KFOR, the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo, has gotten a larger troop deployment in the last week [0].
Serbian soldiers crossing into Kosovo is a clear violation of the Kumanova Agreement AND unlike Russia-Ukraine they will be de facto declaring war against the US and NATO due to the American and EU boots on the ground, and bye bye 25 years of work to try and join the EU.
It's just election posturing by Serbia, as Vucic promised calling a snap election in the coming weeks in the aftermath of a mass shooting in May 2023 [1] destroying his popularity and sparking mass protests reminiscent of Euromaidan and Gezi Park.
A Serbian emigrant here. There hasn't been 25 years of work to join EU. The actual work has been done between 2001 and 2004 and between 2008 and 2012. Since then, since the current governing parties are in power, there hasn't been anything done. They don't care.
For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture.
My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country.
I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.
I can't read Serbian so I don't have as deep an understanding of internal structures, but I would assume that enough powerful people within Serbia would be hurt economically by warmongering, and Vucic has nowhere near the level of control that Putin or even Erdogan has. I'd assume a coup would happen, similar to what happened in Egypt, Portugal in the 70s, or Greece in the 70s
"The name Kosovo is derived from a Serbian place-name meaning “field of blackbirds.” After serving as the centre of a medieval Serbian empire, Kosovo was ruled by the Ottoman Empire from the mid-15th to the early 20th century, a period when Islam grew in importance and the population of Albanian speakers in the region increased."
Then research the political background behind the recent use of "Kosova" form.
Also:
BBC: "Kosovo: Why is violence flaring between ethnic Serbs and Albanians?"
>The US warnings come at the end of a week of high tension, beginning with an ambush by well-armed Serb paramilitaries on a Kosovan police patrol, in which a policeman was killed. Three Serb gunmen were killed in the ensuing battle, near the village of Banjskë.
>Serbia declared a day of mourning for the three dead Kosovo Serbs, and Vučić falsely claimed Kosovo forces were conducting a campaign of “brutal ethnic cleansing” against ethnic Serbs.
This is textbook prelude to invasion. Additionally, Serbia has a fairly recent history (30 years ago was not that long ago) of warring in Croatia and Bosnia, where the predominant sentiment just before was that there is no way that Serbia would unleash the former Yugoslavian army on countries it just "yesterday" called brothers and sisters. Then they unleashed the army and gave full support to paramilitary forces spreading terror and reintroducing concentration camps to Europe. Moreover, the current president is a past pupil of a nationalist leader from the 90s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vojislav_%C5%A0e%C5%A1elj) who played a huge role in supporting wars and warcrimes that painted the west of the former Yugoslavia red with blood. Given the context of this, and given the history of the country and its president who is "just posturing", it would be extremely foolish if Kosovo does not fully prepare for an invasion.
"In a statement issued to the Financial Times on Saturday, Aleksandar Vučić said that he would draw down Serbia’s forces in the area because an escalation of the conflict would be counter-productive for Belgrade’s EU aspirations."
On the one side, the Serbian president is exactly what the rest of the comments here describe him as, and worse. The situation would be infinitely better if he recognised Kosovo and moved on. Instead, he keeps the question open purely for his own political advantage, ensuring that the tensions remain at the expense of the people.
On the other side, Kosovo is a military industrial complex puppet state that they've cut ties with/lost control of (intentionally or otherwise). It has been ramping up its opportunistic bullying and provocative abuse of the minority population in the north, who as of last year have no representation at all in local government, and are pretty helpless.
The unfortunate victims at this point in time are the minority Serbs in northern Kosovo, and more widely, the general Serbian population, who just like in the case of Brexit are being held hostage by their predominantly older, state-owned TV-watching, voting population who overwhelmingly vote for Vucic. Meanwhile, weapons have been flooding into the region from both the east and the west at alarming rates for the last couple of years, so he must be useful to someone.
Nobody wants this, but war is money, so here we are.
It's as if creating a new state from a thin air without any consideration for the ethnical minorities that will stay there was a bad idea. The problem here is that US politics in the region was never meant to create peace, it was meant to get influence and push Russia out. The solutions for both Kosovo and Bosnia were pretty obviously leading to failed state territory from the get go and the whole region will be devastated by these decisions in the decades to come.
Technically there's also a path where people become less racist so ethnicities matter less.
I think that's an area where the average person in the U.S. struggles. For all our issues with race, we are generally fairly integrated, so the thought that national borders need to very closely reflect ethnicities isn't top of mind.
Especially Bosnia, there was very much no correlation between territory and ethnicity, so the difficulty is built in. I don't know if this was much better in Kosovo, it does seem like that sliver of mostly Serbians are on the wrong side of the border, but since this is, you know, the Balkans, I expect the answer to be more complicated than a simple "America did what was in it's best interest".
Pushing Russia out is always a good thing, if stability and human rights are of interest though. It's tons better in either country now than it was before.
You're trying to muddy the waters here by saying each side is as bad as the other, but it's really not the case. Vucic is a tinpot wannabe dictator who is trying to rustle up a provocation to prop up his support at home.
The fact that you are right about Vučić does not mean it's not exactly the same for Kurti: EU and USA were warning that side of escalating tensions mere months ago and threatening repercussions too.
Each side is as bad as the other. As a Serbian, I find it worse that Serbian side is no better, but populism wins everywhere (US had four years of Trump, there's Brexit...).
I don't think it's misleading. It is an accurate description of the current situation. They also no longer have any representation in their local police force[0].
Along similar lines, it would be misleading to say the reason for the current situation is simply that "they boycotted the elections", without unpacking the reasons behind that boycott. For example, US actually penalised Kosovo[1] for their conduct following that election, and the EU went as far as to accuse their authorities of intentionally destabilising the situation.
It's important to be mindful of succumbing to reductionism if you're looking to understand complex political situations (assuming that's what you're looking to do).
It's very misleading from your side. People don't just boycott elections for the heck of it.
"Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs are demanding the creation of an association of Kosovo Serb municipalities, in line with a decade-old EU-brokered deal with the Kosovo government in Pristina, before they take part in the vote."[0]
The attitudes of some peoples in these regions reminds me of a story:
Two peasants lived across the road from each other. One morning, one of them found his milk cow dead in the barn. Without his milk cow he had no income and no future. Despairing, he fell upon the ground, wailing and begging God's mercy. So deep was his agony and so eloquent his prayers that God Himself heard and spoke to him: "Your entreaties have touched me, my son, and I shall grant you mercy. How may I help you?"
Thinking for a moment, the peasant replied: "Kill my neighbor’s milk cow."
-------------------------------
Here's another more complex version of the joke with analysis of the attitude/psychology that may underlie it:
Its worth mentioning that there is a second perspective to this being a matter of EU/NATO vs Serbia. Aljazeera had an interesting opinion piece framing it as Kosovo getting dropped to achieve Serbian integration into the western block
Cant say anything about the plausibility but the references to EU sanctions against Kosovo and the former president of Kosovo being currently on trial in the Hague are interesting points.
Would be happy to hear from anyone familiar with that perspective, it was news to me. But pressuring Kosovo to play ball in the negotiations doesnt seem to be out of the question?
This is from before the latest events. Since then Serbia has escalated the situation.
The current President of Kosovo is a hard-liner that refuses to implement agreement made before he got elected. He is being rightly pressured on that point, even though I understand and even partially agree with his reasons.
Thaci is also on trial with a good reason. There are a lot of indications he did commit crimes. It's a good thing the matter will be put to rest one way or another.
So they aren't really pressuring Kosovo, they are being neutralan, trying to get both sides to co-operate using the few tools they have on their disposal.
Whatever happens, I just pray that Kosovo's population doesn't decide to come to my country again and not leave when the war is over, again (if a war was to happen). I'm from (North) Macedonia.
There was a lot of borderline propaganda on US news media during the war in the 90s that a lot of people swallowed whole without thinking about it too much: "Serbs are bad. Everything they do is bad. Albanians and Croats are just simple innocent victims." (To the point that even the reporter doing most of the coverage at CNN was Albanian and no one thought that was a conflict of interest).
The reality is, of course, a lot messier and more unpleasant: The region is filled with people who hate each other and tend to massacre each other along ethnic lines whenever one group gets the upper hand over the others. There's a reason every World War starts there. So NATO stepped in and basically said to Serbia "If there are non-Serbs in _your_ borders, they may form breakaway republics and you must let them secede. However, in Kosovo (your former state) Serbs may not do the same thing." Serbs were basically ethnically cleansed out of Kosovo under the "protection" of NATO Kfor. There are multiple accounts of NATO forces standing a few feet away and watching as Albanians burn and loot Serbian Orthodox churches and villages.
I'm not sure what "the way out" of this is, but I think US/NATO has a responsibility to treat all the sides equally, which they don't exactly have a great track record of doing.
An EU assension leading to a shared economic zone and open borders. This is what brought peace to North Ireland, Romania-Hungary, Greece-Bulgaria, etc.
It didn't stop Brexit however. Europe might get nasty at some point, if we think of all the far-right posturing and their recent successes. These people are dangerous.
Serbia did bad the things in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and was going to do the same in Kosovo until NATO bombarded them.
(Kosovo was already critical in 80ies)
That doesn't absolve any party of the commited (war) crimes, but it is perfectly clear who was/is the regional bully and who commited aggression against neighbours.
I also don't buy tipical lines "they all hate each other", or this is the revenge for what " they" did to "us" in WW2, WW1, during Ottoman times, during Roman times ... Historical crimes are not excuse for new ones, vicious circle must stop somewhere.
Everything you wrote is correct, and I would just like to add that in all the wars during the 90s, all Serbia had to do in order to avoid war was to not attack other countries and support paramilitary groups inside other countries. They were not defending their territory, they were invading others. Same with this possible invasion that they might be preparing right now, all Serbia needs to do is not attack.
Trying to paint this as "all groups hate and massacre each other" is equating the motives of the attacker/invader/bully with the victim, and is just pure propaganda or invention of alternate reality in order to soothe one's guilty conscience. To draw a parallel with something more people might be able to more clearly visualise, Serbia is the armed robber that breaks into your house and starts stealing your stuff and beating you, your wife and your children. By the logic of the "all sides" propaganda here, you are engaging in "mutual hatred" if you try to defend yourself.
You are aware that Milošević and Tuđman both agreed to carve up Bosnia, right? And there was Varivode, "Operation Storm" where the Krajina Serbs who didn't flee quick enough were raped and pillaged, and a whole bunch of other cases. Milošević, the JNA, Srpska, or the Serb "volunteer guard" may have been the worst but there are plenty of contenders for second place. Not to mention the Bosnian mujahideen.
> Serbs were basically ethnically cleansed out of Kosovo under the "protection" of NATO Kfor. There are multiple accounts of NATO forces standing a few feet away and watching as Albanians burn and loot Serbian Orthodox churches and villages.
I want to learn more about this, but I can't find a reliable source. For what it's worth, the Wikipedia article about the "2004 unrest in Kosovo" (AKA the "Pogrom against the Serbs") [1] has many accounts of Kfor protecting Serbs.
Where can I find accounts of NATO forces doing nothing?
"Between the arrival of the Kosovo Force (KFOR) in June 1999 and the 2004 unrest in Kosovo, more than 140 holy sites were destroyed, about half of the historical ones from the 14th and 15th centuries"
Readit News
KFOR, the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo, has gotten a larger troop deployment in the last week [0].
Serbian soldiers crossing into Kosovo is a clear violation of the Kumanova Agreement AND unlike Russia-Ukraine they will be de facto declaring war against the US and NATO due to the American and EU boots on the ground, and bye bye 25 years of work to try and join the EU.
It's just election posturing by Serbia, as Vucic promised calling a snap election in the coming weeks in the aftermath of a mass shooting in May 2023 [1] destroying his popularity and sparking mass protests reminiscent of Euromaidan and Gezi Park.
[0] - https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo...
[1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/serbia-snap-election-2023-al...
For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture.
My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country.
I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.
Dead Comment
Yeah, it is good that you are no longer in Serbia, but you should stop calling yourself Serbian because you very clearly are not.
Readers should note that the above post used the _Albanian_ form of this name, and compare with the Britannica's reference:
https://www.britannica.com/place/Kosovo
"The name Kosovo is derived from a Serbian place-name meaning “field of blackbirds.” After serving as the centre of a medieval Serbian empire, Kosovo was ruled by the Ottoman Empire from the mid-15th to the early 20th century, a period when Islam grew in importance and the population of Albanian speakers in the region increased."
Then research the political background behind the recent use of "Kosova" form.
Also:
BBC: "Kosovo: Why is violence flaring between ethnic Serbs and Albanians?"
https://www.bbc.com/news/62382069
>The US warnings come at the end of a week of high tension, beginning with an ambush by well-armed Serb paramilitaries on a Kosovan police patrol, in which a policeman was killed. Three Serb gunmen were killed in the ensuing battle, near the village of Banjskë. >Serbia declared a day of mourning for the three dead Kosovo Serbs, and Vučić falsely claimed Kosovo forces were conducting a campaign of “brutal ethnic cleansing” against ethnic Serbs.
This is textbook prelude to invasion. Additionally, Serbia has a fairly recent history (30 years ago was not that long ago) of warring in Croatia and Bosnia, where the predominant sentiment just before was that there is no way that Serbia would unleash the former Yugoslavian army on countries it just "yesterday" called brothers and sisters. Then they unleashed the army and gave full support to paramilitary forces spreading terror and reintroducing concentration camps to Europe. Moreover, the current president is a past pupil of a nationalist leader from the 90s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vojislav_%C5%A0e%C5%A1elj) who played a huge role in supporting wars and warcrimes that painted the west of the former Yugoslavia red with blood. Given the context of this, and given the history of the country and its president who is "just posturing", it would be extremely foolish if Kosovo does not fully prepare for an invasion.
"In a statement issued to the Financial Times on Saturday, Aleksandar Vučić said that he would draw down Serbia’s forces in the area because an escalation of the conflict would be counter-productive for Belgrade’s EU aspirations."
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/navy-ships/US%20Aircraft...
Many times it doesn't:
long list of regions NATO meddling escalated.
Did NATO bombing achieve anything:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia
On the one side, the Serbian president is exactly what the rest of the comments here describe him as, and worse. The situation would be infinitely better if he recognised Kosovo and moved on. Instead, he keeps the question open purely for his own political advantage, ensuring that the tensions remain at the expense of the people.
On the other side, Kosovo is a military industrial complex puppet state that they've cut ties with/lost control of (intentionally or otherwise). It has been ramping up its opportunistic bullying and provocative abuse of the minority population in the north, who as of last year have no representation at all in local government, and are pretty helpless.
The unfortunate victims at this point in time are the minority Serbs in northern Kosovo, and more widely, the general Serbian population, who just like in the case of Brexit are being held hostage by their predominantly older, state-owned TV-watching, voting population who overwhelmingly vote for Vucic. Meanwhile, weapons have been flooding into the region from both the east and the west at alarming rates for the last couple of years, so he must be useful to someone.
Nobody wants this, but war is money, so here we are.
I think that's an area where the average person in the U.S. struggles. For all our issues with race, we are generally fairly integrated, so the thought that national borders need to very closely reflect ethnicities isn't top of mind.
Pushing Russia out is always a good thing, if stability and human rights are of interest though. It's tons better in either country now than it was before.
Each side is as bad as the other. As a Serbian, I find it worse that Serbian side is no better, but populism wins everywhere (US had four years of Trump, there's Brexit...).
It's very misleading to mention this without stating the reason: they boycotted the elections
If you don't vote, you don't get any representation
Along similar lines, it would be misleading to say the reason for the current situation is simply that "they boycotted the elections", without unpacking the reasons behind that boycott. For example, US actually penalised Kosovo[1] for their conduct following that election, and the EU went as far as to accuse their authorities of intentionally destabilising the situation.
It's important to be mindful of succumbing to reductionism if you're looking to understand complex political situations (assuming that's what you're looking to do).
[0]: https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/05/serb-mps-and-police-resi... [1]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65759214
"Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs are demanding the creation of an association of Kosovo Serb municipalities, in line with a decade-old EU-brokered deal with the Kosovo government in Pristina, before they take part in the vote."[0]
[0]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbs-north-kosovo-boyc...
Kurti said that they will never implement the agreement they signed and here we are. If only 'countries' honored what they signed.
Well, if you refuse to stand-up candidates in local elections, that's what happens.
Two peasants lived across the road from each other. One morning, one of them found his milk cow dead in the barn. Without his milk cow he had no income and no future. Despairing, he fell upon the ground, wailing and begging God's mercy. So deep was his agony and so eloquent his prayers that God Himself heard and spoke to him: "Your entreaties have touched me, my son, and I shall grant you mercy. How may I help you?"
Thinking for a moment, the peasant replied: "Kill my neighbor’s milk cow."
-------------------------------
Here's another more complex version of the joke with analysis of the attitude/psychology that may underlie it:
https://andrewtobias.com/kill-my-neighbors-cow/
(Scroll to the bottom under "RUSSIA PERSPECTIVE")
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/14/does-the-west-s...
Cant say anything about the plausibility but the references to EU sanctions against Kosovo and the former president of Kosovo being currently on trial in the Hague are interesting points.
Non opinion piece on the background https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standof...
Would be happy to hear from anyone familiar with that perspective, it was news to me. But pressuring Kosovo to play ball in the negotiations doesnt seem to be out of the question?
The current President of Kosovo is a hard-liner that refuses to implement agreement made before he got elected. He is being rightly pressured on that point, even though I understand and even partially agree with his reasons.
Thaci is also on trial with a good reason. There are a lot of indications he did commit crimes. It's a good thing the matter will be put to rest one way or another.
So they aren't really pressuring Kosovo, they are being neutralan, trying to get both sides to co-operate using the few tools they have on their disposal.
The reality is, of course, a lot messier and more unpleasant: The region is filled with people who hate each other and tend to massacre each other along ethnic lines whenever one group gets the upper hand over the others. There's a reason every World War starts there. So NATO stepped in and basically said to Serbia "If there are non-Serbs in _your_ borders, they may form breakaway republics and you must let them secede. However, in Kosovo (your former state) Serbs may not do the same thing." Serbs were basically ethnically cleansed out of Kosovo under the "protection" of NATO Kfor. There are multiple accounts of NATO forces standing a few feet away and watching as Albanians burn and loot Serbian Orthodox churches and villages.
I'm not sure what "the way out" of this is, but I think US/NATO has a responsibility to treat all the sides equally, which they don't exactly have a great track record of doing.
An EU assension leading to a shared economic zone and open borders. This is what brought peace to North Ireland, Romania-Hungary, Greece-Bulgaria, etc.
Germany and Russia.
Go to https://www.icty.org/, read about cases, verdicts and pleas:
https://www.icty.org/en/cases/key-figures-cases care to search for the GENOCIDE word in there?
Serbia did bad the things in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and was going to do the same in Kosovo until NATO bombarded them. (Kosovo was already critical in 80ies)
That doesn't absolve any party of the commited (war) crimes, but it is perfectly clear who was/is the regional bully and who commited aggression against neighbours.
I also don't buy tipical lines "they all hate each other", or this is the revenge for what " they" did to "us" in WW2, WW1, during Ottoman times, during Roman times ... Historical crimes are not excuse for new ones, vicious circle must stop somewhere.
Trying to paint this as "all groups hate and massacre each other" is equating the motives of the attacker/invader/bully with the victim, and is just pure propaganda or invention of alternate reality in order to soothe one's guilty conscience. To draw a parallel with something more people might be able to more clearly visualise, Serbia is the armed robber that breaks into your house and starts stealing your stuff and beating you, your wife and your children. By the logic of the "all sides" propaganda here, you are engaging in "mutual hatred" if you try to defend yourself.
I want to learn more about this, but I can't find a reliable source. For what it's worth, the Wikipedia article about the "2004 unrest in Kosovo" (AKA the "Pogrom against the Serbs") [1] has many accounts of Kfor protecting Serbs.
Where can I find accounts of NATO forces doing nothing?
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_unrest_in_Kosovo
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/one-police-officer-...
And Zociste in 2009
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_Serbian_herit...
Among other things, this is just what's findable in 40 seconds on Wikipedia.
Deleted Comment