Apologies for the headline, but I've been tracking H5N1's evolution closely (see my submission history for ongoing coverage).
What makes this notable is the speed and scope of adaptation: In January this was just another bird virus. By March it was in cows, then infected a dairy worker, and now we're seeing it maintain airborne transmission in ferrets while being 100% lethal to them. Yet the human case was mild.
This ties directly to what we're seeing now with 8 poultry workers infected in Washington and 15 dairy workers in California. In less than a year, H5N1 has gone from a bird problem to widespread mammalian spread with increasing human spillover.
When one of the leading researchers calls it 'one of the most pathogenic viruses' he's seen in ferrets, while it remains relatively mild in humans, it's a clear sign of ... something
Worth watching where this Bird Flu thing goes if nothing else. I expect not to hear much about it until after the election though.
It also depends on the density and mobility of your host population.
Ebola kills too quickly for hosts to move around and spread it, but that's in small villages in the jungle. What if there's just enough time for the host to take a crowded train and attend a Presidential campaign rally with tens of thousands of other people before feeling too sick? This might be a better strategy for an ambitious virus in the post-Covid world than a slowly escalating illness that just makes people call in sick and stay home.
I’m sorry for the ferrets, but can someone explain the significance of that lethality to humans? Other than those with pet ferrets? Are they a good proxy to humans that I wasn’t aware of?
> Ferrets are a common model for studying how influenza viruses that primarily affect birds are able to adapt to mammals, a topic that Kawaoka and his colleagues at UW–Madison’s Influenza Research Institute investigate since such a jump could trigger an influenza pandemic.
Given that it’s already in our wastewater, and nobody is presenting with symptoms (except 1 guy in Missouri - and his family was exposed and didn’t develop symptoms), it would seem as though it’s not apocalyptic.
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What makes this notable is the speed and scope of adaptation: In January this was just another bird virus. By March it was in cows, then infected a dairy worker, and now we're seeing it maintain airborne transmission in ferrets while being 100% lethal to them. Yet the human case was mild.
This ties directly to what we're seeing now with 8 poultry workers infected in Washington and 15 dairy workers in California. In less than a year, H5N1 has gone from a bird problem to widespread mammalian spread with increasing human spillover.
When one of the leading researchers calls it 'one of the most pathogenic viruses' he's seen in ferrets, while it remains relatively mild in humans, it's a clear sign of ... something Worth watching where this Bird Flu thing goes if nothing else. I expect not to hear much about it until after the election though.
A sample of the virus taken from the worker was 100% lethal in ferrets, though it spread inefficiently and does not appear to be continuing to spread.
Ebola kills too quickly for hosts to move around and spread it, but that's in small villages in the jungle. What if there's just enough time for the host to take a crowded train and attend a Presidential campaign rally with tens of thousands of other people before feeling too sick? This might be a better strategy for an ambitious virus in the post-Covid world than a slowly escalating illness that just makes people call in sick and stay home.
Madagaskar staying safe is not good enough IRL.
> Ferrets are a common model for studying how influenza viruses that primarily affect birds are able to adapt to mammals, a topic that Kawaoka and his colleagues at UW–Madison’s Influenza Research Institute investigate since such a jump could trigger an influenza pandemic.
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