You know they started with 83% in there and then orange man insisted they change the "8" to a "9".

> Tesla obviously can't give people long sub 1% loans and make a profit in 2025.

I think this is not the right way to look at it. Essentially, Tesla sells the car for a price that is higher than the sum of all the input costs (the margin). Say this margin is around $10k per car. If the factories have more inventory, they could give customers a $5k discount, but they could also sell it for the full price but give a sub 1% loan. They probably loan that money for about 3 to 5%. So they only take a hit of a few procent for 2 years meaning $60k * 0.04 * 0.04 = $4800. My point is that a low percentage loan is essentially the same as discount on the purchase price.

Do these continues price decreases mean that things look dire? Based on solely this information, not necessarily. Battery costs are a large part of the cost of the car, and battery costs are consistently coming down. This saves a few thousand dollars per year. So I expect prices to come down each year. That fact alone is not a problem.

Having said that, we know that Tesla's margins have consistently come down for the last 3 years, and we know that Chinese cars become more competitive each year. So things aren't looking great. But again, price declines are expected and not necessarily a problem. I would say market share is the most important metric to look at.

And even in Tokyo it only applies to metropolitan (roughly, state) workers, not the ward (roughly, city) governments.

According to the data below, there's anywhere from 33k to 161k metropolitan employees depending on where you draw the line.

https://www.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/tosei/hodohappyo/press/2024/01...

People bet a much bigger multiple in Asian countries. US real estate is cheap.

Not to mention, the incredible 30 year fixed mortgage.

I started as an engineering manager (CTO of a small startup) a few years ago; my life has changed a lot, and for every aspect you love and hate, I share the same feelings.

My additional advice here is to meditate. For real. Sit quietly long enough for your brain to switch off before making essential and impactful decisions that could harm your people.

In the beginning, you become a kind of parent-to-child genius. You have to accept them and also understand their ways. The more controls you put in place, the less control you will have, as they will attempt to jump around and oppose the unnecessary bureaucracy (I'll do the same, honestly).

My second advice is to always behave as if you are going to leave tomorrow. This will prepare your team and your peers and even improve your lifestyle.

The reverse holds too: I know more people with PhD's through climbing than any other area of my life that's intuitively nerdier.