? You're selling him way short.
At it's peak earlier this year, Tesla market cap was $1.5 TRILLION --- valued at more than all the world's major auto manufacturer's COMBINED. All while commanding only about 4% of unit sales.
Can you say O-U-T-R-A-G-E-O-U-S-L-Y over priced?
Since then, TSLA has lost almost half it's value --- and by any sane measure, it is still OUTRAGEOUSLY over priced.
I understand his shares are collateral for his various other ventures ( and most likely personal expenses ) - a Tesla stock crash might have other consequences
Tesla stock buyers are buying it for future promise, thus the value. The other car makers aren't innovating as much so there isn't any perceived future to pull forward and buy.
The disaster you are expecting is just your wishful thinking, if you look around the web, there is an alternate reality that says the direct opposite from you.
The reality is that nobody knows what the future will be. Not the person you're replying to, not the investors, not you, not me.
But my gut tells me it's more likely to be the speculative investors who are engaging in wishful thinking. I haven't seen any real reason to suspect otherwise, even before the events of the last couple of years.
It seems more like he simply doesn't care very much about the money side of things. I.e. he simply values what he's doing ("fixing" government, championing the current tone of the right, etc), and believes the business-side impact is worth it. He also may believe that the long-term impact isn't as bad as it seems because this all might enlarge the right-wing part of his customer base.
Conservatives by definition are not prone to paradigm shifts.
I own an EV truck and I simply cannot comprehend the animus from “truck guys”. Here is a vehicle made in a U.S. factory, powered by 100% US energy, no foreign oil, with towing capacity, torque and top speed that puts legacy vehicles to shame.
But for reasons that only make sense inside their political bubble, these trucks are threats to their way of life.
Musk’s concept vehicles with nothing but flat screens that promise to take the burden of driving away from us entirely are never going to catch on with heartland Americans.
IMO if Musk serious about going to mars, being mere richest 100 billionaire from wildly overhyped meme Tesla stock simply isn't enough. The smart play IS what he's doing right now... go for government power and get trillions, not just any government, but US government with trillions to extract. Of course that assumes he can secure his influence medium-long term, but dumb execution = doesn't look like he can survive next 4 years with how many enemies he's making.
The US, for all its "free market" pretensions, doesn't really do capitalism very well.
What people are now seeing in China, with the rise of more than a half-dozen EV companies in competition with each other, would be impossible in the US. We've got nascent protectionism, total non-enforcement of anti-trust laws (and a very slow and very cowed judiciary,) a complex+selective regulatory environment, and industrial policies that shift with the weather. American manufacturing firms like Tesla and US Steel no longer know how to compete on the merits. And big tech, like big pharma, is a game where small firms are inevitably bought before they can possibly threaten the entrenched major players.
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“China had a plan when they let Tesla have a fully owned factory. They wanted the technology and the knowledge and experience. With that came a risk China would take that technology and build better stuff,” said shareholder Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. “That’s exactly what they’re doing. Now they’ve got really competitive vehicles, really competitive technology and the vehicles are cheaper.”
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This is what Beijing government did on high speed railway system. Global railway manufactures were asked to hand over their technology, then they can begin to build, ship, and run their rolling stocks on Chinese railway. Beijing did this in early 2000s, and now they dominated the high speed railway standards in many countries.
Is there a chance BYD would be willing to share its 5 minutes battery technology with other makers? I feel that could bolster the EV market, especially where people don't have charging capabilities at home.
sight another mainstream article pointing how Tesla will fail, they've been against him since 2017 even before he was somebody, now his track record is undeniable and still they are painting this cynical picture. I'm tired of mainstream media.
Readit News
The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla.
While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying his stock like crazy. And not just the "dumb money" retail investors but also the "professional" institutional investors who do this for a living. They now hold 70% of TSLA stock.
The P/E of TSLA is around 130. The P/E of GM, Ford and Toyota are all less than 10. In other words, TSLA is outrageously overpriced --- by a factor of at least 10. If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? I don't think so.
Tesla's stock price and Musk's business persona are dangling by a thread being held up by these "professional investors". In my opinion, out of fear for their upcoming performance bonuses.
Once this thread is cut, Musk will own one of the worst self inflicted financial disasters in the history of business.
Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)
Only $60 billion??? You're selling him way short.
At it's peak earlier this year, Tesla market cap was $1.5 TRILLION --- valued at more than all the world's major auto manufacturer's COMBINED. All while commanding only about 4% of unit sales.
Can you say O-U-T-R-A-G-E-O-U-S-L-Y over priced?
Since then, TSLA has lost almost half it's value --- and by any sane measure, it is still OUTRAGEOUSLY over priced.
The disaster you are expecting is just your wishful thinking, if you look around the web, there is an alternate reality that says the direct opposite from you.
But my gut tells me it's more likely to be the speculative investors who are engaging in wishful thinking. I haven't seen any real reason to suspect otherwise, even before the events of the last couple of years.
If you look around the web, you will see this alternate reality changing rapidly.
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/18/another-leading-us-bank...
Indeed, they're buying into Musk's deep vaporware product line.
I think the robots really took the cake. He wasn't even trying anymore.
Yes, that certainly does explain his substantial history of charity, benevolence and ethical business practices.
https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/12/elon_musk_appeals_voi...
I own an EV truck and I simply cannot comprehend the animus from “truck guys”. Here is a vehicle made in a U.S. factory, powered by 100% US energy, no foreign oil, with towing capacity, torque and top speed that puts legacy vehicles to shame.
But for reasons that only make sense inside their political bubble, these trucks are threats to their way of life.
Musk’s concept vehicles with nothing but flat screens that promise to take the burden of driving away from us entirely are never going to catch on with heartland Americans.
What people are now seeing in China, with the rise of more than a half-dozen EV companies in competition with each other, would be impossible in the US. We've got nascent protectionism, total non-enforcement of anti-trust laws (and a very slow and very cowed judiciary,) a complex+selective regulatory environment, and industrial policies that shift with the weather. American manufacturing firms like Tesla and US Steel no longer know how to compete on the merits. And big tech, like big pharma, is a game where small firms are inevitably bought before they can possibly threaten the entrenched major players.
And BYD had a leg up...
Anyway, didn’t Tesla give away these patents?
https://medium.com/@mk_26304/the-genius-behind-teslas-patent...
Maybe Tesla short sellers will make a fortune.
https://youtu.be/_SKaBwmHq9Y?si=tUMKzL9X_VNc6Pj_