Literally yesterday we had a post about GPT-5.2, which jumped 30% on ARC-AGI 2, 100% on AIME without tools, and a bunch of other impressive stats. A layman's (mine) reading of those numbers feels like the models continue to improve as fast as they always have. Then today we have people saying every iteration is further from AGI. It really perplexes me is how split-brain HN is on this topic.
HM is not a single person. Different people on HM have different opinions.