Would be nice if we could just recognize Taiwan as an independent country.
I realize there are good reasons not to do so right now -- RoC itself still says on paper they own all of China, and the West is still too dependent on Chinese manufacturing -- but it would be good to move towards recognizing reality.
You start out in 1972 by saying, "One China, One China." By 2016 you can't say "One China"—that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like “the close economic, political and security ties between Taiwan and the US” and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now that you're talking about permanent training missions, and all these things you're talking about are totally regional stability things and a byproduct of them is the PRC gets hurt worse than the KMT. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the Taiwan problem one way or the other. You follow me—because obviously sitting around saying, "these are the commitments we made" is much more abstract than even the training mission thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "One China"
The RoC releasing its claim on the rest of China would be a de-facto declaration of independence as well since it wound cease to be the rump state of the country founded in 1912 and become something else.
Turning Taiwan into another Ukraine? After a few years, the U.S. might lose interest in Taiwan, and the Taiwanese would pay with their lives. Most Taiwanese just want to go on with their lives and maintain the status quo.
Permanently stationing US troops on Taiwan is a very different strategy from what the US did with Ukraine. It says we are willing to put our troops in harms way in the event of a Chinese attack on or invasion of Taiwan.
Getting crushed betweem super powers is a nightmare. Once the elite starts to align with one super power or the other rather than their constituents you are in for a very bad time.
I read that China would interpret such an action as a declaration of independence and threatens with invasion in case Taiwan does so.
Similarly to how China threatened Hongkong if there had been any democratic reforms by the British. That does not hinder China apologists now from bringing up the lack of democracy under british rule.
What you’re proposing is the same as the US recognizing the independence of Québec, when its people themselves haven’t declared independence.
The Taiwanese first and foremost decide their status, and they want to maintain the status quo. We can’t force another people to declare their own independence when they don’t want to.
Seems the war-mongering attitude of American citizens is really high in today's world. Peace is spat upon and treated with contempt - planned coups/bombings/large number of non-american fatalities is far better! More bonuses for the C-suite executives (and main shareholders) of the American War Industry!
Kindly recognize Palestine as a separate state according to United Nations Resolution 181, before you recognize Taiwan and kick-start yet another war.
I think as long as an invasion of Taiwan looks _difficult_, and the overwhelming likely hood that invading Taiwan will leave Taiwan a smoking crater, that is enough to keep China from invading it. China benefits tremendously economically from trading with Taiwan and they aren't going to throw that way over national pride, _as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence_.
>Would be nice if we could just recognize Taiwan as an independent country.
Trump, as president-elect in late 2016, took a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan's president, something that had never happened before since normalization of US-China relations. I suspect that a second Trump administration will see him visit Taiwan, and restoration of formal diplomatic relations as opposed to the current "American Institute in Taiwan".
I hope Trump goes further and explicitly encourages Taiwan to build nuclear weapons. Had the US not twice squelched Taiwanese efforts in the 1960s and 1970s, East Asia would be a much, much calmer place today.
Nuclear non-proliferation has been a remarkably common policy across most of the world. MAD itself is already insane, but even more so is encouraging more countries to develop nuclear weapons themselves.
Taiwan was pressured to give up their nuclear program for the simple reason that none of the big boys want nukes that they can't control. And nothing would force China to take the risk of invading Taiwan faster than the latter starting a nuclear weapons program.
I actually think this is a golden opportunity to recognise Taiwan. The PRC isn't ready to invade - Russia's performance has them doing some soul-searching, which will ultimately result in a stronger military, but right now they're on the back foot. The Chinese economy is struggling for various reasons and export restrictions are already in the air, making this a particularly bad time for them to start a trade war.
Please, take a look at a map will you? Taiwan is tiny compared to the Ukraine, China could bomb the island into oblivion in a day. With all the problems China currently has, I have little faith they'd just sit there and do nothing if Taiwan declared independence. In fact this can easily be used to unite the population because you have an external problem, common enemy, and suddenly the economy tanking isn't that important anymore. It would be the end for Taiwan and suck hard for the rest of the world. And with the Russian invasion still going on at the same time, it could very well bring us another step closer to nukes being used. I just watched Dr. Strangelove again and it felt very different that time.
Ceasing the moment can avoid so much pain later. We had time before NK originally got nukes to negotiate a deal with Deng era China which would have involved a two prong invasion and giving north korea up to become a Chinese puppet state. A Chinese puppet would be infinitely better than what they have going on right now, and the folks in south Korea would sleep much more soundly.
I'm glad to see the US appearing to cease the moment similarly here.
Practically? Yes, it’s an independent country and has been for many decades. They have their own government, military, currency, etc.
Diplomatically? No, most countries officially recognize it as part of the PRC.
Why the inconsistency? If you recognize Taiwan’s independence, the PRC won’t talk to you. If Taiwan declares independence, the PRC will invade (or at least has threatened to).
Pretending that Taiwan is part of China while also making it very clear that we will defend Taiwan from China bit silly, but being silly is better than having a great power war.
Well said. Make it look not worth it to China but at the same time play by their rules. Both sides know this is one of the biggest games of bullshit going on. The two risk factors now are China's economy tanking and Xi being a lifetime dictator. If the population suffers, having an external crisis at hand where you can easily paint the other side as the bad guy is an excellent distraction, and for the other point, absolute power corrupts absolutely. A we've seen with Putin, as you near the end of your life the less you care about the fallout of your actions, but at the same time your desire to leave a mark grows...
I agree that the situation doesn't make sense at first glance. The contradictions are glaring. The US has both supported the one-China policy and supported Taiwanese independence. Even with these simple statements, someone here will probably find fault and offer a correction.
This isn't something that can be understood outside of the "ends-justify-the-means", "but my pragmatism" and other sausage making slogans of the foreign policy establishment. We'd have to go through all of the historical machinations before we'd even begin to have a context.
You're not wrong for looking for some semblance of logical consistency. If you prefer analysis from first principles, that's fine, I'd even agree with that perspective in many ways, but you'll have difficulty evaluating the status quo of geopolitics.
Maybe a long way of saying that it doesn't make sense, it isn't supposed to make sense under scrutiny, it probably never will make sense and the expectation is for knights-errant.
Other folks have highlighted the basics, so here's an analogous situation to think about: imagine that the US civil war saw the CSA taking over the territory of the USA, with the US federal government moving to a large hypothetical island off the East Coast. The CSA never completely eliminated all constituent US elements, so the USA still technically exists.
Fast forward to sixty years after the fighting just stopped one day. How would you view those two political entities? Are they equal? Does the existence of the CSA mean the USA doesn't exist as a country? What if the CSA implements trade policies which dissuade you from recognizing the USA as an independent nation? Does the USA still exist in your eyes? Is the USA or the CSA the "true" country?
The answer at this point in time is quite simple: the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) is clearly an independent country. However, the People's Republic of China (aka China) holds such economic power, they bully the rest of the world (though trade policies, etc.) into not recognizing Taiwan as an independent country. Also, the combination of geography and maritime law means that if Taiwan is an independent country, China has very little direct access to the open seas. They want freedom of navigation, so there's a geopolitical angle as well. Look into the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea to advance the Nine Dashed Line policy.
You also need to remember that Chinese civilization is extremely old. The PRC claims to hold something called the Mandate of Heaven, which is a fairly important concept in Chinese history, as it is divine authority to rule over the Chinese people. Frankly, based on how the PRC acts, the RC clearly holds the Mandate of Heaven these days.
China would have open access to the oceans even without controlling Taiwan. The same rules that deny China territorial rights to the South China Sea also grant it access to the oceans. The Nine Dash line is about territory. China wants the South China Sea to be considered its territorial waters where it can make stronger demands about who passes through and what they could do there. It's not the only country trying to do something like that, but international law generally only recognizes the sea up to 12 miles out to be territorial waters.
The Mandate of Heaven is rather more like a justification of de-facto rule and claiming to have lost it is an argument against a failing dynasty. The dynasty managing to unite China would declare it, and as it eventually collapses, rebels would declare it to be forfeit. There would be messy civil war, one of the warring groups would dominate all the others, and the cycle starts anew.
Taiwan is not clearly independent. The issue was treated in Treaty of San Francisco, yet the treaty never unambiguously declared whether Taiwan is independent. It's an extremely complex legal issue. You can state your case but understand that the opposing case has just as much legal ground.
Going by the contrapositive: Since China doesn't perceive this as a declaration of war, then I guess by your binary logic Taiwan's an independent country.
All foreign relations are an expression of power. Taiwan is a country if enough powerful nations say so and are willing to defend the idea. Mainland China is part of the Republic of China if Taiwan has the military might. The one china policy holds as long as the KMT and PRC are in power. Etc etc etc.
Republic of China is an independent country, but for now its territory is limited to just the island of Taiwan instead of its legitimate territory of mainland China.
If you ask people in Taiwan, they will say they’re independent. If you ask China, they’ll say Taiwan belongs to China.
The short history version is basically like this: after the overthrowing of the last emperor and WW2, the Chinese civil war continued between the KMT political party and the Communist party. KMT basically lost and moved to which is Taiwan today and even the KMT now is no longer the controlling majority now (they have elections whereas mainland China does not).
To the person who got flagged to death, apologies I wasn’t ultra precise in grammar, and yes, my experiences does bias me a bit.
Though, in my experience, asking that question to people in China (or from there) is generally met with:
* I don’t know, not interested in politics
* Chinese people live there so they’re a part of China (not separating gov from race/ethnicity as a naive answer)
* (no comment)
Yep, that's how China will interpret it. It won't become hot, but it's such an aggressive move, and "trainers" rarely only do training, that it will ratchet up tensions.
They are there as a deadman’s switch, so if China invades Taiwan, America will have to get involved. They had the same play on the Korean border for a few decades. You are correct it isn’t just training, but to ensure the American people are committed because American troops would have been killed in the PLA’s initial missile volley.
The Republic of China is in control of the island formally known as Formosa. Taipei is a city on Formosa also under Republic of China control. Internationally, representatives of Taipei and the surrounding area are sometimes said to be representing "Chinese Taipei", because Taipei is on Formosa and Formosa is Chinese. There is only one China, and China is the rightful owner of Formosa, and one of its cities, Taipei.
"Country" is an abstract concept and this is one of the cases where the abstraction breaks down. The map is not the territory etc..
Taiwan is a sovereign nation in most respects, at least to the extent that any non-superpower is. China insists stringently on the legal fiction that it is a part of China controlled by a different faction in a frozen-but-ongoing civil war, and other countries - not least Taiwan itself - go along with that legal fiction under the implicit or explicit threat of Chinese force; a threat that is less effective against the US than against many other countries.
Is this an act of war by the US against the PRC? Eh, maybe, if you accept the PRC's territorial claims. A lot of technically-acts-of-war happen, especially in situations like this. Again this is a case where the abstraction breaks down and the realpolitik becomes paramount.
There was a window of opportunity in the 90s and 00s when Russia was weak. All the other post-Soviet/Warsaw pact countries like Baltics were not invaded despite having Russian minorities. But Ukraine was not "ready" back then.
US troops on Kinmen (alias Quemoy) ? That is interesting.
Maybe US frogmen can join Taiwanese frogmen in going ashore on the mainland and going to the movies. At least that's what Taiwanese frogmen were doing some decades ago.
I get the impression that somehow China had started fearing US and NATO a bit less in the last few years. While the war is going on Ukraine, I think this might be the golden opportunity for China to step up and try to take Taiwan. I think the US and Taiwan understand this perception as well, so that's why the permanent "training mission".
At the same time, there is a danger Putin will try to call NATO's bluff and start something with one of the East European members: attack one of the Baltic states or Poland and see how willing US and West European countries will to be take a step closer to WWIII. If NATO hesitates just a moment, it would be its effective end, the alliance won't be worth the paper it was signed on.
I am not sure about that. They could start firing a few drones at some border villages. I bet NATO will pretend to look the other way or say it was just a mistake.
There is increased fatigue about the war, and the initial sympathy is turning to apathy in the West. I don’t see France and Germany being prepared to send their soldiers to fight Russians over a Lithuanian or Polish village. I’d like to believe they would, but I don’t see it realistically.
I think paradoxically if the slowdown doesn't stop, and they think internally people are increasingly unhappy, a war or military aggression is more likely. It's a great distraction something like "the economy is not as good, but look, we got Taiwan back from the weak Americans!"
It's unbelievable that you could look at a country potentially invading another non-threatening country with 2% its population and then decide that other countries trying to avoid this are engaging in Balkanization. Your perspective is insane.
Please remember that the US is responsible for the fragmentation of Korea, Vietnam and Yugoslavia. It's only fair to suspect americans also want the end of proletarian rule in the PRC through military interventions and the support of anti-democratic movements.
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I realize there are good reasons not to do so right now -- RoC itself still says on paper they own all of China, and the West is still too dependent on Chinese manufacturing -- but it would be good to move towards recognizing reality.
Similarly to how China threatened Hongkong if there had been any democratic reforms by the British. That does not hinder China apologists now from bringing up the lack of democracy under british rule.
The Taiwanese first and foremost decide their status, and they want to maintain the status quo. We can’t force another people to declare their own independence when they don’t want to.
Kindly recognize Palestine as a separate state according to United Nations Resolution 181, before you recognize Taiwan and kick-start yet another war.
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Trump, as president-elect in late 2016, took a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan's president, something that had never happened before since normalization of US-China relations. I suspect that a second Trump administration will see him visit Taiwan, and restoration of formal diplomatic relations as opposed to the current "American Institute in Taiwan".
I hope Trump goes further and explicitly encourages Taiwan to build nuclear weapons. Had the US not twice squelched Taiwanese efforts in the 1960s and 1970s, East Asia would be a much, much calmer place today.
Taiwan was pressured to give up their nuclear program for the simple reason that none of the big boys want nukes that they can't control. And nothing would force China to take the risk of invading Taiwan faster than the latter starting a nuclear weapons program.
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I'm glad to see the US appearing to cease the moment similarly here.
Diplomatically? No, most countries officially recognize it as part of the PRC.
Why the inconsistency? If you recognize Taiwan’s independence, the PRC won’t talk to you. If Taiwan declares independence, the PRC will invade (or at least has threatened to).
Pretending that Taiwan is part of China while also making it very clear that we will defend Taiwan from China bit silly, but being silly is better than having a great power war.
This isn't something that can be understood outside of the "ends-justify-the-means", "but my pragmatism" and other sausage making slogans of the foreign policy establishment. We'd have to go through all of the historical machinations before we'd even begin to have a context.
You're not wrong for looking for some semblance of logical consistency. If you prefer analysis from first principles, that's fine, I'd even agree with that perspective in many ways, but you'll have difficulty evaluating the status quo of geopolitics.
Maybe a long way of saying that it doesn't make sense, it isn't supposed to make sense under scrutiny, it probably never will make sense and the expectation is for knights-errant.
But it is, obviously. Anyone who's not a moron can see that.
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Fast forward to sixty years after the fighting just stopped one day. How would you view those two political entities? Are they equal? Does the existence of the CSA mean the USA doesn't exist as a country? What if the CSA implements trade policies which dissuade you from recognizing the USA as an independent nation? Does the USA still exist in your eyes? Is the USA or the CSA the "true" country?
The answer at this point in time is quite simple: the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) is clearly an independent country. However, the People's Republic of China (aka China) holds such economic power, they bully the rest of the world (though trade policies, etc.) into not recognizing Taiwan as an independent country. Also, the combination of geography and maritime law means that if Taiwan is an independent country, China has very little direct access to the open seas. They want freedom of navigation, so there's a geopolitical angle as well. Look into the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea to advance the Nine Dashed Line policy.
You also need to remember that Chinese civilization is extremely old. The PRC claims to hold something called the Mandate of Heaven, which is a fairly important concept in Chinese history, as it is divine authority to rule over the Chinese people. Frankly, based on how the PRC acts, the RC clearly holds the Mandate of Heaven these days.
The Mandate of Heaven is rather more like a justification of de-facto rule and claiming to have lost it is an argument against a failing dynasty. The dynasty managing to unite China would declare it, and as it eventually collapses, rebels would declare it to be forfeit. There would be messy civil war, one of the warring groups would dominate all the others, and the cycle starts anew.
In practice, it is an independent country. But the People's Republic of China (PRC) has a "one China" policy where they claim Taiwan as theirs.
PRC spends a large deal of their diplomatic efforts trying to enforce their policy.
The short history version is basically like this: after the overthrowing of the last emperor and WW2, the Chinese civil war continued between the KMT political party and the Communist party. KMT basically lost and moved to which is Taiwan today and even the KMT now is no longer the controlling majority now (they have elections whereas mainland China does not).
Though, in my experience, asking that question to people in China (or from there) is generally met with:
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China just uses its weight to bully countries into submission on declaring their view on Taiwan.
Taiwan is a sovereign nation in most respects, at least to the extent that any non-superpower is. China insists stringently on the legal fiction that it is a part of China controlled by a different faction in a frozen-but-ongoing civil war, and other countries - not least Taiwan itself - go along with that legal fiction under the implicit or explicit threat of Chinese force; a threat that is less effective against the US than against many other countries.
Is this an act of war by the US against the PRC? Eh, maybe, if you accept the PRC's territorial claims. A lot of technically-acts-of-war happen, especially in situations like this. Again this is a case where the abstraction breaks down and the realpolitik becomes paramount.
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Maybe US frogmen can join Taiwanese frogmen in going ashore on the mainland and going to the movies. At least that's what Taiwanese frogmen were doing some decades ago.
At the same time, there is a danger Putin will try to call NATO's bluff and start something with one of the East European members: attack one of the Baltic states or Poland and see how willing US and West European countries will to be take a step closer to WWIII. If NATO hesitates just a moment, it would be its effective end, the alliance won't be worth the paper it was signed on.
There is increased fatigue about the war, and the initial sympathy is turning to apathy in the West. I don’t see France and Germany being prepared to send their soldiers to fight Russians over a Lithuanian or Polish village. I’d like to believe they would, but I don’t see it realistically.
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