tlyleung (u/tlyleung)

Extending Anthropic's Agent Workflows with Recursive Planning actamachina.com/posts/rec...

tlyleung commented on Revisiting the algorithm that changed horse race betting (2023) actamachina.com/posts/ann... · Posted by u/areoform

GreyZephyr · 3 months ago

Did you ever try extending it out to other methods of probability estimation other than the forms of regression? I have only skimmed your excellent article, but I think you are first calculating the average probabilities from a regression model and then minimizing the loss to calculate Harville corrections for place and show markets? Is that correct or am I missing something here? I guess I am curious if there has been any improvement on using regressions for combining the various initial odds as I don't really follow the literature anymore.

tlyleung · 3 months ago

Yes! There have been big improvements since then but they are beyond the scope of the post. I just wanted to reproduce the calculations in the paper using PyTorch.

Bill Benter subsequently replaced the multinomial logit model with a multinomial probit model, which assumes Normally distributed errors rather than errors that follow the Laplace distribution.

tlyleung commented on Revisiting the algorithm that changed horse race betting (2023) actamachina.com/posts/ann... · Posted by u/areoform

jeffreyrogers · 3 months ago

How did you choose the artworks for the artworks section of your site?

tlyleung · 3 months ago

It’s a hi-res artwork from Unsplash that I’ve sampled random croppings from.

tlyleung commented on Revisiting the algorithm that changed horse race betting (2023) actamachina.com/posts/ann... · Posted by u/areoform

fidotron · 3 months ago

Great write up. [am idiot]

tlyleung · 3 months ago

Sorry - to be clear this is just re-running the model detailed in Bill Benter’s 1995 paper (he uses the time period 1986-1993) on more recent time periods (1996-2003, 2006-2013, 2016-2023) using PyTorch.

tlyleung commented on Revisiting the algorithm that changed horse race betting (2023) actamachina.com/posts/ann... · Posted by u/areoform

tlyleung · 3 months ago

Author here - funny to see this posted after a few years. Happy to answer any questions!

Posted by u/tlyleung 6 months ago

Pokémon Go Maker Niantic in Talks to Sell Games Unit to Scopely bloomberg.com/news/articl...

tlyleung commented on Meta announces LlamaCon, its first generative AI dev conference on April 29 meta.com/blog/connect-202... · Posted by u/thoughtpeddler

tlyleung · 6 months ago

Dates are awfully close to ICLR, but I suppose the audiences don’t really overlap.

tlyleung commented on The Cantonese Scrolls – A Cantonese language learning mental RPG cantoscrolls.com/... · Posted by u/fearedbliss

tlyleung · 7 months ago

I'm thinking of improving my Cantonese by reading a 金庸 novel like 倚天屠龍記. Hoping to find an online resource similar to this website that has the traditional Chinese characters, Jyutping romanisation and translation all aligned, along with the spoken audio as well.

Posted by u/tlyleung 7 months ago

AIMO Progress Prize 1 actamachina.com/posts/aim...

Posted by u/tlyleung 7 months ago

Trump to impose 25% to 100% tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, impacting TSMC tomshardware.com/tech-ind...

u/tlyleung

KarmaCake day218September 13, 2012

About

Machine learning engineer based in Singapore with 8+ years of experience building machine learning products.

Studied CS at UCL (BSc) and Imperial (PhD).

timothyleung@gmail.com

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