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alephnerd commented on FDA intends to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs   fda.gov/news-events/press... · Posted by u/randycupertino
tolerance · 6 hours ago
> Thanks to Trump, India has finally began reversing the brain drain, and with it bringing Big Tech [9], Big Pharma (already mentioned), Big Oil [10], and Wall Street [11] back.

“This is not the flex you think it is.”

But thanks for keeping us informed.

alephnerd · 5 hours ago
You're welcome!

If you don't value IP and knowhow that's on you. Every piece of knowledge is valuable no matter what.

China did something similar 15 years ago when it was where India is today.

We also know how little it costs to lobby the US. Maybe the Chinese were a bit right - it's a bit like the late Qing period.

alephnerd commented on FDA intends to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs   fda.gov/news-events/press... · Posted by u/randycupertino
elamje · 7 hours ago
The situation is basically this -

Novo and Lilly spent billions making Semaglutide, Tirzepatide, and future formulations/modalities.

They are going to monetize this heavily while they have IP coverage. There is no world they will let HIMS or any compounding pharmacy of scale undercut them.

On the insurance front - expect your insurance to decline this forever unless you are at serious risk of diabetes. It would make you cost them $3-6k/yr more. Insurance premiums would rise for everyone if insurance was subsidizing this - no free lunch.

Fortunately, the prices are coming down. Amazon pharmacy has Wegovy in an auto-injector starting at $199 without insurance. And that’s delivered to your door in under 24 hrs in most major cities.

I highly recommend checking out the terms of trumprx.gov - not endorsing the entire government here, but it is actually working and quite cleverly written to ensure Americans are getting the lowest cost drugs in the world now. Historically, we subsidized R&D globally by allowing pharma to make most profits on Americans then have cheaper prices abroad. That is changing and hopefully that’s a net positive.

alephnerd · 7 hours ago
The major Indian generics manufacturers have all signed branding and IP agreements with Lilly and Novo as well, so the only people that are hurt are consumers I guess.

India wins (because Indian pharma gets IP and branding transfers). The Trump admin wins (the right strategic lobbying was done). The GOP wins (strategic tariffs on Iowa, North Dakota, and Montana lentil and soybean oil exports were about to kick off in India after they were hit by similar tariffs from China). The American consumer (who voted for Trump) loses.

Welcome to a trade war.

alephnerd commented on FDA intends to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs   fda.gov/news-events/press... · Posted by u/randycupertino
SilverElfin · 7 hours ago
Given how transactional this administration is, you can be confident that one set of companies donated to the administration or enriched the Trump family somehow, and the other set is facing regulatory attacks.
alephnerd · 7 hours ago
;) - https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...

What culminated these past 2 weeks will be a great FT Big Read to participate in later. Years of work.

alephnerd commented on FDA intends to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs   fda.gov/news-events/press... · Posted by u/randycupertino
alephnerd · 7 hours ago
And India wins again!

There's a reason the major Indian generics manufacturers like Cipla have partnered with Ely Lilly [0] and Novo Nordisk [1] for exclusivity deals for GLP branding and IP even though it isn't required outside the US.

Keep screeching about H1Bs and offshoring while sweetheart deals are signed with the Trump admin [2] by lobbyng with the right leverage points [3][4][5][6] and threatening the right GOP ruled states with tariffs [7][8].

Thanks to Trump, India has finally began reversing the brain drain, and with it bringing Big Tech [9], Big Pharma (already mentioned), Big Oil [10], and Wall Street [11] back.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...

[2] - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/02/unit...

[3] - https://www.trump.com/residential-real-estate-portfolio/trum...

[4] - https://www.trump.com/residential-real-estate-portfolio/trum...

[5] - https://www.trump.com/residential-real-estate-portfolio/trum...

[6] - https://www.trump.com/residential-real-estate-portfolio/trum...

[7] - https://www.daines.senate.gov/2026/01/20/daines-travels-to-i...

[8] - https://governor.iowa.gov/press-release/2025-09-16/gov-reyno...

[9] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/india-dra...

[10] - https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/big-oil-is-offshorin...

[11] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-11-11/trump-s-h...

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u/alephnerd

KarmaCake day12500January 8, 2019
About
Recovering Professional Policy Wonk. Former SWE, SE, and PM. Now VC.
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