edit: Chinese customs data shows during the first 11 months of 2023, China's vehicle shipments to Russia soared 545% from a year ago, to 840,000 units, making it China's fastest-growing market. New energy vehicles (NEVs), such as hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs), were also fueling the record production and exports”.
RU is ~5% of PRC car exports. IIRC West pulling out of RU removed 500k imports from market over multiple years. PRC exported 2M more cars in 23 than 22.
PRC Ro-Ro construction rampup preceded RU/UKR war by 5 years, and set to increase in next 5 years. RU too small of a market for this much auto sealift.
500k? “ Chinese customs data shows during the first 11 months of 2023, China's vehicle shipments to Russia soared 545% from a year ago, to 840,000 units, making it China's fastest-growing market. New energy vehicles (NEVs), such as hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs), were also fueling the record production and exports”.
I think the reason is not western sanctions, but rather decreased local demand in China. Patrick Boyle does a very good job at explaining it:
https://youtu.be/rZgaj0jScOI
I'm still skeptical. Let's wait for a few years and see how the quality, after market and customer support really is. In my experience, that's not a strong-suit of chinese brands.
Range anxiety and charging infrastructure are also major hurdles.
Around 50% of people in the EU live in apartments. Most apartments were built decades ago and lack EV chargers - and, in many cases, enough dedicated parking spots for each unit, but that's a different story.
If people in the states think that charging a Model 3 or Model Y is too time consuming, when close to 90% of Americans live in single family houses, why would the majority of European car buyers be willing to switch to EVs, when they don't even have the option to install an EV charger?
> If people in the states think that charging a Model 3 or Model Y is too time consuming
A lot of them are being told this, and they just believe it without running the numbers for their use case. For some it would be longer until infrastructure improves, but for others it would actually be less time “waiting” on their EV than their ICE car. I’m in the UK and I’ve spent 0 mins waiting on my EV charging in the last 4 months. Plug in at night and unplug in the morning. I’ve also spent 0 minutes visiting gas stations.
America has bigger distances and there are other factors of course.
Chinese companies iterate, learn, and adapt very quickly.
If their goal is to be world-class automakers then they will quickly learn from local markets and adapt accordingly.
For instance, I used to have a Huawei phone and the quality was on par with Apple and better than Samsung (taking Apple on was their goal and they executed accordingly).
Tesla has been quite successful despite a few hickups along the way, including regarding quality. My guess is that Chinese brands can follow at least the same trajectory, if not better.
Consider also that BYD supplies batteries to Tesla, at least in Europe. So at least on that front they seem to be world-class if not leaders.
Still, it's their turn to prove themselves - buying a car with no service network, no spare parts infrastructure, and no proven track record, and no knowledge on resale value is errand I'd let others go through before me, Chinese car or not.
Especially since EVs are not cheap and I'm planning to keep them for a while.
China has a history of fine manufacturing and they make the iPhone there. Sure there are the factories that turn out junk appliances that are sold under famous brands but some Chinese brands want very much to win customers over with quality and innovation. In photography many of the most interesting products today come from companies like QoCam (stereo, pano, and “bullet time” cameras) or 7Artisans (affordable manual focus lenses with unusual focal length/aperture combinations…. A $200 lens from 7Artisan might compete with a $7000 lens from a Japanese brand, the $7000 lens is better but I can take pictures with the $200 lens that look like nothing you’ve seen.)
> Tesla has been quite successful despite a few hickups along the way, including regarding quality.
Are you implying that Tesla is good quality? They are successful yes, but the hardware quality is just awful. Leaking roofs and stuff like that is not hard to get right.
I rode in a BYD and it was considerably more uncomfortable than my Land Rover Defender Td5, imagine that! My truck was more comfortable as a taller person than the BYD.
I don't know, I think that's still a very one-sided view. China can manufacture good stuff, but in my view only with good external QA. It's just a different culture around quality in my limited experience. Japan and Germany still lead imho.
A family member got a BYD Dolphin recently and it seems really nice. Not quite as chic and Apple-esque as a Tesla but heaps of cool features, surprisingly quick for a non-sports model, gets better range than advertised. Given the price relative to other similar vehicles I'm not surprised they're selling like hot cakes.
Chinese manufacturers like BYD are opening plants in Mexico to get around the US protectionism against Chinese made cars. Blocking this would require serious changes to the USMCA.
Tesla has proven you don’t need a dealer network to sell cars in the United States.
And how are people going to service those cars? I mean it is not a phone, that you can make a million units, send it into the world and after EoP pretend that it never existed.
This is what they get for investing in anti-EV FUD instead of investing in EVs.
It’s also what they get for enshittifying cars. China might sell me the car I want: simple, ultra reliable, long range, no infotainment system, no tracking, no subscriptions, no attempts to foist software on me, and made of standard parts making it cheap to repair. Just a motor, battery, wheels, and basic car comforts.
I don’t want to see China win this one but I’ve felt it coming for a while.
Indeed, and this also explains the popularity of Dacia.
I would go a step further and say that I don't even want some safety features if the cost/benefit ratio is not unequivocally positive. The safety push in the car industry is great for incumbent manufacturers but bad for consumers on a budget. I fully realize we still lose too many people in car accidents, but I'd rather use public transport or bikes for 90% of my travels and own a slightly unsafer but very cheap car that I use sporadically. (This is in a region that is very bike-friendly with superb public transport).
Wait a few years, PRC investing big in indigenous auto components, cost of electronics/sensors is easy to value engineer and scale. I think if you're prodominantly operating in urban enviros, especially one that's bike friendly (pedestrian centred), some extra safety is worthwhile investment. Auto parking seems like a nice feature for city driving, having lots of sensors provide overlapping features and there's more to gain than lose. Chinese cars sector are going to make those standard in cheap cars and hopefully convince everyone else to as well.
I wouldn't dismiss the safety feature a modern car has, you never know when you might need them.
Features like auto braking system are incredible. I know someone where this saved a kids life (kid ran on the road from between cars right in front of a car).
The crash safety feature on high end cars are also incredible, I know someone else with a completely mangled up car after a high speed crash just walk and be fine.
I am also old enough to know people that have died or with lasting damage like paralysis or back issues from crashes quite some time ago.
That's the problem, it's not about your safety, it's about that of your environment. And Dacia's, especially their cheap SUVs, are horrible at keeping pedestrians safe.
> China might sell me the car I want: simple, ultra reliable, long range, no infotainment system, no tracking, no subscriptions, no attempts to foist software on me, and made of standard parts making it cheap to repair. Just a motor, battery, wheels, and basic car comforts.
But it won't be like that, will it.
There will be an infotainment system with broken features and no updates, there will be tracking and of course some software is inevitable in modern cars, not least because the regulations demand that. There will be no standard parts. The reliability remains to be seen.
> This is what they get for investing in anti-EV FUD instead of investing in EVs.
A lot of the "FUD" are actually very valid concerns - the energy needed, the grid, where to actually charge them when living in an apartment, many times without a dedicated garage space. On top of that the cost - cost of a new one and cost of repair. Sorry but seems a lot of the "FUD" argument comes from very well of IT/Tech people who live in a kind of ivory castle where $50k for a new car where one small fender-bender costs thousands is not much.
> China might sell me the car I want: simple, ultra reliable, long range, no infotainment system, no tracking, no subscriptions, no attempts to foist software on me, and made of standard parts making it cheap to repair
They won't, at least in the UE cause of regulations.
LOL, you do realize that you're talking about a totalitarian country with "social credit" system, and probably most advanced surveillance tech in the world?
In a digitalized world, we all live in a totalitarian system. For example, Meta Corp has a relationship graph that would certainly make even the East German Stasi jealous and on a global scale. Fun fact: China has more liberal laws on cryptography than, for example, Australia (which mandates backdoors for companies operating in land of oz)
Not sure if you realise that the social credit system is commonly misinterpreted ? It's just a similar financial credit score system in the west. Theres nothing in place that remotely looks like that episode of black mirror.
The article has a click bait title and then opens up with how fast the Chinese electric cars are compared to high end gas cars. Like, that's a core property of electric cars, nothing to do with incredible innovations in China...
It mentions: speed of development (much faster), a MVP concept of new model testing, a new breed of companies a la Tesla founded by tech billionaires, the old battery supply control story, BYD surpassing Tesla, ...
I find it quit insightful if you want an update of the affairs in the car market.
And I happen to have a friend in Germany in the industry, he acknowledges the utter fear the German brands have with the storm that is ahead (he is actually considering to leave Germany). The largest EV producer in the World only two weeks ago sent their first shipment to Europe. This 'clickbait' is just starting to unfold.
To be honest I stopped reading after that intellectually dishonest opener. I didn't mean to suggest there wasn't truth to the claim or that the market wasn't ripe for a shakeup. Interesting anecdote, too, thanks for sharing.
I don't know what the economist is saying because paywall, but the proud western * auto industry with hundreds of years of tradition combined should work on reducing prices instead of on super premium electric cars.
* and Japanese. What are you thinking with those PHEV Rav prices, Toyota?
It depends on the company. VW has a serious problem because they are selling a mass market product where they need to compete with the Chinese products. And while they make fine cars their infotainment system that now controls everything is still terrible (laggy touchscreens, complicated UI and so on) and the cars are expensive and their EVs are slow. Unlike many here I think touchscreens in a car are fine if done well (like Tesla), but getting it right is extremely important.
On the other hand, BMW/Mercedes for example sell much based on brand recognition and to a market segment willing to pay a lot. This is unlikely to change soon, so their strategy is reasonable.
> Unlike many here I think touchscreens in a car are fine if done well (like Tesla)
Ouch. Yes you're a minority. I will never buy a Tesla because of the touch screen only interface. I don't want to die adjusting the a/c on the touch screen.
Readit News
Notice how this hockey stick growth started shortly after February 2022, i.e. is a direct result of Western sanctions on Russia: https://x.com/brad_setser/status/1670842577862508556?s=46
edit: Chinese customs data shows during the first 11 months of 2023, China's vehicle shipments to Russia soared 545% from a year ago, to 840,000 units, making it China's fastest-growing market. New energy vehicles (NEVs), such as hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs), were also fueling the record production and exports”.
https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-market-evs-give-china-fuel...
PRC Ro-Ro construction rampup preceded RU/UKR war by 5 years, and set to increase in next 5 years. RU too small of a market for this much auto sealift.
https://imgur.com/a/Ndhju6A
https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-market-evs-give-china-fuel...
What? It starts after Q2 2020 in the chart you linked.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/dacia-europe-sales-figures/
EDIT: Wrong address above. See https://www.acea.auto/fact/fact-sheet-eu-china-vehicle-trade...
Deleted Comment
Around 50% of people in the EU live in apartments. Most apartments were built decades ago and lack EV chargers - and, in many cases, enough dedicated parking spots for each unit, but that's a different story.
If people in the states think that charging a Model 3 or Model Y is too time consuming, when close to 90% of Americans live in single family houses, why would the majority of European car buyers be willing to switch to EVs, when they don't even have the option to install an EV charger?
A lot of them are being told this, and they just believe it without running the numbers for their use case. For some it would be longer until infrastructure improves, but for others it would actually be less time “waiting” on their EV than their ICE car. I’m in the UK and I’ve spent 0 mins waiting on my EV charging in the last 4 months. Plug in at night and unplug in the morning. I’ve also spent 0 minutes visiting gas stations.
America has bigger distances and there are other factors of course.
If their goal is to be world-class automakers then they will quickly learn from local markets and adapt accordingly.
For instance, I used to have a Huawei phone and the quality was on par with Apple and better than Samsung (taking Apple on was their goal and they executed accordingly).
Tesla has been quite successful despite a few hickups along the way, including regarding quality. My guess is that Chinese brands can follow at least the same trajectory, if not better.
Consider also that BYD supplies batteries to Tesla, at least in Europe. So at least on that front they seem to be world-class if not leaders.
Especially since EVs are not cheap and I'm planning to keep them for a while.
Are you implying that Tesla is good quality? They are successful yes, but the hardware quality is just awful. Leaking roofs and stuff like that is not hard to get right.
I rode in a BYD and it was considerably more uncomfortable than my Land Rover Defender Td5, imagine that! My truck was more comfortable as a taller person than the BYD.
I don't know, I think that's still a very one-sided view. China can manufacture good stuff, but in my view only with good external QA. It's just a different culture around quality in my limited experience. Japan and Germany still lead imho.
Tons of people I know buy beaters from 20+ years ago because thats all they can afford, but would rather buy a new cheapo thing if it existed.
There is a massive untapped market for cheap vehicles. nobody serving that market.
That's a shockingly small amount of money for a car.
I can do you a Citroen Ami for £8,095 + your dignity.
https://www.topgear.com/sites/default/files/2023/08/1-Citroe...
I do not know how much these are subsidized.
Will the UAW and their friendly politicians allow China to destroy the US domestic brands?
Tesla has proven you don’t need a dealer network to sell cars in the United States.
It’s also what they get for enshittifying cars. China might sell me the car I want: simple, ultra reliable, long range, no infotainment system, no tracking, no subscriptions, no attempts to foist software on me, and made of standard parts making it cheap to repair. Just a motor, battery, wheels, and basic car comforts.
I don’t want to see China win this one but I’ve felt it coming for a while.
I would go a step further and say that I don't even want some safety features if the cost/benefit ratio is not unequivocally positive. The safety push in the car industry is great for incumbent manufacturers but bad for consumers on a budget. I fully realize we still lose too many people in car accidents, but I'd rather use public transport or bikes for 90% of my travels and own a slightly unsafer but very cheap car that I use sporadically. (This is in a region that is very bike-friendly with superb public transport).
Deleted Comment
Features like auto braking system are incredible. I know someone where this saved a kids life (kid ran on the road from between cars right in front of a car).
The crash safety feature on high end cars are also incredible, I know someone else with a completely mangled up car after a high speed crash just walk and be fine.
I am also old enough to know people that have died or with lasting damage like paralysis or back issues from crashes quite some time ago.
But it won't be like that, will it. There will be an infotainment system with broken features and no updates, there will be tracking and of course some software is inevitable in modern cars, not least because the regulations demand that. There will be no standard parts. The reliability remains to be seen.
Because if it does that is all I need. Something GM is taking away
It would be hillarous if we start to prefer Chinese cars due to privacy reasons ...
It wouldn't surprise me really if spyware are only to be made legal in cars the gov. feels it controls the manufacturer of.
I love the concept, but where I live there are too many trees....
A lot of the "FUD" are actually very valid concerns - the energy needed, the grid, where to actually charge them when living in an apartment, many times without a dedicated garage space. On top of that the cost - cost of a new one and cost of repair. Sorry but seems a lot of the "FUD" argument comes from very well of IT/Tech people who live in a kind of ivory castle where $50k for a new car where one small fender-bender costs thousands is not much.
> China might sell me the car I want: simple, ultra reliable, long range, no infotainment system, no tracking, no subscriptions, no attempts to foist software on me, and made of standard parts making it cheap to repair
They won't, at least in the UE cause of regulations.
LOL, you do realize that you're talking about a totalitarian country with "social credit" system, and probably most advanced surveillance tech in the world?
Dead Comment
I find it quit insightful if you want an update of the affairs in the car market.
And I happen to have a friend in Germany in the industry, he acknowledges the utter fear the German brands have with the storm that is ahead (he is actually considering to leave Germany). The largest EV producer in the World only two weeks ago sent their first shipment to Europe. This 'clickbait' is just starting to unfold.
* and Japanese. What are you thinking with those PHEV Rav prices, Toyota?
On the other hand, BMW/Mercedes for example sell much based on brand recognition and to a market segment willing to pay a lot. This is unlikely to change soon, so their strategy is reasonable.
Ouch. Yes you're a minority. I will never buy a Tesla because of the touch screen only interface. I don't want to die adjusting the a/c on the touch screen.
Deleted Comment