It doesn't have to be credible. It just has to be noise.
The West can push back. Here's a 2023 list of separatist movements within Russia.[1] Most of these are small and weak, but with outside support, pieces of Russia might be destabilized.
St. Petersburg/Leningrad oblast has potential, because it's close to Europe.
With Finland and Estonia both in NATO, access to St. Peterburg is available. The Russian military is rather busy with Ukraine, and there might not be enough troops available to quickly suppress an internal revolt.
This sort of hybrid warfare does not work in non-free societies. No, the strategy that works is shipping Ukraine a series of rocket artillery with gradually increasing range to target oil infrastructure in the interior. Oh, and sanctions that actually prevent military engineering, such as on machine tools.
(edit: if you actually want to peel territory off Russian control, you could start with the satellite states in the caucasus, or the weird Russian exclave in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria )
This is more like trying to fight fire with cancer - not effective and likely to backfire.
Russia is not going to come apart, especially not areas close to the capital. And if it did, you would have thermonuclear weapons in the hands of rando’ nobodies.
There is no need to do more than park the might of the NATO military along the borders and watch the Russian army die in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is waged in Excel and it is an equation with the expected outcome of destroying their military, equipment and personnel. Dead men won't have children, so the more of them die there the weaker Russia will be in the decades to come.
> Dead men won't have children, so the more of them die there the weaker Russia will be in the decades to come.
Sadly it seems this is Putin's goal as well. What we are seeing is looking more and more like a mass genocide of Russia's undesirables by means of Forever War, with any further territorial gains as a nice bonus. And with all forms of dissent ground into the dust, and a global market more than happy to keep buying his oil, he can continue at this pace indefinitely.
Given the past couple years' events in Ukraine, separatism or succession might look pretty unattractive to Russians.
A far more enticing scenario would be a second Wagner Group Rebellion...one that was competently organized and lead, and successfully replaced the current regime. Putin most certainly remembers how disinterested both his citizens and his military were in opposing the tiny, ragtag Wagner Group's march toward Moscow.
Don't hold your breath for that, steps have been taken that should prevent it in future. puttin' ain't the smartest currently, but he still has some chops form his KGB career and is paranoid beyond wildest imagination.
Anybody who posed any sort of real threat has been murdered either by throwing out of some high windows or just whole family with kids slaughtered for show.
People in the west don't grok how downtrodden russian population is, for centuries, cca continuously. Thats why democracy didn't work there, people let wolves do whatever they wanted since nobody understood that you actually have to stand up to them, so we are where we are. Military comes from the same population, just worse characters.
There ain't no easy solution that we would like. They are not rational now and I don't think they will be till puttin' dies, and who knows what other clown will take the helm. They don't keep sharpest most rational folks at top levels, and next guy won't be somebody from lower ranks.
Farage can only theoretically be elected; in practice, he's never even won his own seat, and his party has had a high of one (out of 650) constituencies, but even that was as a result of someone defecting from a different party.
I'm not even sure if he made a difference about Brexit vs. Johnson.
> Discrediting Putin online will have zero effect on Russian politics.
Discrediting Putin online will have zero effect on Russian politics because the people already know he's shit. The issue is that a.) they can't do much about it, and b.) many actually support the invasion.
>St. Petersburg/Leningrad oblast has potential, because it's close to Europe. With Finland and Estonia both in NATO, access to St. Peterburg is available. The Russian military is rather busy with Ukraine, and there might not be enough troops available to quickly suppress an internal revolt
You have to be absolutely delusional to believe St Petersburg would be seceding. It's arguably even more imperialistic than than Moscow itself, and it is managed by the staunchest Putin loyalists (Current governor, Beglov, is a full-on militarist and Putin lieutenant since the 90s).
> Here's a 2023 list of separatist movements within Russia
>> Sakha: Sakha or Yakut separatism seeks the creation of an independent Yakutian state. The primary cause of Yakut separatism is economic exploitation by the federal government.
Tell me you never looked at the map without telling me anything.
> Most of these are small and weak, but with outside support, pieces of Russia might be destabilized
Ah, yes, when the Free World (tm) doing this it is the Right Thing (tm). It's only when whose untermenschen not from the Free World (tm) is doing exactly the same then it's totally not the Right Thing (tm).
> With Finland and Estonia both in NATO, access to St. Peterburg is available. The Russian military is rather busy with Ukraine, and there might not be enough troops available to quickly suppress an internal revolt.
I wouldn't even bet my pumpkin latte what if Russia would 'support from the outside' some separatism movements you would scream bloody murder.
It's always fascinating to see people actively inciting a war, while comfortably sitting an ocean away from any consequences.
Isn't it obvious that the West, particularly the US, as their decisions are most influential, does not want to fully push back? By "fully" I mean desiring Russia's collapse. That’s why, even after two years, they haven't provided jet fighters (yet), nor have they permitted the use of their weapons to target Russia more extensively (only on borders with Kharkiv after 2 years of war). Actions speak louder than words. This behavior is clearly reactive, enough weapons are provided to maintain the status quo, ensuring that Russia does not advance further, but not enough for Ukrainians to alter the current situation on the battlefield. If the US wanted to, they could supply Ukraine with enough weapons to defeat Russia on the battlefield. But that’s not the goal, it’s not about Ukraine winning, but about not losing and preventing Russia from winning. A complete defeat of Russia is contrary to US interests, anarchy and chaos in a nuclear state would be far more dangerous, especially given that regions like Tajikistan have significant potential for terrorism (consider how ISIS started). Such a scenario would likely push Russia closer to becoming a Chinese vassal, which is against US interests.
If you believe that a genuine democracy could emerge from that chaos, then you don't understand Russia at all. The deep state there is as entrenched, if not more so, than Putin, and it holds enough power and influence to prevent any truly democratic force from emerging. There is no real opposition left after Navalny's death.
A bit of an unfortunate first 3 paragraphs resulting from the writing style (emphasis mine):
> A network of Russia-based websites masquerading as local American newspapers is pumping out fake stories as part of an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election, a BBC investigation can reveal.
> A former Florida police officer who relocated to Moscow is one of the key figures behind it.
> It would have been a bombshell report - if it was true.
> [...]
I had to do a double take before I realised that the emphasised paragraph was referring to the following text yet-to-be-read and not to the preceding opening paragraphs.
If you go on Tik Tok, sometimes you see fake French news, with the proper setting, format, voices, and sometimes faces.
It's quite believable, especially on a platform where you scroll mindlessly.
But if you look for the bit online, you will not find it on the official TV channel website because it never happened.
I'm used to my gov and American propaganda, but they are rarely faking the whole thing, mostly selectively presenting a certain truth or point of view.
That's new to me: completely fabricated, sophisticated facts and media.
The thing Russians never understood after 1989 is that nobody is going to be marching on Moscow. Even Eastern European countries do not care about Russia. It is seen as a failed neighbouring state with nothing to offer. They lied to the West and used all opportunities offered to them to wage wars and weaken Western democracies instead of improving the living conditions of their own population. If you think this is all propaganda, compare the numbers of Russians migrating to the West to the numbers of Westerners migrating to Russia after 1989. Almost nobody wants to go and live there. It's a shithole. A dangerous shithole that keeps murdering people wholesale.
The only reason the Russian economy is weak is Putin. He could have easily democratized and worked with other Western nations on infrastructure and improving life for his citizens, instead he continues to subjugate, propagandize, and toss them into his military meat grinder like Stalin. He thinks the war economy will make Russia prosper, instead he’s killing off his next generation of men to improve the country. Russia has bountiful land and resources and wastes them on this crap.
Readit News
The West can push back. Here's a 2023 list of separatist movements within Russia.[1] Most of these are small and weak, but with outside support, pieces of Russia might be destabilized. St. Petersburg/Leningrad oblast has potential, because it's close to Europe. With Finland and Estonia both in NATO, access to St. Peterburg is available. The Russian military is rather busy with Ukraine, and there might not be enough troops available to quickly suppress an internal revolt.
[1] https://www.aalep.eu/major-secessionist-movements-russia
This sort of hybrid warfare does not work in non-free societies. No, the strategy that works is shipping Ukraine a series of rocket artillery with gradually increasing range to target oil infrastructure in the interior. Oh, and sanctions that actually prevent military engineering, such as on machine tools.
(edit: if you actually want to peel territory off Russian control, you could start with the satellite states in the caucasus, or the weird Russian exclave in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria )
I'm not sure you necessarily want to fight fire with fire?
Russia is not going to come apart, especially not areas close to the capital. And if it did, you would have thermonuclear weapons in the hands of rando’ nobodies.
The list is interesting as the base for the scission of Russia once the West wins the war, though.
Sadly it seems this is Putin's goal as well. What we are seeing is looking more and more like a mass genocide of Russia's undesirables by means of Forever War, with any further territorial gains as a nice bonus. And with all forms of dissent ground into the dust, and a global market more than happy to keep buying his oil, he can continue at this pace indefinitely.
A far more enticing scenario would be a second Wagner Group Rebellion...one that was competently organized and lead, and successfully replaced the current regime. Putin most certainly remembers how disinterested both his citizens and his military were in opposing the tiny, ragtag Wagner Group's march toward Moscow.
Anybody who posed any sort of real threat has been murdered either by throwing out of some high windows or just whole family with kids slaughtered for show.
People in the west don't grok how downtrodden russian population is, for centuries, cca continuously. Thats why democracy didn't work there, people let wolves do whatever they wanted since nobody understood that you actually have to stand up to them, so we are where we are. Military comes from the same population, just worse characters.
There ain't no easy solution that we would like. They are not rational now and I don't think they will be till puttin' dies, and who knows what other clown will take the helm. They don't keep sharpest most rational folks at top levels, and next guy won't be somebody from lower ranks.
Discrediting Putin online will have zero effect on Russian politics.
I'm not even sure if he made a difference about Brexit vs. Johnson.
Discrediting Putin online will have zero effect on Russian politics because the people already know he's shit. The issue is that a.) they can't do much about it, and b.) many actually support the invasion.
You have to be absolutely delusional to believe St Petersburg would be seceding. It's arguably even more imperialistic than than Moscow itself, and it is managed by the staunchest Putin loyalists (Current governor, Beglov, is a full-on militarist and Putin lieutenant since the 90s).
>> Sakha: Sakha or Yakut separatism seeks the creation of an independent Yakutian state. The primary cause of Yakut separatism is economic exploitation by the federal government.
Tell me you never looked at the map without telling me anything.
> Most of these are small and weak, but with outside support, pieces of Russia might be destabilized
Ah, yes, when the Free World (tm) doing this it is the Right Thing (tm). It's only when whose untermenschen not from the Free World (tm) is doing exactly the same then it's totally not the Right Thing (tm).
> With Finland and Estonia both in NATO, access to St. Peterburg is available. The Russian military is rather busy with Ukraine, and there might not be enough troops available to quickly suppress an internal revolt.
I wouldn't even bet my pumpkin latte what if Russia would 'support from the outside' some separatism movements you would scream bloody murder.
It's always fascinating to see people actively inciting a war, while comfortably sitting an ocean away from any consequences.
A) inhumane
B) violation of all proclaimed western values
C) mad dangerous
Isn't it obvious that the West, particularly the US, as their decisions are most influential, does not want to fully push back? By "fully" I mean desiring Russia's collapse. That’s why, even after two years, they haven't provided jet fighters (yet), nor have they permitted the use of their weapons to target Russia more extensively (only on borders with Kharkiv after 2 years of war). Actions speak louder than words. This behavior is clearly reactive, enough weapons are provided to maintain the status quo, ensuring that Russia does not advance further, but not enough for Ukrainians to alter the current situation on the battlefield. If the US wanted to, they could supply Ukraine with enough weapons to defeat Russia on the battlefield. But that’s not the goal, it’s not about Ukraine winning, but about not losing and preventing Russia from winning. A complete defeat of Russia is contrary to US interests, anarchy and chaos in a nuclear state would be far more dangerous, especially given that regions like Tajikistan have significant potential for terrorism (consider how ISIS started). Such a scenario would likely push Russia closer to becoming a Chinese vassal, which is against US interests.
If you believe that a genuine democracy could emerge from that chaos, then you don't understand Russia at all. The deep state there is as entrenched, if not more so, than Putin, and it holds enough power and influence to prevent any truly democratic force from emerging. There is no real opposition left after Navalny's death.
Dead Comment
> A network of Russia-based websites masquerading as local American newspapers is pumping out fake stories as part of an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election, a BBC investigation can reveal.
> A former Florida police officer who relocated to Moscow is one of the key figures behind it.
> It would have been a bombshell report - if it was true.
> [...]
I had to do a double take before I realised that the emphasised paragraph was referring to the following text yet-to-be-read and not to the preceding opening paragraphs.
> The following would have been a bombshell report - if it were true.
It's quite believable, especially on a platform where you scroll mindlessly.
But if you look for the bit online, you will not find it on the official TV channel website because it never happened.
I'm used to my gov and American propaganda, but they are rarely faking the whole thing, mostly selectively presenting a certain truth or point of view.
That's new to me: completely fabricated, sophisticated facts and media.
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