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throwaway8291 commented on Why Is the Stock Market Booming?   nytimes.com/2020/04/10/up... · Posted by u/martinlaz
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
My brief analysis tells me that there will be some grinding down in Q2 with a negative peak in Q3. While the virus seems to be "managed", the consequences of millions of people dropping out of the workforce in the first world is not that pronounced. We will see bank failures and maybe dozens of cascades, all leading to the point where someone has to stand up and swallow it.

Solid states go into deep debt today, previously failed states will chew on it for the decade to come.

throwaway8291 commented on Timely Dataflow in Fifteen Minutes [video]   youtube.com/watch?v=yOnPm... · Posted by u/mpweiher
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
I looked at the data flow paradigm a couple of years ago. Back then I thought that the difference to just a "ordinary" functions is not that big, and for performance (which is important for my data work), you do not want to deviate from the traditional way too much.

Anyone felt the same or can provide a real-world problem, where data flow is actually working better that other solutions?

throwaway8291 commented on SAP Graph: API Sandbox on preview   beta.graph.sap... · Posted by u/zxienin
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
Thanks SAP for letting me feel like it's 2010, when everyone fell in love with REST (again).
throwaway8291 commented on Theia: Cloud and Desktop IDE   theia-ide.org/... · Posted by u/jankeromnes
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
I've used Eclipse on and off and always found it to be a bit clunky. Unhelpful error messages coming from the fifty layers of abstraction you did not know about before.

Back in the days, I always preferred netbeans - it was just more of a product, less of an exercise in object-oriented abstractionism.

Today, I am a happy user of vim (and vscode, if I need to) - I left behind the heaps of design patterns, thankfully. What this feels like to me is a trying to jump on a train, that's long gone.

throwaway8291 commented on How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act   steveblank.com/2020/04/01... · Posted by u/weinzierl
philosophygeek · 5 years ago
We've had 10 years of frothiness in venture markets. Many employees under 30 don't even know what a downturn looks like. They're used to high pay, constant calls from recruiters, and venture capital flowing into their companies. Even the companies who flop, no big deal, just go down the street to the next company. I worry that that generation is going to have the most difficulty with these changes. They'll wonder why things are contracting, why difficult decisions need to be made, can't we just wait this one out...?

I've never seen anything like COVID-19. I lived through the dot-com bubble, watching friends who want from an IPO party to crying and packing up their car back to Iowa within 6-months. Tech contracted and survived. Then there was the 2008 financial crisis. In that case, the damage was spread out beyond tech centers. Capital markets dried up and life seemed very uncertain for awhile.

With COVID-19, we went from extreme prosperity to an unprecedented shutdown of global economies with massive uncertainty as to how long this will last. Every business will be affected, the vast majority of them negatively.

I really wonder whether everyone is prepared for what it means to live in scarcity instead of abundance.

throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
It's an artificial scarcity, though. We have the most productive technologies ever - we are just not very good to put a better part of them flow towards common good.

The amount of senseless applications and waste is staggering.

throwaway8291 commented on Planning and Managing Layoffs   a16z.com/2020/03/31/plann... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
frockington1 · 5 years ago
In return for helping the company build capital you were paid a monetary value in return. A quick solution to the problem you are presenting is to invest the money you were paid into other companies or start your own company so you too can have 'capital'.
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
I understand that it's a very broad spectrum.

However, what I am observing is that 'capital' gets its hand in any aspect of life, the formerly family owned coffee machine maker, lingerie producer and the outdoor specialist went through couple of private equity hands - for what? For injecting capital to trim down ops, expand, then get out of a position?

After watching hundreds of hours of investing conference videos and interviews there is one thing, that really got me: why is this field so sad? I believe it's because all they ever talk about what they "own". The cannot make, invent, heal, fight, cook, write, harvest or any other human activity - all they do is "own" something that is valuable to others.

Imagine kids playing in the playground and all the talk about is what each of them owns. They cannot read, write, play an instrument, tell jokes, do tricks, etc. - no, but they control those who can and are productive.

I am not sure why, but I'd rather have a kid with talents than one with lots of "assets" (even though in this world talent does not matter, if you've got the assets).

----

Warren Buffet was once asked by the audience, what you should do, if you have artistic talents and want to live them out, but you do not want to starve? He did not really care, understandably.

throwaway8291 commented on Planning and Managing Layoffs   a16z.com/2020/03/31/plann... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
Why pretend and cloud the idea, that the main reason a person has a "job" today is to accumulate capital for capital.

As long as this notion persists (which will be for many more decades I fear) power inequalities will just mean that some will suffer more (those who do not have resources in the first place).

Hey, you know, I am really sorry, but thanks for all the capital you helped us to accumulate - which we own and not you. Bye!

I imagine the most profound societal change will come from getting rid of this notion and the resulting reduction in power asymmetries.

throwaway8291 commented on Fauci: US can expect more than 100k Covid-19 deaths, millions of cases   techcrunch.com/2020/03/29... · Posted by u/ajaviaad
mirekrusin · 5 years ago
I'm not professional and my napkin/google calculation shows something closer to 327.2 million * 0.7 * 0.01 = two million two hundred ninety thousand four hundred deaths - is it stupid?
throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
No, not stupid. It's one scenario, but the time span is absent: do we reach 0.7 in three years or three months? At the current rate probably the latter, which might increase the 0.01 as well, because of a certain overwhelming of the health care system in the US (e.g. a young boy in California has not been treated because he could not pay, so he died).
throwaway8291 commented on Fauci: US can expect more than 100k Covid-19 deaths, millions of cases   techcrunch.com/2020/03/29... · Posted by u/ajaviaad
ohazi · 5 years ago
I haven't been shouting from the rooftops because I'm not an epidemiologist and don't really want to get into an argument, but none of the low/medium/high death estimates that I've seen have seemed plausible to me. The back-of-the-envelope math that I've been doing would put most of them about half an order of magnitude too low.

From what I can tell, the best-case death estimate in the US should be around 1-2 million, and the worst case should be around 5-10 million. Does this seem wildly off?

This is based on the varying death rates in other countries that have had controlled/mild/manageable outbreaks (e.g. South Korea, Singapore) vs. severe outbreaks (e.g. Italy, Iran). The overall death numbers also seem to change depending on how overrun the hospitals are (going from, e.g. 0.9% to ~3%+), national demographics, etc. I'm also assuming an eventual population infection rate of 40% - 70%.

I'd obviously be thrilled to be proven wrong, but I honestly don't understand how people are coming up with numbers that are so much more optimistic.

throwaway8291 · 5 years ago
Nobody knows what is coming, but I'm in the 1M+ camp as well. US is so ill-equipped plus administration is very aware, how devastating the economic consequences are even now (2T stimulus and infinite FED liquidity are already in effect today). Let this spread for two more weeks and the administration might loose their countenance and will declare: "we cannot save both the infected and our country, so we will save our country".

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KarmaCake day324October 5, 2019
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